证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 7 月 17 日 中银晨会聚焦-20250717 ■重点关注 【宏观经济】6 月和二季度经济数据点评*张晓娇 朱启兵。上半年实际 GDP 累计同比增长 5.3%，下半年稳增长仍需加力提效。 | 市场指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 3503.78 | (0.03) | | 深证成指 | 10720.81 | (0.22) | | 沪深 300 | 4007.20 | (0.30) | | 中小 100 | 6654.27 | (0.36) | 行业表现（申万一级） | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 社会服务 | 1.13 | 钢铁 | (1.28) | | 汽车 | 1.07 | 银行 | (0.74) | | 医药生物 | 0.95 | 有色金属 | (0.45) | | 轻工制造 | 0.94 | 非银金融 | (0.43) | | 农林牧渔 | 0.85 | 建筑装饰 | (0.42) | 资料来源：万得 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [4]. Core Insights - In June 2025, the total retail sales in China reached 4.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, which is below market expectations of 5.6% [4]. - The online retail sales growth slowed down due to the preemptive timing of the 618 shopping festival, while offline retail continues to show stable growth [4]. - The service consumption sector is experiencing rapid growth, supported by government policies, although restaurant revenue growth has declined [4]. - The "trade-in" policy continues to show effectiveness, with basic necessities demonstrating resilience, while gold and silver sales growth has slowed down due to seasonal factors [4]. - The report anticipates that the upcoming summer tourism season and the third round of trade-in subsidies will further stimulate domestic consumption [4]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - June retail sales grew by 4.8% year-on-year, with a total of 4.2 trillion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - Excluding automobiles, retail sales also grew by 4.8%, with a month-on-month decline of 2.2 percentage points [4]. Online and Offline Consumption - Online retail sales for the first half of 2025 increased by 8.5%, outpacing the overall retail growth by 3.5 percentage points [4]. - The online penetration rate remained stable at 26.8% in June, unchanged from the previous year [4]. Service Consumption - The service sector's production index rose by 6.0% year-on-year in June, with retail sales in the service sector growing by 5.3% [4]. - Restaurant revenue in June was 470.8 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of only 0.9% due to seasonal factors [4]. Policy Impact - The government has introduced measures to enhance consumer capacity and stimulate spending, with urban retail sales reaching 3.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [4]. - The trade-in policy has led to significant sales in consumer electronics, with related sales exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan by late June [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on e-commerce and instant retail sectors, particularly companies like Alibaba, JD.com, and Meituan, as well as quality jewelry brands benefiting from gold demand recovery [4]. - It also highlights opportunities in the travel industry and retail sectors that enhance in-store experiences [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the decline of 4A scenic spots in China, with many facing bankruptcy or becoming abandoned, contrasting this with the recent popularity of local events like "Su Chao" which have drawn significant tourist interest [1][4][5]. Group 1: Decline of 4A Scenic Spots - A large 4A scenic area in Hangzhou, covering over 6,700 acres, is being demolished after failing to attract visitors, despite significant investment of over 20 billion yuan [2][3]. - Many 4A scenic spots are experiencing severe financial difficulties, with reports indicating that at least 7 4A and 3 5A scenic spots have declared bankruptcy in recent years [5][6]. - The overall trend shows that 4A scenic spots are becoming "zombie attractions," operating at a loss and lacking proper management, leading to a decline in visitor numbers and maintenance issues [6][7]. Group 2: Market Concentration and Revenue Crisis - The revenue distribution in the tourism market is heavily skewed, with over 300 5A scenic spots accounting for half of the total income of more than 30,000 scenic spots, indicating a growing concentration of market power [7][14]. - The total income of A-level scenic spots has decreased significantly from 5,065.72 billion yuan in 2019 to 4,814.2 billion yuan, despite an increase in the number of scenic spots [14]. Group 3: Reasons for Decline - Many 4A scenic spots lack sufficient influence and marketing capabilities compared to more prestigious 5A spots, leading to their inability to attract visitors [9][10]. - The article suggests that the lack of creativity and interaction in the marketing strategies of 4A scenic spots contributes to their decline, as they fail to engage potential visitors effectively [10][11]. Group 4: Strategies for Survival - To survive, 4A and below scenic spots need to innovate and create unique experiences that resonate with visitors, such as collaborating with entertainment teams or developing distinctive themes [15][16]. - Establishing trust and offering genuine, affordable experiences are crucial for attracting and retaining visitors, as seen in successful examples like Wuzhen [17].

