Company Operations - Nyrstar, a zinc and lead smelter acquired by Trafigura Group in 2019, faced a fine of €80,000 (approximately $93.8 thousand) [1] Legal and Compliance - The fine was imposed for allegedly providing "misleading information" regarding its liquidity base prior to restructuring [1]

Group 1 - Perpetua Resources is in discussions with several mining companies, including Glencore and Trafigura, to establish partnerships for antimony processing in the US, aiming to secure a steady supply for domestic consumers [1][5] - The company plans to issue a request for proposal (RFP) to evaluate the technical and economic viability of off-site processing facilities, focusing on production capacity, financial stability, environmental performance, and transport reliability [2] - The RFP is expected to be issued in the coming weeks, with a final decision anticipated by Q4 2025, following a due diligence review [3] Group 2 - Perpetua Resources has received conditional approval from the US Forest Service to begin developing the Stibnite Gold Project, which is contingent on financial assurance bonding [4] - Antimony is classified as a critical mineral by the US Department of the Interior, essential for national security and used in manufacturing applications such as bullets and solar panels [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for Shanghai Lead is "Volatility", with a price range of [16,500, 17,800], featuring narrow - range fluctuations and occasional small - to medium - scale market movements [3]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4 2025, the shortage of lead concentrates and waste batteries will intensify. Domestic demand is expected to improve periodically under the background of policy - boosted consumption, while export demand may continue to be under pressure. The oscillation center of Shanghai Lead may move up, and there may be small - to medium - scale upward trends as consumption improves. The volatility may increase compared to Q3, and it is safer to take long positions at low prices. Attention should be paid to the production strategies of large enterprises [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Q3 2025 Lead Price Review - In July, lead prices rose first and then fell. Shanghai Lead increased significantly due to anti - cut - throat competition sentiment and pre - trading of improved demand, but domestic demand was later disproven, and anti - cut - throat competition had limited impact on basic non - ferrous commodities. LME Lead was pressured by a stronger US dollar, and both domestic and overseas lead prices dropped back to pre - increase levels [6]. - In August, the 0 - 3 cash of the outer market remained deeply in contango. The domestic lead market had weak supply and demand. Falling lead prices and tight raw materials intensified the pressure on the operating rate of secondary smelters, and demand was even weaker. With low capital attention, both domestic and overseas lead prices fluctuated at low levels [6]. - In September, the bottom - building of lead prices ended. As the traditional peak season approached, the raw material and finished - product inventories of downstream battery factories continued to decline, and lead prices rose slightly in advance. With the approaching of the double - festival holiday, downstream enterprises stocked up in advance, and market transactions improved as lead prices rose. The fundamental support pushed the operating center of lead prices up from 16,800 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton [6]. 2. Lead Concentrate Supply Overseas - In Q3 2025, overseas lead concentrate production was lower than expected. Although project profits were sufficient, factors such as lower - than - expected output from sample mining enterprises, irreversible decline in mine grades, long - term impact of geological factors, time required for equipment renewal, and increased probability of La Nina led to the annual overseas lead concentrate increment dropping from 700,000 to 0 tons. There is no obvious expectation of improvement in Q4 [7][11]. Domestic - From January to August, the cumulative domestic lead concentrate output was 1.098 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.7%, mainly due to the output release of new projects such as Yinzhushan and Kangjiawan. The main reasons for the decline in TC were the high operating rate of primary smelters, the reflection of the supply - demand relationship of high - grade concentrates in TC, and the weak bargaining power in spot transactions due to fewer long - term contracts signed by smelters. In Q4, Huoshaoyun may release marginal increments, and the domestic mine increment in 2025 is expected to reach +1.2 million tons. The import of Red Dog lead concentrate will share tariff costs equally between domestic and foreign parties, and the import of lead concentrates may decline seasonally in Q4. With primary smelters maintaining a relatively high operating rate, TC may continue to be under pressure [20]. 