Summary of China Rare Earths 2026 Outlook Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Rare Earths - **Key Players**: Northern Rare Earth High-Tech (NRE), China Rare Earth Resources and Technology (CRE), JL Mag Rare-Earth Core Insights - **Supply Discipline**: China's rare earth supply discipline has transitioned to a structural level due to the extension of smelting and separation quotas to imported ores starting in 2025, reducing supply elasticity across the system. SMM anticipates a ~10% year-over-year growth in China's supply for 2026E [2][3] - **Imports**: US-origin rare earth ore imports have dropped to nearly zero since August 2025, following MP Materials' export suspension to China. This supply gap has been compensated by increased imports from Africa, while Myanmar's supply share is expected to decline due to rising tax uncertainty and political risks [3] - **Exports**: SMM forecasts approximately 9% year-over-year growth in exports for 2026E [4] Recycling and Demand - **Recycling**: Recycling has become a significant marginal supplier, with recycled PrNd accounting for ~25% of total PrNd supply in 2025, projected to rise to ~35% in 2026 due to planned capacity additions [4] - **Demand Growth**: SMM expects magnet demand to grow by 15-18% year-over-year in 2026E, driven by the adoption of NEVs (20% production growth), wind power (10% installation growth), air conditioners (11% production growth), and industrial robotics (8-10% growth). Humanoid robots are still in early stages, contributing less than 3% to total demand [5] Pricing Outlook - **Pricing Expectations**: SMM anticipates a slightly tight balance in 2026E, with potential short-term price spikes reaching ~Rmb700k/t. HREE pricing is more influenced by policy than supply dynamics [8] Company Valuations - **Northern Rare Earth (NRE)**: Valued at Rmb72 using a P/B-based methodology, reflecting a 9.5x target 2026E P/B, which is a +2.0 standard deviation premium to its historical average. The valuation considers structural demand growth and tighter resource control [9] - **China Rare Earth (CRE)**: Valued at Rmb61.6 with a 12x target 2026E P/B, set at +1.5 standard deviations above its historical average, reflecting similar structural factors as NRE [11] - **JL Mag Rare-Earth**: Valued at Rmb32.6 for JL Mag-A and HK$25.3 for JL Mag-H based on 2027E earnings, applying lower P/E multiples to account for potential downside risks in the robotics sector [14][16] Risks - **Key Risks for NRE and CRE**: Include demand growth uncertainty in downstream applications, unexpected capacity expansions outside China, trade barriers, price volatility, policy adjustments in China, emergence of alternative materials, and sector consolidation activities [10][12] Conclusion The rare earth sector is poised for growth driven by structural changes in supply discipline, increasing demand from various industries, and a significant role of recycling. However, companies must navigate geopolitical risks and market volatility as they position themselves for the future.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Metals Sector**: The focus is on supply disruptions creating opportunities within the metals sector, particularly in precious metals, industrial metals, and energy metals [1][5]. Core Insights and Arguments Precious Metals - **Long-term Drivers**: The precious metals market benefits from global de-dollarization, central bank gold purchases, and increased ETF investments. The Chinese central bank is a major player, purchasing 24-25 tons of gold in 2025 [4]. - **Current Prices**: Gold and silver prices have reached new highs, with gold at 44,981 CNY and silver at 103 CNY. The demand for silver is expected to rise due to high physical and investment demand [2][10]. - **ETF Trends**: The trend of increasing ETF investments in gold is expected to continue, supporting price growth [8]. Industrial and Energy Metals - **Price Increases**: Significant price increases have been observed in copper, aluminum, tin, and lithium, with lithium prices surpassing 180,000 CNY. Supply constraints due to geopolitical issues and ESG factors are limiting supply growth [2][5]. - **Copper Supply Issues**: Supply disruptions from strikes in Chile are expected to keep copper prices strong in the short term [3][17]. - **Lithium Market Outlook**: The lithium market is optimistic due to increased demand from electric vehicles and energy storage, despite recent price surges posing short-term risks [12]. Nickel Market - **Supply Concerns**: The nickel market is closely watching Indonesia's nickel quota, which could lead to a supply shortage if reduced to 260 million tons. The demand from the EV sector is expected to grow, but caution is advised [13][15]. Aluminum Market - **Current Trends**: Aluminum prices are supported by geopolitical events and recovering demand from downstream processing industries. The market is expected to remain tight due to limited domestic supply growth [21][23]. Silver Market - **Demand Dynamics**: The silver market has been in a supply shortage since 2021, with fluctuations in physical and investment demand. Despite a decrease in photovoltaic demand, overall demand is expected to rise, supporting price increases [9][10]. Steel Industry - **Current Performance**: The steel industry shows mixed performance, with production growth in some areas but overall demand expected to remain stable due to reduced real estate activity. Investment opportunities are seen in companies with strong fundamentals [30][32]. Other Important Insights - **Investment Recommendations**: Focus on companies with competitive advantages in the metals sector, including leading firms in precious metals and energy metals. Specific recommendations include companies like Tianqi Lithium and Northern Rare Earth [28]. - **Market Sentiment**: The overall sentiment in the metals market is optimistic, driven by strong demand and supply constraints, with potential for price increases across various metals [2][5][12]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the dynamics within the metals sector and providing insights into future trends and investment opportunities.

