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中信证券航空2026年投资策略:重视航司盈利拐点 重构繁荣周期兑现期或至
智通财经网· 2025-12-05 00:49
智通财经APP获悉,中信证券发布研报称,民航机队产能释放受新增飞机低引进、发动机检修、航材备 件等因素制约,旺季机队产能利用率愈发临近极限状态,近期公商务需求持续复苏,期待2026年政策端 进一步刺激因私出行,再次强调"重视航司盈利拐点"。三季度大航的国际线客公里收益媲美国内,改变 2015年以来国际线收益水平偏弱的局面,"向远处飞、向国际飞、向新兴市场飞"的策略在低油价、国内 需求弱复苏背景下进一步摊薄单位扣油成本。2025年大航有望实现疫后首次利润转正,成为利润释放周 期起点,继续看好未来两年航司业绩释放。 中信证券主要观点如下: 按图索骥:数观季报挖掘边际变化信号,短期公商务需求持续恢复有望与汇率温和升值共振。 特征之一,根据样本航司公告,国内航司国际线RRPK(客公里收益)媲美国内线,运力倾斜国际远程航 线,在低油价&国内需求弱复苏的背景下,通过运力增投国际远程航线的策略提升飞机利用率、摊薄单 位成本,同时通过提升中转旅客比例增厚座收对收益端贡献的策略或优于单纯囿于国内线客公里收益的 经营策略。 之二,航油成本压力的缓解仍为利润释放重要因素,发动机检修规模及阶段经营策略带来的机队利用率 差异推动单位扣 ...
2025年中国民航飞行程序设计和管理研讨会举办
据悉,为使中国民航飞行程序工作更好地服务中国民航发展需求,达到世界先进水平,民航局飞标司和 中国民航大学于2024年12月20日成立了飞行程序现代化工作室。工作室依托中航大师资,汇聚局方、航 空公司、机场、空管、科研院所、飞机和航电设备制造商等各方力量,在飞行程序技术攻关、标准完 善、协助检查、教育培训、科普宣传等5个方面开展了相关工作,持续推动中国民航飞行程序实现系统 化、标准化、自动化、智能化。(编辑:张彤 校对:张薇 审核:程凌) (中国民航大学供图) 中国民航网 通讯员齐雁楠、李昂 报道:12月2日,2025年中国民航飞行程序设计和管理研讨会在中国民 航大学举办。来自民航局飞行标准司、民航各地区管理局及部分监管局、民航局空管局、中国民航大 学、民航飞行学院、中国民航科学技术院、飞行校验中心、部分飞行程序设计单位、国航等单位的60余 名代表参加。 飞行程序是"组织和实施飞行、开展空管指挥的主要依据",其设计质量与飞行安全、航班正常和机场效 率密切相关。为不断提高飞行程序质量,民航局制定了一系列规范性文件,并推动相关规章标准在行业 进一步落实。研讨会上,7个地区管理局,民航大学,空管局空域中心、情报中心, ...
你的靠窗座被锁了:对话江苏省消保委 别让“选座自由”被标价
Xin Jing Bao· 2025-12-04 09:42
"春秋航空/南京-兰州(9C6188)航线锁座比例超过60%、深圳航空/深圳-湛江(ZH9327)航线锁座 比例超过50%"。 近日,江苏省消费者权益保护委员会(以下简称"江苏省消保委")针对国内10家航空公司的调查,再度 揭开了航空公司机票锁座的"潜规则"。根据调查结果,这些航空公司的经济舱均存在锁座行为,购票阶 段锁座比例介于19.9%到62.1%之间,均值达到38.7%。 这也就意味着,靠前、靠窗、靠过道等较为便利、舒适的座位常被单独锁定,要么无法选择,要么需要 额外付费或用积分/里程等权益兑换。这一行为看似是航司对服务的层级细分,实则是通过锁定优质座 位、变相增加收益的手段。 | 航司 | (2) 2 | 出发 | 航线及航班号 | 经济脱 | 被锁 | 锁座比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日期 | 日期 | | 座位总数 | 座位数里 | | | 东方航空 | 11/11 | 11/14 | 直宾一南京(MU2714) | 150 | Q3 | 42.0% | | 南方航空 | 11/13 | 11/17 | 南京一大连(CZ ...