3. Primary Lead Production Overseas - From January to August, the cumulative overseas primary lead output was 864,000 tons (YoY - 1.4%). Due to tight raw materials, the reduction in overseas primary lead production increased. There was a significant reduction in Kazzinc 3rd Party under Glencore, and the incremental production from restarted and ramping - up projects was not obvious [24]. Domestic - From January to August, the cumulative domestic primary lead output was 2.542 million tons (YoY + 8.2%), mainly due to the restoration of raw material supply, the widening of the price difference between refined and secondary lead, and the increase in production profits (including by - products such as small metals). The operating rate of primary lead in Q3 was generally at a high level. Overall, the domestic surplus (+193,000 tons) can still cover the overseas reduction (-13,000 tons). However, smelting profits are approaching the break - even point and declining, and with the downward pressure on TC in the future, smelting profits may be under pressure. The production of primary lead in Q4 may decline quarter - on - quarter [24]. 4. Secondary Lead Production - From January to August, the cumulative secondary refined lead output was 2.08 million tons (YoY - 3%), and the operating rate of secondary lead remained at a low level of 30%, which may drop below 25% in September. The production cuts of secondary lead smelters mostly follow the raw material consumption rhythm rather than profit changes. The scrap battery scrap volume in Q3 did not improve significantly. Although recyclers sold off stocks multiple times during the lead price decline, it had limited effect on replenishing smelters' raw material inventories. As lead prices rebounded, the profits of secondary lead smelters in October were restored, and the operating rate may increase [44]. - The operating rate of secondary lead smelters in Q4 may increase quarter - on - quarter but will still be highly volatile. The replacement demand may be stimulated by trade - in subsidies, new national standards, and consumer festivals after October, but the annual output is expected to be lower than expected, and the year - on - year growth rate is revised down to - 2%. After years of continuous losses, the cash flow of many secondary lead plants has been under pressure for two and a half years, and attention should be paid to the possible exit of secondary lead production capacity [44]. 5. Initial Demand - In Q3, lead demand was generally weak. In the battery field, the demand for new automotive batteries was neutral to weak, and the replacement demand was significantly lower than expected. The traditional peak seasons for electric two - wheelers and tricycles did not materialize. The export demand for batteries was also weakened by tariffs and anti - dumping measures, while the demand in the energy storage field continued to perform well [46]. - The participation of large enterprises in the futures market has decreased, and there is a phenomenon of buying on rising prices. The finished - product inventory of large enterprises has been transferred to dealers, and the finished - product inventory has undergone a round of destocking. The production orders of lead - carbon battery manufacturers in the energy storage field are abundant [48]. 6. Terminal Demand Electric Two - Wheelers - From January to August, the cumulative production of electric bicycles in Jiangsu and Tianjin increased by 101.5% and 14.7% year - on - year respectively, and the growth rate expanded compared to the first half of the year. The cumulative production of two - wheeled and three - wheeled motorcycles increased by 10.6% and 4.4% year - on - year respectively, and the growth rate narrowed compared to the first half of the year. The replacement demand in Q3 was weak. In Q4, the replacement demand is expected to strengthen periodically due to factors such as trade - in policies, upcoming Double Eleven promotions, and the implementation of new national standards [54]. Automobiles - From January to August, the domestic automobile production was 21.027 million vehicles (YoY + 12.6%), with new energy vehicles increasing by 37.1% and fuel vehicles decreasing by 2%. The export increased by 13.8% year - on - year, but the export growth rate may slow down in Q4. Considering the impact of lithium substitution for lead, the annual lead consumption growth rate in the automotive field is revised down to - 1.8% [59]. Energy Storage - Lead - carbon batteries are still irreplaceable in the data center energy storage field. As of the end of September, the production schedules of some energy storage manufacturers have reached March next year, and the demand for lead - carbon batteries continues to grow strongly. The lead consumption growth rate in this sector is revised up from 8% to 10% [59]. 7. Export Demand - From 2020 - 2023, the average annual compound growth rate of lead battery exports was 10%. From January to August, the export of starting - type batteries increased by 0.2% year - on - year, while the export of other types decreased by 11.5% year - on - year, and the decline further expanded. The main reasons are price ratio suppression, anti - dumping measures, and weak non - automotive demand (destocking) [64]. - There is no obvious driver for the recovery of overseas lead consumption, and the domestic secondary production cost support is still strong. The internal - external price ratio is difficult to repair significantly. With the influence of trade protectionism and battery manufacturers going global, exports may still be under pressure, and the annual export demand growth rate is revised down from flat to - 1% [64]. 