全球市场综述 上周五，美国消费者信心创六个月新高，逢低买入推动美股周五反弹，标普涨近2%，创去年5月以来最 佳单日涨幅。美债收益率全线走高，10年期上行近3基点，2年期收益率涨5.54基点。美元日内跌0.3%， 但全周收涨0.56%、两周连涨。 贵金属再度上演V型反转。芝商所第六次对金银期货上调保证金后， 现货黄金开盘走低，最低触及 4655.57美元/盎司，随后持续上攻。周一亚市盘初，现货黄金重返5000美元上方，并在此后快速走高， 报5016.14美元/盎司，日内涨超1.1%。日经225指数CME期货走高，涨2.2%。 由于伊朗和美国在阿曼举行的间接谈判未能显著抑制投资者对两国爆发军事冲突的担忧，国际原油维持 区间震荡。WTI原油盘中曾两度站上64美元关口，但随后都有所回落，最终收涨0.59%，报63.53美元/ 桶；布伦特原油收涨0.74%，报67.54美元/桶。 在2月8日举行的日本众议院选举中，由自民党和日本维新会组成的执政联盟获得过半数议席。日本广播 协会发布的开票数据显示，自民党获得316个议席，日本维新会获得36个议席。在野党方面，由立宪民 主党和公明党共同组建的新党"中道改革联合"获得49个 ...

Macro News - The central bank conducted a net injection of 38 billion yuan through a 1,130 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate. This was due to 750 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing today [1] Industry News - A total of 20 A-share listed companies disclosed the latest announcements regarding mergers and acquisitions during the week of February 2 to February 8, including companies like Yongtai Technology, Ruili Kemi, and Longyun Co., among others [4] - The Chinese gaming industry is projected to reach a record revenue of 350.79 billion yuan by the end of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 7.68%. The user base is expected to grow by 1.35% to 683 million, driven by high-quality blockbuster products [5] - Several express delivery companies, including China Post and SF Express, announced they will operate during the Spring Festival, although some will charge a "resource adjustment fee" due to increased operational costs [6] Sector Insights - CITIC Securities reported that demand for space photovoltaic technology is expected to see exponential growth, with leading Chinese photovoltaic equipment manufacturers likely to enter the supply chains of companies like Tesla and SpaceX, potentially leading to significant orders and new growth opportunities [7] - Huatai Securities noted that the release of the draft national food safety standards for prepared dishes marks a transition for the industry from unregulated growth to a more standardized phase, which is expected to enhance the industry's healthy development [8] - China International Capital Corporation indicated that commodities are benefiting from global capital diversification, with current valuations in energy and chemicals at relatively low levels. Despite short-term volatility, the structural demand driven by AI expansion and energy transition remains unchanged, suggesting that the structural market for commodities may not be over [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the transportation industry [4]. Core Insights - The aviation sector is experiencing a strong demand during the Spring Festival travel season, with an upward trend in ticket prices expected to continue. The report suggests a long-term investment strategy based on a "super cycle" logic [3][4]. - In the oil shipping sector, freight rates remain high, with expectations for tanker profits to increase significantly year-on-year in Q1 2026, indicating a potential "super bull market" [3][4]. - The express delivery industry is anticipated to see a recovery in profitability, driven by a reduction in competitive pressure and a gradual increase in price levels [4]. Summary by Sections Aviation - The Spring Festival travel season officially began on February 2, 2026, with a year-on-year increase in passenger flow of 2% as of February 6, 2026. Air travel saw a 6% increase, while rail travel decreased by 1% [4][10]. - The report highlights that the aviation market's load factor and ticket prices are both showing positive year-on-year growth. The limited increase in train and bus services is expected to benefit airline revenue management [4]. - The report anticipates a significant improvement in airline profitability during the Spring Festival season, with Q1 2026 expected to show industry-wide profitability due to favorable ticket price trends and a decrease in oil prices [4]. Oil Shipping - The report notes that geopolitical tensions have kept shipping rates elevated, with tanker utilization rates remaining high since August 2025 due to increased oil production and stricter sanctions on Russian oil [4]. - The average freight rate for VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers) on the Middle East to China route has maintained above $120,000 per day [20]. - The report emphasizes that the oil shipping sector is not merely a short-term play on geopolitical events but has a long-term bullish outlook due to ongoing global oil production increases and the aging of tanker fleets [4]. Express Delivery - The report indicates that the express delivery sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability, with a year-on-year growth in parcel volume of 13.6% for 2025, although December's growth slowed to 2% due to high operational costs and a warm winter [4]. - The report highlights a narrowing decline in industry pricing, with December's average revenue per parcel decreasing by only 2% year-on-year, suggesting a potential easing of competitive pressures [4]. - The report recommends focusing on leading express companies that are optimizing their business structures and building differentiated competitive advantages, such as SF Express and ZTO Express [4].