中国贸促会组织中国企业家代表团与美中贸委会及其会员企业交流座谈
人民网-国际频道 原创稿· 2025-12-04 09:01
任鸿斌表示,半个世纪以来,中国贸促会与美中贸委会密切交流合作,为拉紧中美企业利益纽带、促进两国 经贸往来、推动中美关系发展作出积极贡献。面向未来,中国贸促会愿与美中贸委会一道,继续做中美友好的践 行者、中美互利合作的促进者、全球产供链稳定畅通的维护者,为推动中美工商界交流合作作出新的更大贡献, 开创更加成功的新的50年。 谭森表示,美中两国企业共同关切的核心议题,仍是美中双边关系的发展态势。我们认为,两国工商界有责 任将两国元首的共识转化为切实可行的行动,以维护双边关系的稳定与互信。 图为中国贸促会会长任鸿斌发表致辞。人民网记者 李志伟摄 来自物流、科技、金融、能源、医疗等行业的四十余家美方企业代表和中国邮政速递物流、中国工商银行、 中国国航、三一集团、泡泡玛特等中国企业代表逾80人参加活动。 人民网华盛顿12月4日电 (记者李志伟)当地时间12月3日,中国贸促会组织中国企业家代表团在华盛顿与美 中贸易全国委员会及其会员企业进行交流座谈。中国贸促会会长任鸿斌、中国驻美国使馆经商处公使吕江、美中 贸委会会长谭森等出席并致辞。 当地时间12月3日,中国贸促会组织中国企业家代表团在华盛顿与美中贸易全国委员会及其会员 ...
中银晨会聚焦-20251204
Core Insights - The report highlights that China National Airlines is the only flag carrier in China and has entered the top tier of global air transport companies, with a comprehensive international route network and a balanced domestic and international presence [1][5][6] - The growth rate of China's civil aviation fleet is showing a "step-down" trend, influenced by global supply chain disruptions, leading to a decline in major aircraft manufacturers' order fulfillment capabilities [1][8] - The continuous recovery of the tourism market is expected to boost air travel demand, with the average price of aviation kerosene decreasing compared to the same period last year, enhancing the company's profitability [1][8] Company Overview - China National Airlines was established in October 2002 through the merger of China International Airlines, China Aviation Corporation, and China Southwest Airlines, and it went public in Hong Kong and London in December 2004, followed by a listing on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in August 2006 [6] - The company's main business is air passenger services, which typically accounts for nearly 90% of total revenue, projected to be 91% in 2024 [6] - Revenue for 2024 is expected to reach CNY 166.699 billion, representing an 18.14% year-on-year growth, with a gross profit margin of 5.11% [6] Industry Performance - Over the past 15 years, the air passenger transport volume has increased by 172.8%, with domestic passenger transport volume expected to reach 730 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.86%, marking a historical high [7][8] - The cargo and mail transport volume is projected to reach 8.983 million tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.15% [7] - The commercial aviation market in China is dominated by three major airlines: China National Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines, which together accounted for 62.64% of total transport turnover in 2024 [7] Key Factors Influencing Performance - Aircraft supply is constrained due to the "step-down" growth trend of China's civil aviation fleet and disruptions in global supply chains affecting aircraft manufacturers' order fulfillment [8] - Travel demand is expected to rise as per capita flight frequency in China has room for improvement compared to developed countries, alongside a steady increase in GDP and a recovering tourism market [8] - Oil prices and exchange rates are critical factors affecting airline profitability, with the average price of aviation kerosene at USD 86.01 per barrel