Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of 2025, CRMW products were issued intensively in conjunction with private enterprise science and technology innovation bonds, with obvious cost - reduction and credit - enhancement effects. Currently, there is little room for participation in the secondary market. It is recommended to focus on the pricing opportunities during the primary issuance of new products. The "underlying bond + CRMW" combination under the strong guarantee of large - scale national and joint - stock banks has valuation advantages, and institutions with stable liability ends such as proprietary trading can hold them until maturity [5]. - When classified by creation entities, special attention should be paid to CRMW created by joint - stock banks [5]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Credit Bond Weekly Viewpoint: Focus on the Pricing Opportunities of CRMW Primary Issuance - CRMW is an important credit - enhancement product. In 2025, over a hundred CRMW were created by various institutions, a slight reduction from 2024. Nearly 40% of the protected underlying bonds were science and technology innovation bonds, and the protected issuers were mostly technology - based private enterprises. Commercial banks are the mainstream creation institutions, while securities companies have rarely participated since 2024, and guarantee companies such as Zhongyu Guarantee and Zhongzhai Zengxin have been active [9]. - It is difficult to participate in the secondary market of CRMW. The focus should be on the primary issuance, especially the CRMW created by joint - stock banks. The average maturity of recently issued underlying bonds is about 2 years, and the maturity considering the exercise right is generally no more than 3 years, which meets the preferences of mainstream institutions [15]. - By creation entity types: - State - owned banks: Since 2024, the frequency of state - owned banks creating CRMW has declined. The credit spread of the "CRMW + underlying bond" investment portfolio created by state - owned banks is generally low, with most spreads around 40bp since Q4 2025, and there is no excess return compared to mainstream urban investment/industrial bonds [15][17]. - Joint - stock banks: Banks such as China Zheshang Bank have created a relatively large number of CRMW. The credit spread of the "CRMW + underlying bond" investment portfolio is around 70bp, and the absolute return can exceed 2.4%, which is very attractive in a low - return environment. The higher return mainly comes from the higher coupon rate of the protected underlying bonds, and there is sufficient safety margin under the strong guarantee of CRMW [25]. - City commercial banks: Banks such as Dongguan Bank and Qingdao Bank are the main creation institutions. The returns of their "CRMW + underlying bond" portfolios are more differentiated, and the recent returns are mainly in the range of 2.1% - 2.2%, with limited attractiveness [25]. - Rural commercial banks: Only Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank participates, and the overall return of the portfolio is not high due to the strong credit quality of the credit - enhancement subject [25]. - Guarantee companies: Zhongyu Guarantee and Zhongzhai Zengxin have created a small number of CRMW in the past two years. The returns are scattered, and the "underlying bond + CRMW" portfolio has a slightly higher return due to weak liquidity, which is suitable for institutions with stable liability ends and high - risk preferences to hold until maturity [23][26]. - Secondary market opportunities are mainly concentrated in the "underlying bond + CRMW" portfolio with a maturity of less than 1 year. The primary market is the main way to participate, while the secondary market has weak liquidity. The short - term portfolio with a maturity of less than 1 year and a return of over 2.1% created by state - owned banks and strong joint - stock banks has cost - effectiveness [28]. 2. Credit Bond Weekly Review: The Enthusiasm for Medium - Term Bond Mining Continues 2.1 Negative Information Monitoring - There were no bond defaults, overdue payments, downgrades of issuer or bond ratings, or overseas rating downgrades during the week from January 26 to February 1, 2026. However, there were significant negative events for companies such as Sunshine City Group, Country Garden Real Estate Group, and Rongqiao Group [31][33]. 2.2 Primary Issuance: Net Financing Remains High, and Financing Costs Fluctuate Narrowly - The new issuance scale of credit bonds remained high, the maturity volume decreased, and the net financing remained high. From January 26 to February 1, 2026, the primary issuance of credit bonds was 307.4 billion yuan, a slight decrease from the previous period. The total repayment was 151.7 billion yuan, a 19% decrease from the previous period, and the net financing was 155.7 billion yuan [34]. - The number and scale of cancelled or postponed bond issuances remained at a low level. The financing costs of medium - and high - grade bonds fluctuated slightly. The average coupon rates of AAA and AA+ grades were 2.12% and 2.24% respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 9bp and a decrease of 7bp [35]. 