Core Viewpoint - The announcement by China International Capital Corporation (CICC) regarding the proposed stock-swap merger with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities accelerates consolidation in the investment banking sector, potentially enhancing international competitiveness and strengthening the industry’s Matthew effect [1] Industry Summary - The merger is expected to increase industry concentration and catalyze valuation recovery for the brokerage sector [1] - Listed brokerages reported better-than-expected performance in Q3, with annual profit growth anticipated to be high [1] - The current price-to-book (PB) ratio for the sector stands at 1.4 times, which is at the 36th percentile over the past decade, indicating a mismatch with performance [1] Stock Selection Strategy - The focus should be on brokerages with solid fundamentals but whose valuations remain misaligned with their performance [1] - Brokerages with a high A-share to H-share premium should also be considered for investment [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3876.37, up 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.29% to 13053.97. The ChiNext Index decreased by 2.17% to 3107.06, and the STAR Market 50 Index dropped by 1.46% to 1305.97 [1][7] - The overall market saw a decline in the majority of indices, with the exception of the blue-chip stocks represented by the Shanghai Composite Index [7][8] Industry Dynamics - The average operating rate and workload of the national engineering machinery sector increased month-on-month in November, with an average operating rate of 46.95%, up 1.39 percentage points, and workload increasing by 10.03% [25][26] - The air conditioning industry is expected to see a 32.0% year-on-year increase in domestic production in January 2026, following a decline in retail sales in November [28][29] - The sulfuric acid industry is implementing measures to stabilize supply and prices to ensure agricultural input stability, particularly for fertilizer production [31][33] - The total grain production for 2025 is projected to be 14,297.5 billion jin, a 1.2% increase from the previous year, with improvements in yield per mu for corn and rice [34][35] Company Updates - Yanjinpuzi (002847.SZ) announced a restricted stock incentive plan for 2025, proposing to grant 3 million shares at a price of 35.18 yuan per share, with performance targets set for 2026-2028 [36][37] - Shuhua Sports (605299.SH) plans to invest up to 500 million yuan in a health industry park project to enhance its competitive edge in the smart fitness sector [39][40] - Haitian Flavoring (603288.SH) disclosed a special dividend plan for 2025, proposing a cash dividend of 3.0 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 1.754 billion yuan [41][42] - Qibin Group (601636.SH) is establishing a subsidiary in Shenzhen to enhance supply chain efficiency and management in the photovoltaic glass business [43]

今日，A股上涨的原因找到了，中金明日复牌！准备向4000点进攻。任何时候，大家要明白市场的主力是谁，20年前是庄家，过去10年是外资，未来是汇 金…… 午后，汇金大幅抄底宽基ETF，肯定是他们，除了他们还有谁能够让大盘指数直线拉升，沪深300指数基金，A500指数基金都是分时大幅放量。 5000多家个股，大家怎么知道你买的是上涨的。大家为什么不说没跑赢指数的个股呢？为什么就觉得你买的是涨得多的那些，而不是跌停板，ST，退市 呢？大家的策略不同，没什么好聊的。 我不相信自己的水平，但是我相信汇金啊！它们买什么，我就持有什么，自然我也会赚钱，是不是这个道理。自己不行，就寄生在能行的资金上面，汇金只 抄底ETF，2023年就明牌开始建仓沪深300，A500等指数…… 3、本轮牛市有利润是因为我们跟着汇金的节奏囤一堆宽基。 有什么怕？大盘指数跌了永远可以涨回来，大跌大买，小跌小买。盘后，终于有几个同频的粉丝让自己欣慰了，他们也买了创业板指数，今日的涨幅还不 错，今年的涨幅更不错。小凡就是做指数的玩家，不需要股民当粉丝。 大涨大卖，今日很多随缘单在自己睡觉的时候成交了，也不后悔，就算明天高开也不后悔，本来就是捡的便宜筹 ...

