证券研究报告 | 2026年02月04日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2026-02-03 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 4067.73 | 14127.10 | 4660.10 | 15290.00 | 4148.91 | 1471.06 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 1.29 | 2.19 | 1.17 | 2.30 | 2.66 | 1.39 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 11107.20 | 14335.11 | 6666.26 | 4888.38 | 6773.19 | 988.26 | $$\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}\cong\pm\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}$$ (4) [ (4) 36 $\mu$H$\mu$H$\mu$H$\mu$] 宏观与策略 宏观深度:宏观经济深度报告-有形之手（1）：财政 ABC 之"四本账" 固定收益深度:固收+系列报告之十 ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 二、申请解除股份限售股东履行承诺情况 1.本次申请解除股份限售的股东重庆百货在《首次公开发行股票上市公告书》（以下简称"《上市公告 书》"）中作出的承诺情况如下： 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗 漏。 特别提示： （一）本次解除限售的股份为重庆登康口腔护理用品股份有限公司（以下简称"登康口腔"或"公 司"或"发行人"）首次公开发行前限售股； （二）本次解除股份限售的股东户数为1名，即：重庆百货大楼股份有限公司（以下简称"重庆百 货"），解除限售股份数量为2,987,700股，占公司总股本的1.74%； （三）本次解除限售股份上市流通日期为2026年2月6日（星期五）。 一、首次公开发行前已发行股份概况 经中国证券监督管理委员会《关于同意重庆登康口腔护理用品股份有限公司首次公开发行股票注册的批 复》（证监许可〔2023〕585号）核准，并经深圳证券交易所《关于重庆登康口腔护理用品股份有限公 司人民币普通股股票上市的通知》（深证上〔2023〕278号）同意，公司首次公开发行人民币普通股股 票（A股）43, ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码：001328 证券简称：登康口腔 公告编号：2026-006 重庆登康口腔护理用品股份有限公司 关于部分首次公开发行前限售股份上市流通的提示性公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗 漏。 特别提示： （一）本次解除限售的股份为重庆登康口腔护理用品股份有限公司（以下简称"登康口腔"或"公 司"或"发行人"）首次公开发行前限售股； （二）本次解除股份限售的股东户数为1名，即：重庆百货大楼股份有限公司（以下简称"重庆百 货"），解除限售股份数量为2,987,700股，占公司总股本的1.74%； （三）本次解除限售股份上市流通日期为2026年2月6日（星期五）。 一、首次公开发行前已发行股份概况 二、申请解除股份限售股东履行承诺情况 1.本次申请解除股份限售的股东重庆百货在《首次公开发行股票上市公告书》（以下简称"《上市公告 书》"）中作出的承诺情况如下： ■ 经中国证券监督管理委员会《关于同意重庆登康口腔护理用品股份有限公司首次公开发行股票注册的批 复》（证监许可〔2023〕585号）核准，并经深圳 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，维持商贸零售板块"优于大市"评级。当前金价波动对板块虽 有短期情绪影响，但在当前行业增长逻辑转向依赖品牌建设、工艺创新和文化叙事能力带来的"α收 益"下，预计实际基本面影响相对平稳。AI未来有望在持续赋能品牌业务发展的过程中，实现业务增长 新曲线的开拓。 2025年底海内外市场经过一定涨幅之后市场震荡有所加大，从牛市轮动角度，新的一年消费板块不排除 在政策边际加码情况下来迎来一定弹性。 国信证券主要观点如下： 黄金珠宝金价波动不改龙头长期成长 今年以来，金价出现较大幅度波动，COMEX黄金开年至1月29日涨幅为12.28%，但1月30日单日取得跌 幅8.35%。当前金价波动对板块虽有短期情绪影响，但在当前行业增长逻辑转向依赖品牌建设、工艺创 新和文化叙事能力带来的"α收益"下，预计实际基本面影响相对平稳。一方面，参考2013年金价回调后 带来抢购潮并延续数月的投资购买热情，投资金业务为主的企业短期业绩仍有进一步增长支撑;另一方 面，具备价差优势并且港澳经营能力突出的港资珠宝品牌，以及近年来产品设计或差异化能力较好或综 合优势明显的头部企业，有望继续强化自身业务优势，实现 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for the retail sector, anticipating a rebound in consumer spending due to potential policy support and low valuations in the sector [3][51] - Gold jewelry sector remains resilient despite price fluctuations, with a focus on brand building, craftsmanship innovation, and cultural storytelling driving long-term growth [1][12] - AI applications are expected to create new growth opportunities for online service providers, enhancing their capabilities in consumer insights and brand marketing strategies [2][19] Group 2: Gold Jewelry Sector - Gold prices have shown significant volatility, with a year-to-date increase of 12.28% until January 29, followed by a single-day drop of 8.35% on January 30, impacting short-term market sentiment but not the long-term growth logic of leading companies [1][12] - Companies with a high proportion of investment gold business, such as Cai Bai Co., are projected to see substantial revenue growth, with expected net profits for 2025 ranging from 1.06 to 1.23 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.43% to 71.07% [14][18] Group 3: AI and E-commerce - The introduction of AI technologies is reshaping industry dynamics, particularly in e-commerce, where the shift from traditional search to generative AI dialogue is expected to transform brand marketing strategies [20][21] - Online service providers are positioned to leverage deep partnerships with leading e-commerce platforms, enhancing their ability to generate content and optimize marketing efforts through AI [21][23] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - For the gold jewelry sector, companies like Cai Bai Co., Luk Fook Holdings, and Chow Tai Fook are recommended due to their strong growth potential and low valuations [3][51] - In the beauty and personal care sector, companies such as Proya Cosmetics and Mao Geping are highlighted for their innovative product launches and platform strategies [3][51] - Cross-border e-commerce leaders like Small Commodity City and Anker Innovations are expected to