2.3 Secondary Trading: Valuations Fluctuated Slightly, and 3 - year Bonds Outperformed Relatively - The valuations of credit bonds of various grades and maturities were mostly flat compared to the previous period, except for a 3bp decline in the 3 - year medium - and low - grade bonds. The risk - free interest rate fluctuated slightly, and the credit spreads were mostly flat. The term spreads of 3Y - 1Y and 5Y - 1Y of various grades almost all narrowed, with an average of about 2bp, and the AA - grade 3Y - 1Y narrowed by up to 4bp. The AA - AAA grade spread of the 3 - year bond narrowed by 4bp [37][40]. - The credit spreads of urban investment bonds in various provinces narrowed slightly, with an average narrowing of about 2bp, and the spreads in Heilongjiang and Yunnan narrowed the most. The credit spreads of industrial bonds fluctuated within ±1bp, significantly underperforming urban investment bonds, and the real estate sector widened by 3bp [42][43]. - The weekly turnover rate decreased by 0.18 percentage points to 1.85%. The issuers of the top - ten turnover bonds were mostly central and state - owned enterprises. The issuers of credit bonds with a discount of more than 10% in trading were mainly related to Country Garden, Vanke, and AVIC Industry Finance [45]. - The distribution of urban investment bonds with the largest narrowing or widening of spreads was scattered. Among industrial bonds, the top five issuers with widening spreads were mostly real - estate companies, including Times Holdings, Rongqiao, Yuzhou Hongtu, and Greenland [47][48].

Banking Sector - The banking sector is expected to see three major catalysts in 2026: 1) Interest margins are likely to stabilize as new loan rates reach a low point, and deposit repricing effects will continue to improve banks' funding costs [6][7] 2) Risks related to real estate exposure are expected to have peaked, with significant progress in mitigating financial risks in the real estate sector [6] 3) Retail business may show marginal improvement as credit risks ease and wealth management activities are expected to activate [6][7] - Investment strategies for 2026 suggest focusing on four main lines: 1) Increase allocation to high-quality city commercial banks with strong earnings elasticity, recommending Hangzhou Bank and paying attention to Ningbo Bank, Nanjing Bank, Chongqing Bank, Qingdao Bank, and Xiamen Bank [5][7] 2) Allocate to high-dividend large banks, with a focus on Bank of China Hong Kong (H), CITIC Bank (H), China Construction Bank (H), and China Merchants Bank [5][7] 3) Pay attention to Shanghai Bank and Industrial Bank due to expected strong redemption of convertible bonds [5][7] 4) Consider banks with significant valuation discounts and potential for performance recovery, such as Minsheng Bank and Ping An Bank [5][7] Mechanical Equipment - The CDU liquid cooling pump is expected to benefit from the accelerated construction of AI data centers, as it plays a crucial role in regulating coolant flow and pressure, constituting 30%-40% of the liquid cooling system's value [9][10] - The market size for CDU liquid pumps is projected to reach between $1.139 billion and $1.544 billion in 2026, driven by the increasing demand for liquid cooling solutions as chip power exceeds the limits of air cooling [9][11] - The cooling source side of the liquid cooling system is also expected to benefit from the rapid development of AI data centers, with the global market for cooling water units projected to grow from approximately 105.21 billion yuan in 2024 to nearly 167.33 billion yuan by 2031 [10] Commercial Aerospace - SpaceX's application for an orbital data center system aims to reduce energy consumption from ground data centers, which may create significant incremental opportunities for rocket launch service providers and satellite manufacturers [22][24] - The acceleration of low Earth orbit satellite constellations is expected to drive domestic leading rocket launch service providers to actively expand their satellite constellation-related businesses, creating new growth opportunities in upstream supply chain segments [22][24] - The construction of orbital data centers is anticipated to significantly reduce energy consumption, benefiting both rocket launch service providers and satellite manufacturers [24] Fixed Income - The manufacturing PMI for January showed a significant seasonal decline, with the index at 49.3%, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [14][15] - The service sector PMI slightly decreased, while the construction sector's activity index fell below 40%, indicating a need for further economic stabilization measures [19] - The credit market is expected to face structural opportunities despite a less favorable recovery outlook in February, with a focus on medium to high-rated city