原油年报 2025 年 12 月 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】 1448 号 研究员： 研究员：黄思源 从业资格证：F03124114 投资分析证：Z0023501 原油年报 2025-12 回顾 2025 年，年初，在关税政策和 OPEC+增产计划的共同作用下，油价走 出一个流畅的下行趋势，年中受到中东局势升级带来的地缘风险，油价出现了 一波急涨，但这场由风险溢价驱动的上涨缺乏基本面支撑。随着局势迅速缓和、 停火协议生效，风险溢价被快速挤出，油价随之大幅回落。进入第三季度，受 到需求旺季的托底，油价并未继续深跌，而是进入横盘整理阶段，然而随着旺 季的结束，市场供应压力持续显现，使得油价中枢持续下行。 展望后市，供需方面，2026 年全球石油供给将维持增长，但增幅或低于 2025 年。虽然 OPEC+在一季度暂停增产，但后续仍有望继续释放产能，巴西、 加拿大等非减产联盟国家产量预计进一步提升，而美国页岩油受投资不足和油 价低迷制约，难有明显增量，此外，地缘局势演变，尤其是俄乌冲突与伊核问 题的走向，将继续扰动原油供给侧。而需求侧受经济增长乏力制约，整体前景 难言乐观，预计 2026 年全球石油需求 ...

欧洲议会这波操作直接炸翻全球能源圈。 500票赞成、120票反对，压倒性投票结果一出炉，就给全球能源市场扔下了颗重磅炸弹。 真正的终局在2026年底俄LNG长期合同全面终止，9月30日管道气彻底停供，最迟不能晚于11月1日。 但有个前提成员国的天然气库存得充足，为了防漏洞欧盟还要求能源商必须提交产地溯源证明，敢偷偷 买的等着成员国的统一处罚。 更狠的是，天然气还没断石油禁令已在路上，欧洲议会正逼着欧盟委员会，2026年初必须拿出全面禁止 进口俄罗斯石油的提案，目标和天然气同步清零。 欧洲议会正式拍板这个决定，2027年底前欧盟要彻底停止进口俄罗斯天然气，从曾经45%的供应依赖到 如今铁腕断供，欧洲人真的不怕冬天挨冻吗。 那么，这场博弈背后藏着什么不知道的门道？ "禁令不是一刀切" 12月17日欧洲议会以绝对优势通过法案，给俄罗斯天然气画了道死亡线，但这可不是明天就断气，欧盟 玩的是精准切割，时间线卡得明明白白。 2026年就是破冰期，俄罗斯液化天然气的短期合同先失效，到6月17日管道天然气的短期供应也得停， 连现货市场的俄气都别想进欧盟大门。 各国也得交自救计划，法国要把核电占比扩到50%，西班牙盯着北非的管 ...

Core Viewpoint - The long-standing and solid foundation of China-Russia energy cooperation serves as a cornerstone for bilateral economic collaboration and exemplifies mutual benefit, with significant potential for further development in energy partnerships [1] Group 1: Energy Cooperation Developments - The 7th China-Russia Energy Business Forum emphasized the importance of energy as a key area for practical cooperation, with both countries advancing large-scale joint projects in the fuel energy sector [1] - The "Power of Siberia 1" gas pipeline has delivered over 78 billion cubic meters of gas since its commissioning in 2019, with an expected annual capacity of 38 billion cubic meters by 2025, sufficient to meet the needs of approximately 130 million households [1] - In April, a roadmap was signed to increase oil trade between China and Russia to 30 million tons by 2025, reinforcing China's position as Russia's largest crude oil export market [2] Group 2: Expansion of Cooperation Areas - Both countries plan to deepen cooperation in oil, natural gas, coal, and electricity, while ensuring the safe and stable operation of cross-border energy channels [2] - Recent agreements in September included a strategic cooperation agreement to increase the annual gas supply from the "Power of Siberia" pipeline from 38 billion cubic meters to 44 billion cubic meters [2] - Russia is also increasing coal supply to China and collaborating on nuclear power plant construction and clean energy development [3] Group 3: Global Energy Security and Governance - China-Russia energy cooperation contributes to global energy security and stability, maintaining the smooth operation of the global energy supply chain [3] - The partnership is seen as a model for transforming the global energy governance system, emphasizing mutual benefit and sustainable development [4] - Both countries oppose the politicization of international energy trade, with Russia appreciating China's constructive stance on maintaining stable energy cooperation [3]