benefit from AI applications that enhance cost efficiency and product innovation [3][51] - Offline retail is anticipated to see a boost during the peak sales season, with companies like Miniso and Yonghui Superstores recommended for their growth prospects [3][51]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for the retail sector, indicating potential for growth in the consumer market, particularly in the jewelry and beauty segments, as well as cross-border e-commerce [3][51]. - Fluctuations in gold prices have short-term emotional impacts on the jewelry sector, but the long-term growth logic remains intact, driven by brand building, craftsmanship innovation, and cultural storytelling [1][12]. - AI applications are rapidly being integrated into the retail sector, particularly through online service providers, which are leveraging deep partnerships with major e-commerce platforms to enhance consumer insights and brand strategies [2][19]. Group 2: Industry Summaries - In the gold and jewelry sector, companies with a high proportion of investment gold business, such as Cai Bai Co., are expected to achieve stable growth despite short-term price fluctuations, with projected net profits for 2025 expected to increase by 47.43% to 71.07% [1][14]. - The beauty and personal care sector is seeing a return to low valuations, with traditional leaders showing signs of recovery and new product launches expected to drive growth [3][51]. - Cross-border e-commerce leaders have demonstrated strong resilience against risks, with AI applications expected to enhance cost efficiency and product innovation, providing a catalyst for sustained growth [3][51]. Group 3: Recent Industry Data - In December 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 45,136 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.9%, indicating a weak overall growth trend influenced by high base effects from the previous year [24][30]. - Online retail sales for the year reached 159,722 billion yuan, growing by 8.6%, with physical goods online retail accounting for 26.1% of total retail sales, reflecting a slight increase in penetration [25][30]. - The jewelry category saw a year-on-year growth of 5.9% in December, supported by rising prices and holiday gifting demand, while the cosmetics category grew by 8.8% due to promotional activities and consumption upgrades [30].

Core Viewpoint - The silver economy in China is experiencing significant growth, with projections indicating that the market size will exceed 16 trillion yuan by 2030, driven by the evolving consumption habits of the new generation of elderly consumers [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - In 2019, the market size of China's silver economy reached 4.3 trillion yuan, growing to 7.1 trillion yuan in 2023, and is expected to further increase to 8.3 trillion yuan in 2024. By 2030, the overall market size is anticipated to surpass 16.2 trillion yuan, indicating substantial potential for the silver economy [2]. - The new generation of elderly consumers exhibits significant differences in wealth levels, family structures, and consumption habits compared to previous generations, prompting companies to adapt their business strategies to meet these new consumer demands [2]. Group 2: Retail Sector - Leading retail companies such as Bailian Group and Chongqing Department Store are developing business models tailored to the purchasing habits and preferences of elderly consumers, addressing both social and purchasing needs [2]. - Supermarket chains like Hema and Yonghui are enhancing their product offerings and introducing "silver community canteens" to increase foot traffic and conversion rates among elderly shoppers [2]. Group 3: Gold and Jewelry Sector - Middle-aged and elderly consumers have historically been the primary market for gold products, driven by a focus on value preservation and brand loyalty. Companies like Caibai and Lao Fengxiang are leveraging their strong brand foundations to cater to this demographic [3]. - These companies are enhancing their product offerings through collaborations and improving customer loyalty via robust after-sales services, positioning themselves to benefit from the expanding customer base [3]. Group 4: Beauty and Personal Care Sector - The proportion of elderly consumers in the beauty and medical