记者丨张嘉钰 编辑丨黎雨桐 2月4日，美股开盘涨跌不一，截至23:43，道指涨0.66%，标普500指数跌0.1%，纳指跌0.71%盘中一度跳水至1%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯丁 平均 | 49567.49 | 326.50 | 0.66% | | 纳斯达克指数 | 23090.17 | -165.02 | -0.71% | | 标普500 | 6911.02 | -6.79 | -0.10% | | 纳斯达克100 | 25094.49 | -244.13 | -0.96% | | 万得美国科技七巨头指数 | 64950.28 | -311.81 | -0.48% | | 万得中概科技龙头指数 | 4082.22 | -121.14 | -2.88% | | 纳斯达克中国金龙指数 | 7508.31 | -101.70 | -1.34% | | 万得中概股100 | 2736.93 | -58.58 | -2.10% | | 万得美国科技指数(CNY) | 10802.17 | -124.15 | -1.14% | | 排 ...

2月4日，美股三大指数开盘涨跌不一，道指涨0.43%，标普500指数涨0.07%，纳指跌0.17%。 热门中概股集体走低，金山云跌超5%，携程集团、网易、哔哩哔哩跌超4%，百度集团、富途控股跌超 3%。 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ▲ | 现价 | | --- | --- | --- | | 我们之 | -5.45% | 12.414 | | 携程集团 | -4.84% | 57.550 | | 网易 | -4.20% | 122.970 | | 旋面临加 | -4.27% | 30.480 | | 百度集团 | -3.60% | 139.640 | | 富途控股 | -3.52% | 154.155 | | 小鹏汽车 | -2.10% | 16.800 | | 腾讯音乐 | -1.98% | 16.075 | | 小马智行 | -1.61% | 13.430 | | 搜狐 | -1.46% | 16.190 | | 京东集团 | -1.41% | 27.645 | | 蔚来 | -1.25% | 4.493 | | 阿里巴巴 | -1.12% | 161.820 | | 文远知行 | -0.79% | 7.520 ...

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.43% to 49,454.63, while the Nasdaq Index decreased by 0.17% to 23,215.58, and the S&P 500 rose slightly by 0.07% to 6,922.99 [1] - The Nasdaq 100 saw a decline of 0.40% to 25,238.22 [1] Major Technology Stocks - AMD experienced a significant drop of 11.00% [2] - SanDisk fell by 6.89% [2] - Oracle decreased by 3.72% [2] - Facebook (Meta Platforms) declined by 1.46% [2] - Broadcom saw a decrease of 1.16% [2] - NVIDIA and Amazon also experienced minor declines of 0.67% and 0.33% respectively [2] Chinese Concept Stocks - Major Chinese concept stocks collectively declined, with Kingsoft Cloud dropping over 5% [3] - Ctrip Group, NetEase, and Bilibili each fell by over 4% [3] - Baidu Group and Futu Holdings decreased by over 3% [3] Detailed Performance of Chinese Stocks - Kingsoft Cloud fell by 5.45% to 12.414 [4] - Ctrip Group decreased by 4.84% to 57.550 [4] - NetEase dropped by 4.20% to 122.970 [4] - Baidu Group declined by 3.60% to 139.640 [4] - Futu Holdings decreased by 3.52% to 154.155 [4] - Other notable declines include XPeng Motors (-2.10%), Tencent Music (-1.98%), and JD Group (-1.41%) [4]

Market Overview - The three major indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.345%, the Nasdaq down 1.43%, and the S&P 500 down 0.84% [1] Banking Sector - Bank stocks experienced a broad rally, with notable increases including US Bancorp up 2.32%, Zions Bank up 2.25%, JPMorgan Chase up 2.18%, and Union Bank up 2.11%. Other banks like Alliance West Bank and Citigroup also saw gains above 1% [3] - However, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs faced declines, contrasting with the overall positive trend in the banking sector [3] Technology Sector - The technology sector continued to show weakness, with Qualcomm down 3.56%, Netflix down 3.41%, Nvidia down 2.84%, Microsoft down 2.87%, and META down 2.08%. Google and Amazon also experienced declines exceeding 1% [3] - Conversely, Tesla and Nvidia managed to post slight gains despite the overall sector downturn [3] Chinese Concept Stocks - Chinese concept stocks opened lower and continued to decline, with a mid-session drop of 2.4% and a closing decrease of 0.94%. Notable declines included Bilibili down 4.21%, Tencent Holdings down 3.33%, Baidu down 2.5%, and Alibaba down 2.81%. Beike fell by 2.17% [3] - Xpeng Motors, however, saw a significant increase of 4.06%, while Li Auto dropped by 2.9% [3] Gold Market - COMEX gold prices opened high and reversed strongly, closing up 6.19% at $4970.5 per ounce. The lowest price during the session was $4690.2, while the highest reached $5018.1 per ounce [3]

