行业周报 | 非银金融 外资机构座谈会召开，坚定金融市场改革决心 金融行业周报（2026/03/01） 核心结论 金融行业周涨跌幅跟踪：1）本周非银金融（申万）指数涨跌幅为-1.18%， 跑输沪深 300 指数 2.26pct。本周证券Ⅱ（申万）、保险Ⅱ（申万）、多元金 融指数涨跌幅分别为-0.39%、-3.74%、+3.90%。2）本周银行（申万）涨跌 幅为-0.92%，跑输沪深 300 指数 2.00pct。其中，国有行、股份行、城商行、 农商行本周涨跌幅分别为-1.67%、-0.57%、-0.70%、-0.72%。 投资观点：1）保险：本周保险Ⅱ(申万)涨跌幅为-3.74%，跑输沪深 300 指 数 4.82pct。本周保险板块深度调整，主要受前期获利了结、资金向成长赛 道迁移、政策财报真空期及海外 AI 负面报告情绪扰动影响。中期来看，保 险机构 2026 年增配权益趋势明确，为板块提供支撑，本次回调属短期交易 与情绪冲击。展望 2026 年，负债端居民"挪储"与分红险、银保渠道发力， 资产端险资持续入市提升贝塔属性，成本端负债成本改善，叠加经济复苏、 低估值高股息优势，板块估值修复动力充足，有望迎来 ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|证券Ⅱ 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 非银金融行业 AI 助力金融公司降本增效，板块波动后迎配置机遇 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Gr ade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-03-01 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [Table_Author] 分析师： 陈福 SAC 执证号：S0260517050001 SFC CE No. BOB667 0755-82535901 chenfu@gf.com.cn 分析师： 严漪澜 SAC 执证号：S0260524070005 0755-82544248 yanyilan@gf.com.cn 分析师： 唐关勇 SAC 执证号：S0260525070004 021-38003812 tangguanyong@gf.com.cn -10% -3% 4% 10% 17% 24% 02/25 05/25 07/25 10/25 12/25 02/26 非银金融 沪深300 请注意，严漪澜,唐关勇并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员 会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受 ...

智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，股票和证券投资基金是2026年保险机构普遍看好的境内投资 资产。债券方面，今年保险机构更看好高等级产业债、银行永续债及二级资本债以及可转债。多数保险 机构对2026年A股市场持较乐观态度，多数机构计划小幅增配A股。中长期看，长端利率企稳叠加资本 市场上行驱动资产端改善，存量负债成本迎来拐点，报行合一优化渠道成本，上市险企中长期利费差趋 势有望改善。 广发证券主要观点如下： 境外投资方面 港股是2026年保险机构最看好的境外投资品种，同时黄金投资和美股投资也受到保险机构较多关注。半 数保险资产管理机构计划小幅增配港股，四成保险公司计划维持现有港股配置比例。 上市险企权益弹性持续提升，中长期利费差趋势有望改善 大类资产配置方面 股票和证券投资基金是2026年保险机构普遍看好的境内投资资产，部分机构意愿适度或微幅增加股票投 资，而银行存款和债券的配置比例预计与2025年保持持平。 债券市场方面 多数保险机构对2026年债券市场整体持中性态度，整体久期策略以基本维持现有不变为主。利率债方 面，预计10年期国债收益率将处于1.8%-1.9%区间，30年期国债收益率将集中在2.2% ...

Core Viewpoint - The "AI + Finance" cooperation conference held in Hong Kong highlights the significant opportunities for collaboration between Guangxi, Hong Kong, and ASEAN countries in the realm of artificial intelligence and financial services [1][2]. Group 1: Event Overview - The conference featured speeches from key figures including Chen Gang, Secretary of the Guangxi Autonomous Region, and Sun Yu, Vice Chairman and President of Bank of China (Hong Kong) [1]. - Representatives from various financial institutions showcased the latest applications of "AI + Finance" [1]. Group 2: Strategic Insights - Chen Gang emphasized that artificial intelligence is reshaping the global economy and financial industry, and Guangxi aims to leverage its position as a gateway to ASEAN for AI cooperation [2]. - The conference aimed to establish platforms for cross-border data flow, financial collaboration, and the creation of a financial corpus for ASEAN countries [2]. Group 3: Collaborative Agreements - A series of cooperation agreements were signed among Guangxi, Hong Kong, and ASEAN financial institutions focusing on AI and financial service innovations [3]. - The agreements include initiatives for cross-border settlement and the establishment of a financial technology strategic cooperation framework [3].

