1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply of industrial silicon has decreased slightly, but due to weak downstream demand, market activity is limited. It is expected that the price of industrial silicon still has room to decline. Suggest considering shorting opportunities for si2605, buying put options, or implementing an arbitrage strategy of shorting industrial silicon and going long on polysilicon [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon market shows a situation of having prices but no trading. Although some production enterprises have reduced supply, inventory consumption is limited, and the effect of supply - demand adjustment has not yet appeared. Future price trends still depend on the improvement of supply - demand balance and industry policy orientation. Suggest considering long opportunities for PS2605, or implementing an arbitrage strategy of shorting industrial silicon and going long on polysilicon [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - ly Views and Hot News 3.1.1 Hot News - From April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic and other products will be cancelled. From April 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6%, and from January 1, 2027, the VAT export tax rebate for battery products will be cancelled [8]. - A rumored meeting minutes show that on January 6, the State Administration for Market Regulation约谈ed relevant units in the photovoltaic industry, mainly involving issues such as monopoly risks and rectification requirements. It is speculated that the limit - down of the polysilicon futures was affected by this [8]. - On December 26, 2025, the State Administration for Market Regulation carried out compliance guidance on price competition in the photovoltaic industry in Hefei, Anhui, pointing out the "involution - style" competition problems in the industry [8]. - On December 24, 2025, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced the addition of several polysilicon futures delivery warehouses [8]. - On December 23, 2025, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange restricted the single - day opening volume of non - futures company members or clients in polysilicon futures contracts [8]. 3.1.2 Industrial Silicon Weekly View - **Market Review**: From January 16 - 23, 2026, the industrial silicon spot price remained stable, with the benchmark spot price at 8,802 yuan/ton on January 23. The futures price of the main contract declined, with a weekly decline of 2.50%, and the latest transaction price was 8,820 yuan/ton, and the current position was about 231,400 lots [11]. - **Supply**: In the southwest region, only a few manufacturers are operating, with low production. In Xinjiang, production is stable; in Inner Mongolia, some manufacturers have reduced production; in Shaanxi, some manufacturers have resumed production [11]. - **Demand**: In January, the polysilicon output continued to decline, and the industry's operating rate decreased. The silicone industry was affected by the cancellation of export tax rebates, and the aluminum rod output decreased, with general demand for industrial silicon [11]. - **Cost, Profit, and Inventory**: The production cost of industrial silicon decreased slightly this week, mainly due to the decline in silicon coal prices. Profits increased slightly, and the inventory remained at a high level [11]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: It is expected that the price of industrial silicon will still decline. Suggest shorting si2605, buying put options, or implementing an arbitrage strategy [11]. 3.1.3 Polysilicon Weekly View - **Market Review**: From January 16 - 23, 2026, the polysilicon spot price fluctuated downward, with the benchmark spot price at 50,505 yuan/ton on January 23. The futures price of the main contract declined, with a weekly decline of 2.14%, and the current position was about 46,200 lots [13]. - **Supply**: In January 2026, the polysilicon output continued to decline, and most enterprises were operating at reduced loads. It is expected that the domestic polysilicon output in January will be about 95,000 tons [13]. - **Demand**: Although the downstream demand schedule has increased compared with the initial forecast of the month, it is still declining month - on - month. The demand in the energy storage field is expected to be optimistic, but the power battery is in the off - season, and the procurement demand is restricted [13]. - **Cost, Profit, and Inventory**: This week, the cost increased, and the profit decreased significantly. The inventory showed a "high - level fluctuation" characteristic, and the overall inventory continued to accumulate [13]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The polysilicon market shows a situation of having prices but no trading. Future price trends depend on supply - demand balance and policies. Suggest going long on PS2605 or implementing an arbitrage strategy [13]. 