aesthetics markets is steadily increasing, with significant growth potential in both volume and pricing, similar to trends observed in mature overseas markets [4]. - Leading companies with strong upstream raw material capabilities and comprehensive solutions, such as Huaxi Biological and Aimeike, are expected to benefit from the rising sales among elderly consumers [4]. - Companies focused on elderly care, like Kelaibao, are also poised to gain from the expanding target audience in the personal care sector [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the industry [2][48]. Core Insights - The silver economy in China is rapidly expanding, with the market size projected to grow from 4.3 trillion yuan in 2019 to 7.1 trillion yuan in 2023, and further to 8.3 trillion yuan in 2024. By 2030, the market is expected to exceed 16.2 trillion yuan, indicating significant growth potential [3][5][42]. - The new generation of elderly consumers, primarily those born in the 1960s and 1970s, exhibit different consumption habits compared to previous generations, focusing more on enjoyment and quality rather than just practicality [19][34]. Summary by Sections Market Size and Growth - The silver economy market size in China reached 4.3 trillion yuan in 2019, growing to 7.1 trillion yuan in 2023, and is expected to reach 8.3 trillion yuan in 2024. By 2030, it is projected to surpass 16.2 trillion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.5% from 2025 to 2030 [3][5][42]. Consumer Behavior - The new elderly demographic is characterized by higher education levels and disposable income, leading to a shift in consumption from "saving" to "enjoyment." They prioritize health, quality, and emotional experiences in their purchasing decisions [19][25][34]. - Online shopping is becoming increasingly popular among the elderly, with 1.56 billion users aged 60 and above, representing 14.1% of total internet users. This demographic is significantly influenced by peer recommendations and social media [20][24]. Industry Trends - Retailers are adapting to the needs of elderly consumers by creating shopping environments that combine social interaction with purchasing. Companies like Bailian and Chongqing Department Store are developing tailored business models to cater to the preferences of this demographic [3][26][42]. - In the jewelry sector, older consumers remain a key market, with a focus on investment and brand loyalty. Companies like Caibai and Laofengxiang are enhancing their offerings to meet the demands of this consumer group [4][43]. Beauty and Healthcare - The beauty and healthcare market for the elderly is expanding, with a notable increase in the consumption of skincare and medical beauty services. The market for beauty products among consumers aged 50 and above is growing, with significant sales increases reported [34][37]. - The medical beauty sector is also expected to grow, with older consumers increasingly seeking anti-aging treatments and comprehensive care solutions [39][40]. Policy Support - Recent government policies are aimed at promoting the silver economy, emphasizing the importance of addressing the needs of the elderly population and fostering the development of related industries [9][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The retail sector is expected to show varied performance in Q4 2025, with significant growth in certain segments like gold and jewelry, while others like supermarkets and department stores are projected to decline [1][2][4] - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming Spring Festival season, suggesting that sectors with performance elasticity, such as duty-free shops and certain tourist attractions, should be closely monitored [9] - The report emphasizes the potential of AI applications in enhancing e-commerce marketing, indicating a shift towards new retail strategies [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector Outlook - Gold and Jewelry: - Lao Feng Xiang: Expected net profit growth of -15% to 5% in Q4 2025 - Zhou Da Sheng: Expected net profit growth of 15% to 30% in Q4 2025 - Chao Hong Ji: Forecasted net profit of 1.2 to 2.2 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 125% to 175% - Cai Bai Co.: Expected net profit growth of 150% to 254% in Q4 2025 - Yu Garden Co.: Forecasted loss of 4.312 