公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 中国国航（601111）2025 年业绩预告点评 推荐（维持） 25 年递延所得税资产转回影响，归母净利亏损， 经营端持续改善，看好行业供需格局下龙头弹性 公司公布 2025 年业绩预告： 2025 年预计实现归母净利-13 至-19 亿，2024 年为-2.37 亿；扣非归母净利-19 至-27 亿，2024 年为-25.40 亿。 2025Q4 归母净利为-31.70 至-37.70 亿，2024Q4 为-15.99 亿；2025Q4 扣非归母 净利为-35.44 至-43.44 亿，2024Q4 为-29.72 亿。 公司归母净利润口径亏损，系公司于资产负债表日对递延所得税资产的账面 价值进行复核，相应转回部分递延所得税资产。参考中国东航预告，东航利润 总额实现盈利，但因递延所得税资产转回，增加所得税费用，归母净利润口径 同为负，但经营口径大幅改善。 风险提示：经济大幅下滑、油价大幅上涨、汇率大幅贬值。 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- ...

Group 1: Macro News - The Ministry of Finance announced that the securities transaction stamp duty is expected to grow by 57.8% in 2025, reaching 203.5 billion yuan [1] - The number of qualified investors on the Beijing Stock Exchange has surpassed 10 million, marking a net increase of nearly 2 million compared to the same period last year [2] - The U.S. President Trump nominated former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Walsh to be the next Fed Chair, pending Senate approval [2] - The White House's Office of Management and Budget instructed affected agencies to prepare for a government shutdown due to funding expiration [3] Group 2: Commodity and Market Trends - JPMorgan predicts gold prices could rise to between $8,000 and $8,500 in the coming years, although short-term profit-taking risks exist [4] - The price of gold jewelry has dropped from 1,700 yuan to 1,500 yuan per gram following a recent spike [5] Group 3: Earnings Reports and Forecasts - Zhongji Xuchuang expects a net profit increase of 89.50% to 128.17% in 2025, driven by strong demand for computing infrastructure [6] - New Yisheng anticipates a net profit growth of 231% to 249% in 2025, benefiting from increased demand for high-speed products [6] - China International Capital Corporation forecasts a net profit increase of 50% to 85% in 2025, supported by its integrated business model [7] - Kunlun Wanwei expects a net loss of 1.35 billion to 1.95 billion yuan in 2025, despite a projected revenue growth of over 40% [7] - 360 Company predicts a net profit of 213 million to 318 million yuan in 2025, marking a return to profitability [8] - Cambrian Technology expects a net profit of 1.85 billion to 2.15 billion yuan in 2025, driven by AI demand [8] - Changchun Gaoxin anticipates a net profit decline of 91% to 94% in 2025 due to increased R&D costs [9] - Xibu Gold expects a net profit increase of 46.78% to 69.23% in 2025, attributed to higher sales and prices of gold products [10] Group 4: Corporate Actions - BlueFocus' major shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 20 million shares due to personal financial needs [12] - Air China expects a net loss of 1.3 billion to 1.9 billion yuan in 2025, despite efforts to improve operational efficiency [12] - Wentai Technology anticipates a significant net loss of 9 billion to 13.5 billion yuan in 2025 due to investment losses and asset impairments [13]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry [4]. Core Insights - The aviation sector is expected to see significant improvement in profitability by 2025, with a continuous increase in passenger flow during the Spring Festival, indicating a strong performance in peak seasons. Airlines are projected to reduce losses significantly in 2025, with Air China, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Hainan Airlines forecasting net profits of -1.6 billion, -1.6 billion, 0.9 billion, and 2.0 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a reduction in losses [3][4]. - The oil shipping sector anticipates a substantial increase in profitability in Q1 2026, driven by rising oil production in the Middle East and South America, as well as changes in import regulations from India. The report highlights a bullish outlook for the oil shipping market, suggesting a super bull market is on the horizon [3][4]. - The railway sector plans for a 3.5% increase in passenger flow in 2026, with recent adjustments to train schedules increasing the number of scheduled passenger trains by 2%. The report notes that the railway network has expanded significantly, enhancing connectivity across major urban areas [4]. Summary by Sections Aviation - The report forecasts a 5% year-on-year increase in civil aviation passenger volume for 2025, with domestic passenger volume expected to grow by 4% and international passenger volume by 22% [6][9]. - The Spring Festival demand is anticipated to remain strong, with an estimated 10% year-on-year increase in passenger flow during the holiday period [4]. Oil Shipping - The report indicates that the average earnings for oil tankers are expected to increase significantly, with the TCE (Time Charter Equivalent) for VLCCs on the Middle East to China route rising to 123,000 USD, reflecting a robust demand outlook [4][5]. Railway - The railway sector's operational capacity has expanded, with over 165,000 kilometers of operational railways, including more than 50,000 kilometers of high-speed rail. The report estimates that the number of passengers transported by rail will reach 4.402 billion in 2026, marking a new high [4].