2月26日，由自治区政府主办的"东盟门户·湾区腹地—2026广西（香港）推介会"在香港举行，共叙 情谊、共商合作。自治区党委书记、自治区人大常委会主任陈刚，香港特别行政区行政长官李家超出席 活动并致辞，共同见证相关协议签约。中央政府驻港联络办副主任张勇，自治区政协副主席、自治区党 委秘书长周异决，外交部驻香港特别行政区特派员公署副特派员李永胜出席活动。 推介会上还举行项目签约仪式，在陈刚、李家超等领导共同见证下，自治区港澳事务办公室和香港 特别行政区政府民政及青年事务局签署《桂港两地青年交流交往合作备忘录》、自治区大数据发展局和 香港特别行政区政府数字政策办公室签署《桂港人工智能合作备忘录》等，当天共签约项目24个，涉及 人工智能、跨境金融、经贸投资、园区合作等领域。推介会前，陈刚等还会见重要商协会和企业代表， 参观"AI出海"主题展区。 香港行政会议召集人叶刘淑仪，中国旅游集团董事长、香港中国企业协会会长王海民，以及香港特 别行政区政府有关部门、国际调解院等国际组织、商协会的有关代表和自治区有关厅局的负责同志，华 润集团、招商局集团、中国太平保险集团、紫荆文化集团、香港中旅国际投资有限公司等央企负责同 志， ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that insurance assets are expected to steadily increase their allocation to equities in 2026, while maintaining their duration strategy unchanged [6] - The survey conducted by the China Banking and Insurance Asset Management Association reflects the industry's expectations regarding market trends and allocation strategies for 2026 [6] Asset Allocation - In terms of major asset allocation, stocks and securities investment funds are generally favored by insurance institutions for domestic investments in 2026, with some institutions planning to slightly increase their stock investments [6] - The allocation ratios for bank deposits and bonds are expected to remain stable compared to 2025 [6] - Most insurance institutions hold a neutral outlook on the bond market for 2026, with the overall duration strategy expected to remain unchanged [6] - The yield on 10-year government bonds is anticipated to be in the range of 1.8%-1.9%, while 30-year government bonds are expected to yield between 2.2%-2.4% [6] - Over half of the insurance institutions predict that the yield center for high-grade credit bonds will be around 2.0%-2.5%, with credit spreads expected to show a fluctuating trend [6] A-Share Market Outlook - Most insurance institutions maintain an optimistic view of the A-share market for 2026, with plans to slightly increase their allocation to A-shares [6] - The sectors favored include technology, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, computers, communications, pharmaceuticals, and basic chemicals, with a focus on themes such as semiconductors, defense, AI, robotics, and high-dividend stocks [6] Overseas Investment - Hong Kong stocks are the most favored overseas investment option for insurance institutions in 2026, with half of the asset management institutions planning to slightly increase their allocation to Hong Kong stocks [6] - Gold and US stocks are also receiving considerable attention from insurance institutions [6] Company Recommendations - The report suggests that the insurance sector's equity elasticity is expected to continue improving, with a favorable long-term trend for the insurance premium difference [6] - Specific companies recommended for investment include China Ping An (A/H), China Life (A/H), China Taiping (H), New China Life (A/H), China Pacific Insurance (A/H), China People’s Insurance Group (H), and AIA Group (H) [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) based on the recovery of new business growth, reduced interest rate sensitivity, and prudent actuarial assumptions [5][30]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the valuation of Chinese insurance companies is expected to improve, drawing comparisons with AIA Group's strong performance since its listing. AIA's embedded value (PEV) multiple was approximately 1.48 times at the end of 2025, indicating high growth potential and lower sensitivity to interest rates, which could benefit the valuation of Chinese insurers [5][6]. - The new business value (NBV) of Chinese life insurance companies is recovering rapidly, driven by improved distribution channels and product offerings, with expectations for continued growth in 2026 [5][13]. - Effective asset-liability duration management and the transformation towards participating insurance have reduced the sensitivity of Chinese insurers' values to interest rates, which is favorable for valuation [15][17]. - Prudent adjustments to actuarial assumptions have brought Chinese insurers' assumptions closer to those of AIA, enhancing the credibility of their valuations [22][30]. Summary by Sections Section 1: AIA's Performance and Valuation - AIA has shown strong stock performance since its listing, with a PEV multiple of approximately 1.48 times at the end of 2025, indicating a favorable outlook for valuation improvements in Chinese insurers [5][6]. Section 2: Recovery of New Business and Growth Indicators - Chinese life insurance companies are experiencing a rapid recovery in new business growth, with NBV for AIA increasing by 18% year-on-year to USD 4.314 billion in the first three quarters of 2025. The NBV for 2024 was approximately 113% of the 2019 figure, indicating strong growth potential [8][13]. - Major Chinese insurers are expected to see NBV growth of 30%-80% in 2025, with positive growth in CSM for China Life and Ping An in the first half of 2025 [13][18]. Section 3: Interest Rate Sensitivity and Actuarial Assumptions - The sensitivity of Chinese insurers' values to interest rates has decreased due to effective duration management and a successful shift towards participating insurance. For instance, AIA's NBV only decreased by 1.9% with a 50 basis point drop in interest rates [15][17]. - Chinese insurers have made prudent adjustments to their actuarial assumptions, aligning them more closely with AIA's, which enhances the reliability of their valuations. For example, China Life's investment return assumption has been adjusted to 4% from 5% [22][30].