2025年，二手车市场用2010.8万辆的年交易量，为国内汽车市场的规模扩张时代画上句点。站在2000万辆的新起点，中国二手车行业不仅要看到过去的成 绩，更要看到当下的变化与未来的机遇。增速的连年回落、新能源二手车的快速崛起、竞争格局的悄然变化，都在告诫着所有二手车从业者，行业真正的变 革刚刚拉开帷幕。 告别"散户"时代 规模化、品牌化趋势明显 据中国汽车流通协会副秘书长郎学红介绍，年交易2000万辆的成绩之下，不仅是二手车市场规模的不断扩大，更是二手车行业市场格局的持续变化，独立车 商和平台的规模化发展格外凸显。 2025年，多家头部二手车商、二手车平台加快布局连锁经营，二手车市场品牌化发展趋势日渐明显。其中，卡泰驰开放加盟规模化拓展，线下直营及加盟门 店累计已突破100家，单店月销从100辆跃升至300~500辆，实现2025年全年共交付车辆6.5万辆，在库车源1.5万余辆，营收GMV（商品交易总额）超180亿 元。帅车则聚焦超级门店线下布局，在杭州、郑州等多地先后打造二手车品牌MALL。其杭州超级门店单月销量便突破3900辆，全年销量超2.5万辆。 与此同时，多家二手车平台也在加速线下门店的落地。优信先 ...

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2026年1月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國永達汽車服務控股有限公司 (於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司) 呈交日期: 2026年2月5日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 03669 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 2,500,000,000 | HKD | | 0.01 HKD | | 25,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | HKD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 2,500,000,000 | HKD | | 0.01 HKD | | 25,000,000 | 本月底法定/註 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report discusses the impact of rising raw material costs on passenger car manufacturers, particularly focusing on the effects of copper, aluminum, and lithium prices on vehicle production costs [5][8][11][14] - It highlights that the cost increase for electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) is significantly influenced by the prices of copper and lithium, with estimated cost increases of approximately 2,300 RMB for EVs and 1,600 RMB for PHEVs due to copper price hikes, and 3,200 RMB for EVs and 1,500 RMB for PHEVs due to lithium price increases [5][11] - The report quantifies the cost impact on various manufacturers, indicating that companies like Chery, Geely, and Great Wall Motors experience relatively smaller increases in average vehicle costs due to their sales structure and the types of vehicles they produce [15][17] - It outlines five strategies that manufacturers can employ to mitigate the impact of rising raw material costs, including cost reductions through enhanced features, annual cost reductions, technological advancements, scale effects, and structural adjustments [22][23] Summary by Sections Section 1: Impact of Raw Material Price Increases - The report estimates that the increase in copper prices will raise the production costs of fuel vehicles, EVs, and PHEVs by approximately 800 RMB, 2,300 RMB, and 1,600 RMB respectively, while aluminum price increases will add about 700 RMB, 900 RMB, and 900 RMB to the respective vehicle types [5][8] - Lithium price increases are projected to raise costs by 3,200 RMB for EVs and 1,500 RMB for PHEVs, assuming a price of 160,000 RMB per ton [11][14] Section 2: Cost Pressure by Manufacturer - The report analyzes the cost pressure on manufacturers based on their sales structure, concluding that companies like Chery, Geely, and Great Wall Motors face smaller increases in average vehicle costs due to their diverse product lines and sales strategies [15][17] Section 3: Strategies to Mitigate Cost Increases - Manufacturers are expected to implement various strategies to counteract the impact of rising raw material costs, including: 1. Enhancing features while maintaining competitive pricing 2. Achieving annual cost reductions of around 2% 3. Utilizing technological advancements to lower costs 4. Leveraging scale effects to dilute fixed costs 5. Adjusting product structures to focus on higher-end models and exports [22][23] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a "shelf-style" investment approach, recommending attention to various companies within the passenger vehicle chain, including Geely, BYD, Chery, and others for potential investment opportunities [25]