地铁客流量之后，快递业务量也成为观测城市活力的晴雨表。 那么，2025年，谁才是中国快递第一城？先说结论：如果从快递处理量来看，广州是中国快递第一城，金华（义乌）排名第二，深圳排名 第三。 2025年，广州的快递处理量达到了218.98亿件，相当于深圳的1.82倍、上海的1.9倍、北京的2.6倍，堪称"全国最忙"的城市。 如果从快递业务收入来看，上海是中国快递第一城，广州排名第二，深圳排名第三。2025年，上海快递业务收入达到2713.3亿元，断层式 领先，比广州、深圳、北京三城的总和还多854亿元。 01 快递处理量排名： 广州第一、金华第二、深圳第三 所谓快递处理量=快递业务量+快递投递量。简言之，就是指某地区在一定时间内寄出去的快递（快递业务量）和收到的快递（快递投递 量）的总和。 近日，国家邮政局公布2025年邮政行业运行情况，揭晓了各大城市的快递业务量排名，这个排名是很权威的。 以下就是2025年中国内地快递处理量排名前50位城市： | 排名 | | 快递处理量 | 排名 | 切尔司 | 快递处理量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (万件) ...

Macro Research - The recent significant drop in gold prices is primarily due to previous irrational surges, high leverage, and crowded trading conditions, which does not alter the long-term bullish trend for gold. Mid to long-term investment opportunities in gold should still be considered [2][3] Social Services Industry Research - The optimization of vacation systems, improvement in cultural tourism supply, and acceleration of local asset securitization are expected to create investment opportunities in the scenic area sector. Three main lines for investment are suggested: focus on transportation improvements, resource integration expectations, and new project launches [3][4] Cosmetics Industry Research - The cosmetics market is expected to continue steady growth in 2026, driven by product innovation and the rise of domestic brands. It is recommended to selectively invest in high-growth companies and those with recovery potential due to product and channel changes. Specific companies to consider include 若羽臣, 倍加洁, 毛戈平, 林清轩, and 上美股份 for strong fundamentals, and 贝泰妮, 珀莱雅, and others for recovery potential [6][7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [10] Core Insights - The competition in the instant retail sector is intensifying, shifting from simple subsidy wars to a comprehensive competition for traffic entry and fulfillment capabilities [2][5] - Major e-commerce players are actively engaging in the instant retail space, with initiatives such as Taobao's "30 billion free order" campaign and Meituan's acquisition of Dingdong Maicai, indicating a strategic shift towards enhancing supply chain infrastructure [5][32] - The reliance on third-party logistics platforms is increasing, with SF Express being highlighted as the largest third-party instant delivery platform, showcasing superior service efficiency and coverage [5][37] Summary by Sections Instant Retail Competition - E-commerce giants are ramping up efforts in instant retail, with Taobao's initiatives driving significant increases in order volumes, particularly in beverage categories [5][27] - AI technology is being leveraged to optimize user decision-making and enhance fulfillment efficiency, with notable increases in order volumes driven by AI capabilities [27][28] Supply Chain Integration - Meituan's acquisition of Dingdong Maicai for $717 million aims to strengthen its supply chain capabilities in the fresh produce sector, addressing infrastructure gaps in its existing operations [5][32] - Dingdong Maicai has established a robust supply chain with over 1,000 front warehouses and a significant user base, positioning it as a key player in the market [32][33] Third-Party Delivery Platforms - The strategic value of third-party delivery platforms is becoming more pronounced, with SF Express leading the market in terms of service quality and operational scale [5][37] - SF Express is projected to achieve significant revenue growth, with expectations of a 33% year-on-year increase in revenue for the second half of 2025 [41][44] Transportation Trends - The report tracks spring transportation data, indicating stable growth in domestic passenger volumes despite slight fluctuations in ticket prices and capacity [48][49] - The logistics sector is experiencing a surge in express delivery volumes, particularly during the holiday season, with a year-on-year growth of 687% in express collection volumes [8]

| 五、宏观信息 | | | --- | --- | | 春节长假将至，多家券商研究所发布关于春节行情的研判观点。"持股过节"是机构主流建议，其理由既来自对历史"春节效应"的复盘，也基于对当前经济 | | | 预期、流动性环境及风险偏好的综合评估。多家券商认为，节前要注重均衡与防御，节后聚焦成长与产业趋势。 | | | 本周全球市场大事不断！国内方面，中国1月CPI、PPI将于2月11日公布；新增贷款、社融等信贷数据有望出炉；2025年第四季度恒生指数系列检讨结果将于2 | | | 月13日公布；科技巨头春节红包大战持续。国际方面，延迟公布的美国1月非农就业和通胀数据重磅来袭；美国与伊朗拟进行新一轮谈判；戛纳世界人工智能 | | | 峰会将于2月12日举办。财报方面，麦当劳、可口可乐、中芯国际、网易等将披露最新财报。 | | | 特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克表示，未来3年内，太空将成为部署AI最具经济性的地点。马斯克认为，未来"仿真数字人类"将远超人类数量。在此背景 | | | 下，控制AI不是重点，当务之急是确保其价值观与人类文明延续目标一致。今年年内或实现AI对人类能力的全面数字化模拟，这将彻底改变许多行 ...

