Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry in China [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes a long-term perspective on the market, suggesting that despite short-term volatility in precious metals, the long-term bull market remains intact due to unresolved U.S. debt issues [7][12] - The zinc sector is highlighted as an overlooked material benefiting from the re-industrialization in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, with expectations for price increases due to supply tightness [7][13] - The copper sector is viewed positively, with the gold-to-copper ratio reaching historical highs, indicating potential for copper price increases amid supply constraints [7][14] - For precious metals, investors are advised to wait for price stabilization before increasing positions, as significant price fluctuations have been observed recently [7][15] Summary by Sections 1. Non-Ferrous Metals - The report discusses the dynamics of precious metals, noting significant price drops in gold and silver, with gold prices reaching $4,880 per ounce and silver prices at $85 per ounce during a recent week [7][12] - The zinc market is expected to benefit from increased demand driven by infrastructure projects in developing regions, with a noted decrease in zinc smelting fees indicating supply constraints [7][13] - The copper market is projected to maintain upward momentum due to a high gold-to-copper ratio and ongoing supply challenges from major mining companies [7][14] - The report suggests a cautious approach to precious metals, recommending that investors wait for market stabilization before making new investments [7][15] 2. Steel Industry - The steel industry is experiencing a weak fundamental outlook as it approaches the seasonal low around the Spring Festival, with a slight decrease in iron output and weakening demand for rebar [16][21] - Inventory levels show a divergence between social and steel mill stocks, with total steel inventory at 891 thousand tons, reflecting a 2.56% weekly increase [23] - Steel prices have generally declined, with the overall steel price index down by 0.20%, and specific products like cold-rolled steel experiencing a 0.44% decrease [35][36] 3. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in December 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 69.09%, indicating strong supply growth in the new energy sector [39] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with December 2025 production reaching 1.5858 million units, a 9.02% increase year-on-year [43] - Lithium prices have shown a notable decline, with the average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate at 159,500 yuan per ton, reflecting a 5.62% decrease [48][49]

Core Viewpoint - The significant disparity in performance among gold stocks is attributed to the ability of some fund managers to adjust their portfolios in advance, avoiding major downturns, while others did not, leading to substantial losses [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent decline in gold stocks has seen some funds experience minimal drawdowns, while others have nearly erased their gains from the past year, highlighting the importance of understanding the true sentiment of capital in the market [3]. - Many investors rely solely on market trends and news, which can lead to poor investment decisions, as the underlying capital participation varies significantly among stocks within the same sector [3][4]. Group 2: Case Studies - An example is provided of an investor who faced significant losses due to relying on price movements and news, illustrating the pitfalls of not recognizing the underlying trading logic [4][5]. - The investor's experience demonstrates that stocks can appear to be on the verge of collapse or recovery based solely on price charts, without considering the actual trading activity of larger funds [10][12]. Group 3: Quantitative Data Insights - Utilizing quantitative data, such as "institutional inventory," can reveal the active participation of large funds, helping investors discern market realities beyond superficial price movements [8][10]. - The analysis of institutional inventory data shows that sustained activity indicates ongoing interest from large funds, while a decline suggests a lack of interest, which can lead to misleading price movements [10][12]. Group 4: Advantages of Quantitative Tools - Quantitative tools simplify complex trading data into intuitive indicators, enabling even novice investors to make informed decisions without being swayed by emotional reactions to market fluctuations [13]. - The proactive adjustments made by fund managers using quantitative analysis exemplify the effectiveness of this approach in navigating market volatility [13][14]. Group 5: Long-term Investment Perspective - Recent market corrections are viewed as temporary emotional releases rather than signs of a trend reversal, encouraging a long-term investment mindset [14]. - Investors are advised to enhance their understanding of market dynamics through quantitative tools, fostering a more stable and confident approach to investment decisions [14].

一顿操作猛如虎，基金净值已更新，谁是基金中的王者，谁又垫底，请看数据： | 基金简称 PK | | | 最新净使 !! 手의则面原因人 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 银河核心优 ... C | 1.1329 | | 9.86% | 8 | | | 016981 | 2026-2-3 | | | | | 2 | 银河核心优 ... A | 1.1458 | | 9.86% | 8 | | | 011629 | 2026-2-3 | | | | | 3 | 银华成长智... A | 1.3371 | | 8.96% | 8 | | | 024455 | 2026-2-3 | | | | | 4 | 银华成长智 ... C | 1.3328 | | 8.96% | 27 | | | 024456 | 2026-2-3 | | | | | 5 | 广发上海金E ... C | 2.3002 | | 8.40% | 7 | | | 008987 | 2026-2-3 | | | | | 6 | 广发上海金E ... A | 2.3448 | 8.40 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. has stated that its stock price has not experienced abnormal fluctuations despite a cumulative deviation of -13.77% over three consecutive trading days, as per the Shanghai Stock Exchange regulations [1]. Summary by Categories Stock Price Movement - As of February 2, 2026, the cumulative deviation of the company's stock price over the trading days of January 29, January 30, and February 2 is -13.77%, which does not meet the threshold for abnormal trading fluctuations [1]. Regulatory Compliance - The company is committed to monitoring stock price fluctuations and will adhere to relevant regulations regarding information disclosure [1].