8. Inventory - The LME lead inventory is still at a seasonal high even after destocking, and the 0 - 3 spot has been in deep contango for a long time [69]. - In Q3, the lead elements concentrated in the initial downstream and terminal consumption fields were slowly consumed, and the lead elements in the intermediate links of the industrial chain have decreased. However, the medium - to - long - term trend still depends on future demand. Before the double - festivals, downstream enterprises stocked up normally, and potential delivery risks should be警惕 under low inventory levels [69]. - The import window for lead ingots may open intermittently in Q4. Based on this expectation, it is recommended to pay attention to the range - trading opportunities of the internal - external price ratio [69]. 9. Supply - Demand Balance - The revised balance sheet shows that the annual shortage level has decreased. The supply of primary lead may face a marginal tightening of imported ores in Q4, and TC has downward pressure, with a possibility of limited production cuts by smelters. The replacement demand in the secondary lead sector may improve periodically in Q4, but waste batteries will still be in short supply. The operating rate of secondary lead smelters may improve quarter - on - quarter but will remain highly volatile [71]. - The annual terminal demand growth rate is expected to turn negative, mainly due to the possible over - expected lithium substitution for lead, the pressure on both domestic sales and exports of automobiles, the dependence of electric vehicle replacement demand on policy stimuli, the strong consumption in the energy storage field, and the continued pressure on exports. The demand in Q4 may improve periodically [72].

Group 1: Market Dynamics - The price of germanium has surged to $5,000 per kilogram, five times higher than the $1,000 per kg price in early 2023, marking a 14-year high [2] - The supply crunch from China has led to panic among customers seeking germanium, significantly impacting supply chains for Western military systems [1][2] Group 2: Geopolitical Context - China dominates the global market for critical minerals, creating dependency for Western defense manufacturers amid strained bilateral relations [3] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that concentrated supply and China's export controls increase the risk of "painful disruptions" in the market [3] Group 3: Industry Responses - Lockheed Martin has signed a strategic deal with Korea Zinc to procure germanium smelted outside of China, North Korea, Iran, and Russia, ensuring priority rights for procurement [5] - Nyrstar, a subsidiary of Trafigura, is evaluating a project to build a germanium and gallium recovery and processing facility in Tennessee, the only primary zinc producer in the U.S. [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's potential rate - cut in September and the weakening US dollar are favorable for risk assets, but the uncertainty of the Fed's personnel changes may disrupt market risk appetite. The domestic economy has the basis to achieve the annual growth target, and mild stimulus measures are expected to be introduced [2][87]. - Zinc concentrate supply is steadily recovering, with the growth of domestic ore processing fees slowing down and the acceleration of the recovery of imported ore processing fees. In September, due to more refinery maintenance plans, refined zinc production is expected to decrease by 2.62% to 60.98 tons, and zinc ingot imports still face large losses [2][87]. - Zinc demand is differentiated. Infrastructure construction is expected to speed up, and the issuance of the third batch of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds supports the domestic sales of durable goods. The delay of Sino - US tariff policies eases the export pressure of related products, and the concentrated grid - connection of deep - sea projects promotes the development of the wind power industry. However, the real estate market is weak, photovoltaic demand is overdrawn, and galvanized sheets are affected by anti - dumping, which will drag down consumption [2][87]. - Overall, the Fed's potential rate - cut and domestic economic support policies provide support for zinc prices. With the reduction of supply pressure and the approaching of the traditional peak demand season, zinc prices are expected to stabilize and rebound in September. Attention should be paid to whether the improvement in consumption can be effectively realized [2][87][88] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Zinc Market Review - In August, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc fluctuated in a narrow range at a low level, with a monthly decline of 0.92%. London zinc's center of gravity moved slightly upward, with a monthly increase of 1.88% [6]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 US Situation - The US economy is mixed. Employment is cooling, inflation is moderate, and the Fed's stance has turned dovish. The probability of a rate cut in September is high, and the US dollar is in a weak position, which is favorable for risk assets. However, the uncertainty of the Fed's personnel changes will affect market risk appetite [8][9][10]. 3.2.2 Eurozone Situation - The eurozone's manufacturing prosperity is continuously recovering, inflation is stable, and the employment market is improving. The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in September, but the political crisis in France may put pressure on the euro [11][13]. 