Core Viewpoint - The rumors regarding a 32% tax rate on the internet industry are unfounded and lack a basis in the current tax system, which does not allow for such arbitrary adjustments [3][8]. Group 1: Tax Rumors and Market Impact - Since February 2, rumors about increased taxes in the internet sector have caused significant volatility in the tech sector, despite the illogical nature of these claims [1]. - Previous instances of tax rumors have led to market downturns, such as the 2021 speculation about the cancellation of a 10% preferential tax rate for internet companies [5][6]. Group 2: Tax Rate Structure - The current VAT rates in China are 6%, 9%, and 13%, with no provision for a 32% rate, which is incompatible with the existing tax framework [3][4]. - The nature of the internet gaming industry, characterized by high human resource costs and low deductibility of input taxes, justifies a lower VAT rate [3][4]. Group 3: Policy Stability and Economic Growth - The stability of tax laws is crucial for economic foundations, and any changes to tax rates require extensive negotiation and cannot be made arbitrarily [8]. - The overarching goal of China's macroeconomic policy is to maintain growth, which necessitates consistent policies that support the digital economy and technology sectors [8][11]. Group 4: Role of Technology in Economic Development - The internet and gaming sectors are increasingly recognized as vital components of technological advancement, contributing to various fields, including military training and AI development [9][11]. - Continuous investment in AI and other cutting-edge technologies by internet companies indicates that significant policy adjustments are unlikely to occur suddenly [11].

盘面上，大型科技股多数走低，腾讯控股跌近4%，哔哩哔哩、网易跌超3%，百度集团跌近3%，小米集团、美团跌超1%；苹果概念股走弱，丘钛科技、 富智康集团、高伟电子跌超4%，瑞声科技跌超3%，舜宇光学科技跌超1%；半导体股多数下跌，上海复旦跌超5%，华虹半导体跌超4%，中芯国际跌超 2%；应用软件股下挫，金蝶国际跌超12%。 【导读】港股涨跌不一，应用软件股大跌！香港财政司司长陈茂波最新发声 2月4日，港股震荡，三大指数走势分化。 截至收盘，恒生指数涨0.05%，报26847.32点；恒生科技指数跌1.84%，报5366.44点；恒生国企指数跌0.05%，报9048.38点。 锂电池股齐涨，宁德时代（300750）涨超4%；煤炭股上扬，兖矿能源（600188）涨超10%，中煤能源（601898）涨超8%，中国神华（601088）、首钢资 源涨超5%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 腾讯控股 | 558.000 | -3.96% | | 0700.HK | | | | 阿里巴巴-W | 159.500 | -0.93% | | 9988.HK | | | | 小米集 ...