湖南黄金触及涨停，晓程科技涨超10%，山金国际、山东黄金、中金黄金、赤峰黄金等跌幅收窄。 (本文来自第一财经) ...

Group 1 - The recent surge in gold and silver prices was driven by speculative buying, leading to record highs, with gold reaching $5,598 and silver hitting $117 per ounce in January 2026 [1][2] - Following the peak, there was a dramatic decline, with silver dropping 26% in a single day and gold falling 9%, marking the worst single-day performance in over a decade [2][4] - The decline in the metals market was exacerbated by a combination of macroeconomic factors, including a shift in Federal Reserve policy expectations and profit-taking by investors [4][5] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, particularly the nomination of Kevin Warsh, shifted market expectations from easing to tightening, leading to a stronger dollar and negatively impacting commodity prices [4][5] - The market experienced a "technical adjustment" due to excessive long positions and increased margin requirements from exchanges, which raised costs for short-term speculative trading [5][6] - The volatility in precious metals, especially gold, triggered a broader sell-off in the entire metals sector, affecting industrial and minor metals as well [6][9] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the recent downturn may not signify the end of the bull market for precious metals, with expectations of a rebound driven by ongoing central bank purchases and investor demand [7][8] - Short-term price fluctuations are anticipated, with potential buying opportunities identified in the $4,800 to $4,900 range for gold, while copper and aluminum markets are expected to face supply-demand challenges [8][9] - Despite the recent panic, the long-term drivers for the metals sector remain intact, indicating that the current market conditions may present selective investment opportunities rather than widespread undervaluation [9]

Gold Companies - Shandong Gold (600547) is a leading domestic gold mining company with strong state-owned background, focusing on the Jiaodong Peninsula and possessing several top-tier gold mines, ensuring a complete gold industry chain from exploration to processing [1][12] - Chifeng Gold (600988) is a pioneer in internationalization within the gold industry, with high-grade core mining resources and significant cost advantages, actively expanding overseas projects in countries like Laos and Ghana [1][12] - Zijin Mining (601899) is a global mining giant with gold and copper as its core businesses, boasting extensive mineral resource layouts and advanced mining management techniques, providing strong support during market fluctuations [1][12] - Zhongjin Gold (600489) is a state-owned enterprise with a comprehensive gold industry chain, strong resource acquisition capabilities, and significant market presence in gold processing and circulation [1][12] - Western Gold (601069) is a leading gold mining company in Xinjiang, leveraging regional resource advantages and optimizing mining processes to enhance competitiveness [1][12] - Hunan Gold (002155) operates in both gold and antimony sectors, with a complete industry chain and strong market position in rare metals, effectively mitigating price volatility risks [1][12] - Yintai Gold (000975) focuses on gold and silver mining, with competitive mining costs and advanced recovery rates, continuously enhancing profitability through resource exploration [1][12] - Hengbang Shares (002237) is a leading gold smelting company with advanced technology and a complete industry chain, ensuring stable profitability and strong market presence [1][12] - Xiaocheng Technology (300139) combines gold mining with integrated circuits, benefiting from overseas gold assets and enhancing profitability through diversified operations [1][12] - Shengda Resources (000603) is a comprehensive precious metal resource developer with a stable production capacity and strong market presence in gold and silver [1][12] Silver Companies - Yuguang Gold and Lead (600531) is a leading silver smelting company with advanced technology and high recovery rates, focusing on high-value-added silver products [2][14] - Xingye Mining (000426) is a leading silver and multi-metal mining company with strong resource reserves and high recovery rates, effectively mitigating silver price volatility risks [2][14] - Chihong Zinc and Germanium (600497) focuses on silver and zinc-germanium, leveraging abundant resources and advanced mining techniques to maintain strong market competitiveness [2][14] - Zhongjin Lingnan (000060) is a large non-ferrous metal enterprise with a strong silver business, emphasizing technological innovation and resource utilization [2][14] - Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630) integrates copper smelting with silver recovery, maintaining high recovery rates and product quality [2][14] - Jiangxi Copper (600362) is a comprehensive copper giant with a strong silver business, focusing on multi-metal development and technological innovation [2][14] - Western Mining (601168) is a multi-metal mining company with significant silver resources, emphasizing production capacity upgrades and cost control [2][14] - Yundeng Technology (000409) combines silver mining with smart mining technology, enhancing operational efficiency and reducing costs [2][14] - Guoyan Platinum (600459) is a leader in precious metal deep processing, focusing on high-end silver products and maintaining a strong market position [2][14] - Western Materials (002149) specializes in rare metal processing with a focus on high-end silver products, ensuring stable market demand and high added value [2][14]

