证券研究报告 关注节后成交走势，三重对比港资房企 向上空间仍存 地产行业周报 行业评级：地产 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所地产团队 2026年2月1日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 1 核心摘要 2 周度观点：春节后到3月为楼市下一个重要观察节点，优质房企中期维度仍具备性价比。随着近期二手房市场成交回暖，本周市场对地产 关注度仍在升温，但对后续看法呈现分化。我们认为短期随着春节逐步临近，市场成交或趋于回落，节后到3月将是楼市下一个重要观察 节点。从板块投资来看，我们仍维持上周观点，在短期二手房成交淡季不淡、房企业绩压力提前释放、政策端不断释放积极信号等背景 下，中期维度来看优质房企已有一定配置价值。 全年看好港资房企，三重维度对比向上仍有空间。1月港资房企表现靓丽，我们持续提示的新鸿基地产、恒基地产、信和置业单月涨幅达 32.7%、10.6%、15.3%，市场对于香港楼市延续上行逐步形成共识，更关注后续个股空间，我们认为港资房企上行空间仍存：1）以新鸿 基地产为例，目前PB为0.59倍，仍低于业务模式（开发+持有）类似的华润置地（0.72PB），但香港楼市已经企稳，内地楼市仍在探底； 2）上轮香港楼市调整于2 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [3] Core Views - The real estate market is entering a traditional off-season, with expectations for stronger policy support [3] - In January, the transaction volume of second-hand homes outperformed new homes, indicating a preference for second-hand properties due to better value [8] - The performance of the real estate sector has improved recently, driven by marginal improvements in transaction data and expectations for policy changes [8] Summary by Sections Recent Industry Performance - Over the past 12 months, the relative return compared to the CSI 300 index has been -9%, while the absolute return has been +15% [4] - In January, the transaction volume of second-hand homes in core cities showed significant year-on-year growth, while new home transactions remained weak [5][6] Key City Insights - Beijing: Second-hand home transactions increased by 397% year-on-year, while new home transactions rose by 565% [5] - Shanghai: Second-hand home transactions increased by 806% year-on-year, while new home transactions rose by 525% [6] - Shenzhen: Second-hand home transactions increased by 15% year-on-year, but new home transactions decreased by 64% [6] National Trends - In 30 major cities, the transaction area for new homes increased by 109% year-on-year, but decreased by 26.66% when adjusted for the Spring Festival [7] - The transaction area for second-hand homes increased by 309% year-on-year, with a 12% increase in cumulative transactions for January [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies with land reserves in core cities and high-end improvement products, such as Poly Developments [8] - It also recommends head intermediary firms like I Love My Home, which are expected to benefit from the increasing share of second-hand home transactions [8]

国泰君安期货·能源化工 短纤、瓶片周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 日期：2026年2月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 瓶片（PR） 短纤：短期震荡市，中期偏弱 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 供需平衡表 03 短纤（PF） 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 CONTENTS 01 观点小结 上游观点汇总 瓶片：震荡偏弱 2 02 观点小结 01 本周短纤观点：高位震荡，控制仓位 供应 短纤工厂开始集中检修，平均负荷降低至85.3%，低熔点及中空短纤方面减停力度较大，棉型相对较小。 需求 终端开工率加速下行，以农历时间对比略早于往年。在原料快速上涨过程中，纱线、坯布价格跟涨不及，下游一方面担心年后价格上涨，另一 方面受制于利润，小幅补年前的库存为主。纱线、坯布环节的成品库存下降。出口订单环比好转，主要由于当前至美国的关税较东南亚无显著 劣势。短纤库存低位， ...

导 读 1、土地成交规模处于季节性低位 2、百强门槛均较同期下滑 3、投资TOP100拿地金额同比降幅近五成 4、供地"窗口期"开启后土拍热度有望回升 | | 金地集团 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 12 | 保利发展 | 22.7 | | 14 | 龙湖集团 | 20. 4 | | 15 | 青铁置业 | 20. 3 20 | | 16 | 和润达开发建设 | 18.9 | | 17 | 四川城更 | 18.5 | | 18 22 11 | 浙江博策 | 17.520 | | 19 | 如东新天顺 | 16.9 | | 19 | 扬州城建 | 16.9 | | 219 | 滨海城更 | 16 3 | | 22 | 汇龙地产 | 15.4 | | 23 | 宜兴经开投资 | 15.3 | | -74 | 湖南大雷投资 | 15 7 | | 25 | 阜宁城建 | 14.7 | | 26 | 元垄地产 | 14.6 | | -27 | 锦诚汇龙房地产 | 14.1 | | 28 | 金洲房地产 | 13.2 | | 29 | 如东荣能实业 | 12.8 | | CF30 | 信阳国信发展 ...