3.2.3 Domestic Situation - Most domestic economic indicators slowed down in July, but exports showed strong resilience. The annual growth target can still be achieved, and mild stimulus measures are expected to be introduced [14][15]. 3.3 Zinc Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Zinc Ore Supply - Global zinc concentrate supply is recovering. Overseas zinc concentrate is expected to increase by about 550,000 tons this year, and domestic zinc concentrate is expected to increase by about 100,000 tons. Zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, and zinc ore imports in July exceeded expectations [28][32][33]. 3.3.2 Refined Zinc Supply - In 2025, from January to June, global refined zinc production decreased year - on - year. Domestic production increased, while overseas production decreased. In September, refined zinc production is expected to decrease by 2.62% month - on - month, and zinc ingot imports are expected to decline [38][44][45]. 3.3.3 Refined Zinc Demand - From January to June 2025, global refined zinc consumption increased year - on - year. In the overseas market, the improvement of real estate and automobile consumption is uncertain. In the domestic market, the start - up of downstream primary processing enterprises in September is expected to improve, and the export of galvanized sheets has resilience. Traditional consumption sectors such as infrastructure and real estate show different trends, and emerging consumption sectors such as new energy have both opportunities and challenges [52][59][61]. 3.3.4 Inventory - In August, LME zinc inventory decreased rapidly, and domestic social inventory increased seasonally. In September, domestic social inventory is expected to turn to destocking [85]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - The Fed's potential rate - cut and domestic economic support policies support zinc prices. With the reduction of supply pressure and the approaching of the traditional peak demand season, zinc prices are expected to stabilize and rebound in September. Attention should be paid to the improvement of consumption [87][88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The lead market is in a wide - range shock. The supply and demand of lead concentrate and waste batteries continue to have gaps, processing fees are under pressure to decline, and the cost side still has support. Refinery overhauls increase, the supply pressure of electrolytic lead and secondary lead weakens marginally, and demand is affected by both the boost of the new national standard and the pressure of battery exports. The supply - demand maintains a weak pattern, and the lead price should be treated with a shock mindset. It is necessary to continuously monitor the implementation of refinery overhauls and the fulfillment of demand [2][76]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Lead Market Review - In August, the main contract price of Shanghai lead showed a narrow - range weak shock. At the beginning of the month, the lead price rebounded to around 17,000 yuan/ton due to factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, good domestic import - export data, and supply - side disturbances. After the optimistic sentiment faded, the lead price oscillated downward due to the non - fulfillment of the consumption peak season and the increase in social inventory. It then rebounded at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.87% to 16,880 yuan/ton. - LME lead showed a convergent shock trend. On one hand, the weakening US dollar boosted the lead price; on the other hand, the high LME inventory and short - selling enthusiasm of speculative funds pressured the price. It closed at 1,997 US dollars/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.4% [7]. 3.2 Lead Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Lead Ore Supply Situation - **Global lead concentrate supply is slowly recovering**: From January to June 2025, the global cumulative lead concentrate output was 220.4 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.16%. Overseas output was 127.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.15%, and China's output was 93 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.56%. It is expected that the overseas lead concentrate increment will reach about 10 million tons this year, and the domestic increment will be around 7 million tons [8][10]. - **Lead concentrate processing fees remain low, and the demand for silver concentrate imports is increasing**: In September, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 450 yuan/metal ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/metal ton; the import processing fee was - 90 US dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 30 US dollars/dry ton. The supply of lead concentrate is tight, and it is expected that the processing fees will continue to decline. In July, the lead concentrate import volume was 122,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.35%; the silver concentrate import volume was 154,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.62%. It is expected that the silver concentrate import will remain at the current level [18][19]. 