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - Short-term raw material supply tightness is expected to support nickel prices, with LME nickel spot price reaching $18,630 per ton, up 5.70% from January 16 [1] - The cobalt market is anticipated to see continued price increases due to structural supply tightness, with electrolytic cobalt priced at 438,000 yuan per ton, down 3.74% from January 16 [2][5] - Domestic antimony supply remains tight, supporting antimony prices, with average prices for antimony ingots at 160,500 yuan per ton [6] - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to continue rising, with a market average of 171,100 yuan per ton, up 8.36% from January 16 [8][19] - Supply uncertainties in the rare earth market are expected to support prices, with significant legislative changes in Vietnam impacting global supply [20] - Tin prices are supported by uncertainties in overseas supply, with LME tin prices at $54,200 per ton, up 9.66% from January 16 [11][21] - Tungsten market supply-demand imbalance is notable, with white tungsten concentrate prices at 535,500 yuan per ton, up 5.93% from January 16 [13][22] - Uranium supply tightness is expected to persist, with global uranium prices at $63.51 per pound, significantly higher than historical lows [14][15] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry - Nickel prices are supported by supply constraints, with Indonesia's nickel mining production quota expected to be reduced to 250-260 million tons [1][16] - Cobalt supply is projected to remain tight, with Congo's export quotas confirmed to extend into 2026 [2][17] Antimony Industry - Antimony prices are supported by long-term supply tightness, with domestic production facing seasonal disruptions [6][18] Lithium Industry - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain strong due to demand support and ongoing supply constraints, with significant price increases noted [8][19] Rare Earth Industry - Legislative changes in Vietnam are tightening global rare earth supply, with China maintaining a dominant position in the market [20] Tin Industry - Tin prices are supported by uncertainties in overseas supply, particularly from Myanmar and Congo [11][21] Tungsten Industry - The tungsten market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with prices expected to rise further due to limited new supply [13][22] Uranium Industry - Uranium prices are supported by ongoing supply tightness and geopolitical factors affecting production [14][15]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - Short-term raw material supply tightness is expected to support nickel prices, with LME nickel spot price reaching $18,630 per ton, up 5.70% from January 16 [1] - The cobalt market is anticipated to see continued price increases due to structural supply tightness, with electrolytic cobalt priced at 438,000 yuan per ton, down 3.74% from January 16 [2][5] - Domestic antimony supply remains tight, providing price support, with antimony ingot prices at 160,500 yuan per ton [6] - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to continue rising, with a market average of 171,100 yuan per ton, up 8.36% from January 16 [8][19] - Supply uncertainties in the rare earth market are expected to support prices, with significant global supply concentration in China [10][20] - Tin prices are supported by overseas supply uncertainties, with LME tin prices at $54,200 per ton, up 9.66% from January 16 [11][21] - Tungsten market supply-demand imbalance is notable, with white tungsten concentrate prices at 535,500 yuan per ton, up 5.93% from January 16 [13][22] - Uranium supply tightness is expected to persist, with global uranium prices at $63.51 per pound [14][15] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Update - Nickel prices are supported by supply constraints, with Indonesia's nickel mining production quota expected to be reduced to 250-260 million tons [1][16] - Cobalt supply is projected to tighten further, with Congo's export quotas confirmed to extend into 2026 [2][17] Antimony Industry Update - Antimony supply remains tight, with domestic prices expected to rise due to export restrictions and seasonal supply issues [6][18] Lithium Industry Update - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain strong due to demand support and supply uncertainties, particularly regarding the recovery of key lithium mines [8][19] Rare Earth Industry Update - The rare earth market is facing supply tightening due to export bans and geopolitical factors, with China maintaining a dominant position [10][20] Tin Industry Update - Tin prices are supported by uncertainties in overseas supply, particularly from Myanmar and Congo [11][21] Tungsten Industry Update - The tungsten market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with prices expected to rise due to limited new supply [13][22] Uranium Industry Update - Uranium prices are supported by ongoing supply tightness and geopolitical factors affecting production [14][15]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3][39] Core Views - The rare earth magnetic materials industry outperformed the market, with a price increase of 1.66% this week, surpassing the benchmark (CSI 300) by 2.28 percentage points [5][12] - The industry valuation (TTM P/E) has rebounded to 83.53x, currently at the 92.1% historical percentile [5][12] - Short-term adjustments are expected after a significant price increase in the industry chain, but medium to long-term demand