Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and services sectors [7]. Core Insights - The central government emphasizes the importance of managing expectations in the real estate market, indicating a proactive approach to stabilize the market [2][3]. - The report highlights that while the traditional real estate development model has reached its limits, the sector remains a crucial foundation for the national economy, with significant demand still to be released [4]. - The report suggests that if policies continue to address expectations effectively, it could accelerate market stabilization [5]. Summary by Sections Investment Opportunities - The report recommends investing in "three good" real estate companies, which are characterized by good credit, good cities, and good products, including companies like China Overseas Development and Longfor Group [5]. - It also highlights companies with strong operational capabilities that can manage cash flow during market adjustments, such as New Town Holdings and Longfor Group [5]. - Companies benefiting from the recovery of the Hong Kong market, like Sun Hung Kai Properties, are also recommended [5]. Policy Management - The report stresses the need for maintaining policy strength, effective supply management, and enhancing information and public opinion guidance to stabilize market expectations [3]. - It notes that policies should align with market expectations and be implemented decisively to avoid a situation where the market and policies are in conflict [3]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the real estate market is still adjusting, with significant declines in sales and prices, and mentions the potential for bankruptcies among some companies [2]. - It emphasizes that the real estate sector is closely linked to financial security and household wealth, underscoring its importance in the broader economic context [2]. Company Performance - The report provides detailed performance forecasts for several key companies, adjusting earnings per share (EPS) estimates for various firms based on market conditions and operational performance [12][13][14]. - For instance, Longfor Group's EPS estimates for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 0.52, 0.68, and 1.04 yuan, reflecting a downward revision due to expected profitability challenges in its development business [12]. - China Overseas Development's EPS estimates have been adjusted to 1.39, 1.48, and 1.60 yuan for the same period, indicating a more optimistic outlook based on its strong market position and project pipeline [12].

2026年翩然而至。回顾2025年，房企销售哪家强？ 岁末年初，中指研究院、克而瑞深度咨询·普睿数智研究中心、亿翰智库三大机构分别发布销售额排行榜榜单， 2025年，保利发展蝉联销冠，与中海地产、华润置地、招商蛇口、绿城中国位居前五位，而万科跌出前五。 虽然2025年房企整体业绩延续筑底态势，但可喜的是，部分企业业绩呈现出回暖。据克而瑞深度咨询·普睿数智研 究中心统计，2025年累计业绩同比增长的房企占比为24%，其中同比增幅大于30%的企业数量占到12家。 保利发展蝉联销冠，金茂晋位、万科跌出前五 根据中指研究院和亿翰智库发布的百强房企销售榜单（全口径销售额）显示，保利发展、绿城中国的销售额为 2530亿元和2519亿元，分别位居冠军和亚军。中海地产销售额为2512亿元，华润置地销售额为2336亿元，分别位 居第三位和第四位，招商蛇口以1960亿元的销售额位居第五名。 | 排名 | ग्रह के बाद में बाद में बाद में बाद में बाद में बाद में बाद में बाद में बाद में बाद में कि में बाद में कि को में ब ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6] Core Views - The real estate market in 2025 is expected to remain sluggish, with new home transactions down by 15.8% year-on-year, while second-hand home transactions show a slight increase of 3.9% [11][22] - The report emphasizes that the policy environment is expected to become more stringent, similar to the conditions seen in 2008 and 2014, indicating that the current policy adjustments are still in progress [4] - The report suggests that the real estate sector serves as an early economic indicator, making it a valuable asset class for investment [4] - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies expected to perform better in land acquisition and sales [4] - The report highlights a focus on first-tier and select second-tier cities for investment, as these areas are likely to see better performance during market rebounds [4] Summary by Sections