investment bonds [42][47] Airline Industry - Air China is projected to report a net loss of approximately 1.3 billion to 1.9 billion yuan for 2025, with Q4 losses expected to be between 3.17 billion and 3.77 billion yuan, indicating an increase in losses compared to the previous year [27][28] - Despite the projected losses, operational data for 2025 shows steady improvement, with available seat kilometers (ASK) and revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) increasing by 3.24% and 5.85% respectively [27][28] - The long-term demand for civil aviation in China is viewed positively, supported by the company's strong route network [28] Steel Industry - Fangda Special Steel is expected to see a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projected between 835 million and 998 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 236.90% to 302.67% [31][32] - The growth is attributed to increased production and sales volumes, along with a decline in raw material costs, which have helped restore steel margins [31][32] - The company is focusing on refined management and cost reduction strategies, alongside potential asset injections from its parent group [32] Home Appliances - The home appliance industry is experiencing a decline in production and sales, particularly in the air conditioning and refrigerator segments, with significant year-on-year decreases reported [34] - The introduction of innovative products like Clawbot is expected to reshape the AI assistant market, enhancing consumer engagement and operational efficiency [35] - Companies like Ecovacs and Ninebot are projected to see substantial profit growth in 2025, driven by new product launches and increased market penetration [36]

Core Viewpoint - The successful launch of satellites by major Chinese banks marks a significant step in enhancing their financial services through advanced technology, particularly in risk management and data communication capabilities [1][2][3]. Group 1: Satellite Launches and Technology - China Merchants Bank launched the "Zhaoyin Jinkui" satellite, while Shanghai Pudong Development Bank launched the "Puyin Shuzhi" satellite, contributing to the formation of a low-orbit satellite communication matrix [1][2]. - The satellites are part of the "Tianqi Constellation," which aims to provide integrated IoT data communication services globally, enhancing capabilities in various sectors such as energy and agriculture [2]. Group 2: Risk Management and Financial Services - Satellite technology enhances banks' risk management capabilities by providing reliable financial information, thus addressing issues of information asymmetry [3]. - China Merchants Bank's self-developed risk management system utilizes high-resolution satellite imagery to monitor construction progress with over 95% accuracy, improving traditional post-loan inspection efficiency [3]. Group 3: Applications in Financial Services - Satellite technology can expand the coverage and precision of financial services, particularly in supply chain finance, rural finance, and green finance [4]. - Ping An Bank uses IoT devices monitored by satellites to track dairy cattle, addressing collateral issues and improving post-loan management [4]. Group 4: Resilience and Stability in Financial Infrastructure - Satellite communication technology helps banks maintain operations during ground communication disruptions, enhancing the resilience of financial infrastructure [5]. - China Merchants Bank is testing low-orbit satellite communication for disaster recovery systems, ensuring critical financial services can be quickly restored in extreme scenarios [5]. Group 5: Digital Transformation and Industry Impact - The satellite launches reflect the deepening digital transformation of the banking sector, enhancing communication systems and supporting the commercial satellite industry [6]. - Participation in the aerospace industry allows banks to improve their financial service capabilities in strategic areas while creating technological barriers [7]. Group 6: Challenges and Future Trends - While satellite technology offers unique advantages, it may lead to data monopolies and compliance risks, necessitating clear legal frameworks [7]. - The trend may result in a tiered ecosystem where major banks develop their satellite constellations, while smaller banks rely on data procurement from third-party services [7].

2026年，银行经营工作怎么干？在低利率环境下，银行业如何稳增长、防风险、促转型，成为新一年经 营管理工作的核心命题。 近期，国有大行、股份行以及多家头部城商行、农商行相继召开2026年经营管理工作会议，聚焦服务实 体经济、优化业务结构、强化风险防控和推进数智化转型等重点任务，对全年经营工作"划重点"。 国有大行稳中求进服务实体是首位 从国有大行的2026年经营管理工作会议部署看，"稳中求进"仍是主基调，服务国家战略和实体经济被普 遍置于首要位置。 一方面，国有大行普遍将加大对重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节的金融支持，围绕科技创新、普惠金融 等方向持续发力，做好金融稳定的"压舱石"。相关表述中，"专注主责主业""加大重点领域融资供给"为 高频词。 工商银行表示：突出主责主业，投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，加大贷款投放、债券投资力度，做深做 精"五篇大文章"，全力服务"四稳"；加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域，以及"十 五五"重大工程、重大项目；靠前服务"两重一薄"，积极惠民生促消费，助力服务业扩能提质。 农业银行2026年将加大重点领域融资供给。坚持投资于物与投资于人紧密结合，持续加大"两重""两 ...