Core Viewpoint - A total of 9 companies have voluntarily delisted this year, with 5 due to absorption mergers and 4 through privatization methods such as tender offers, indicating a trend towards more companies opting for voluntary delisting as regulatory channels for delisting diversify [1][2] Group 1: Company Delisting Trends - 9 companies have voluntarily delisted this year, with 5 involved in absorption mergers and 4 through privatization [1] - Companies that have announced or completed voluntary delisting include Yulong Co., Ltd., AVIC Capital, Tianmao Co., Ltd., Hangzhou Steam Turbine B, Dongxing Securities, and others [1] - The delisting of companies like Hangzhou Steam Turbine B and Dongxing Securities is attributed to absorption mergers, while Yulong Co., Ltd. and others have chosen voluntary delisting due to poor performance or financial difficulties [1] Group 2: Reasons for Delisting - Yulong Co., Ltd. faced severe operational stagnation and cash flow issues, leading to a lack of self-sustaining capability [2] - AVIC Capital, the first financial holding company listed in A-shares, cited significant operational uncertainties that could have major impacts [2] - Industry insiders suggest that voluntary delisting is a strategic choice for controlling shareholders to mitigate greater risks, allowing for better planning and reduced compliance costs [2]

发布换股吸收合并预案后的第二天，中金公司、东兴证券、信达证券复牌后大涨并领涨行业个股，展现 出市场对于头部券商合并的向好预期。截至12月18日10时30分，3只个股仍维持涨超5%的态势。从股价 看，中金公司为36.76元/股，东兴证券和信达证券分别为14.44元/股和18.7元/股。在业内人士看来，券 商合并大幕拉开只是开始，凭借各方资源的有机结合，合并后公司的财务结构韧性有望增强。从行业角 度看，近年来头部券商并购潮兴起、行业洗牌加快，后续中大型券商进行战略重组可行性、必要性提 升。 从12月17日披露的预案来看，本次交易定价以各方董事会决议公告日前20个交易日均价作为基准价，吸 收合并方中金公司作为存续主体，换股价为36.91元/股，被吸收合并方东兴证券的换股价为16.14元/ 股，信达证券的换股价为19.15元/股。在业内人士看来，该交易方案充分体现了两家公司的资产价值， 并有利于平衡各方股东利益。 此外，为保护中小投资者权益，预案内容显示，中金公司A股及H股异议股东可行使收购请求权，东兴 证券与信达证券的异议股东享有现金选择权。此外，包括中央汇金、中国东方、中国信达在内的主要股 东已出具长期承诺，将其 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant recovery in government fund expenditures, indicating a potential boost to the macroeconomic environment [3][4] - The banking sector is experiencing a trend of deposit migration from smaller banks to larger ones, reflecting changing consumer preferences and market conditions [23][24] - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for the non-bank financial sector, particularly with the merger of China International Capital Corporation (CICC) and other securities firms, which is expected to enhance their competitive position [30][31] Macroeconomic Overview - In November, the national general public budget revenue was 1.4026 trillion yuan, while expenditures reached 2.2713 trillion yuan, indicating a fiscal deficit [3] - Tax revenue growth is slowing, with a year-on-year increase of only 2.8% in November, down from 8.6% previously, suggesting economic pressures [4] - Government fund income decreased by 15.8% year-on-year, but expenditures surged by 41% to 1.1232 trillion yuan, indicating a strategic push to stimulate the economy [4][5] Banking Sector Analysis - The report notes a decline in non-bank deposits by 83.3 billion yuan in November, suggesting a shift in consumer behavior towards larger banks [23] - Smaller banks saw a year-on-year decrease in savings deposits, while larger banks experienced an increase, indicating a trend of deposit consolidation [24] - The report anticipates that the credit demand will continue to slow, particularly in consumer lending, as banks adjust to market conditions [24][27] Non-Bank Financial Sector Insights - The merger of CICC with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities is expected to significantly enhance CICC's net assets and market position [30][31] - The report forecasts a robust growth in CICC's net profit, projecting increases of 83%, 35%, and 20% for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [31] - The merger is anticipated to improve capital efficiency and expand CICC's wealth management and investment banking capabilities [33] Industry Trends - The report identifies a recovery in the offline IPO market, with significant improvements in new share issuance and investor returns [14] - The "merger six guidelines" have led to a notable increase in merger and acquisition activities, particularly in the technology sector [15] - The report highlights a growing interest in sectors such as textiles, automotive, and steel, as indicated by increased institutional research activity [8][9]