New Home Transactions - In 2025, the cumulative new home transaction volume in 30 sample cities reached 98.217 million square meters, a decrease of 15.8% year-on-year [11] - First-tier cities accounted for 26.191 million square meters, down 12.0%, while second-tier cities saw a decline of 15.6% to 49.040 million square meters [11] - December 2025 saw a significant drop in new home transactions, with a total of 9.679 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 40.0% [2][11] Second-Hand Home Transactions - The total area of second-hand home transactions in 2025 was 103.989 million square meters, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [22] - First-tier cities recorded a total of 43.287 million square meters in second-hand home transactions, up 4.4% year-on-year [22] Market Performance - The report notes that the real estate index decreased by 0.7% this week, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 0.10 percentage points, ranking 19th among 31 sectors [34] - The report identifies a total of 28 stocks that increased in value this week, while 82 stocks experienced declines [34] Credit Bond Issuance - In the week of December 29 to January 4, only one credit bond was issued by real estate companies, totaling 250 million yuan, a decrease of 44.82 million yuan from the previous week [45]

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report On December 31, affected by the New Year's Day holiday, major repurchase rates generally rose; the bond market showed a weak and volatile trend; the main indices of the convertible bond market showed mixed performance, with most individual convertible bonds rising; yields of U.S. Treasuries across various maturities generally increased, and the yields of 10 - year government bonds of major European economies showed divergent trends. Meanwhile, 12 - month manufacturing PMI rose to the expansion range [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News**: - China will implement more proactive and effective macro - policies in 2026, focus on the real economy, and prioritize the development of new - quality productive forces [3]. - In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, entering the expansion range; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 50.7%, up 1.0 percentage point [4]. - The third - stage fee reform of the public fund industry was implemented, reducing the comprehensive fee level by about 20% and saving about 51 billion yuan in investment costs for investors annually [4][5]. - The CSRC launched a pilot program for commercial real - estate investment trust funds, aiming to expand the market scale and improve the system [5]. - The Beijing Stock Exchange solicited public opinions on the "Listing Rules for Privately Offered Corporate Bonds on the Beijing Stock Exchange" [6]. - In November 2025, the bond market issued 7.01793 trillion yuan of various bonds, and the bond market custody balance reached 196.3 trillion yuan by the end of November [7]. - The National Development and Reform Commission issued an early - batch list of "two major" projects and central budgetary investment of about 295 billion yuan for 2026 [8][9]. - **International News**: - In the week of December 20, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. dropped to 199,000, and the number of continued claims also decreased, indicating the resilience of the labor market [10]. - **Commodities**: - On December 31, international crude oil futures prices continued to fall, with WTI February crude futures down 0.91% and Brent February crude futures down 0.78%. COMEX gold futures fell 1.31%, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 6.71% [11]. 3.2 Fundamentals - **Open - market Operations**: - On December 31, the central bank conducted 528.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 502.8 billion yuan [13]. - **Funding Rates**: - Affected by the New Year's Day holiday, major repurchase rates generally rose. DR001 rose 9.30bp to 1.333%, and DR007 rose 29.47bp to 1.982% [14]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - rate Bonds**: - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: - On December 31, due to better - than - expected PMI data, the bond market was weakly volatile. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016 fell 1.00bp to 1.8500%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250215 fell 0.10bp to 1.9480% [17]. - **Bond Tendering**: - There were no Treasury or CDB bond issuances on that day [19]. - **Credit Bonds**: - **Secondary - market Transaction Abnormalities**: - On December 31, 4 industrial bonds had a transaction price deviation of over 10%. "23 Chanrong 09" fell over 15%, while "22 Vanke 04", "22 Vanke 06", and "22 Vanke 02" rose over 13%, 14%, and 14% respectively [20]. - **Credit - bond Events**: - Vanke will review proposals such as adjusting the repayment arrangement of part of the bond principal and interest and adding a grace period for "21 Vanke 02" [21]. - China Aoyuan's domestic debt restructuring plan is basically completed and is seeking opinions [21]. - Fangyuan Real Estate passed two proposals on adjusting the repayment arrangement for "20 Fangyuan 01" [21]. - China Fortune Land Development completed a trust debt - for - asset transaction of 22.348 billion yuan, and a remaining 1.653 billion yuan transaction is in progress [21]. - Country Garden's overseas debt restructuring took effect on December 30 [21]. - **Convertible Bonds**: - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: - On December 31, the A - share market was volatile and differentiated. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell 0.58% and 1.23% respectively. The turnover was 2.07 trillion yuan [22]. - The main indices of the convertible bond market showed mixed performance. The CSI Convertible Bond Index and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index rose 0.02% and 0.08% respectively, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index fell 0.09%. The turnover was 81.89 billion yuan [22]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: - On January 1, the convertible bond issuances of Shang Sheng Electronics and Ai Wei Electronics were approved by the CSRC. On December 31, Yingte Convertible Bond announced an early redemption, and Huarui, Luwei, and Chaoda Convertible Bonds were about to trigger early - redemption conditions [29]. - **Overseas Bond Markets**: - **U.S. Bond Market**: - On December 31, yields of U.S. Treasuries across various maturities generally increased. The 2 - year yield rose 2bp to 3.47%, and the 10 - year yield rose 4bp to 4.18%. The 2/10 - year yield spread widened 2bp to 71bp, and the 5/30 - year yield spread narrowed 2bp to 111bp. The 10 - year TIPS break - even inflation rate rose 1bp to 2.25% [26][27][28]. - **European Bond Market**: - On December 31, the yields of 10 - year government bonds of major European economies showed divergent trends. Germany's yield rose 1bp to 2.86%, while France and Italy's remained unchanged. Spain and the UK's yields fell 1bp [30]. - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese - funded U.S. Dollar Bonds**: - As of the close on December 31, the prices of Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds showed significant fluctuations. The top - gainers included SMIC with a 16.9% increase, and the top - losers included Pinduoduo with a 3.4% decrease [32].

证券研究报告 | 行业策略报告 2026 年 01 月 04 日 三个市场关注点和一个自然均衡点 ——房地产行业 2026 年度投资策略 周期/房地产 q 投资建议： 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 258 | 5.0 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 2936.6 | 2.7 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 2781.7 | 2.8 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -1.8 14.2 8.6 相对表现 -4.0 -3.4 -9.1 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Jan/25 Apr/25 Aug/25 Dec/25 (%) 房地产 沪深300 相关报告 房地产角度：关注（1）业绩相对稳健且股息率较高的【华润置地】【华润万 象生活】等；（2）经营动量有积极变化的公司，例如 25 年【滨江集团】【中 国金茂】【建发国际集团】【越秀地产】等曾演绎这一逻辑；（3）公开债务 偿付压力下降且估值较低的【金地集团】【龙湖集团】等；（4）业绩增长及 分红稳定的物企【保利物业】【绿城服务】等；（5）存在机会型布 ...