Core Insights - In January 2026, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies amounted to 190.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.9% [3] - The equity sales for the same group reached 132.14 billion yuan [3] - The top ten companies by sales include Poly Development, China Overseas, China Resources, Greentown China, China Travel Investment, China Merchants Shekou, China Jinmao, Jianfa Real Estate, Vanke, and Binjiang Group, with only Poly, China Overseas, and China Resources exceeding 10 billion yuan in sales for the month [3] Sales Performance - The average sales for the top 10 companies was 9.33 billion yuan, down 11.6% year-on-year, while the average for companies ranked 11-30 was 2.6 billion yuan, also showing a decline [4] - The ranking of companies has shifted significantly compared to the previous year, with Vanke dropping from 5th to 9th place, while China Travel Investment emerged as a "dark horse" in 5th place [3][4] Market Trends - The decline in sales is attributed to the high base from January of the previous year when the market was more active following the September 2024 policy changes [6] - The industry is undergoing an adjustment phase, with a decrease in the number of companies achieving over 10 billion yuan in sales, while those achieving over 5 billion yuan have increased, indicating a shift from "scale competition" to "quality competition" [6] - In January 2026, 32 companies among the top 100 saw year-on-year sales growth, with 10 companies experiencing growth exceeding 100% [6] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The new housing market showed weak performance in January, with approximately 8.1 million square meters of new residential sales in 50 key cities, while the second-hand housing market saw a notable increase, with transaction volumes rising by 33% year-on-year [7][8] - The second-hand market's recovery is contributing to stabilizing market expectations, with some cities experiencing a reduction in listing volumes [8] Policy and Future Outlook - The central government has been signaling a focus on stabilizing market expectations, with recent policy measures including interest rate cuts and adjustments to down payment ratios for commercial properties [9] - The upcoming Spring Festival may lead to increased marketing efforts from real estate companies, and the introduction of quality projects could maintain a certain level of market activity in core cities [9] - As of the end of 2025, 21 distressed real estate companies have made progress in debt restructuring, but the challenge remains in converting financial relief into sustainable operational capacity [9]

Core Viewpoint - The sales performance of the top 100 real estate companies in January shows a total sales amount of 190.5 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.9% year-on-year decline, consistent with the overall decline observed in the previous year [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - In January, the top three companies by sales were Poly Developments, China Overseas Land & Investment, and China Resources Land, each exceeding 10 billion yuan in sales [1] - The equity sales amount for the top 100 companies was 132.14 billion yuan, with an equity sales area of 6.548 million square meters [1] - The average sales amount for the top 10 companies was 9.33 billion yuan, down 11.6% year-on-year; for companies ranked 11-30, the average was 2.6 billion yuan, down 25.6%; for 31-50, it was 1.03 billion yuan, down 21.0%; and for 51-100, it was 490 million yuan, down 26.7% [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The number of companies achieving over 10 billion yuan in sales decreased by 2 compared to the previous year, while the number of companies achieving over 5 billion yuan increased by 2, indicating a shift towards healthier and more sustainable development in the industry [2] - The focus of competition is shifting from "scale racing" to "quality racing," which is expected to concentrate resources on outstanding companies, thereby reducing systemic risks and enhancing the industry's resilience [2] - Various cities have released "14th Five-Year" planning suggestions, emphasizing the need for a new development model in real estate, increasing the supply of affordable housing, and improving safety management systems for housing [2] Group 3: Policy Environment - The central government has repeatedly signaled the importance of "stabilizing expectations" for the real estate market, emphasizing the need for effective expectation management [2] - The People's Bank of China has lowered the interest rates on structural monetary policy tools, while several provinces have reduced the down payment ratio for commercial property loans to 30% [2] - Local governments, such as Sichuan and Zhejiang, have issued approximately 10.5 billion yuan in special bonds to recover and acquire idle land [2] Group 4: Market Outlook - As the Spring Festival approaches, real estate companies are expected to increase marketing efforts, and the core city real estate market is likely to maintain a certain level of activity due to the introduction of quality projects [3] - However, market expectations remain weak, necessitating coordinated policy efforts from both the demand and supply sides to effectively reverse market sentiment [3]

Core Insights - In January 2026, the top 100 real estate companies in China reported a total sales revenue of 190.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.9% [1] - The equity sales amount for the same group was 132.14 billion yuan [1] - The top ten companies by sales included Poly Developments, China Overseas Land, and China Resources Land, with only Poly, China Overseas, and China Resources exceeding 10 billion yuan in sales for the month [1] Sales Performance - The average sales revenue for the top 10 companies was 9.33 billion yuan, down 11.6% year-on-year [2] - Companies ranked 11-30 had an average sales revenue of 2.6 billion yuan, a decline of 25.6% [2] - Companies ranked 31-50 reported an average sales revenue of 1.03 billion yuan, down 21.0% [2] Market Dynamics - The decline in sales is attributed to the high base from January of the previous year when the market was more active due to policy changes [5] - The real estate industry is undergoing an adjustment, with a shift from "scale competition" to "quality competition," leading to resource concentration among stronger companies [5] - In January 2026, 32 companies among the top 100 reported year-on-year sales growth, with 10 companies experiencing growth exceeding 100% [5] Market Trends - The new housing market showed weak performance in January, while the second-hand housing market demonstrated notable growth, with transaction volumes increasing by 33% year-on-year [6] - The central government has been signaling stability in market expectations, emphasizing the importance of managing expectations to stabilize the real estate market [6] - Recent policy measures include lowering the down payment ratio for commercial property loans and adjusting monetary policy tools [6] Future Outlook - As the Chinese New Year approaches, real estate companies are expected to increase marketing efforts, which may sustain some activity in core city markets [7] - There are ongoing challenges for companies to convert financial restructuring into sustainable operational capabilities [7]