2月4日，时值立春，万物萌新。由中央网信办网络社会工作局指导，光明网与北京市委网信办联合主办 的2026年"网络中国节"新春创享季启动仪式在京举行。 上篇"马"上出圈聚焦文化创新与青年创造。青年京剧演员果菁（@果小菁）演绎的《戏内戏外》，将传 统戏曲与流行音乐相结合，展现出戏曲艺术的时尚感染力；演员刘纪铭、万毅夫（@红鲤鱼与绿鲤鱼） 的原创相声《马上旅行家》，巧谈文旅"热梗"，引得台下笑声连连；随后，青年音乐人吴铭书（@小书 子）、知识博主国晓飞（@国翠儿）等接连登台，在旋律的起承转合中，中华优秀传统文化焕发新韵， 浸润青年网民的心田。 中篇"马"上团圆深入挖掘春节蕴含的家国情怀与情感共鸣。舞蹈诗剧《团圆·万象》以"圆"为核，通过 灵动舞姿与环形投影，艺术化呈现从家庭小团圆到人类命运共同体的升华；北京曲艺家协会主席、中国 广播艺术团一级演员李伟建带来的情景讲述《春节的故事》，以饱含温度的语调娓娓道来，从历史的纵 深挖掘春节承载的民族情感；与之呼应，现场连线《跨越山海的祝福》则将镜头扫过全球华人群体，以 多元视野呈现了春节文化的强大向心力。 随后，由冯佳晨（@皮卡晨）、柯鲁瀚等中外博主联袂出演的情景剧《预制年味 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend, resistance, and support levels of various futures contracts on February 4, 2026, and the trend of the main continuous contracts in January 2026. It is expected that stock index futures will fluctuate and consolidate, while gold, silver, tin, lithium carbonate, and glass futures will fluctuate strongly, and copper, aluminum, and other futures will fluctuate strongly [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Contents 1. Macro - Information and Trading Tips - The first central document of the 14th Five - Year Plan was released on February 3, aiming to promote rural revitalization and modernize agriculture [5]. - The central bank will conduct an 800 - billion - yuan 3 - month repurchase operation on February 4, with an additional 100 billion yuan, and the net investment in Treasury bond trading in the open market in January was 100 billion yuan [5]. - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the development of strategic emerging and future industries and the transformation of traditional industries [5]. - 30 provinces have set their GDP growth targets for 2026, with some major economic provinces aiming for over 5%. Shanghai aims for about 5% growth and will develop key industries [6]. - In January, the sales volume of 6 types of household appliances and 4 types of digital and smart products exceeded 15 million units, with sales approaching 59 billion yuan, and offline sales increased by about 20% [6]. - Talks between the US and Iran are still scheduled, and the US ended a partial government shutdown [6][7]. - A Fed official called for a rate cut of over 100 basis points this year, while another emphasized caution on inflation. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 25 basis points [7]. - NASA postponed the "Artemis 2" mission due to a hydrogen leak [7]. 2. Commodity Futures - Related Information - Most domestic commodity futures closed down during the day, with precious metals showing mixed trends. However, they rebounded at night. International precious metals, oil, and most London base metals closed up [8][9][10]. - Multiple exchanges adjusted margin ratios and price limits for various futures contracts [8][9]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Stock Index Futures - On February 3, major stock index futures contracts showed a trend of opening higher, fluctuating, and rising. The A - share market also rose, and new A - share accounts in January reached a 15 - month high. It is expected that in February, the main continuous contracts will fluctuate widely, and on February 4, they will fluctuate and consolidate [11][12][13][14][16]. Gold Futures - On February 3, the gold futures main contract AU2604 opened higher, fluctuated, and rose. It is expected to fluctuate widely in February and strongly on February 4 [34][35]. Silver Futures - On February 3, the silver futures main contract AG2604 opened lower, fluctuated, and declined. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in February and strongly on February 4 [38]. Copper Futures - On February 3, the copper futures main contract CU2603 opened higher, fluctuated, and rose. It is expected to have a strongly - wide fluctuation in February and a strong fluctuation on February 4 [43][44]. Aluminum Futures - On February 3, the aluminum futures main contract AL2603 opened higher, fluctuated, and rose. It is expected to fluctuate widely in February and strongly on February 4 [47]. Nickel Futures - On February 3, the nickel futures main contract NI2603 opened higher, fluctuated, and rose. It is expected to fluctuate widely in February and strongly on February 4 [52][53]. Tin Futures - On February 3, the tin futures main contract SN2603 opened slightly higher, fluctuated, and declined. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in February and strongly on February 4 [57]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - On February 3, the lithium carbonate futures main contract LC2605 opened higher, fluctuated, and rose. It is expected to fluctuate widely in February and strongly on February 4 [62][63]. Coking Coal Futures - On February 3, the coking coal futures main contract JM2605 opened slightly higher, fluctuated, and rose. It is expected to have a strongly - wide fluctuation in February and a strong fluctuation on February 4 [67]. Glass Futures - On February 3, the glass futures main contract FG605 opened slightly higher, fluctuated, and rose. It is expected to have a strongly - wide fluctuation in February and a strong fluctuation on February 4 [73][74].

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index slightly up by 0.05% to close at 26,847.32 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.84% to 5,366.44 points [1][2]. Company Focus - Tencent Holdings (HK00700) experienced a nearly 4% decline, contributing to the drop in the Hang Seng Tech Index [3]. Sector Movements - Coal stocks saw significant gains, with Feishang Anthracite (HK01738) rising by 20%, Huili Resources (HK01303) up over 17%, and Yancoal Australia (HK03668) and Yanzhou Coal Mining (HK01171) both increasing by over 10% [5]. - The solar energy sector also saw a rise, with Xinyi Glass (HK00868) increasing by over 5% [7]. Market Insights - GF Securities noted that the daily consumption of thermal coal remains at a high level, with expectations for stable coal prices as supply tightens ahead of the Spring Festival [7]. - Goldman Sachs projected that the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index will rise by 20% and 12% respectively by 2026, maintaining an "overweight" recommendation for A-shares and H-shares [11]. Investment Recommendations - Galaxy Securities suggested focusing on the technology sector as a long-term investment theme, driven by multiple favorable factors including price increases in the supply chain and accelerated AI applications [12].

2月4日，港股收盘，恒生指数涨0.05%，恒生科技指数跌1.84%。煤炭股涨幅居前，兖矿能源涨超10%， 中国神华涨超5%。芯片股走低，上海复旦跌超5%，华虹半导体跌近5%，中芯国际跌超2%。科网股低 迷，腾讯控股跌近4%，哔哩哔哩跌超3%，百度集团跌近3%。 ...