Group 1 - UBS has slightly reduced the target price for Budweiser APAC (01876) from HKD 8.75 to HKD 8.6 while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - Budweiser APAC's revenue and normalized EBITDA for 2025 are expected to decline by 6.1% and 9.8% year-on-year, reaching USD 5.764 billion and USD 1.588 billion, respectively, which is below market expectations [1] - For Q4 2025, revenue and normalized EBITDA are projected to decrease by 4.2% and 24.7% year-on-year, amounting to USD 1.073 billion and USD 0.167 billion [1] Group 2 - The company's normalized EBITDA margin is expected to contract by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in gross margin and an increase in the ratio of selling, general, and administrative expenses (SG&A) [1] - The net profit for the period is reported at USD 489 million, influenced by a one-time item related to a customs audit claim and tax issues in South Korea [1] - UBS has raised its revenue forecasts for Budweiser from 2026 to 2028 by 2% to 3%, mainly reflecting expectations of RMB appreciation, although a recovery in the Chinese market is anticipated to slow down and may be delayed until the second half of 2026 [1] Group 3 - EBITDA forecasts for 2026 to 2028 have been lowered by 6% to 7% to account for operational deleveraging and increased business investments, resulting in a reduction of EBITDA margin by 2.5 to 2.8 percentage points [1]

Core Insights - Budweiser APAC achieved a total revenue of $5.764 billion in 2025, with an organic year-on-year decline of 6.1% [1] - The normalized EBITDA for 2025 was $1.588 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 9.8% [1] - In Q4 2025, revenue reached $1.073 billion, with an organic year-on-year decline of 4.2% [1] Revenue and EBITDA Analysis - For the full year 2025, the company reported a sales volume of 7.9658 million kiloliters, down 6.0% year-on-year, while Q4 sales volume was 1.3518 million kiloliters, down 0.7% [1] - The revenue per hectoliter for the full year 2025 decreased by 0.2%, and for Q4, it decreased by 3.5% [1] - The gross margin for 2025 was 50.1%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points year-on-year, while the normalized EBITDA margin was 27.6%, a decrease of 1.13 percentage points year-on-year [1] Regional Performance - In the Western Asia-Pacific region, Q4 2025 sales volume showed a slight organic growth of 0.1%, but revenue and revenue per hectoliter declined by 5.6% and 5.7% respectively, with normalized EBITDA down 40.0% [2] - India emerged as a growth highlight, with high-end and super high-end products accounting for over two-thirds of total revenue and contributing over 20% to revenue growth [2] - In the Eastern Asia-Pacific region, Q4 2025 revenue showed a slight organic decline of 0.6%, with sales volume down 3.7% but revenue per hectoliter up 3.2% [2] China Market Focus - The Chinese market faced continued pressure, with Q4 2025 sales volume down 3.9% due to weak on-premise channels and delayed Lunar New Year shipments [3] - The company plans to increase investment in channel and product mix expansion, with Q4 2025 revenue down 11.4% year-on-year [3] - The company aims to revitalize its market share in China as a core focus for 2026, with strategies including enhancing high-end and digital channel penetration [4] Future Strategies and Forecasts - For 2026, the company will increase commercial investment as a percentage of net revenue, focusing on core and emerging channels [4] - The profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been revised down to $621 million and $680 million respectively, reflecting a decrease of 9% and 7% [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 21x for 2026, 20x for 2027, and 18x for 2028, with a maintained "buy" rating based on competitive advantages in high-end and super high-end segments [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company faces pressure in Q4 2025 with a 4.2% year-on-year decline in revenue, primarily due to a downturn in the Chinese market, despite strong double-digit growth in India [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA decreased by 24.7%, with a net loss of approximately $12 million, slightly better than expectations [1] - For the full year, revenue and adjusted EBITDA fell by 6.1% and 9.8% respectively, reaching $5.76 billion and $1.59 billion, with the adjusted EBITDA margin declining by 1.1 percentage points to 27.6% [1] - In the Asia-Pacific West region, revenue declined by 5.6% in Q4, with price pressure (down 5.7% year-on-year) exceeding volume growth (up 0.1%) [2] Group 2: Market Analysis - The Chinese market saw a significant revenue decline of 11.4% in Q4, with volume and price down by 3.9% and 7.7% respectively, largely due to increased support for distributors and brand activation investments [2] - The Indian