3.2.2 Refined Lead Supply Situation - **Global refined lead supply growth is slow**: From January to June 2025, the global refined lead output was 6.57 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.56%. It is predicted that the global refined lead output in 2025 will be 13.272 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [24]. - **Refinery overhauls increase, and the electrolytic lead output in September is expected to decline**: In August, the electrolytic lead output was 324,700 tons, slightly lower than expected. It is expected that the output in September will be 320,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.24% [29]. - **The price of waste batteries is slowly falling, and secondary lead refineries are reducing production**: In August, the average price of waste batteries was 10,100 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 1.5%. The secondary lead output in August was 248,800 tons, lower than expected. It is expected that the output in September will be 209,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.8% [34][35]. 3.2.3 Refined Lead Demand Situation - **Global refined lead demand situation**: From January to June 2025, the global refined lead consumption was 6.549 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.5%. It is expected that the global refined lead demand in 2025 will increase by 1.5% to 13.19 million tons, and the supply will exceed the demand by 82,000 tons. The short - term recovery of the European and American automobile markets has uncertainty, and the boost to lead battery consumption is cautiously optimistic [48][49]. - **The peak season of lead battery production is not prosperous, and there are mixed factors in September**: In August, the lead battery production peak season did not meet expectations. In September, the new national standard for electric bicycles is implemented, which is expected to improve the demand, but the export to some Middle - Eastern countries is facing tariff increases. It is expected that the battery enterprise production will remain cautious [53]. - **The Shanghai - London ratio is not conducive to lead product imports, and the tariff increase in the Middle East is negative for starting battery exports**: In July, the refined lead export volume decreased month - on - month, and the import volume increased month - on - month. It is expected that the import volume will decline in August, and the export will remain stable. The battery export is affected by the tax increase in the Middle East, and the export volume is expected to decline [54][55]. - **Policy guidance improves the lead battery consumption outlook marginally**: In the automotive sector, the demand for lead batteries is expected to increase with the growth of vehicle ownership and the implementation of subsidy policies. In the electric bicycle sector, the new national standard and the old - for - new policy are expected to increase the lead battery demand. In the energy - storage sector, the lead battery demand also has growth potential [64][67][68]. 3.2.4 LME Maintains High Inventory, and Domestic Inventory is Mildly Reduced - In August, the LME lead inventory remained high, and it is expected to continue to increase, which will pressure the lead price. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly, and it is expected to continue to decline slowly in September [73]. 3.3 Summary and Future Outlook - The supply - demand of lead concentrate and waste batteries has gaps, and the cost side has support. The supply pressure of electrolytic lead and secondary lead is weakening, and the demand is affected by both positive and negative factors. The lead price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the refinery overhauls and demand fulfillment [76].

Core Insights - Antimony has become a strategically important and volatile mineral in 2025, used in various applications including flame retardants, military equipment, and electric vehicle batteries, amid a global supply crisis driving prices to historic highs [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Antimony prices have surged over 800% compared to 2020, driven by supply shocks, rising demand, and geopolitical tensions, particularly due to China's export controls [2] - China accounts for over 70% of global antimony production and refining capacity, and its export halt in March 2025 led to immediate price spikes of 50% or more, creating a two-tiered pricing system [2] - Global antimony output dropped more than 21% in June 2025, exacerbating supply shortages in the US, Japan, and Europe [3] Industry Demand and Alternatives - Annual antimony demand is estimated at 230,000 to 240,000 tonnes, with a significant portion needed for high-purity applications, which are difficult to source outside of China [4] - The antimony crisis reflects previous disruptions in rare earth elements, prompting governments and companies to seek alternative sources [5] New Projects and Initiatives - Canagold Resources Ltd's New Polaris project in British Columbia contains over 5,000 tonnes of antimony alongside gold, with potential additional value estimated at $200 to $300 million [7] - The company is conducting metallurgical tests to produce a gold-antimony concentrate, aiming to create a new revenue stream [8] - Strong support from Canadian and US governments is noted for developing domestic antimony sources to address supply gaps [9] Future Outlook - Supply volatility and price pressure are