remains stable [39] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The rare earth magnetic materials industry saw a relative return of 14% over one month, 5% over three months, and 74% over twelve months, with absolute returns of 16%, 7%, and 98% respectively [4] - The industry valuation has increased by 1.37x this week [5] Price Trends - Domestic light rare earth concentrate prices remained stable, while medium and heavy rare earth prices declined [6][9] - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium showed weak fluctuations, with praseodymium oxide prices decreasing by 0.37% [9][14] - Dysprosium and terbium prices were adjusted downwards due to insufficient downstream demand [9][18] Fundamental Changes - Supply-side growth is limited, with tight spot circulation and a positive long-term demand outlook [9][38] - The demand from downstream sectors, such as new energy vehicles, is experiencing marginal declines, while industrial trends remain generally positive [9][38] Valuation Perspective - Current absolute and relative historical valuation levels are supported by loose liquidity and favorable industrial policies [9][38] - The industry is expected to enter a phase of stable fluctuations in valuation due to regulatory constraints [39] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining an "Overweight" rating, focusing on upstream rare earth resource companies and downstream magnetic material companies with strong customer structures and growth potential [39][42]

Group 1: Copper - The LME copper price increased by 0.25% to $12,840.0 per ton, while the Shanghai copper price rose by 0.57% to ¥101,300 per ton [1] - Copper concentrate processing fees fell to -$49.79 per ton, and national copper inventory increased by 2.9% week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 203,000 tons [1][13] - The operating rate of copper cable enterprises increased by 2.72 percentage points to 58.71%, with a year-on-year increase of 15.87% [1][13] Group 2: Aluminum - The LME aluminum price rose by 0.29% to $3,137.5 per ton, and the Shanghai aluminum price increased by 1.53% to ¥24,300 per ton [2][14] - The operating rate of domestic aluminum processing enterprises fell by 6.3 percentage points to 51.1% due to the upcoming Spring Festival [2][14] - Electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 6,000 tons to 743,000 tons [2][14] Group 3: Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 6.88% to $4,938.4 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings rising by 4.86 tons to 1,079.66 tons [3][15] - Geopolitical risks have led to a strong fluctuation in the gold market [3][15] - The 10-year TIPS yield decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 1.95% [3][15] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased by 0.25% to ¥672,700 per ton [4][36] - December exports of rare earth permanent magnets increased by 7% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in exports [4][36] - The rare earth sector is expected to see upward price momentum due to supply constraints and favorable export conditions [4][36] Group 5: Tungsten - Tungsten prices increased by 5.54% this week, supported by tight supply conditions [4][38] - The establishment of a $2.5 billion "strategic resilience reserve" in the U.S. may elevate tungsten's priority [4][38] - The price of ammonium paratungstate rose by 6.06% to ¥790,500 per ton [4][38] Group 6: Tin - Tin prices increased by 2.19% to ¥423,700 per ton, with inventory rising by 1.79% to 9,720 tons [4][38] - Supply from Indonesia and Myanmar remains below expectations, supporting an upward price trend [4][38] - The demand outlook is positive due to recovery in semiconductor and photovoltaic sectors [4][38] Group 7: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate rose by 0.8% to ¥159,500 per ton, while lithium hydroxide increased by 2.0% to ¥156,900 per ton [4][63] - Lithium production decreased slightly, with total output at 22,200 tons, down by 40 tons [4][63] - The market is experiencing strong demand, with signs of pre-holiday stocking [4][63] Group 8: Cobalt - Cobalt prices decreased by 3.7% to ¥437,000 per ton, while cobalt intermediate prices increased by 1.5% to $25.75 per pound [5][65] - Supply tightness is expected to persist, with domestic prices showing upward momentum [5][65] - The market structure remains tight due to limited liquidity and long transportation cycles [5][65]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the small metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The supply-demand tension continues, with tungsten and tin prices breaking historical highs [4] - Rare earth elements are experiencing a supply tightness, leading to increased prices, particularly for praseodymium and neodymium oxide, which rose by 7.69% to 672,500 CNY/ton [12] - Molybdenum prices are expected to stabilize due to cost support and improved supply-demand dynamics, despite a recent decline [23] - Tungsten prices are at historical highs due to supply contraction and price increases in long-term contracts [30] - Tin prices are strong due to macroeconomic factors and ongoing supply disruptions, with SHFE tin rising by 21.85% to 429,600 CNY/ton [33] - Antimony prices are fluctuating, awaiting signals for export recovery, with recent increases noted [42] Summary by Sections Rare Earths - Praseodymium and neodymium oxide prices increased by 7.69% to 672,500 CNY/ton, while dysprosium decreased by 1.39% to 1,420,000 CNY/ton [12][4] - The