哈喽，大家好，今天小睿这篇评论，主要来分析俄罗斯2300 吨黄金对内抛售，是筑金融堡垒还是耗老 本？ 手握超过 2300 吨黄金储备，俄罗斯却选择了一条特殊的路：把国库存金卖给自己人，构建不依赖西方 的金融闭环。 12 月 8 日，俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克宣布计划限制金条出口，个人出境携带黄金不得超过 100 克。这一政 策背后，是俄罗斯央行已启动的黄金内循环战略，用出售储备黄金的方式填补财政缺口，而这场 "内部 交易"，正引发全球对其经济走向的热议。 内循环核心 俄罗斯的黄金内循环，核心是让黄金在国内体系内流动，不流出境外。俄罗斯央行出售的实物黄金，主 要买家是国内商业银行、国企和投资机构，交易完全在境内完成。 2025 年 10 月，圣彼得堡交易所正式启动实物黄金交易，尽管初期成交量不大，但已成为内循环的重要 交易平台。12 月初，俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司通过该交易所，购入了 3 吨央行抛售的黄金，用于补 充企业资产储备。 民间狂热 这种交易模式不会影响国际黄金市场，却能让政府快速回笼卢布资金。俄罗斯财政部数据显示，2025 年 8 月国内金融机构持有的黄金规模已达 57.6 吨，成为承接官方黄金出售的核心力量 ...

Group 1 - The Turkish Stream gas pipeline operating company will relocate from the Netherlands to Hungary under a U.S. exemption policy for Hungary [3] - The company is a subsidiary of Gazprom and is facing legal challenges in the Netherlands due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [3] - The Turkish Stream pipeline consists of two lines, one supplying gas to Turkey and the other transporting gas to Southern and Southeastern Europe [3] Group 2 - Hungarian Prime Minister Orban met with U.S. President Trump on September 7, where they reached an agreement allowing Hungary to continue receiving Russian energy through the Turkish Stream and the Druzhba oil pipeline [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Hungarian Foreign Minister announced that the operator of the "Turkish Stream" gas pipeline will relocate from the Netherlands to Hungary under a U.S. exemption policy, allowing the pipeline to continue operations [1] Group 1: Company Operations - The operator of the "Turkish Stream" gas pipeline is a subsidiary of Gazprom and is facing legal challenges in the Netherlands due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] - The "Turkish Stream" pipeline consists of two lines, one supplying gas to Turkey and the other transporting gas to Southern and Southeastern Europe [1] Group 2: International Agreements - Hungarian Prime Minister Orban met with U.S. President Trump on September 7, where they reached an agreement allowing Hungary to continue receiving Russian energy through the "Turkish Stream" pipeline and the "Friendship" oil pipeline [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights Hungary's strategic decision to secure natural gas supplies from Russia, contrasting with the EU's collective move to reduce reliance on Russian energy [1][4]. - Hungary's agreement with Turkey for gas transit represents a significant deviation from EU energy policies, showcasing a pragmatic approach to energy security [3][4]. - The article emphasizes that Hungary's actions reflect a broader trend of countries seeking autonomy from EU directives, indicating a potential shift in the European energy landscape towards fragmentation [7]. Group 2 - The article discusses the failure of many EU countries to find reliable alternatives to Russian energy, leading to chaos in the European energy market [2]. - Hungary's proactive measures, including securing gas supply agreements with Russia and obtaining a waiver from the U.S. regarding sanctions, position it uniquely within the EU [3][4]. - The cooperation between Hungary and Turkey is framed as a response to the EU's rigid energy policies, highlighting the tension between political correctness and economic realities [5][7].