Market Overview - Hong Kong stocks continued to lead, closing up 0.51% with a trading volume of 332 billion [1] - The FOMC meeting minutes indicated that the federal funds rate target range remains at 3.5% to 3.75%, with a voting result of 10 to 2 against a rate cut [1] - Oil prices are rising due to ongoing tensions in Iran, with WTI crude touching $65 per barrel, up 2.83%, marking a new high since September 2025 [1] Gold Market - International gold prices reached a historical high, with London gold nearing $5,600, leading to a rise in domestic gold jewelry prices to around 1,700 yuan per gram [2] - Despite the price increase, gold retail stocks did not see a corresponding rise, with concerns about potential profit-taking if prices decline [2] Commodities and Metals - Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange approached $14,000 per ton, a historical high, benefiting companies like Jiangxi Copper, which rose over 6% [3] - Nickel resources are rebounding, with Zhongwei New Materials securing significant nickel ore supply and establishing a nickel raw material industrial base in Indonesia [3] Real Estate Sector - The Chinese government is encouraging local policies to digest existing real estate stock, leading to a surge in real estate stocks, with companies like Agile Group rising nearly 41% [4] - Real estate brokerage firms also saw gains, with Beike rising over 7% [4] Consumer Goods - The liquor market is experiencing price increases, with Moutai's original box price rising to 1,610 yuan per bottle [4] - There are rumors of Kweichow Moutai participating in SpaceX's Series A financing, which the company denied, yet it contributed to a surge in liquor stocks [5] Financial Performance - Dongfang Zhenxuan reported a 5.7% increase in total revenue to 2.3 billion yuan and a net profit of 239 million yuan, up 14.5% [6] - Nine Dragons Paper expects a profit of 2.15 billion to 2.25 billion yuan for the six months ending December 31, 2025, a significant increase from 680 million yuan the previous year [6] Automotive Sector - The State Council released a plan to accelerate the development of service consumption in the automotive sector, which is expected to benefit automotive dealers like Meidong Automotive and Zhongsheng Holdings [7] Individual Stock Highlights - Sunny Optical Technology expects a net profit of approximately 4.589 billion to 4.723 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 70% to 75% [8] - The growth is attributed to high-end smartphone camera specifications and improved product mix, despite a recent decline in stock price due to fluctuations in smartphone demand [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report indicates a transition from "stable volume and slow price" to "price increase and stable volume" for the automotive industry in 2026 [6][16] - The domestic demand for passenger vehicles is expected to show positive growth in 2026, supported by policies such as scrapping and replacement subsidies [27][28] - The report highlights that the average selling price (ASP) of passenger vehicles is projected to increase, with a notable rise in ASP observed in December 2025 [16][20] Summary by Sections 1. Passenger Vehicle Sales and Market Dynamics - In December 2025, domestic passenger vehicle sales reached 2.278 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4% but a month-on-month increase of 13.6% [16] - The total sales for 2025 were 23.052 million units, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase of 0.6% [16] - The report notes that December's performance was significantly below seasonal norms, attributed to the suspension of scrapping subsidies in some regions [16] 2. ASP Trends and Market Expectations - The ASP for passenger vehicles in 2025 showed a year-on-year decline of 2.1%, with December 2025 ASP increasing by 13.7% compared to the previous year [16][20] - The report anticipates that the continuation of scrapping policies will enhance the sales of mid-to-high-end vehicles, contributing to price increases [27] 3. Inventory and Supply Chain Considerations - As of December 2025, the inventory of passenger vehicles stood at 4.708 million units, with a dynamic inventory-to-sales ratio of 2.48 [40] - The report suggests that short-term inventory risks are manageable, as leading domestic manufacturers may adjust production based on current demand [40] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on various companies within the passenger vehicle supply chain, including Geely, BYD, and Xpeng Motors for growth potential [6][27] - It also highlights companies like Great Wall Motors and SAIC Group as having potential turning points in their performance [6][27]

Group 1 - Yongda Automotive shows strong recovery potential in luxury car dealership performance, supported by cash flow and dividend yield attractiveness [1] - The company benefits from BMW's support in new car gross profit, alongside the clearing of inefficient dealerships in the luxury car sector [1] - The new energy business is expected to contribute significantly, with a projected net cash flow exceeding 1.1 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [1] Group 2 - Tianzhun Technology's core business is experiencing strong growth, but the industry faces cost pressures due to memory shortages [2] - The company focuses on intelligent driving and embodied intelligence, with significant growth momentum [2] - The shortage of high-end DDR5 memory and rising DRAM prices are impacting the cost structure for automotive manufacturers [2] Group 3 - Longsheng Technology has significant untapped potential in the commercial aerospace sector, with its subsidiary positioned in precision welding components [3] - The traditional business remains a core pillar of performance, while the robotics segment has clear long-term growth logic [3] - Yinxun shares are expected to see substantial market value elasticity due to the data center liquid cooling module as a core growth driver [3] Group 4 - Fuda shares have issued convertible bonds, signaling positive developments, with strong performance expected in 2026 due to scarce production capacity [3] - The company is involved in the drafting of national standards for robotic components, with overseas client validation progressing [3] - Tiancheng Self-Control is positioned as a key player in the low-altitude economy, with significant market share potential as the industry matures [3]