（上接1版） 此外，数智化转型成为多家国有大行2026年工作的关键词。建设银行表示，要加快推动集团数智化转 型，持续提升企业级运营能力；交通银行则将深入推进"人工智能+"行动，通过AI技术重构业务流程、 创新服务模式。 股份行提质增效 发掘新的增长动能 股份行在2026年工作部署中，更多体现出结构调整和提质增效的紧迫感。 城农商行做深本土 打造差异化竞争优势 头部城商行和主流农商行的2026年经营管理工作会议，则呈现出更鲜明的区域特色和差异化竞争发展趋 势。 一方面，城商行和农商行普遍提出要深度融入地方发展大局，围绕区域产业链、县域经济等做深做细金 融服务，突出"贴近客户、贴近市场"的比较优势。"要因地制宜找准抓实农商着力点，服务全省经济社 会关键领域实现重大突破。"浙江农商联合银行董事长林仁方说。 另一方面，稳健经营和风险底线意识进一步强化。不少城商行和农商行在会议中明确，要提升资产质 量，通过强化内控和合规管理。 比如，厦门银行尤为重视深入业务前端把握风险。该行2026年将强化资产质量管控，前置风险预警，加 强全流程信贷管理，多措并举推动资产质量稳健向好；增强内控合规管理，筑牢制度流程化基础等。 同时，部 ...

◎记者 黄坤 2026年，银行经营工作怎么干？在低利率环境下，银行业如何稳增长、防风险、促转型，成为新一年经 营管理工作的核心命题。 近期，国有大行、股份行以及多家头部城商行、农商行相继召开2026年经营管理工作会议，聚焦服务实 体经济、优化业务结构、强化风险防控和推进数智化转型等重点任务，对全年经营工作"划重点"。 国有大行稳中求进 服务实体是首位 从国有大行的2026年经营管理工作会议部署看，"稳中求进"仍是主基调，服务国家战略和实体经济被普 遍置于首要位置。 一方面，国有大行普遍将加大对重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节的金融支持，围绕科技创新、普惠金融 等方向持续发力，做好金融稳定的"压舱石"。相关表述中，"专注主责主业""加大重点领域融资供给"为 高频词。 工商银行表示：突出主责主业，投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，加大贷款投放、债券投资力度，做深做 精"五篇大文章"，全力服务"四稳"；加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域，以及"十 五五"重大工程、重大项目；靠前服务"两重一薄"，积极惠民生促消费，助力服务业扩能提质。 农业银行2026年将加大重点领域融资供给。坚持投资于物与投资于人紧密结合，持续 ...

一场突如其来的贵金属风暴，让全球贵金属投资者度过了一个无眠的周末。1月31日，纽约金盘中最大 跌幅突破12%，击穿5000美元/盎司大关；纽约银单日最大跌幅超35%，创下历史纪录。那么，国内贵金 属期货和A股贵金属板块将如何演绎？贵金属牛市是否已经终结？ 贵金属上演黑色周末行情，白银单日跌幅创纪录 北京时间2026年1月31日，全球贵金属市场遭遇了一场前所未有的恐慌性抛售。纽约金价格从约5400美 元的高位坠落，最低触及4700美元/盎司，最终收报4907.5美元附近，单日暴跌9.3%。 1月30日，A股贵金属板块已下跌8.93%，板块内多数个股以跌停板收场。与贵金属相关的场内基金也遭 遇重创，多只黄金股ETF跌停。然而，A股贵金属板块1月30日的下跌，可能更多反映的是1月30日贵金 属价格下跌行情。 而1月31日，黄金、白银价格出现了更大幅度的下跌，恐慌情绪亦有所加剧。A股贵金属板块个股虽然 已经经历了普遍跌停，但恐怕尚未反映1月31日贵金属价格下跌的负面冲击。 所以，短期来看，市场的恐慌情绪可能尚未出清，仍不排除2月2日贵金属板块延续1月30日板块情绪的 可能。 白银市场的表现更为惨烈。纽约银从116美元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in gold prices has led to confusion among investors, with some considering stop-loss strategies while others see it as an opportunity to buy on dips [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - On January 30, international gold prices experienced a significant drop, with spot gold falling below $4,700 per ounce, and silver prices also plummeting, marking one of the largest daily fluctuations in history [1][2] - Major banks, including ICBC, CCB, BOC, and ABC, issued risk warnings and adjusted their precious metals business rules in response to the volatility [1][3] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment has become polarized, with some opting to wait and see due to fears of increased volatility, while others view the price drop as a buying opportunity [7] - A notable increase in inquiries for physical gold has been observed, particularly after the price correction, as many investors consider it a "buying window" for long-term holding [5] Group 3: Institutional Responses - Banks have been adjusting their gold accumulation business rules, including raising minimum investment amounts and tightening risk assessment requirements for gold accumulation products [3] - Several banks have reduced interest rates on gold accumulation accounts to near zero, indicating a shift in the attractiveness of account-based gold products [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the