expected to persist, particularly affecting industries reliant on antimony, such as battery manufacturing and defense [10] - The effectiveness of projects like New Polaris in closing the antimony supply gap remains uncertain, but ongoing price surges and demand suggest a need for investment in a more resilient supply chain [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lead is "Oscillating Bullish" [3] Core Viewpoints - Overall, the losses of primary and secondary lead enterprises have widened, but there have been few production cuts or restarts, resulting in little marginal change in supply. On the demand side, the peak season is not obvious, dealers' inventories are high, and inventory reduction is poor. The recent marginal variable comes from the sewage inspection in Anhui, where individual secondary smelters have slightly reduced production. The overall production of primary and secondary smelters is normal, and there is no significant change in supply increment. The rigid cost of concentrates and waste batteries supports the bottom of the lead price, and the lead price is mainly in a strong oscillation, with weak monthly spread/ratio drivers [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Company Production and News - Pan American Silver Corp's zinc concentrate production in Q2 2025 was 12,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 25%, and lead concentrate production was 6,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 22% [6]. - GatosSilver's zinc metal production in Q2 2025 was about 7,300 tons, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 29%. Its 2025 zinc production guidance was raised to 52 - 56 million pounds [6]. - Nyrstar received 135 million Australian dollars in support from the Australian government to promote the reconstruction of smelters and the development of key metals [6]. 2. Lead Concentrate Processing Fees - The national average price of lead concentrate processing fees this week was 435 yuan/metal ton, a month-on-month decrease of 55 yuan/ton [3][8]. 3. Lead Concentrate Imports - In June 2025, the import volume of lead ore and its concentrates was about 118,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 13.54% and a year-on-year increase of 26.90% [9]. - As of August 1, the port inventory was 17,700 tons, with a slight increase. The tender price of imported lead ore was inverted by over 100 US dollars, and smelters had poor acceptance [13]. 4. Futures Prices - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,850 yuan/ton, with a high of 17,010 yuan/ton, a low of 16,820 yuan/ton, and closed at 16,955 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.8%. Structurally, Shanghai lead maintained a C structure with small monthly spread contradictions [15]. - Last week, London lead opened at 2,010 US dollars/ton, with a high of 2,042 US dollars/ton, a low of 1,994 US dollars/ton, and closed at 2,040 US dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 1.42%. Structurally, the outer market maintained a Contango structure, and the LME lead 0 - 3 spread strengthened, operating around -20 US dollars/ton [18]. 5. Industry Profits - The profit of the primary lead industry was a loss of 800 yuan/ton, with the loss widening month-on-month. There were both production cuts and restarts in primary lead, and after offsetting, production was expected to maintain an increase [25]. - The profit of the secondary lead industry was a loss of 1,000 yuan/ton, with the loss widening month-on-month. Some smelters in Anhui and Hebei planned to end maintenance, and secondary lead supply would increase slightly [27]. 6. Waste Battery Supply - This week, the tax-excluded price of waste electric batteries in most regions was maintained at 9,900 - 9,950 yuan/ton. The market found it difficult to purchase at this price, and the overall price of waste batteries was slightly weak [30]. 7. Inventories - As of August 6, the LME lead ingot inventory was 269,400 tons, unchanged month-on-month [34]. - As of August 1, the SHFE lead inventory was 63,300 tons, unchanged month-on-month [35]. - As of Thursday this week, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions was 71,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1,800 tons [38]. 8. Lead-Zinc Ratio - As of Thursday this week, the domestic lead-zinc ratio was 0.75, and the foreign lead-zinc ratio was 0.71 [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures rebounded weakly. The weakening US dollar and the concentrated low inventory of LME zinc with signs of a squeeze contributed to the rebound of zinc prices both at home and abroad. However, due to the continued inventory accumulation during the domestic off - season and insufficient downstream purchasing, the upward momentum of Shanghai zinc was limited, and the rebound height is expected to be restricted [3][4][11] Summary by Directory Trading Data - From August 1st to August 8th, the SHFE zinc price rose from 22,320 yuan/ton to 22,515 yuan/ton, an increase of 195 yuan/ton; the LME zinc price rose from 2,729.5 dollars/ton to 2,834 dollars/ton, an increase of 104.5 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.18 to 7.94. The SHFE inventory increased by 4,193 tons to 65,917 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 19,325 tons to 81,500 tons, the social inventory increased by 10,000 tons to 113,200 tons, and the spot premium