2026 年 01 月 21 日 叶传动/分别 邵翼 A0230524120001 shaoyi@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 本期投资后示: O 永达汽车：豪车经销商业绩触底反弹确定性强，现金流与股息率具备吸引力。公司作为 宝马渠道核心豪车经销商，依托主机厂盈利扶持，经营周期底部复苏信号明确。一方 面，宝马等主机厂保障经销商新车毛利，叠加行业低效门店出清，BBA 等豪车车企亏损 见底；另一方面，新能源业务贡献增量，新车毛利率可观，2025年渠道上量叠加华为系 品牌起量，该业务盈利空间广阔。公司 2025 上半年净现金流超 11 亿元,配置吸引力突 出；后续宝马车型周期下半年落地，业绩弹性拐点将进一步明确，整体观点偏乐观。 相关研究 《整车出海、机器人预期强化;同时关注 业绩确定性白马 -- 2026/1/12- 2026/1/18 汽车周报》 2026/01/19 证券分析师 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 联系人 天成、福达 周一刻钟，大事快评（W141） 看好 O 天准科技：核心业务高增确定性强，内存短缺引发行业成本压力预警。公 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, indicating an "Overweight" rating, suggesting that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [2][12]. Core Insights - Yongda Automotive shows strong recovery signals with cash flow and dividend yield attractiveness, benefiting from support from manufacturers like BMW, and is expected to see significant performance improvements in 2025 [3]. - Tianzhun Technology's core business is experiencing robust growth, but the industry faces cost pressures due to memory shortages, particularly in high-end DDR5 memory [4]. - Longsheng Technology has significant untapped potential in the commercial aerospace sector, with a solid market position in satellite components and a clear growth trajectory in its robotics business [5]. - Yinlun Technology is positioned to benefit from the growth of data center liquid cooling solutions, with expected significant market elasticity by 2027 [5]. - Fuda Co., Ltd. has issued convertible bonds, indicating positive signals for business certainty and valuation support, with a focus on expanding production capacity [6]. - Tiancai Control is strategically positioned in the low-altitude economy, with ongoing efforts to secure key clients and certifications, which could lead to substantial market share gains [6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Yongda Automotive - The company is a key dealer for BMW, showing strong recovery signals with a projected net cash flow exceeding 1.1 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, supported by manufacturer subsidies and a reduction in inefficient dealerships [3]. Tianzhun Technology - The company focuses on intelligent driving and embodied intelligence, with strong growth momentum, but faces challenges from memory supply shortages impacting vehicle production costs [4]. Longsheng Technology - The company has significant growth potential in the commercial aerospace sector, with a strong foothold in satellite components and a clear growth strategy in its robotics business [5]. Yinlun Technology - The company is focusing on data center liquid cooling modules, with expectations for significant market growth by 2027, while also being a key supplier in the robotics sector [5]. Fuda Co., Ltd. - The issuance of convertible bonds at a conversion price of 17.5 yuan signals positive business prospects, with a focus on expanding production capacity and addressing market concerns regarding client structure [6]. Tiancai Control - The company is well-positioned in the low-altitude economy, actively working on client acquisition and technical certifications, which could lead to significant market share in the future [6].

Core Viewpoint - Yongda Automobile (03669) announced a share buyback plan, indicating confidence in its stock value and future prospects [1] Group 1: Share Buyback Details - The company will repurchase 789,000 shares at a total cost of HKD 1.2882 million [1] - The buyback price per share ranges from HKD 1.61 to HKD 1.65 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Yongda Automobile (03669) announced a share buyback plan, indicating confidence in its stock value and future prospects [1] Group 1: Share Buyback Details - The company will repurchase 789,000 shares at a total cost of HKD 1.2882 million [1] - The buyback price per share ranges from HKD 1.61 to HKD 1.65 [1]