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [21]. Core Insights - The insurance sector's asset management balance reached approximately 38.5 trillion yuan by the end of Q4 2025, reflecting a year-to-date growth of 15.70% [2][4]. - The average comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio for insurance companies stands at 181.1%, with life insurance companies at 169.3% and property insurance companies at 243.5% [2]. - The industry is experiencing a shift in dividend insurance products, with a notable decrease in the preset interest rate to 1.25%, down from the previous cap of 1.75% [2]. - The overall premium income for the industry in 2025 is projected to be 6.12 trillion yuan, with a high fund conversion rate of 85% [4]. Summary by Sections Asset Management - As of Q4 2025, the asset management balance of insurance companies is nearly 38.5 trillion yuan, with life insurance companies holding 34.66 trillion yuan and property insurance companies 2.42 trillion yuan [2][4]. - The fund conversion rate for life insurance companies is exceptionally high at 108%, while property insurance companies have a much lower rate of 11% [4]. Equity Allocation - The allocation of equity and fund assets in the industry reached 5.70 trillion yuan, accounting for approximately 15.4% of total assets, maintaining a historical high [5]. - The stock assets alone amount to 3.73 trillion yuan, representing 10.1% of total assets, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the insurance sector is currently in a correction phase, primarily influenced by liquidity conditions around the Spring Festival [5]. - The report recommends specific companies for investment, including China Pacific Insurance, China Life Insurance, and New China Life Insurance, with respective PEV valuations [6][10].

一线慰问：组织凝聚力是发展根基 人保集团党委班子走访子公司、基层支公司及科技保障岗位，太平集团领导跨越香港、深圳、上海、北京四地，慰问覆盖内勤、外勤营销员及后勤工作人 员。全方位的一线慰问，由保险行业特性决定，是企业夯实组织凝聚力的必然选择。 （太平集团尹兆君、李可东、那艳芳等领导在香港职场给干部员工、营销员和物业、食堂工作人员拜年） 保险行业兼具人力密集、服务密集、风控密集的特点，业务开展需后台专业支撑、一线躬身实践，更离不开后勤稳定保障。一线员工是保险产品与服务的 直接载体，也是企业与客户的核心纽带，其工作直接影响企业品牌口碑与市场根基。 从企业管理角度，一线慰问是构建情感激励与组织认同的重要方式。依据组织行为学"心理契约"理论，企业对员工的关注与关怀是维系隐性契约的关键。 开工首日的慰问，打破管理层级壁垒，联结企业发展愿景与员工个人价值，转化为工作动力。在行业竞争激烈、员工压力较大的背景下，此举能有效降低 流失率，提升团队归属感与战斗力，而强大的组织凝聚力，正是保险企业应对市场变化、实现战略目标的核心根基。 发展期许："十五五"开局之年的行业使命与机遇 （人保集团党委书记、董事长丁向群看望慰问一线干部员 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [21]. Core Insights - The insurance sector's total asset allocation reached approximately 38.5 trillion yuan by the end of Q4 2025, reflecting a year-to-date growth of 15.7%, with a net increase of over 5 trillion yuan throughout the year [2][4]. - The average comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio for insurance companies stands at 181.1%, with life insurance companies at 169.3% and property insurance companies at 243.5% [2]. - The industry is experiencing a shift in dividend insurance products, with a notable decrease in the preset interest rate to 1.25%, down from the previous cap of 1.75% [2]. - The overall premium income for the industry in 2025 is projected to be 6.12 trillion yuan, with a high fund conversion rate of 85% [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The insurance index decreased by 2.52%, underperforming the market by 2.88 percentage points, with significant variations in individual stock performances [1]. Asset Allocation - The allocation of equity and fund assets in the insurance sector reached 5.70 trillion yuan, accounting for approximately 15.4% of total assets, maintaining a historical high [5]. - The stock assets alone amounted to 3.73 trillion yuan, representing 10.1% of total assets, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [5]. Company Performance and Valuation - The estimated PEV (Price to Embedded Value) for major life insurance companies is as follows: China Life at 0.89x, New China Life at 0.85x, Ping An at 0.78x, and China Pacific at 0.69x [6]. - The recommended order for investment in major companies is China Pacific, Ping An, China Life H, and China Property Insurance [6]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that dividend insurance will attract household savings during the interest rate decline cycle, supporting growth in new premium income and net profit value (NBV) for life insurance [5]. - The long-term interest rates are expected to stabilize and rise, which may positively influence the PEV towards 1x [5].