中国国航、中国东航、南方航空、海航控股、华夏航空近日公布2025年年度业绩预告。报告期内，国 航、东航、南航三大航共减亏32.59亿至45.59亿元。南航和海航预计实现年度扭亏为盈，华夏航空净利 润同比扩大，东航亏损同比收窄，而国航亏损同比扩大。 具体来看，中国国航预计公司2025年度将出现亏损，归属于上市公司股东的净亏损约为人民币13亿元到 人民币19亿元，归属于上市公司股东扣除非经常性损益后的净亏损约为人民币19亿元到人民币27亿元。 中国东航预计2025年度归属于上市公司股东的净利润约为-13亿元至-18亿元。预计2025年度归属于上市 公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润约为人民币-27亿元至-33亿元。2025年，中国东航全年完成运输 总周转量279.81亿吨公里，旅客运输量近1.50亿人次，分别同比增长10.82%和6.68%，利润总额预计为 人民币2亿元至3亿元。 据南方航空公告，预计公司2025年度将实现扭亏为盈，实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为人民币8.00 亿元到人民币10.00亿元。对于业绩预增的原因，公告称，南方航空积极主动作为，抢抓市场机遇，精 准投放运力，优化客货经营布局，强化精益成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance forecast of the four major Chinese airlines shows significant divergence, with China Southern Airlines and Hainan Airlines expected to report profits, while Air China and China Eastern Airlines anticipate losses [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance Forecasts - Air China is expected to report a net loss of 1.3 billion to 1.9 billion yuan [1]. - China Southern Airlines anticipates a net profit of 800 million to 1 billion yuan, benefiting from its logistics assets and proactive market strategies [1]. - Hainan Airlines forecasts a net profit of 1.8 billion to 2.2 billion yuan, attributing its success to operational adjustments and the positive impact of the Hainan Free Trade Port [1]. - China Eastern Airlines expects a net loss of 1.3 billion to 1.8 billion yuan, although this loss is projected to narrow compared to the previous year [2]. Group 2: Operational Metrics and Industry Growth - In 2025, China's civil aviation industry is projected to achieve record-high transportation metrics, with a total turnover of 1,640.8 billion ton-kilometers and passenger transport volume of 770 million, reflecting year-on-year growth of 10.5% and 5.5% respectively [3]. - The comprehensive passenger load factor for the four airlines exceeded 80%, with China Southern Airlines at 85.74% and China Eastern Airlines at 85.86% [3]. - The Civil Aviation Administration of China forecasts continued growth in 2026, with expected transportation turnover of 1,750 billion ton-kilometers and passenger transport volume of 810 million [3].

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|航空机场 亏损收敛、扭亏兑现，内需叙事启新篇 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-01-31 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]许可 SAC 执证号：S0260523120004 SFC CE No. BUY008 0755-88285832 -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 02/25 04/25 06/25 09/25 11/25 01/26 航空机场 沪深300 | | xuke@gf.com.cn | | --- | --- | | 分析师： | 陈宇 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260524100002 | | | SFC CE No. BLW740 | | | 021-38003771 | | | shchenyu@gf.com.cn | 证券研究报告 [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] [Table_Title] 航空机场行业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the shipping industry, highlighting strong performance in the sector despite seasonal challenges [4]. Core Insights - The shipbuilding sector is expected to show significant earnings growth, with Su Mei Da's Q4 net profit forecasted at 2.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 71%, driven by strong contributions from shipbuilding and power generation [5]. - The shipping market continues to experience robust demand, with one-year charter rates for VLCCs rising by 2.8% to $64,000 per day, and Cape rates increasing by 8.4% to $28,700 per day [5]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing volatility in oil transportation rates, with VLCC rates experiencing a 62% increase in a single day due to supply-demand imbalances and geopolitical tensions [5]. - The dry bulk shipping market is also showing resilience, with the BDI index rising by 21.9% week-on-week, driven by strong demand from Australia and Brazil [5]. Summary by Sections Shipbuilding Sector - Su Mei Da's Q4 net profit is projected at 2.5 billion, up 71% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [5]. - ST Songfa's Q4 net profit is estimated between 11-14 million, with a net profit margin of 14%, reflecting a 1.6 percentage point increase from Q3 [5]. - Attention is drawn to China Shipbuilding's upcoming full consolidation of assets and the release of high-priced orders in Q1 2026 [5]. Shipping Market - The report notes a continued upward trend in shipping rates, with VLCC rates increasing by 2.8% and Cape rates by 8.4% [5]. - The VLCC average rate rose by 16% week-on-week, reaching $122,326 per day, with Middle East to Far East rates dropping by 25% [5]. - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions on oil transportation, particularly in the context of the Ukraine conflict [5]. Dry Bulk Shipping - The BDI index recorded a 21.9% increase, with Capesize rates rising by 35.8% to $31,809 per day [5]. - Strong demand from Australia and Brazil is noted, with limited supply contributing to higher rates [5]. Air Transportation - The report indicates a significant opportunity for airlines due to rising passenger volumes and historical high load factors, suggesting a potential "golden era" for the industry [5]. - Airlines such as China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines are highlighted as key players to watch [5]. Express Delivery - The report anticipates uncertainty in the express delivery sector due to fluctuating demand and industry self-regulation policies, but notes that leading companies like Zhongtong Express and YTO Express are expected to maintain their market share and profitability [5]. Rail and Road Transportation - Rail freight volumes and highway truck traffic are showing resilience, with recent data indicating a slight decline in volumes but overall stability [5]. - The report suggests that high dividend investment themes and potential value management catalysts in the highway sector are worth monitoring [5].