market continued to gain market share, achieving strong double-digit revenue growth in Q4, driven by high-end and super high-end product combinations [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Management aims to reignite growth in the Chinese market by focusing on expanding non-ready-to-drink channels, optimizing the product mix, and increasing digital investments [1] - Despite a slow recovery in the Chinese market, there is potential for marginal improvement in 2026 due to a low base effect [3] - The company has slightly lowered its revenue forecasts for 2026-2027 by 2% and adjusted EBITDA/net profit forecasts by 1% and 4-5% respectively, while maintaining a target price of HKD 8.90 based on a 20x target P/E ratio for 2026 [3]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Nasdaq dropping by 2.0%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones fell by over 1% each, driven by concerns over AI's disruptive impact on traditional business models[9][10]. - The Hang Seng Index closed at 27,033, down 0.86% for the day, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.65%[3]. Sector Performance - Major technology stocks in Hong Kong faced pressure, with Meituan and NetEase both declining over 4%, and Tencent and Baidu dropping more than 2%[9]. - The electric equipment sector showed strong performance, with Harbin Electric rising by 13.73% after forecasting a 57.2% increase in net profit for 2025[9]. - AI application stocks surged, with Zhizhu rising by 28.68% due to strong market demand and a price adjustment announcement[9]. Economic Indicators - The heavy machinery sector continued its upward trend, with sales of excavators in January 2026 increasing by 49.5% year-on-year, driven by both domestic and export demand[9]. - Consumer stocks showed weakness, with notable declines in companies like Jiumaojiu and Budweiser Asia, which reported a 6.0% drop in total sales for the fiscal year 2025[9]. Global Market Trends - Concerns about AI's impact on the labor market have affected real estate demand, leading to declines in commercial real estate stocks like CBRE and SL Green Realty[10]. - Defensive stocks such as Walmart and Coca-Cola recorded positive returns, indicating a shift towards safer investments amid rising market volatility[13].

Core Insights - The Chinese alcoholic beverage market is projected to reach USD 254.1 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 6.63% during the forecast period [2] - The market is highly concentrated, with baijiu (Chinese liquor) expected to account for 78.57% of revenue by 2025, significantly higher than beer (11.22%) and other categories [2] Market Structure - Baijiu dominates the market, while beer is experiencing a shift towards premiumization and craft options, and low-alcohol/no-alcohol products are gaining traction among new consumer demographics [2] - The structure indicates that the base of the market is determined by baijiu, but growth and structural changes are driven by the premiumization of beer and the penetration of low-alcohol products [2] Technical Features and Product Classification - The alcoholic beverage industry is characterized by a combination of raw material systems, fermentation/distillation processes, aging systems, blending capabilities, and packaging/channel adaptation, which ultimately contribute to brand premium and price segmentation [5] - Baijiu is defined by solid-state fermentation and aging techniques, leading to high margins and strong brand characteristics, but also slower capacity ramp-up and sensitivity to inventory and pricing [5] - Beer is the most industrialized, focusing on scale and channel efficiency, with recent competition shifting towards high-end and craft products [5] Competitive Landscape - The Chinese market shows a concentration in baijiu, with leading companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye dominating the high-end segment, while regional players seek growth through local market penetration [7] - The beer market is characterized by competition among major players like Tsingtao Brewery and China Resources Snow Breweries, focusing on product upgrades and channel penetration [8] - The wine and yellow wine markets are smaller, where brand and channel efficiency are more critical than scale [9] Future Trends and Challenges - Over the next 3-5 years, the market is expected to stabilize with baijiu, while beer will focus on premiumization and low-alcohol/no-alcohol products will drive growth [17] - Challenges include consumer segmentation, price pressure, raw material cost fluctuations, and stricter regulatory requirements [20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (01876.HK) with a target price of HKD 10 [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of USD 5.76 billion and normalized EBITDA of USD 1.59 billion for