Market Overview - The S&P 500 index has experienced four consecutive declines, primarily driven by large technology stocks[1] - Major U.S. indices collectively fell, with the Nasdaq down nearly 2%[9] - The S&P 500 closed at 6,800, reflecting a decline of 1.16% for the day and a year-to-date increase of 14.28%[3] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market showed a significant recovery in the afternoon, with major indices rebounding after two consecutive days of decline[9] - Large technology stocks such as Meituan and Kuaishou rose nearly 2%, while Tencent and Alibaba increased over 1%[9] - The financial sector saw a collective rise, with China Life Insurance up over 4% and CITIC Securities up over 3%[9] Sector Highlights - Precious metals stocks strengthened, with China Silver Group rising over 7% due to a weaker dollar and expectations of interest rate cuts, pushing silver prices above $66 per ounce[9] - The aviation sector saw gains, with China Southern Airlines up over 5% as ticket bookings surged ahead of the New Year holiday[9] - The lithium battery sector also rose, driven by a significant increase in lithium carbonate futures prices, with Tianqi Lithium up 5.83%[9] Economic Indicators - Japan's November exports grew by 6.1% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations, with a trade surplus of 322.2 billion yen[13] - The U.S. Treasury yields have shown fluctuations, impacting market sentiment and investment strategies[18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Views - The report highlights that the merger through a share swap with Dongxing and China Cinda is expected to significantly enhance the capital strength of the company, moving its ranking from 9th to 4th in terms of net assets [3] - The merger does not involve any financing and is anticipated to improve the company's ability to leverage its capital intermediary business, with a projected net profit of 8.393 billion yuan for 2025 [3][4] - The report suggests that the stock price of the company is likely to increase by an average of 6% on the first day of trading post-merger, indicating a favorable investment opportunity in the brokerage sector [3] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 22,990 million yuan - 2024: 21,333 million yuan - 2025: 30,381 million yuan (growth rate of 42.4%) - 2026: 32,752 million yuan (growth rate of 7.8%) - 2027: 35,189 million yuan (growth rate of 7.4%) [4] - Projected net profit figures are: - 2023: 6,156 million yuan - 2024: 5,694 million yuan - 2025: 8,393 million yuan (growth rate of 47.4%) - 2026: 8,725 million yuan (growth rate of 4.0%) - 2027: 9,356 million yuan (growth rate of 7.2%) [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be: - 2023: 1.28 yuan - 2024: 1.18 yuan - 2025: 1.74 yuan - 2026: 1.81 yuan - 2027: 1.94 yuan [4] Share Swap Details - The share swap prices are set at a premium of 26% based on the average prices of the last 20 trading days before suspension, with specific prices for each entity: - CICC: 36.91 yuan/share - Dongxing: 16.14 yuan/share - Cinda: 19.15 yuan/share [2] - The swap ratio is defined as follows: - 1 share of Dongxing A shares can be exchanged for 0.4373 shares of CICC A shares - 1 share of Cinda A shares can be exchanged for 0.5188 shares of CICC A shares [2]

（来源：中国金融信息中心） CFIC导读 ◆中金公司、东兴证券均涨停价开盘，信达证券高开6.8%。 原标题："券商航母"合并预案出炉 中金、东兴涨停价开盘 中金公司、东兴证券均涨停价开盘，信达证券高开6.8%。 消息面上，备受市场瞩目的中金公司吸收合并东兴证券、信达证券，迎来重要进展。 12月17日，中金公司与东兴证券、信达证券同步披露重大资产重组预案，每股东兴证券、信达证券能换 取中金公司股票的比例，分别确定为1:0.4373、1:0.5188。此外，三家公司股票于12月18日复牌。 根据披露的预案，本次交易定价以各方董事会决议公告日前20个交易日均价作为基准价格，吸收合并方 中金公司作为存续主体，换股价格为36.91元／股，被吸收合并方东兴证券换股价格为16.14元／股，信 达证券换股价格为19.15元／股。该交易方案充分体现了两家公司资产价值，并有利于平衡各方股东利 益。 来源：市场资讯 微信编辑：胡闻哲 "国社之镜·世纪光影"新华社新闻摄影展 "国社之镜、世纪光影"新华社新闻摄影展由中国金融信息中心、新华社上海分社、中国图片社、上海证 券报、中经社上海总部、新华投控联合承办，欢迎社会各界组团参观。 展 ...