Core Insights - The current market demands a focus on high-end real estate to attract wealthy clients, as traditional project development strategies are becoming less viable [1][2][12] - The shrinking demand for affordable housing has led to a significant challenge in project sales, with many developers facing difficulties in inventory turnover [2][12] - High-end properties are now seen as the only viable option for developers, as they can potentially yield higher profits if executed correctly [3][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The demand for affordable housing has drastically decreased, making it difficult for developers to achieve systematic sales [2] - The improvement segment is currently facing profit challenges due to increased competition and transparent land costs [2][4] - Developers must focus on high-end positioning from the outset to achieve project premium pricing [2][3] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Wealthy buyers are increasingly knowledgeable about products and demand unique, non-standardized offerings [5][7] - The emotional value of purchasing a home has become more significant for affluent clients, who seek distinct properties that reflect their tastes [8] - The market is witnessing a shift where older, established wealth is more discerning and focused on quality of living rather than status [7][8] Group 3: Development Strategies - Developers must move beyond simply enhancing product quality through material upgrades and focus on innovative design and unique concepts [4][10] - Successful high-end projects require collaboration with top-tier designers and a strong narrative around the community's values [10][11] - There is an opportunity for niche developers to thrive by focusing on unique, high-quality projects that meet the specific demands of affluent buyers [9][11]

Core Insights - Despite industry challenges, four real estate companies are expected to exceed 200 billion yuan in sales by 2025, with the top 10 maintaining a threshold of 100 billion yuan [1][2] - The companies achieving over 200 billion yuan in sales include Poly Developments (253 billion yuan), Greentown China (251.9 billion yuan), China Overseas Property (251.2 billion yuan), and China Resources Land (233.6 billion yuan) [1][2] Group 1: Sales Performance - In December 2025, nearly 70% of 105 typical real estate companies reported a month-on-month increase in total sales, with almost 50% experiencing a month-on-month growth rate exceeding 20% [3] - Notable performers include Yuexiu Property, China State Construction, and Renheng Real Estate, with some companies achieving month-on-month sales growth exceeding 100% [3] - China Resources Land and China State Construction reported year-on-year sales growth rates exceeding 15% [3] Group 2: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The real estate sector is expected to continue its adjustment phase in 2026, with debt restructuring accelerating and the completion of housing delivery tasks [1][9] - The market is anticipated to seek a new supply-demand balance, with structural recovery possible while overall prices are expected to remain stable [9] - The importance of community amenities and services is expected to increase, with a focus on green, smart, healthy, and safe products gaining premium pricing [9] Group 3: Company Resilience and Strategy - 53 companies have maintained their position in the top 100 for five consecutive years, with firms like Binjiang Group and Longfor Group demonstrating stable operations while maintaining investment levels [8] - Some struggling private companies, such as Country Garden and Sunac, remain in the top rankings due to prior land reserves that support sales and debt restructuring efforts [8] - Regional private companies are focusing on local high-capacity cities through precise strategies and partnerships to mitigate financial pressures [8]

Core Insights - The performance of major real estate companies in Xi'an for 2025 shows a decline in sales compared to previous years, with only four companies exceeding sales of 10 billion yuan [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - Poly Development, China Railway Construction, and Greentown China topped the sales rankings in Xi'an with sales of 134.8 billion yuan, 131.2 billion yuan, and 129.5 billion yuan respectively [1]. - China Jinmao achieved its first 10 billion yuan sales milestone in Xi'an, ranking fourth with 110.3 billion yuan [4]. - The total sales of the top 10 real estate companies in Xi'an for 2025 amounted to 818.3 billion yuan, a 30.07% decrease from 1,170.3 billion yuan in 2024 [3]. Group 2: Market Trends - The number of companies achieving over 10 billion yuan in sales decreased compared to 2023 and 2024, indicating a challenging market environment [1][2]. - The threshold for entering the top 10 sales rankings dropped from 45.1 billion yuan in 2024 to 39.3 billion yuan in 2025 [3]. - The dominance of state-owned enterprises in the top 10 is notable, with eight out of ten companies being state-owned or having state-owned enterprises as their largest shareholders [5]. Group 3: Local Company Dynamics - Local companies in Xi'an were absent from the top 10 rankings in 2025, with Tiandi Source being the highest-performing local company at 30.6 billion yuan, ranking 13th [7][8]. - The entry of new players like Bangtai, which achieved 22.3 billion yuan in its first year in Xi'an, indicates a shift in the competitive landscape [8]. Group 4: Single Project Sales - The era of high-tech and port areas dominating single project sales in Xi'an has ended, with a more even distribution of successful projects across different regions [12][14]. - The top three single project sales in 2025 were Jinmao Puyi Dongfang, Poly Tianjun, and Qujiang Jinmao Fu, with sales of 35.5 billion yuan, 31.4 billion yuan, and 30.6 billion yuan respectively [15]. - There were no projects exceeding 4 billion yuan in sales in 2025, a significant drop from four such projects in 2024 [17].