in the first ten months of 2025, down 10.90% year-on-year [8] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for China National Airlines from 2025 to 2027 are CNY 174.715 billion, CNY 188.020 billion, and CNY 205.245 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.8%, 7.6%, and 9.2% respectively [9] - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is CNY 1.561 billion, CNY 6.503 billion, and CNY 10.265 billion, with earnings per share (EPS) of CNY 0.09, CNY 0.37, and CNY 0.59 [9]
中国企业家代表团与美中贸委会及其会员企业交流座谈
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-12-04 00:29
中国企业家代表团与美中贸委会及其会员企业交流座谈 中新社华盛顿12月3日电 (记者 陈孟统)当地时间12月3日,中国贸促会组织中国企业家代表团在华盛顿 与美中贸易全国委员会及其会员企业交流座谈。 中国贸促会会长任鸿斌、中国驻美国使馆经商处公使吕江、美中贸委会会长谭森等出席并致辞。 当地时间12月3日,华盛顿,中国贸促会组织中国企业家代表团与美中贸易全国委员会及其会员企 业举行交流座谈。中新社记者 陈孟统 摄 中新经纬版权所有,未经书面授权,任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview"),看更多精彩财经资讯。 谭森表示,美国工商界依然是推动美中接触与交流的坚定声音。中国将在2026年主办亚太经合组织 (APEC)会议,这为美中双方开展更深入的合作提供了机遇。美国企业非常渴望以建设性、务实的方式 参与其中。无论是通过政策交流、商业对话,还是具体领域的专业讨论,他们都会参与,并将发挥积极 作用。 联邦快递、赛默飞世尔科技、贝宝、埃克森美孚、欧加隆等美方企业代表和中国邮政速递物流、中国工 商银行、中国国航、三一集团、泡泡玛特等中国企业代表逾80人参加活 ...
部分经济舱锁座率达一半以上!这是变相薅羊毛行为
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-03 15:43
Core Viewpoint - The excessive "seat locking" behavior by airlines is identified as a practice that limits consumer choice and increases passenger costs, which has been highlighted in a recent consumer survey report by the Jiangsu Provincial Consumer Protection Committee [1][3][12]. Group 1: Seat Locking Practices - A survey of 10 major domestic airlines revealed that the proportion of locked seats in economy class ranges from 19.9% to 62.1%, with an average of 38.7% [1][8]. - Airlines typically restrict access to preferred seats (such as those in the front row, window, and aisle) while only offering less desirable seats for free selection, effectively forcing consumers to pay for better options [1][8][12]. - The practice of locking seats is often justified by airlines as necessary for safety and special service needs, but the extent of seat locking suggests it has become a revenue-generating service [3][10]. Group 2: Consumer Rights and Complaints - Many consumers express frustration over the inability to select preferred seats without incurring additional costs, which they believe undermines their rights as ticket holders [4][5]. - The lack of transparency regarding the criteria for seat locking and the absence of clear communication about free selection options violate consumer rights, including the right to know and the right to fair trading [10][12]. - The Jiangsu Provincial Consumer Protection Committee has initiated discussions with the airlines and expects them to address consumer complaints and ensure equal seat selection opportunities for all passengers [3][12]. Group 3: Regulatory Response - The Jiangsu Provincial Consumer Protection Committee has mandated that the airlines submit written rectification plans within 15 working days to address the issues related to seat locking [12]. - Continuous monitoring of the airlines' compliance with the rectification requirements will be conducted by the consumer protection authority [12].