billion in Q4 2025, compared to a loss of 1.03 billion in the same period last year [1] - Trendy Toys: - Miniso: Expected revenue growth of 25% to 30% in Q4 2025, with adjusted net profit growth of 10% to 20% [1] Supermarkets and Department Stores - Chongqing Department Store: Expected net profit of 1.021 billion, a decline of 22.4% year-on-year, with a projected drop of 92.5% in Q4 2025 - Wangfujing: Expected net profit loss of 0.45 to 0.23 billion, with a growth rate of -6.6% to 7.3% in Q4 2025 - Yonghui Supermarket: Expected loss of 2.14 billion, with a net profit growth rate of -3.1% in Q4 2025 - Home Home Joy: Expected net profit of 198 to 228 million, with a growth rate of 50.1% to 72.8% in Q4 2025 [2] Cross-Border and E-commerce - Small Commodity City: Expected net profit growth of 5% to 15% in Q4 2025 - Anker Innovation: Expected net profit growth of 10% to 20% in Q4 2025 - Su Mei Da: Expected net profit of 1.355 billion, with a growth rate of 70.8% in Q4 2025 [3] Social Services Sector Outlook - Duty-Free: China Duty-Free Group: Expected net profit growth of 29% to 173% in Q4 2025 - Tourism: - Songcheng Performance: Expected net profit growth of -204% to 294% in Q4 2025 - Jiuhua Tourism: Expected net profit growth of 0% to 15% in Q4 2025 [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors with performance elasticity during the Spring Festival, including duty-free, certain tourist attractions, and gold and jewelry [9] - For 2026, the report suggests looking at service consumption and product consumption, particularly in duty-free and travel chains, as well as undervalued segments with improving fundamentals [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sub-sectors with performance elasticity during the upcoming Spring Festival peak season, including duty-free, certain scenic spots, supermarkets, and gold jewelry [9] - It suggests that the recent fundamentals of duty-free and travel chains have improved, warranting ongoing observation and validation [9] - For 2026, the report recommends focusing on service consumption and product consumption, particularly in the duty-free and travel chain sectors, as well as the gold jewelry sector and Miniso, which have high valuation attractiveness [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Gold Jewelry: - Lao Feng Xiang: Expected net profit growth of -15% to 5% - Zhou Da Sheng: Expected net profit growth of 15% to 30% - Chao Hong Ji: Forecasted net profit of 436 million to 533 million, a year-on-year increase of 125% to 175% - Cai Bai Co.: Expected net profit of 1.06 billion to 1.23 billion, corresponding to a growth of 150% to 254% - Yu Garden Co.: Forecasted loss of 4.312 billion, primarily due to asset impairment provisions [1] - Trendy Toys: - Miniso: Expected revenue growth of 25% to 30%, with adjusted operating profit and net profit growth of 10% to 20% [1] Supermarket and Department Store Outlook for Q4 2025 - Chongqing Department Store: Expected net profit of 1.021 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22.4% - Wangfujing: Expected net profit of -45 million to -23 million, with a growth rate of -6.6% to 7.3% - Yonghui Supermarket: Expected loss of 2.14 billion, with a growth rate of -3.1% - Jiajiayue: Expected net profit of 198 million to 228 million, growth of 50.1% to 72.8% - Hongqi Chain: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 0% [2] Cross-Border and E-commerce Outlook for Q4 2025 - Small Commodity City: Expected net profit growth of 5% to 15% - Anker Innovation: Expected net profit growth of 10% to 20% - Saiwei Times: Expected net profit of 90 million to 130 million - Huakai Yibai: Expected net profit of 80 million to 110 million, driven by improved operational efficiency [3] Social Services Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Duty-Free: China Duty-Free Group: Expected net profit growth of 29% to 173% - Tourism: - Songcheng Performance: Expected net profit growth of -204% to 294% - Tianmu Lake: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 5% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Small Commodity City, China Duty-Free, Huazhu Group, Shoulu Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel, Chao Hong Ji, Jiuhua Tourism, Ruoyu Chen, Qingmu Technology, and Miniso, while also keeping an eye on other companies with potential [10]