3.2 Industry Pattern - The industrial silicon industry chain includes raw materials such as petroleum coke, charcoal, etc. The products are mainly used in organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy industries, and are further applied in various fields such as electronics, construction, and new energy [19]. 3.3 Spot and Futures Market - The report provides multiple charts of industrial silicon spot prices (including different grades and regions) and futures contract prices (including continuous contracts and active contracts) [23][33][41] 3.4 Inventory - The report provides multiple charts of industrial silicon inventory, including industry inventory, factory inventory, market inventory, and futures inventory [52][56] 3.5 Cost and Profit - **Profit and Cost**: The report provides charts of the comprehensive profit and cost of industrial silicon [63] - **Main Production Area Electricity Prices**: Charts of electricity prices in main industrial silicon production areas such as Yunnan Nujiang, Xinjiang, and Sichuan Liangshan are provided [68][70] - **Silica Stone Prices**: Charts of silica stone prices in regions such as Guangxi, Henan, and Shaanxi are provided [77][81] - **Petroleum Coke, Electrodes, and Silicon Coal**: Charts of prices of petroleum coke, graphite electrodes, and silicon coal in different regions are provided [84][90] 3.6 Supply - **Output**: Charts of industrial silicon weekly and monthly output are provided [96] - **Operating Rate and Production Capacity**: Charts of industrial silicon operating rate and monthly production capacity are provided, and information on new production capacity projects in various regions in 2025 - 2026 is listed, with a total new production capacity of 1.98 million tons [101][104] 3.7 Demand - **Consumption Overview**: Charts of industrial silicon consumption breakdown and structure are provided, and consumption data of different industries from 2024 - 2025 are listed [107][110] - **Polysilicon**: Charts of polysilicon monthly output, price, factory inventory, cost, and profit are provided [113][118] - **Silicone**: Charts of silicone market price, intermediate (DMC) monthly output, production cost, and production gross profit in the East China region are provided [123][129] - **Aluminum Rod**: Charts of aluminum rod weekly and monthly output, price, 6063 spot inventory, and original aluminum - based alloy production, operating rate are provided [134][138][140] - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: Charts of recycled aluminum alloy production, production capacity, operating rate, and inventory are provided [149][151] - **Solar/PV**: Charts of solar cell cumulative output and battery slice price are provided [156] 3.8 Import and Export - The report provides charts of industrial silicon and polysilicon import and export volumes [166][170]

行 业 及 产 业 煤炭/ 煤炭开采 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 2026 年 01 月 26 日 节前寒潮频繁扰动，有望支撑煤价 反弹 看好 ——煤炭行业周报（2026.1.17-2026.1.23） 本期投资提示： | 1．近期行业政策及动态 | 4 | | --- | --- | | 2．产地动力煤价环比下跌、焦煤价环比持平 | 5 | | 3．国际油价上涨 | 6 | | 4．环渤海港口库存环比下降 | 7 | | 5．国内沿海运费环比上涨 | 8 | | 6．重点公司估值表 | 9 | | 7．风险提示 | 9 | ⚫ 动力煤 ...

【电网设备股逆势走强 望变电气涨停】智通财经1月26日电，电网设备股盘中逆势走强，望变电气涨 停，亿能电力涨超10%，三变科技、特变电工、智洋创新、保变电气跟涨。消息面上，"十五五"期间， 国家电网公司固定资产投资预计达到4万亿元，较"十四五"投资增长40%。 转自：智通财经 ...

个股方面，1月23日，有1460股获融资净买入，净买入金额在5000万元以上的有131股。其中，19股获融 资净买入额超2亿元。新易盛获融资净买入额居首，净买入5.7亿元；融资净买入金额居前的还有中国平 安、信维通信、中际旭创、江化微、紫金矿业、特变电工、金风科技、中国卫星等股。 Wind统计显示，1月23日，申万31个一级行业中有12个行业获融资净买入，其中，有色金属行业获融资 净买入额居首，当日净买入28亿元；获融资净买入居前的行业还有国防军工、银行、通信、非银金融、 交通运输等。 （文章来源：证券时报网） ...

沪深两市数据显示，1月23日，融资净买入前十的股票分别为：HS300ETF（7.03亿元）、300ETF（6.19 亿元）、 中国平安（5.57亿元）、 江化微（4.66亿元）、 紫金矿业（4.37亿元）、 特变电工（4.18亿 元）、 中国卫星（4.03亿元）、 航天电子（3.65亿元）、 海光信息（3.36亿元）、 中国铝业（3.17亿 元）。 ...