Group 1 - A large 4A scenic area in Hangzhou, covering over 6,700 acres, has been reported to be demolished, highlighting the increasing number of 4A scenic areas facing severe losses or closures [2][3] - The Lanli scenic area, once a popular destination, has seen a significant decline in visitors and has been unable to sustain operations, leading to its management team's withdrawal after two years [2][3] - The overall trend indicates that many 4A scenic areas are struggling, with some even declaring bankruptcy, as evidenced by the closure of several notable scenic spots across the country [6][7][9] Group 2 - The tourism market is increasingly dominated by a few top-tier 5A scenic areas, which account for a significant portion of the total revenue, while 4A and below scenic areas are facing a collective decline [10][19] - Data shows that the number of A-level scenic areas has increased, but their revenue has decreased significantly, indicating a crisis in earnings for 4A and below scenic areas [19][20] - The disparity in performance between 5A and 4A scenic areas is exacerbated by the lack of effective marketing and engagement strategies among the latter, leading to their inability to attract and retain visitors [11][12][18] Group 3 - The decline of 4A scenic areas can be attributed to insufficient influence and promotional efforts compared to more prestigious 5A areas, resulting in a lack of long-term viability [11][12] - Successful examples of revitalization in the tourism sector, such as the "Su Chao" phenomenon, demonstrate the importance of creative marketing and community engagement in attracting visitors [13][14][16] - Strategies for improving the performance of 4A scenic areas include enhancing visitor experiences through unique offerings and establishing trust with tourists through genuine and affordable services [20][23]

Group 1 - The report by MoonFox focuses on the development trends in the tourism industry for 2025, highlighting key areas such as marketing innovation, technology application, service optimization, and platform collaboration [2][3][6]. - "Recommendation and grass planting" has emerged as a significant marketing strategy, enhancing the precision of targeting potential customers through private traffic operations, while precision marketing improves conversion efficiency [2][3]. - The optimization of online ticket booking services is emphasized, providing travelers with more convenient travel planning support and simplifying the preparation process before trips [2][3]. Group 2 - Technological empowerment is a core trend, with the development of smart tourism driving the digital transformation of travel destinations and enhancing the overall visitor experience [3][6]. - The application of AI travel assistants offers intelligent support in itinerary planning and information inquiries, becoming an essential tool during the travel process [3][6]. - The report covers a timeline from July 2024 to May 2025, reflecting changes in tourism-related data during this period, providing a framework for analyzing industry dynamics [3][6]. Group 3 - Platforms like Xiaohongshu and Meituan are mentioned as playing crucial roles in the dissemination of tourism information and service bookings, indicating their importance in the tourism ecosystem [3][6]. - The report indicates that the tourism industry is experiencing a recovery phase, with domestic travel numbers reaching 5.615 billion and total spending at 5.75 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a significant increase [13][29]. - The first quarter of 2025 shows a year-on-year growth of 26.40% in travel numbers and 18.6% in spending, indicating a sustained recovery and growth in the tourism sector [13][29]. Group 4 - The report highlights the diversification of tourism demand and the upgrading of consumption, with a focus on emotional resonance and immersive experiences becoming more prevalent among consumers [10][31]. - The rise of cross-border travel opportunities is supported by policy changes and economic factors, with the outbound tourism market expected to reach 146 million trips in 2024, nearing pre-pandemic levels [29][30]. - The integration of culture and tourism is emphasized, with policies promoting the deep fusion of tourism with various sectors, enhancing the overall tourism experience [36][37].

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 7 月 11 日 | 7 月金股组合 | | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | | 002244.SZ | 滨江集团 | | 002352.SZ | 顺丰控股 | | 1519.HK | 极兔速递-W | | 002648.SZ | 卫星化学 | | 688019.SH | 安集科技 | | 688680.SH | 海优新材 | | 603011.SH | 合锻智能 | | 600054.SH | 黄山旅游 | | 300476.SZ | 胜宏科技 | | 688519.SH | 南亚新材 | 中银晨会聚焦-20250711 ■重点关注 【策略研究】策略点评*王君 徐亚。上证指数"站上"3500 点，主因金融行业 股价强势及"反内卷"政策效果预期。后续上证指数"更进一步"，需要"反内卷" 等增量政策落地效果展现。 【策略研究】策略点评报告*王君 徐沛东。2025 年 6 月 23 日—2025 年 7 月 6 日。本期中国 A 股上市公司并购重组市场整体活跃度减弱，呈现出"频率 高、主体多、领域广"的三大特点。 【社会服务】人力资源服务行业：具 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the strong growth potential of Tongcheng Travel, a leading OTA in China's lower-tier markets, benefiting from the tourism boom and support from major shareholders Tencent and Ctrip [3][6][8] - In 2024, Tongcheng Travel is projected to achieve revenue of CNY 17.34 billion, a year-on-year increase of 45.8%, and an adjusted net profit of CNY 2.79 billion, up 26.7% year-on-year [6] Company Overview - Tongcheng Travel is formed from the merger of Tongcheng and eLong, positioning itself as a top three player in the OTA industry, providing comprehensive travel services including transportation and accommodation bookings [6][8] - The company has a significant user base from non-first-tier cities, allowing it to capitalize on the growth in lower-tier markets [8] Industry Analysis - The online travel market is expected to exceed CNY 1 trillion in 2024, driven by high demand in the cultural tourism sector and low penetration rates in lower-tier cities [7] - The current market structure is characterized by a