decreased by 40 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton [5] Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai zinc (ZN2509) rebounded weakly, with a weekly increase of 0.87%, closing at 22,515 yuan/ton. LME zinc also rebounded, with a weekly increase of 3.83%, closing at 2,834 dollars/ton. In the spot market, after the zinc price rebounded, downstream purchasing weakened, and the market remained dull. As of August 8th, LME zinc inventory decreased, while SHFE and social inventories increased. In terms of the macro - environment, the US economic data was mixed, and domestic import and export data in July exceeded expectations with positive changes in inflation data [6][7][8] Industry News - As of August 8th, the average weekly processing fee for domestic zinc concentrates remained flat at 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and that for imported zinc concentrates increased by 3.5 dollars/dry ton to 82.25 dollars/dry ton. Pan American Silver Corp's zinc concentrate production in Q2 2025 was 12,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 25%. Nyrstar received 135 million Australian dollars in support from the Australian government. Glencore's self - owned zinc production in Q2 2025 was 251,600 tons, 19% higher than in Q2 2024, and its 2025 self - owned zinc production guidance was adjusted to 940,000 - 980,000 tons [12] Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the price trends of Shanghai and LME zinc, price ratios, spot and LME premium/discounts, inventory changes, zinc ore processing fees, smelter profits, refined zinc production and import/export, and downstream enterprise开工率 [13][15][17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For the lead market, supply and demand are both increasing, with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices, and short - term lead prices are expected to consolidate within a range [1] - For the zinc market, in the macro - environment, the "anti - involution" sentiment in China is fluctuating, US non - farm payroll data is below expectations, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is strengthening. Fundamentally, both zinc ore and zinc ingot supplies are increasing, demand is in the off - season, and inventories are accumulating. However, the continuous decline in overseas LME zinc inventories provides some support. Short - term zinc prices are unlikely to drop significantly and are expected to consolidate within a range [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Market Price and Spread - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,600 yuan/ton, down 0.60% [1] - Shanghai lead futures main contract closing price was 16,775 yuan/ton, up 0.15% [1] - Shanghai lead basis was - 175 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan [1] - LME 0 - 3 lead premium was - 41.92 dollars/ton, up 5.94 dollars [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - Futures active contract trading volume was 40,133 lots, down 13.13% [1] - Futures active contract open interest was 72,083 lots, up 1.06% [1] - Trading volume to open interest ratio was 0.56, down 14.04% [1] Inventory - LME lead inventory was 272,975 tons, unchanged [1] - Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 58,656 tons, down 0.59% [1] News - On August 3, 2025, the Anhui Ecological Environment WeChat public account announced a campaign to collect clues on prominent problems in rural black - odorous water bodies and rural domestic sewage treatment facilities. This has affected Anhui's secondary lead smelting enterprises, with some refineries suspending production [1] Fundamental Analysis - Lead concentrate imports have no expected increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. Primary lead production is relatively stable. Secondary lead scrap battery prices are likely to rise, and some refineries have reduced or suspended production due to raw material shortages or cost - price inversions. Demand is expected to enter the peak season, but enterprises are pausing purchases for inventory checks this week [1] Zinc Market Price and Spread - SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,230 yuan/ton, up 0.59% [1] - Shanghai zinc futures main contract closing price was 22,380 yuan/ton, up 0.56% [1] - Shanghai zinc basis was - 150 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [1] - LME 0 - 3 zinc premium was - 13.16 dollars/ton, down 2.29 dollars [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - Futures active contract trading volume was 85,449 lots, down 26.17% [1] - Futures active contract open interest was 98,472 lots, down 4.14% [1] - Trading volume to open interest ratio was 0.87, down 22.98% [1] Inventory - LME zinc inventory was 92,275 tons, unchanged [1] - Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 14,807 tons, down 0.67% [1] News - On August 5, Nyrstar received 135 million Australian dollars in transitional funding from the Australian federal, South Australian, and Tasmanian governments to support its smelters and key - metal development plans [1] Fundamental Analysis - Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. Refinery profits and production enthusiasm are improving, with obvious production increases. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm has improved, but end - demand is in the off - season and enterprise operations have declined [1]