Core Insights - The luxury real estate market in cities like Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou has seen a significant surge in 2025, despite a general downturn in the housing market [1] - Notable sales figures include Shanghai's Yihao Courtyard achieving sales of 22.191 billion yuan and Shenzhen's CITIC City Sales exceeding 10 billion yuan in just two hours [1] - Xi'an's luxury market is also thriving, with multiple high-end projects being launched, indicating a strong demand from affluent buyers [1][27] Group 1: Market Performance - In the first 11 months of this year, Xi'an's luxury market is estimated to have sales between 8 billion to 10 billion yuan, with several projects like Jinmao Puyi Dongfang and Qujiang Jinmao Mansion contributing significantly [25][26] - Jinmao Puyi Dongfang alone achieved sales of 2.909 billion yuan, making it one of the top-selling projects in Xi'an [25] - The luxury market's performance is supported by a growing number of high-net-worth families in the region, with 20,200 households having investable assets of over 6 million yuan [33] Group 2: Project Highlights - Jinmao Puyi Gaoxin, a new luxury project in Xi'an, features high starting unit sizes of approximately 212 square meters, with the largest units reaching 340 square meters [4] - The project incorporates unique design elements such as sunken courtyards and high-quality materials, enhancing its appeal to affluent buyers [6][19] - Green City’s Guichuan Dongfang, located in the core area of Xi'an's Olympic Sports District, is positioned as a premium offering with starting unit sizes of 180 square meters and a focus on unique urban resources [12][14] Group 3: Buyer Demographics - The luxury real estate market is not limited to local buyers; it attracts affluent clients from outside Xi'an, reflecting a broader trend seen in major cities [27][30] - High-net-worth families view purchasing luxury properties in core urban areas as a strategic asset allocation, combining lifestyle improvement with value retention [33] - The presence of significant economic resources and urban development in Xi'an enhances the attractiveness of its luxury real estate offerings [30]

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of real estate companies in 2025 continues to show a bottoming trend, with some companies experiencing significant recovery in their performance. The proportion of companies with year-on-year performance growth is 24%, with 12 companies achieving growth rates exceeding 30% [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The real estate market in 2025 maintains a bottoming trend, with overall sales remaining at low levels. There are 10 companies with sales exceeding 100 billion yuan, 13 companies with sales between 30-100 billion yuan, 42 companies with sales between 10-30 billion yuan, and 35 companies with sales below 10 billion yuan [2]. - Among the 10 companies with sales over 100 billion yuan, only one company, China Jinmao, reported performance growth. In the 13 companies with sales between 30-100 billion yuan, three companies reported growth: Greenland Holdings, China State Construction East, and Bangtai Group [8]. Group 2: Company Performance - A total of 224 companies reported year-on-year performance growth, with 24 companies showing growth. Notably, Bangtai Group's performance surpassed 30 billion yuan for the first time, with a significant year-on-year increase of 79.7% [4][5]. - The companies with the highest sales and their respective year-on-year growth rates include: - Kerry Properties: 227.87 billion yuan, 1646.5% - Jiangshan Wanli Real Estate: 174.50 billion yuan, 731.3% - Fuzhou Jianfa: 88.90 billion yuan, 92.9% - Shanghai Construction: 92.75 billion yuan, 80.6% - Bangtai Group: 303.54 billion yuan, 79.7% [5]. Group 3: State-Owned vs. Private Enterprises - Central state-owned enterprises performed relatively well, with 42.9% of them reporting performance growth. In contrast, only 15.2% of private enterprises and 12.5% of mixed-ownership enterprises reported growth [9][13]. - The proportion of performance growth among various types of real estate companies shows a clear differentiation, with state-owned enterprises leading in growth rates compared to private and mixed-ownership enterprises [13].