gold market may have entered a phase of high volatility, influenced by rapid price increases, high concentration of funds, and uncertainties surrounding U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical factors [7][8] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term fundamentals supporting gold prices, such as central bank purchases and geopolitical risks, remain intact, with expectations that gold prices could reach $6,000 per ounce in the future [8]

行业周报 | 非银金融 券商业绩预告亮眼，保险有望延续估值修复 金融行业周报（2026/02/01） 金融行业周涨跌幅跟踪：1）本周非银金融（申万）指数涨跌幅为+1.04%， 跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.95pct。本周证券Ⅱ（申万）、保险Ⅱ（申万）、多元金 融指数涨跌幅分别为-0.69%、+5.50%、-3.62%。2）本周银行（申万）涨跌 幅为+0.86%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.78pct。其中，国有行、股份行、城商行、 农商行本周涨跌幅分别为+0.35%、-0.26%、+3.11%、+2.06%。 投资观点：1）保险：本周保险Ⅱ(申万)涨跌幅为+5.50%，跑赢沪深 300 指 数 5.42pct。1 月保险股受"开门红"业绩高涨，后因监管降温进入震荡回 调。展望 2 月，保险股有望延续估值修复趋势：负债端，居民挪储趋势持续， 分红险凭借"保底+浮动"的收益优势成为承接居民资产迁徙的核心品种， 叠加 1 月"开门红"高增态势延续，头部险企保费增速有望持续领跑；资产 端，股市慢牛预期升温叠加利率中枢企稳，板块有望逐步从"流动性宽松驱 动"向"宏观政策加码+经济修复预期驱动"切换，投资收益提升路径明确 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in gold prices, highlighting the significant drop in prices and the mixed reactions from investors, with some viewing it as a buying opportunity while others remain cautious [3][12]. Market Reaction - On January 30, international gold prices fell sharply, with spot gold dropping below $4,700 per ounce, and silver prices also experiencing significant declines, marking the largest single-day drop in nearly 40 years for gold and over 25% for silver [5][6]. - Major banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank, issued risk warnings and adjusted their gold business rules in response to the volatility [6][8]. Investor Behavior - Despite the price drop, demand for physical gold remains high, with many investment gold bars sold out at various banks, indicating a strong interest in accumulating gold during the price correction [9][10]. - A notable increase in inquiries about gold bars was reported, with many investors viewing the price drop as a "buying window" for long-term holding [10]. Future Price Outlook - Market sentiment is divided, with some investors choosing to wait and others looking to buy on dips. Analysts suggest that the gold market may have entered a high volatility phase due to rapid price increases and external factors such as U.S. Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical uncertainties [12][13]. - Analysts predict that while short-term fluctuations may occur, the long-term fundamentals supporting gold prices remain intact, with expectations of gold potentially reaching $6,000 per ounce [14]. Investment Strategy - Investment strategies are shifting towards a more cautious approach, with recommendations for investors to reduce short-term trading impulses and consider gold as part of a diversified asset allocation rather than speculative investments [14]. - Physical gold and gold ETFs are suggested for long-term holdings, while account-based gold products are recommended for flexible allocation [14].