dominant player (Ctrip) and several strong competitors (Tongcheng, Meituan, Feizhu), with a focus on differentiated competition [7] - The bargaining power in the transportation sector is low due to high supplier concentration, while the accommodation sector has a higher bargaining power with lower supplier concentration [7]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that service consumption has become a core strategy for expanding domestic demand in 2025, with significant potential for growth in China compared to developed economies like the US and Japan [4][8][28] - The report highlights that China's per capita GDP has surpassed $10,000, marking a critical window for the rapid development of service consumption, particularly in entertainment and leisure sectors [4][30][32] - Key measures to boost service consumption include increasing residents' income, enhancing leisure time, and encouraging high-quality service supply [4][8][28] Group 2 - The tea beverage industry is identified as having substantial growth potential, with a rational increase in store numbers and a shift towards emotional value for consumers, particularly among younger demographics [9] - The restaurant industry is expected to see steady growth, with a focus on government subsidies and an increase in chain operations, indicating a structural differentiation between mass and high-end markets [10] - Meituan is noted for its strategic investments in ecosystem development, maintaining a competitive edge despite short-term market fluctuations [11] Group 3 - The education sector is experiencing a concentration of market share among high-quality institutions, driven by regulatory changes and a persistent demand for K12 education [12] - The human resources industry is undergoing structural recovery, with a focus on AI applications to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [13] - The tourism sector is benefiting from policy-driven support and accelerated industry consolidation, with a notable increase in domestic travel demand [14] Group 4 - The hotel industry is facing a slowdown in supply growth, with leading hotel groups adjusting their operations to maintain competitive performance [14] - The duty-free sector is showing signs of recovery, with a stabilization in average transaction values and a narrowing decline in sales, supported by product diversification and new channel expansions [15]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index in the next 6-12 months [52]. Core Insights - The social services sector has seen a 5.39% increase in the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.86 percentage points, ranking 12th among 31 sectors [1][12]. - The summer travel season has begun, with a slight decrease in air travel costs year-on-year, suggesting positive operational performance for travel-related companies during the peak season [1][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The social services sector's performance in the last two weeks (June 23 - July 4, 2025) shows a 5.39% increase, ranking 12th among 31 sectors [12]. - The sub-sectors within social services, including education (+11.42%) and professional services (+4.51%), all experienced growth [16]. 2. Industry Dynamics and Company News - The civil aviation sector is expected to handle 150 million passengers during the summer travel period, with a daily average of over 2.4 million passengers, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.4% [1][4]. - The "Su Super" sports events have significantly boosted local consumption, with hotel occupancy rates increasing by 20%-30% and related retail spending rising by 15%-25% [1][4]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Companies with strong growth potential in the travel chain and related industries include Huangshan Tourism, Lijiang Co., Songcheng Performance, and others [4]. - The recovery of business travel and increased market share for hotel brands such as Junting Hotel and Jinjiang Hotel are highlighted as key investment opportunities [4]. 4. Travel Data Tracking - Domestic travel has largely recovered post-pandemic, with international travel policies gradually easing, indicating a positive trend for the travel industry [39][40].

Core Insights - The report highlights the potential for an "anti-involution" trend in various industries, which is expected to improve the nominal economic growth rate that has been relatively weak [6][7] - The report indicates that the current economic environment is similar to the period from 2013 to 2015, suggesting that supply-side reforms could stabilize the Producer Price Index (PPI) in the second half of the year [7] Market Update - The report notes that as of July 8, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3473.13, reflecting a slight increase of 0.02%, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.70% to 10435.51 [3] - The CSI 300 Index also saw a decline of 0.43%, closing at 3965.17 [3] Industry Performance - The report provides a summary of industry performance, with the comprehensive index showing an increase of 2.57%. In contrast, the coal industry experienced a decline of 2.04% [4] - Other sectors such as public utilities and pharmaceuticals also saw slight declines of 1.87% and 0.97%, respectively [4] Key Focus Areas - The report emphasizes that the "anti-involution" actions taken by companies in sectors like solar energy and automotive are expected to create short-term positive factors for domestic demand [7] - It is noted that the current market conditions, characterized by ample liquidity, may lead to a rotation of funds among various sectors, particularly benefiting cyclical stocks [7] Economic Indicators - The report mentions that since October 2022, the PPI has been below zero for 32 consecutive months, indicating a prolonged period of weak pricing [6] - The report draws parallels to the supply-side reforms that began in 2016, which helped to lift the PPI out of a weak pricing environment [6]