Market Performance - The A-share market showed mixed performance this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.83%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.11%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.34% [1] - The precious metals and photovoltaic equipment sectors performed well, with small metals and oil and gas exploration stocks also showing active performance [1] Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector saw significant gains, with Hunan Silver rising by 47.44% and Sichuan Gold increasing by 46.74% [1] - On January 24, the London spot gold price reached a high of $4,989.54 per ounce, and Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month gold price target to $5,400 per ounce [1] - Global central banks continue to maintain net purchases of gold, and there are concerns that if a more dovish candidate is nominated for the next Federal Reserve chair, there could be more than two rate cuts by 2026, which would lower the cost of holding gold [1] Photovoltaic Equipment Sector - The photovoltaic equipment sector was notably active, with Liancheng CNC rising by 48.54% and Optec increasing by 33.93% [1] - On January 19, five departments jointly launched a national action for zero-carbon factory construction, issuing guidelines that encourage the installation of photovoltaic systems and wind power, as well as integrated applications of energy storage [1] - The initiative aims to select the first batch of benchmark zero-carbon factories by 2026, directly stimulating new demand for photovoltaics in the industrial sector [1] Main Capital Flows - Major capital inflows were observed in Haiguang Information and Aerospace Electronics, with net inflows exceeding 1.5 billion yuan [2] - Conversely, significant capital outflows were noted from Sanhua Intelligent Control, Zhongji Xuchuang, Tebian Electric, and Xiangnong Xinchuan, with net outflows exceeding 4 billion yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant expansion of China's power grid, which is expected to reshape the lithium battery demand structure due to a massive investment plan by the State Grid Corporation, amounting to 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, marking a 40% increase from the previous plan [1][3]. Investment and Development Goals - The State Grid's investment plan aligns with the 1710 document, which sets clear targets for the development of a new type of power grid by 2030, aiming for renewable energy to account for approximately 30% of total power generation and to support over 40 million charging facilities [2][4]. - The total investment in China's power grid during the 15th Five-Year Plan is projected to exceed 5 trillion yuan, with significant investments in the southern power grid as well [3]. Challenges in Renewable Energy Integration - By 2025, the installed capacity of renewable energy is expected to approach 50%, but the actual power generation from these sources is projected to be less than 25%, indicating a significant gap due to the grid's inability to accommodate new energy sources [4][5]. - The increasing cost of integrating renewable energy into the grid is highlighted, with estimates suggesting that for every 1% increase in renewable energy penetration, system costs rise by approximately 0.01 yuan per kilowatt-hour [6]. Structural Reforms in the Power Grid - The 1710 document proposes a transformative approach to the power grid, emphasizing a collaborative structure involving main, distribution, and micro grids, which aims to enhance the grid's capacity to integrate renewable energy [10][11]. - Key development goals include improving cross-regional transmission capabilities and optimizing the grid structure to support a significant increase in renewable energy integration by 2030 [11][12]. Focus Areas for Future Investments - Future investments will primarily target core technology areas such as distributed independent energy storage and smart microgrid solutions, which are essential for enhancing the grid's capacity to accept renewable energy [15][20]. - The article emphasizes the importance of advanced technologies like grid-forming inverters and energy storage systems to address dynamic stability issues caused by high levels of renewable energy integration [18][23]. Conclusion - The 1710 document is positioned as a guiding framework for the next decade of power grid development in China, aiming to facilitate a transition towards a new energy system that can effectively support high levels of renewable energy integration [24].