智通AH统计|12月3日
智通财经网· 2025-12-03 08:19
Core Insights - The article highlights the top and bottom AH share premium rates as of December 3, with Northeast Electric (00042) leading at a premium rate of 900.00% [1][2]. Group 1: Top AH Share Premium Rates - Northeast Electric (00042) has the highest premium rate at 900.00% with H-share priced at 0.270 HKD and A-share at 2.25 CNY [2]. - Hongye Futures (03678) follows with a premium rate of 276.85%, H-share at 3.240 HKD and A-share at 10.19 CNY [2]. - Sinopec Oilfield Service (01033) ranks third with a premium rate of 265.79%, H-share at 0.760 HKD and A-share at 2.32 CNY [2]. Group 2: Bottom AH Share Premium Rates - Contemporary Amperex Technology (03750) has the lowest premium rate at -4.88%, with H-share priced at 473.600 HKD and A-share at 376.08 CNY [2]. - China Merchants Bank (03968) has a premium rate of -0.25%, H-share at 51.650 HKD and A-share at 43.01 CNY [2]. - Heng Rui Medicine (01276) follows with a premium rate of 1.71%, H-share at 71.800 HKD and A-share at 60.97 CNY [2]. Group 3: Premium Deviation Values - Guanghe Communication (00638) has the highest deviation value at 49.00% [1][3]. - Northeast Electric (00042) also features prominently with a deviation value of 36.60% [1][3]. - Chenming Paper (01812) ranks third with a deviation value of 26.74% [1][3]. Group 4: Bottom Premium Deviation Values - GAC Group (02238) has the lowest deviation value at -26.76% [1][3]. - Junsheng Electronics (00699) follows with a deviation value of -18.54% [1][3]. - Jiangsu Ninghu Highway (00177) has a deviation value of -15.01% [1][3].
深度*公司*中国国航(601111):构建北京“一市两场”运营优势 打造全球领先航空公司
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-03 06:33
Core Viewpoint - China National Airlines is the only flag carrier in China and has entered the top tier of global aviation transport companies, with a broad international route network and a balanced domestic and international presence [1][2] Company Overview - China National Airlines was established in October 2002 through the merger of China International Airlines, China Aviation Corporation, and China Southwest Airlines [2] - The company primarily engages in air passenger services, with passenger business accounting for nearly 90% of total revenue under normal circumstances, projected to be 91% in 2024 [2] - Revenue for 2024 is expected to reach 166.699 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.14%, with a gross profit margin of 5.11% [2] - For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue is projected at 129.826 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.31%, with a gross profit margin of 7.06% [2] Industry Insights - Over the past 15 years, the aviation passenger transport volume has increased by 172.8%, with ticket prices gradually becoming market-driven [3] - The three major airlines in China (Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines) accounted for 62.64% of total transport turnover in 2024 [3] - Domestic passenger transport volume is expected to reach 730 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.86%, marking a historical high, while cargo transport volume is projected at 8.983 million tons, up 22.15% [3] - Key factors influencing the industry include: - Aircraft supply: The growth rate of China's civil aviation fleet is showing a "step-down" trend, affected by global supply chain disruptions and reduced delivery capabilities of major aircraft manufacturers [3] - Travel demand: There is still room for improvement in per capita flight frequency in China compared to developed countries, alongside a stable increase in per capita GDP and a booming tourism market [3] - Oil prices and exchange rates: These are critical factors affecting airline profitability, with the average price of aviation kerosene in the first ten months of 2025 at $86.01 per barrel, down 10.90% year-on-year [3] Valuation - Projected revenues for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 174.715 billion yuan, 188.020 billion yuan, and 205.245 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.8%, 7.6%, and 9.2% respectively [4] - Expected net profits attributable to shareholders are 1.561 billion yuan, 6.503 billion yuan, and 10.265 billion yuan for the same period, with EPS of 0.09, 0.37, and 0.59 yuan per share [4] - Price-to-book ratios are projected to be 3.2, 2.8, and 2.3 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]
研报掘金丨中银证券:首予中国国航“增持”评级,旅游市场持续升温有助拉动出行需求
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-12-03 06:16
格隆汇12月3日|中银证券研报指出,中国国航是中国唯一载旗航空公司,已跻身世界航空运输企业第 一阵营,拥有广泛的国际航线、均衡的国内国际网络,覆盖了中国经济发达、人口密度高的区域。目前 中国民用机队规模增速呈"下台阶式"趋势,且受全球供应链扰动等因素影响,主要飞机制造商订单交付 能力下降。旅游市场的持续升温则有助于拉动航空出行需求。今年前10月,航空煤油均价较去年同期下 降,有利于提升公司的盈利能力。首次覆盖,给予公司"增持"评级。 ...