Industry Overview - The China Chemical Products Price Index (CCPI) is reported at 4120 points this week, showing a year-on-year decrease of 5.0% and a month-on-month increase of 1.1% [1] - The CCPI for the previous week was 4066 points, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.0% [1] - The domestic maritime shipping price for liquid chemicals was 168 RMB/ton, down 8.51% year-on-year and 0.62% month-on-month [1] Express Delivery - In December, the express delivery business volume increased by 2.3% year-on-year, with some companies benefiting from price increases due to reduced competition [2] - The total collection volume for postal express from January 26 to February 1 was approximately 4.541 billion pieces, up 60.8% year-on-year and 5.5% month-on-month [2] - The total delivery volume during the same period was about 4.477 billion pieces, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 18.7% and a month-on-month increase of 5.8% [2] - The State Post Bureau forecasts that by 2025, express delivery revenue will reach 1.5 trillion RMB, growing by 6.5% year-on-year [2] Logistics - DSV's integration of DB Schenker is progressing ahead of expectations, with completion anticipated by the end of 2026 [3] - The company is focusing on smart logistics, benefiting from improved demand [3] Aviation and Airports - The average daily flights nationwide decreased by 1.08% year-on-year, with domestic flights down 1.28% [4] - Brent crude oil futures settled at 67.55 USD/barrel, down 4.47% month-on-month and 11.07% year-on-year [4] - The domestic aviation kerosene ex-factory price (including tax) is 5334 RMB/ton, down 4.3% month-on-month and 12.7% year-on-year [4] - The airline sector is expected to see profit elasticity due to supply constraints from aircraft manufacturers and upstream component suppliers [4] Shipping - The container shipping price index (CCFI) is at 1122.15 points, down 4.5% month-on-month and 20.7% year-on-year [5] - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is at 1266.56 points, down 3.8% month-on-month and 33.2% year-on-year [5] - The crude oil transportation index (BDTI) increased by 2.1% month-on-month and 88.5% year-on-year, indicating a growing demand for oil transportation [5] - A recent agreement between the U.S. and India to halt Russian oil purchases is expected to boost oil transportation demand [5] Road and Rail Ports - Anhui Expressway completed the acquisition of Shandong Expressway, acquiring 7% of its total share capital at a price of 8.92 RMB/share, totaling 3.019 billion RMB [5] - The total number of freight vehicles on national highways reached 56.83 million, up 4.75% month-on-month and 506.12% year-on-year [5]

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights concerns regarding the potential suspension of express delivery services during the Spring Festival, which has led to increased consumer anxiety and purchasing behavior. Group 1: Consumer Behavior - Many consumers are reacting to the news of potential delivery suspension by making last-minute purchases, with one individual stating they placed 20 orders overnight due to the announcement [2] - The fear of not receiving goods in time for the holiday has prompted consumers to buy items they were previously hesitant about [5] Group 2: Delivery Service Responses - Multiple express delivery companies have announced their service arrangements for the Spring Festival, confirming that they will continue to provide delivery services to meet holiday demand [9] - Major companies such as YTO Express, Shentong Express, and Yunda Express have stated that they will not suspend operations during the holiday and have not received any notifications regarding price increases [11] - China Post Express Logistics confirmed that they operate year-round but may implement additional charges for pickup services, while JD Logistics indicated that some stations might experience scheduling changes and potential resource adjustment fees [12] - Other companies like SF Express and Debon Express also confirmed they will not suspend operations, although transportation costs may be adjusted due to various factors [12][14]

春节临近,与筹备年货的喜悦一同到来的,是关于快递停运的广泛讨论。春节快递何时停,怎么寄,是大家关 心的话题。2月6日,"快递停运"话题冲上热搜。还有一份被广泛转发的"快递停运时间表"显示,多家快递 公司将在春节前几天陆续停止收派件。 圆通表示,春节期间国内寄递除西藏、甘肃、云南、内蒙古、吉林、广西、湖南、辽宁等部分因第三方 物流停运或天气原因无法到达的区域外,其余地区服务正常。 申通表示春节期间不打烊,会正常提供收派服务,具体安排可能根据各地网点实际情况略有调整,其间可能 根据实际情况调整运费。 韵达客服表示,春节期间全网正常营运,除部分地区(西藏、新疆、四川部分县级城市、云南、青海部分县 市)无法收寄,其他地区均正常营运。但春节期间会有省内2-3天、跨省4-5天的延时。 网传的那些"停运时间表"到底靠不靠谱?记者打听了一圈,目前没有一家快递公司明确表示会在春节期间 全面停运,"停运时间表"的信息并不准确。为了让大家过个安心年,记者梳理了2026年春节期间国内主要 快递公司和电商平台的发货政策。一句话总结:春节快递不打烊,但时效和服务费可能会有小变动。 春节期间,中国邮政继续提供寄递服务,可以通过EMS微信公 ...