Core Viewpoint - The Serbian government announced the suspension of operations at a key refinery owned by the Serbian Oil Company, which is controlled by Russian enterprises, due to the lack of a waiver from the U.S. This situation is expected to have a significant impact on the Serbian economy [1] Group 1: Company Impact - The Serbian Oil Company is significantly affected by U.S. sanctions, which were imposed on the Russian oil industry and took effect on October 9 [1] - The company is crucial to the local oil market, accounting for approximately 80% of domestic supply and contributing nearly 7% to the national GDP [9] - The Pančevo refinery is the only active refining facility in Serbia, and its shutdown could lead to a chain reaction affecting various sectors, including oil derivatives, transportation and logistics, agriculture, and retail [9] Group 2: Economic and Public Sentiment - Local residents express dissatisfaction with U.S. actions, viewing them as politically motivated and an attempt to force the Serbian government to impose sanctions on Russia [5][7] - Despite the ongoing situation, gas stations operated by the Serbian Oil Company remain functional, and there is no immediate panic among the local population [3] - Economic experts highlight that Serbia is bearing the consequences of a crisis not of its own making, emphasizing that the situation is beyond local control [7]

塞尔维亚NIS炼厂因制裁关停 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所2026年1月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌68美分，收于每桶58.64美元，跌幅为1.15%；2月交货 的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌72美分，收于每桶62.45美元，跌幅为1.14%。SC原油主力合约收跌0.75%，报450 元/桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 2、 针对美国总统特朗普当地时间12月2日声称哥伦比亚可能因毒品问题而"遭受攻击"的言论，哥伦比亚总统佩特 罗当天通过社交媒体警告说，切勿威胁哥方主权，"侵犯我们的主权即宣战"。当天早些时候，特朗普在白宫的内 阁会议上对媒体称，哥伦比亚境内的制毒窝点制造可卡因并销往美国，任何向美国"贩毒"的国家都将"遭受攻击"。 （来源：Bloomberg） 3、 塞尔维亚总统武契奇表示，已达成协议，将在本周末前确保俄罗斯持股的塞尔维亚石油公司（NIS）的支付交 易安全，美国并未暂停对NIS炼油厂的制裁，同时，俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司在塞尔维亚的炼油厂将在数日内关 闭。（来源：Bloomberg） 原油日报 | 2025-12-03 4、 克里姆林宫发言人佩斯科夫表示，俄罗斯将继续以具有竞争力的价格 ...

Core Points - Serbian President Vucic stated that the NIS refinery, controlled by Russian enterprises, will cease operations within four days if the U.S. does not lift sanctions, which could lead to significant economic troubles for Serbia [1] - NIS currently faces difficulties due to a lack of crude oil supply, and while Serbia has sufficient fuel reserves for short-term needs, the shutdown of NIS would disrupt the production of gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel, posing risks to national security [1] - NIS produces approximately 80% of Serbia's fuel market, making it critical for the country's energy supply [1][2] Company Overview - NIS is partially owned by Russian companies, with 44.9% and 11.3% of shares held by Russian oil and gas firms, while the Serbian government holds 29.9% [2] - The U.S. Treasury imposed sanctions on the Russian oil industry affecting NIS, with measures taking effect on October 9 [2] - NIS has requested temporary relief from sanctions during negotiations for the sale of Russian-held shares, but has not received a response from the U.S. [2] Government Response - The Serbian government has approved the import of 38,000 tons of gasoline and 66,000 tons of diesel as a national reserve [1] - Vucic proposed that the U.S. grant NIS a 50-day period to sell Russian shares, with the possibility of the Serbian government taking over NIS if the sale is not completed [2]