国家电网4万亿投资"点火"，"引燃"了资本市场电网设备赛道，不少电网设备企业在资金追捧下，不断走高。这其中就包括电气巨头思源电气。 1月16日和1月19日，A股电力设备龙头思源电气曾连续两个交易日涨停，股价创出历史新高，1月19日收盘市值高达1597亿元。在这之后，其股价略有回 落，截至1月23日收盘，思源电气最新市值为1475亿元。 从消息面上，思源电气的股价连续涨停与两则消息有关。第一是国家电网宣布将在"十五五"期间固定资产投资将达到4万亿元，思源电气作为国家电网重 要供应商将直接受益。第二则是思源电气公布了2025年业绩快报，营收同比增长37.18%至212.05亿元，归母净利润同比增长54.35%至31.63亿元，均创出 了历史新高。 在爆发的股价和业绩背后，思源电气这家电力设备龙头，正在发生什么样的变化？ 6.2万元起步 避雷器是用于电力系统避免雷击或高电压危害的设备，与之匹配的检测仪则是为了检测避雷器是否正常工作的装置。董增平三人之所以选择这个方向，是 因为当时国内引进了国外技术生产大量110kV、220kV、500kV金属氧化物避雷器，但国内没有相应的检测设备，只能进口高价的国外设备。这也意味 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shenzhen Toptech Technology Co., Ltd. (Toptech), is engaged in the research, production, and sales of smart controllers, which are increasingly in demand due to the rapid development of smart home, smart equipment, and smart transportation industries. The company has successfully passed the review for its IPO on the Beijing Stock Exchange [1][25]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Toptech's core product, smart controllers, generated annual revenue of 1 billion yuan, with a research and development expense ratio less than half of its peers [2][26]. - The company achieved revenues of 569 million yuan, 772 million yuan, 1.035 billion yuan, and 568 million yuan from 2022 to the first half of 2025, with net profits of 62 million yuan, 77 million yuan, 102 million yuan, and 60 million yuan respectively [6][30]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is 1.138 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.9%, with a net profit forecast of 109 million yuan, up 6.71% [6][30]. Group 2: Product Segmentation - Smart controllers are categorized into three main types: consumer, industrial, and renewable energy, with consumer controllers being the largest revenue source, contributing 45.36%, 40.76%, 52.26%, and 52.53% of total revenue from 2022 to the first half of 2025 [5][29]. - Industrial controllers, used in automation and automotive electronics, have seen a declining revenue share, while renewable energy controllers have shown significant growth, contributing 22.12%, 37.49%, 31.43%, and 30.75% to total revenue during the same period [5][29]. Group 3: Customer Dependency - Toptech relies heavily on its top five customers, with their sales revenue accounting for 57.95%, 61.11%, 67.19%, and 69.97% from 2022 to the first half of 2025, indicating increasing customer concentration [9][33]. - The largest customer, TTI, has seen its sales contribution grow from 10.63% in 2022 to 35.26% in 2024, although it decreased to 32.72% in the first half of 2025 [10][34]. Group 4: R&D and Competitive Position - Toptech's R&D expense ratio was significantly lower than the industry average, at 3.69%, 2.83%, 2.78%, and 3.29% compared to peers averaging around 6.6% to 7.48% during the same periods [6][31]. - The company attributes its lower R&D spending to its growth stage compared to established competitors, maintaining stable product specifications with existing clients, which requires less investment in product development [8][32]. Group 5: International Expansion - In 2021, Toptech established a subsidiary in Vietnam to enhance its production and sales capabilities, particularly targeting TTI, with production capacity gradually being released in 2023 [11][35]. - The Vietnamese subsidiary has shown a turnaround in performance, achieving net profits of 685,410 yuan in 2023 and 3.901 million yuan in 2024, with further growth expected in 2025 [40][42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook, focusing on long-term opportunities in cyclical industries [2][24]. Core Viewpoints - The macro timing model for January 2026 scored 0, indicating a 76.92% probability of an increase in the Wande All A Index over the following month, with an average expected gain of 3.18% [24][31]. - The report emphasizes the strong upward momentum in cyclical industries, particularly in non-ferrous metals and chemicals, driven by global macro events [24][25]. - Short-term investments in thematic sectors such as commercial aerospace, AI applications, and space photovoltaics have shown significant rebounds, although caution is advised due to potential volatility from rapid price increases [25][27]. Fund Size Statistics - In the period from January 19 to January 23, 2026, the top three increasing equity ETF types were: thematic index ETFs (59.135 billion), industry index ETFs (7.975 billion), and cross-border industry index ETFs (5.346 billion) [9][10]. - The top three increasing equity ETF products were: power grid equipment ETF (7.326 billion), chemical ETF (5.717 billion), and sci-tech chip ETF (3.953 billion) [10][14]. - The top three increasing equity ETF tracking indices were: segmented chemical index (9.829 billion), power grid equipment thematic index (7.326 billion), and SSH gold stock index (5.251 billion) [18][20]. Market Outlook - The report suggests a positive outlook for the A-share market in January 2026, with a focus on the micro-cap index and the CSI 500 leading the market [24][25]. - Long-term recommendations include a focus on non-ferrous metals and chemicals, with silver prices surpassing the psychological level of 100, indicating potential for further increases [24][25]. - The report anticipates a market characterized by oscillating upward trends, recommending a growth-oriented ETF allocation [67][68].