Core Viewpoint - The merger of China International Capital Corporation (CICC), Dongxing Securities, and Cinda Securities marks a significant restructuring in the Chinese securities industry, aiming to create a "super investment bank" with enhanced capital strength and comprehensive financial services capabilities [1][2]. Summary by Sections Merger Details - The merger will be executed through a share swap, with CICC as the surviving entity, absorbing all assets, liabilities, and personnel from Dongxing and Cinda Securities [1]. - Following the merger, CICC's total assets are expected to exceed 1 trillion RMB, significantly enhancing its capital strength and positioning it among the top players in the industry [1][4]. Strategic Intent - This merger is a strategic move to align with national policies aimed at cultivating top-tier investment banks and enhancing the financial supply-side reform [2]. - The merger aims to transform scale advantages into comprehensive financial service capabilities, enhancing resilience and international competitiveness [2]. Share Exchange Mechanism - The share exchange prices are set at 36.91 RMB for CICC, 16.14 RMB for Dongxing, and 19.15 RMB for Cinda, reflecting a premium over previous closing prices [2][4]. - Approximately 3.096 billion new shares of CICC will be issued to complete the exchange [3]. Shareholder Protection Mechanisms - The merger includes multiple layers of shareholder protection, such as dissenting shareholder rights and lock-up periods for major shareholders [4]. - The exchange ratios for Dongxing and Cinda shareholders reflect premiums of approximately 23% and 7.6%, respectively, indicating consideration for minority shareholders [4]. Industry Impact - The merger is expected to create a leading "super" securities group, fundamentally reshaping the competitive landscape of the Chinese securities industry [5][7]. - CICC's financial and operational metrics will see a historic leap, setting new benchmarks for industry leaders [5]. Financial Projections - Post-merger, CICC's annualized revenue is projected to exceed 50 billion RMB, with net profits reaching around 15 billion RMB, positioning it among the top three in the industry [5]. - The merger will expand CICC's network to over 400 branches, enhancing its reach to more than 4 million retail clients [5]. Synergy and Operational Efficiency - The merger is expected to enhance capital efficiency and regional coverage, leveraging the strengths of each entity to create a comprehensive service platform [6][10]. - The integration aims to provide a full lifecycle of financial services, from startup to restructuring, enhancing client engagement and operational efficiency [10]. Strategic Vision - The merger aligns with national financial strategies, aiming to reduce the number of institutions while improving quality and service efficiency [12]. - The combined entity will focus on creating a unique ecosystem that integrates investment banking, asset management, and special asset operations [12]. Market Outlook - Analysts maintain a "buy" rating for CICC's A/H shares, citing the merger's potential to strengthen capital and enhance competitive positioning [13]. - The success of the merger will depend on the realization of synergies and the ability to transform from a physical merger to a value-creating entity [13].