the year 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.1% and 9.8% respectively. The normalized net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 670 million, down 14.4% year-on-year. For Q4 alone, revenue and normalized EBITDA were USD 1.07 billion and USD 170 million, with a year-on-year decline of 4.2% and 24.7% respectively [1][5]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of USD 750 million, maintaining the same level as the previous year, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 153.4% [1][5]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Growth Rates**: - Total revenue for 2025 was USD 5,764 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of -7.7%. Projections for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are USD 5,921 million, USD 6,033 million, and USD 6,150 million respectively, with expected growth rates of 2.7%, 1.9%, and 1.9% [1][10]. - **Net Profit and Growth Rates**: - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 was USD 489 million, down 32.6% year-on-year. Projections for the following years are USD 533 million, USD 563 million, and USD 580 million, with growth rates of 9.0%, 5.7%, and 3.0% respectively [1][10]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - The EPS for 2025 is projected to be USD 0.04 for the years 2026 to 2028, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 27 in 2025 to 23 in 2028 [1][10]. - **Dividend and Yield**: - The company maintains a high dividend strategy with a dividend yield of approximately 5.7% based on the current dividend payout [1][5]. Market Performance - The report highlights that the company faced challenges in the Chinese market, with a year-on-year revenue decline of 11.4% in Q4 due to weak demand in core on-premise channels. However, the Indian market showed strong growth, contributing significantly to overall revenue [5][6].

Group 1: Financial Data and Trends - As of the end of January 2026, the total social financing scale was 449.11 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2% [1] - The broad money supply (M2) increased by 9.0% year-on-year, significantly outpacing the nominal GDP growth, supporting stable growth in the real economy [1] - In January, resident deposits decreased by 3.39 trillion yuan year-on-year, while non-bank financial institutions saw an increase of 2.56 trillion yuan in deposits [1] Group 2: Robotics Rental Industry - The Chinese robot rental platform, Qingtian Rental, reported over 1,000 orders received for the Spring Festival period, with total orders expected to exceed 5,000, representing an 80% increase in overall GMV [2] - Qingtian Rental is implementing a "City Partner Strategy" to address delivery challenges due to explosive growth and is maintaining a monthly financing rhythm to adapt to market changes [2] Group 3: Beer Industry Performance - Anheuser-Busch InBev's Budweiser Asia and Heineken both reported declines in sales revenue, net profit, and volume for 2025, indicating a common trend of underperformance [3][4] - Heineken's 2025 net revenue was 28.75 billion euros (approximately 235.53 billion yuan), with a net profit of 1.88 billion euros (approximately 15.44 billion yuan), both showing consecutive declines [3] - Budweiser Asia's revenue for 2025 was 5.764 billion USD (approximately 40.31 billion yuan), down about 11.59% year-on-year, with a net profit of approximately 489 million USD (about 3.42 billion yuan), marking a 35.47% decline [3] Group 4: Real Estate Market - In January, the second-hand residential sales prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.5% month-on-month, with specific declines in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [9] - The price adjustments in the second-hand housing market have been ongoing for over four years, with recent data indicating a narrowing of the decline, suggesting improved price-performance ratios for buyers [9] - Notably, cities like Yangzhou and Zhanjiang experienced a month-on-month increase in second-hand residential prices in January [9] Group 5: Gold Market Regulation - Shenzhen's financial management authorities issued a set of ten prohibitive measures to regulate gold market activities, following previous incidents and market volatility [11] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange also announced adjustments to margin requirements and trading limits for gold and silver contracts to manage risks during the Spring Festival [11] - As of February 13, the spot gold price fluctuated between 4,900 and 5,000 USD per ounce, down approximately 10% from a previous high of 5,595 USD [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (01876.HK) with a target price of HKD 10 [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of USD 5.76 billion and normalized EBITDA of USD 1.59 billion for the year 