Market Overview - A-shares reached a low point but rebounded across the board, while Hong Kong stocks opened high but experienced a mid-day drop due to negative news, closing with a slight increase of 0.22% [1] - Gold stocks saw a rebound after a significant drop, with the expectation that the WanGuo Gold Group will report a profit of approximately 1.4 to 1.5 billion HKD for the fiscal year 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 143% to 161% [1] Industry Insights - The gaming industry faces potential tax rate adjustments, with rumors suggesting an increase from 6% to 32%, although experts indicate that such a high tax rate is not feasible under current VAT laws [2] - The release of Google's generative world model, Genie 3, has caused significant sell-offs in the gaming and advertising sectors, although experts believe it is premature to consider it a disruptive force in the gaming industry [2] Company Developments - Cambricon Technologies experienced a drop of over 14% due to negative reports, impacting the performance of the Sci-Tech 50 Index [3] - CIMC Group discussed its data center business, reporting over 1,000 MW of cumulative delivery and over 17,000 modules in various regions, with a focus on AI and cloud computing [4] - CIMC Group's stock rose nearly 15%, driven by its aerospace-related subsidiary, which also saw significant gains [4] Sector Performance - The storage industry saw a strong performance from major players like SanDisk and Micron, with SanDisk reporting a remarkable increase of 15.44% [5] - Macau's gaming revenue for January reached 22.633 billion MOP, a year-on-year increase of 24%, with expectations for further growth in February due to the Lunar New Year [5] - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing a strong demand for equipment replacement, with a projected need for approximately 200,000 excavators by 2026 [6] Technology Advancements - Apple reported a 16% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1 of FY2026, driven by strong iPhone sales and recovery in the Chinese market [7] - The Zhejiang University unveiled a humanoid robot, Bolt, capable of reaching speeds of 10 m/s, marking a significant breakthrough in humanoid robotics [8] Corporate Expansion - China Merchants Port is expanding its overseas operations with new shipping routes, enhancing trade efficiency between North America and Europe [10] - The company operates 39 ports and 375 berths, with a focus on optimizing its overseas asset structure and expanding into emerging markets [11]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huayuan Securities indicates that gold and silver prices have recently experienced fluctuations, with a long-term outlook suggesting that the "rate cut trade" and "Trump 2.0" will continue to catalyze price movements, supported by central bank gold purchases amid a backdrop of protectionism and great power competition [1][4]. Group 1: Precious Metals Market Overview - Gold prices have risen by 8.04% to $4981.85 per ounce, while silver prices increased by 13.65% to $103.19 per ounce over the past two weeks [2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw gold prices rise by 12.51% to 1161.42 yuan per gram, and silver prices surged by 24.28% to 27941 yuan per kilogram [2]. - Palladium prices increased by 3.70% to $1820 per ounce, while platinum prices slightly decreased by 0.04% to $2300 per ounce [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold and Silver Prices - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates, with a 10 to 2 vote, indicating a stable economic expansion in the U.S. and a focus on both inflation and employment risks [3]. - Trump's nomination of Kevin Walsh for the next Federal Reserve Chair is seen as a potential influence on future interest rate decisions, with discussions around rate cuts expected [3]. - A temporary compromise in Congress has averted a government shutdown, which may impact market stability and investor sentiment [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The dual themes of "Trump 2.0" and "rate cut trade" are expected to provide strong momentum for gold prices, with significant events to watch in early February, including U.S. employment data and CPI figures [4]. - Central bank gold purchases are projected to remain robust, with China's central bank increasing its gold reserves for 14 consecutive months, reaching 7415 million ounces by the end of December 2025 [5].

以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点 贵金属：短期贵金属巨震，但是年内仍将降息支撑贵金属价格 价格方面，周内伦敦黄金价格为4981.85美元/盎司，环比1月23日+35.60美元/盎司，涨幅为0.72%。周内 伦敦白银价格为103.19美元/盎司，环比1月23日+4.19美元/盎司，涨幅为4.23%。 数据方面，美国11月耐用品订单环比初值5.3%，前值-2.1%，预期3.8%。美国美联储FOMC利率决策(下 限)3.5%，前值3.5%，预期3.5%。美国美联储FOMC利率决策(上限)3.75%，前值3.75%，预期3.75%。美 国1月24日当周首次申请失业救济人数20.9万人，前值20万人，预期20.5万人。美国12月PPI同比3%，前 值3%，预期2.8%。 本周美联储议息会议维持联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%之间。在本次决议中，美联储的两 位理事斯蒂芬·米兰和克里斯托弗·沃勒投出了反对票，他们倾向于降息25个基点。周五，特朗普总统宣 布将提名凯文·沃什担任下届美联储主席。沃什在美联储任职期间一贯对通胀保持警惕，经常支持更高 利率。但去年他转而呼应特朗普观点，认为利率可以大幅降低。 华鑫证券近 ...