格隆汇1月31日｜据澎湃，时隔五年，南航预计在三大航中率先实现年度扭亏。截至1月30日晚间，中国 国航、中国东航、南方航空、海航控股、华夏航空集中披露完2025年度业绩预告。其中，南航和海航预 计实现年度扭亏为盈，华夏航空净利润同比扩大，东航亏损同比收窄，而国航亏损同比扩大。 ...

另外两家航司的业绩仍处亏损中。其中，中国国航预计2025年实现归母净利润约为-13亿元至-19亿元； 中国东航预计2025年归母净利润约为-13亿元至-18亿元。 对于亏损的原因，两家航司皆提及，报告期内转回部分前期可抵扣亏损形成的递延所得税资产，增加所 得税费用，导致归母净利润为负值。 其中，南方航空、海航控股预计2025年净利润同比扭亏为盈，中国国航、中国东航仍亏损，亏损规模较 为接近。 南方航空方面，2025年，公司预计实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润8亿元-10亿元，上年同期为-16.96 亿元。至于盈利的原因，南方航空表示，主要是因为公司积极主动作为，抢抓市场机遇，精准投放运 力，优化客货经营布局，强化精益成本管控，狠抓提质增效，经营效益持续改善。 智通财经记者还从南方航空获悉，截至2025年年底，南航集团新开及复航40余条国内国际航线，国际航 线覆盖全球46个国家和地区。 海航控股预计去年实现归母净利润18亿元-22亿元。公司表示，除了及时调整运力配给，持续加强精细 化管理，推进航线网络提质增效外，海南自由贸易港封关运作也带来了积极影响，带动了经营增长。此 外，公司大多数的租赁债务及部分贷款以外币结 ...

Core Insights - The "boomerang ticket" travel trend is gaining popularity among young travelers, allowing them to turn layover cities into travel destinations while significantly reducing costs compared to direct flights [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Demand and Growth - The "boomerang ticket" concept involves travelers using multi-segment flights to explore multiple destinations, effectively creating a "one trip, multiple experiences" model [2] - Online travel platforms like Ctrip and Fliggy are rapidly adapting to this trend by offering search and recommendation features for "boomerang tickets," with Fliggy reporting a 95% increase in search volume and a 54% increase in bookings by December 2025 [2] - Social media platforms are amplifying the trend, with related topics on Douyin and Xiaohongshu garnering millions of views, facilitating knowledge sharing among travelers [2] Group 2: Economic Impact and Value Proposition - The high cost-effectiveness of "boomerang tickets" is a primary driver of its popularity, as they often offer lower prices compared to direct flights, with an average single-segment booking price of approximately 356 yuan, which is about 44% lower than the overall average for direct flights [4][5] - Airlines and airports are enhancing services for layover travelers, with initiatives like free accommodation and meals, which further increase the attractiveness of "boomerang tickets" [5][6] - The model is stimulating local tourism economies by attracting visitors to secondary cities that may not be traditional tourist hotspots, thus filling gaps in conventional travel routes [6] Group 3: Challenges and Future Development - Despite its growth, the "boomerang ticket" model faces challenges, including potential risks related to flight delays and complex multi-segment cancellation policies, which can increase costs for travelers [7] - There is a need for improved service quality across different regions, as inconsistencies in free accommodation and meal standards can lead to traveler dissatisfaction [7] - Experts believe that non-first-tier airports could benefit significantly from this model, potentially leading to new economic opportunities in transit-related services [7][8]