百强房企1月卖房"成绩单"出炉。 2026年开年，百强房企1月卖房"成绩单"出炉。 1月31日，中指研究院发布数据显示，2026年1月，TOP100房企销售总额为1905.2亿元，同比下降18.9%；同期，TOP100房企权益销售额为1321.4亿元。 房企销售金额前十依次为：保利发展、中海地产、华润置地、绿城中国、中旅投资、招商蛇口、中国金茂、建发房产、万科、滨江集团，其中仅保利、中 海、华润单月销售过百亿。 对比上年同期，房企销售位次已经发生了较大变化。头部房企中，保利、中海、华润、绿城的顺序未变，但万科从上年1月的第5位，下滑至今年1月的第9 位。中旅投资短期内成为"黑马"，闯到今年1月房企全口径销售榜第5位。 TOP10随后的房企中，招商蛇口、建发房产、滨江集团变化不大、依然位列其中，但是华发股份从去年1月的第6位降至今年1月的第18位，同期中国铁建 从第10位降至第13位，中国金茂则从去年1月的第13位升至今年1月的第7位。 克而瑞数据显示，1月全国重点50城市新建商品住宅成交面积约810万平方米，表现较为清淡，新房市场整体进入淡季；同期，重点13城市二手房成交面积 约810万平方米，环比上升16% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, indicating a positive outlook for quality commercial real estate and potential value reassessment [4][6]. Core Insights - The first batch of three commercial real estate REITs has been accepted by the CSRC, covering underlying assets such as office buildings, hotels, and outlet malls. The expected fundraising sizes are CNY 4.002 billion for Huatai Fu Shanghai Real Estate REIT, CNY 7.47 billion for CICC Vipshop REIT, and CNY 1.703 billion for Huaan Jinjiang REIT, with projected cash distribution rates of 4.50%, 4.57%, and 5.05% respectively for 2026 [2][4][5]. - The rapid advancement of commercial real estate REITs by the CSRC is expected to lead to a broader range of participants and faster approvals in the future. This contrasts with the slower progress seen in infrastructure REITs under the NDRC [4][5]. - The establishment of a multi-tiered market for commercial real estate asset securitization is anticipated to activate existing assets, mitigate risks, and assist in corporate transformation. This will provide new financing channels and enhance the visibility of asset values [4][5]. - The report highlights two significant opportunities: the reassessment of quality commercial real estate values and the strength of premium products in core cities, suggesting that further supportive policies for the real estate market are likely to emerge [4][6]. Summary by Sections REITs Overview - The first three commercial real estate REITs cover assets including office buildings and hotels, with expected fundraising sizes of CNY 40.02 billion, CNY 74.7 billion, and CNY 17.03 billion, and cash distribution rates projected at 4.50%, 4.57%, and 5.05% for 2026 respectively [4][5]. Differences Between REITs - The report outlines key differences between NDRC and CSRC REITs, including the asset ownership structure, approval processes, and types of underlying assets, indicating a shift towards including private enterprises in the CSRC REITs [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including New Town Holdings, China Resources Land, Kerry Properties, Longfor Group, and others in the commercial real estate sector, as well as quality property management firms [4][6].

北皇姑四台子，曾经是沈阳"炙手可热"的楼市板块，万科、华润置地、保利发展、龙湖、招商蛇口等品牌房企纷纷屯兵于此。但随着在售楼盘的陆续售 罄，板块随之沉寂。 板块上一次供地，还要追溯到2020年。招商蛇口以5600元/建筑平方米的价格，以及配建27000平租赁用房的附加条件竞得北四台子村二期-2地块，打造招 商公园1872项目。 重磅消息传来，2026政府工作报告显示，皇姑区加快怒江北街西-1、澜沧江街西等总面积27.55万平方米的5宗土地整理和出让工作，四台子板块又 要"杀"回来了！ 地上建筑拆除？怒江北街西-1地块终于要拍了 据了解，怒江北街西-1地块并非新面孔。 2023年2月24日，皇姑区举行核心板块项目推介签约大会暨城市更新合伙人启动仪式，怒江北街西-1地块就曾亮相。 地块整体呈"长方形"，较"方正"，目前已为"净地"。地块整体体量不大，猜测土地面积20000平方米左右。 另外，值得一提的是，地块位于皇姑与于洪区交界处。2025年10月21日，富禹地产以楼面价2250元/建筑平方竞得于洪区17.9万平正良四路1-1地块。 随着该地块的建设以及怒江北街西-1地块的出让，未来区域整体面貌将大幅提升，皇姑、 ...