supply side remains tight due to policy and supply constraints, while demand from downstream magnetic material companies has shifted from just-in-time purchasing to stockpiling [4] Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices fell by 1.94% to 4,035 CNY/ton, and molybdenum iron prices decreased by 1.90% to 258,500 CNY/ton [23] - The market sentiment is supported by a stabilization in international molybdenum oxide prices and reduced mine shipments [23] Tungsten - Black tungsten concentrate prices rose by 11.43% to 536,000 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate prices increased by 12.06% to 790,000 CNY/ton [30] - Supply is tightening due to reduced mining quotas and slower production rates, while domestic demand remains stable [30] Tin - SHFE tin prices increased by 21.85% to 429,600 CNY/ton, and LME tin prices rose by 21.73% to 54,200 USD/ton [33] - Supply disruptions from key mining regions and strong demand from traditional and emerging sectors are driving price increases [33] Antimony - Antimony ingot prices rose by 1.26% to 160,500 CNY/ton, and antimony concentrate prices increased by 1.42% to 142,500 CNY/ton [42] - The supply remains tight, and demand is expected to decline as the market approaches the Lunar New Year [42]

Core Insights - A-share listed companies are accelerating the disclosure of performance forecasts for 2025, with 710 companies having reported, of which 284 are optimistic, resulting in a positive forecast ratio of 40% [1] Group 1: Performance Forecasts - Among the 710 companies that disclosed forecasts, 43 expect slight increases, 57 have turned losses into profits, 4 will maintain profitability, and 180 anticipate profit growth [2] - 295 companies expect a net profit growth of over 10%, with 237 expecting over 30%, 183 over 50%, and 67 over 100% [2] - Notable companies with high expected net profit growth include Southern Precision, Shanghai Yizhong, and SAIC Motor, with Southern Precision projecting a net profit of 300 million to 370 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 1130% to 1417% [2] Group 2: Industry Performance - The industries showing strong performance include non-ferrous metals, biomedicine, semiconductors, hardware equipment, chemicals, and automotive parts [4] - In the non-ferrous metals sector, companies like Xianglu Tungsten, Zijin Mining, and Northern Rare Earth are performing well due to rising product prices and improved downstream demand [4] - Xianglu Tungsten expects a net profit of 12.5 million to 18 million yuan, significantly turning losses into profits, supported by rising tungsten prices and improved market conditions [4] Group 3: Specific Company Insights - WuXi AppTec anticipates a revenue of approximately 45.456 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 15.84%, and a net profit of around 19.15 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of approximately 102.65% [3] - Zhongke Blue News expects a revenue of 1.83 billion to 1.85 billion yuan, with a net profit growth of 366.51% to 376.51% [5] - Shanghai Yizhong forecasts a net profit of 60 million to 70 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 760.18% to 903.54%, driven by the inclusion of its core product in the national medical insurance directory [6] Group 4: Underperforming Industries - The real estate, textile and apparel, and photovoltaic industries are facing performance pressures, with only one out of 31 real estate companies reporting profits [7] - In the photovoltaic sector, companies like Tongwei Co., TCL Zhonghuan, and Trina Solar are expected to incur losses due to rising costs of key raw materials [7] - Retail companies are experiencing significant performance divergence, with many optimizing store layouts and closing unprofitable locations to enhance overall profitability [7]

Group 1 - The stock of Jinli Permanent Magnet (06680.HK) increased by nearly 5%, reaching a price of 23.64 HKD as of the report time [1] - The trading volume for Jinli Permanent Magnet was 335 million HKD [1]

Company Summary - Jinli Permanent Magnet (金力永磁) shares increased by nearly 5%, reaching HKD 23.64 with a trading volume of HKD 335 million [1] - The company announced an earnings upgrade, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of between RMB 660 million and RMB 760 million for the year 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 127% to 161% [1] - Jinli's product output and sales have reached historical highs, reinforcing its position as a leader in the global rare earth permanent magnet industry [1] - The company has commenced small-scale deliveries of products in the fields of robotic motor rotors and magnetic materials, as well as low-altitude flying vehicles for the 2025 fiscal year [1] Industry Insights - CITIC Securities recently reported that the strategic importance of global rare earth resources continues to rise, marking the entry of the rare earth industry into a new era of high-quality development [1] - On the supply side, quota controls and regulatory policies are expected to strengthen, leading to a rigid supply logic [1] - On the demand side, emerging sectors such as electric vehicles, humanoid robots, and the low-altitude economy are anticipated to drive long-term high growth in demand [1] - The firm forecasts that starting in 2026, the global supply-demand gap for rare earths may continue to widen, with rare earth prices expected to remain stable or increase, enhancing the profitability of the industry chain [1]