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.1% and 9.8% respectively. The normalized net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 670 million, down 14.4% year-on-year [1]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of USD 750 million, maintaining a high payout ratio of 153.4% [1]. - The report highlights that the company is undergoing operational adjustments while maintaining a strong dividend policy, which is expected to attract investors [1]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: - Total revenue for 2025 was USD 5,764 million, with a projected growth of 2.7% in 2026 and 1.9% in both 2027 and 2028 [1]. - Normalized net profit is expected to recover to USD 533 million in 2026, with further growth to USD 563 million in 2027 and USD 580 million in 2028, after a decline of 32.6% in 2025 [1]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is projected to remain stable at USD 0.04 from 2025 to 2028 [1]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 27 in 2025 to 23 by 2028, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to decline from 1.3 to 1.1 over the same period [1]. Market Performance - The report notes that the company faced challenges in the Chinese market, with a year-on-year revenue decline of 11.4% in Q4 2025, primarily due to weak demand in core on-premise channels [5]. - In contrast, the Indian market showed strong growth, contributing over two-thirds of the revenue with a year-on-year growth of over 20% in the P&SP product segment [5]. - The report anticipates a recovery in the Chinese market in 2026, with ongoing efforts to enhance distribution channels and focus on premium products [5].

Core Viewpoint - Budweiser is facing unprecedented growth pressure in the Chinese market, with declining sales and profits reported in its latest earnings report [1][2]. Financial Performance - Budweiser APAC reported a revenue of $5.764 billion (approximately 39.787 billion RMB) for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.1% [1]. - Beer sales reached 7.966 billion liters, down 6.0% year-on-year [1]. - The profit attributable to equity holders was $489 million (approximately 3.375 billion RMB), a significant decline of 32.6%, marking a low point in net profit over recent years [1]. Market Challenges - The company has experienced a continuous decline in key metrics, with beer sales and revenue in China dropping by 8.6% and 11.3% respectively in 2025 [2]. - The decline is attributed to a slowdown in high-end dining and entertainment channels, which have traditionally been strong for Budweiser [2]. - The company has been slow to adapt to new retail and e-commerce channels, with a lower proportion of non-on-premise sales compared to competitors [2]. Strategic Initiatives - Budweiser is increasing investments in non-on-premise channels and enhancing its sales team capabilities, particularly in Guangdong [2]. - The company is also focusing on marketing its core sub-brands, including new endorsements for Harbin Beer to strengthen connections with younger consumers [2]. Cost Pressures - Increased investments to support distributors and brand promotion in emerging channels have created additional profit pressures for Budweiser [3]. - The company plans to maintain high-intensity marketing and channel investments in 2026, coinciding with the World Cup events [3]. Industry Context - The domestic beer industry is entering a contraction phase, with local brands accelerating their premiumization and channel transformation, increasing pressure on international giants like Budweiser [3][4]. - Competitors such as Yanjing Beer and Chongqing Beer are forecasting significant profit growth, with Yanjing expected to achieve a net profit of 1.584 billion to 1.742 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 50%-65% [3][4]. Leadership Focus - CEO Cheng Yanjun has emphasized the need to reignite growth and rebuild market share in China as a primary task [4].

Core Viewpoint - Budweiser APAC (01876) reported a revenue of $1.073 billion for Q4 2025, representing a 4% year-on-year decline, primarily due to a 0.7% drop in sales volume and a 4% decrease in average selling price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Normalized EBITDA for Q4 2025 was $167 million, down 25% year-on-year, with a corresponding profit margin of 15.6%, which contracted by 425 basis points [1] - The company aims to restore growth momentum in 2026, with an upward potential for the proportion of commercial investment relative to net income, while profit margin improvement is expected to be a long-term goal [1] Group 2: Market Insights - In the Chinese market, there are signs of improvement in Q4 2025, with sales volume and market share stabilizing [1] Group 3: Analyst Rating - The firm maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 9.9 [1]