环球市场动态 美 国 关 税 通 胀 见 顶 时 间 后 移 股 票 周三亚太股市个别发展，MSCI 不 排除将印度尼西亚降级至前沿市 场，拖累股市大跌 7.3%。港股高开 高走，A 股涨跌不一。奢侈品股受 压，欧股下跌。美联储一如预期维 持利率不变，美股个别发展，变动 不大。 外 汇 / 商 品 特朗普警告伊朗尽快达成核协议， 美伊局势紧张，周三纽约期油升至 四个月高位，国际金银价格续创新 高；贝森特关于美国绝没有入市干 预日元的表态也为美元带来支撑， 在美联储维持利率不变之后美元指 数触及日内高点。 固 定 收 益 美联储维持利率不变在 3.50%– 3.75%。美国国债持稳，收益率曲线 略微走平。声明称就业风险减弱， 并不急于进一步降息。日本 40 年 期国债拍卖结果较好推动市场企 稳。贝森特否认将干预日元汇率。 亚洲债市企稳，债券利差普遍收窄。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2026 年 1 月 29 日 ▪ 美联储 2026 年 1 月议息会议维持政策利率不变，符合市场预期。议息会议声明和鲍威尔发言均表示美国失业 率出 ...

Group 1 - The industrial non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing significant gains, with the CSI Industrial Non-Ferrous Metal Theme Index (H11059) rising by 3.28% as of January 29, 2026, and individual stocks like Shenghe Resources and Yunnan Copper seeing substantial increases [1] - The Industrial Non-Ferrous ETF Wan Jia (560860) has reached a new high in scale at 16.478 billion yuan and a total of 7.784 billion shares, with a recent net inflow of 696 million yuan over the past five days [1] - Tight copper supply and declining processing fees for copper concentrate, combined with strong long-term demand from AI and power grid construction, are expected to support copper prices, with the State Grid's fixed asset investment projected to reach 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, a 40% increase from the previous plan [1] Group 2 - The global base metals market is undergoing a structural reshaping due to strong demand from green industries such as electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and wind power, while supply is constrained by insufficient long-term investment and declining resource grades [2] - Despite the strong performance of the non-ferrous sector reflecting high growth over the past two years, core non-ferrous metal varieties have not seen significant valuation premiums, indicating potential for future price increases as domestic fundamentals may experience mild recovery [2] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Industrial Non-Ferrous Metal Theme Index (H11059) account for 56.18% of the index, including companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and China Aluminum [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant rebound in the rare earth permanent magnet sector, with the China Securities Rare Earth Industry Index rising by 1.50% as of January 29, 2026, driven by strong performances from key stocks such as Shenghe Resources and San Chuan Wisdom [1] - The rare earth sector has shown outstanding performance within the non-ferrous metal sub-industry, with the SW Small Metals and Metal New Materials indices increasing by 8.68% and 3.61% respectively in the third week of January 2026, indicating a notable contribution from rare earth-related stocks [1] - The report from Galaxy Securities emphasizes that geopolitical tensions are heightening global supply chain security concerns, which is enhancing the strategic position of key metals, including rare earths, and reinforcing the logic of resource self-sufficiency [1] Group 2 - The recovery in rare earth prices, supported by policy backing and pre-Spring Festival inventory demand, is contributing to a restoration of market sentiment, as noted by Guotai Junan Securities [1] - The investment value of rare earths continues to be highlighted in a context of tight supply and demand, with a fundamental basis supporting the upward price trend [1] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Rare Earth Industry Index accounted for 60.4% of the index, with key players including Northern Rare Earth and Greeenmech [2] Group 3 - Investors can access rare earth investment opportunities through the Jiashi Rare Earth ETF (516150), which closely tracks the China Securities Rare Earth Industry Index, providing a convenient tool for exposure to the domestic rare earth industry chain [2] - Additionally, the Jiashi Rare Earth ETF linked fund (011036) offers an alternative for off-market investors to capitalize on rare earth investment opportunities [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth trajectory of China's alumina industry, projecting a production increase and emphasizing the importance of market insights for investment decisions [1] Industry Overview - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's alumina production is expected to reach 8.01 million tons by December 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.7% [1] - The cumulative alumina production in China for 2025 is projected to be 92.446 million tons, with an overall growth of 8% [1] Companies Involved - Listed companies in the alumina sector include China Aluminum (601600), Tianshan Aluminum (002532), Nanshan Aluminum (600219), Yun Aluminum (000807), Shenhuo Co. (000933), Zhongfu Industrial (600595), Jiaozuo Wanfang (000612), Hongchuang Holdings (002379), Minfa Aluminum (002578), and Ningbo Fubang (600768) [1] Research and Consulting - Zhiyan Consulting is identified as a leading industry consulting firm in China, providing in-depth industry research reports, business plans, feasibility studies, and customized services [1] - The firm emphasizes its commitment to delivering comprehensive industry solutions to empower investment decisions through professional insights and quality services [1]

昨日沪指、深成指冲高回落，创业板指高开低走，盘中一度跌超1%。沪深两市成交额2.97万亿，较上 一个交易日放量704亿。盘面上，全市场超3600只个股下跌。从板块来看，资源股全天领涨，贵金属、 油气、电解铝方向轮番爆发，中国黄金4连板，湖南黄金3连板，中曼石油、晓程科技3天2板，四川黄金 10天6板，招金黄金8天5板，石化油服、准油股份涨停，中国铝业涨停创16年新高。分散染料概念集体 走高，浙江龙盛、闰土股份、亚邦股份涨停。存储芯片概念表现活跃，中微半导触及20CM涨停，气派 科技20CM涨停。下跌方面，医药医疗、光伏等板块跌幅居前。其中医药医疗概念走弱，百普赛斯、必 贝特跌超10%。截至收盘，沪指涨0.27%，深成指涨0.09%，创业板指跌0.57%。 历史上春季行情平均持续天数约70天，期间上证指数涨幅中位数约13.7%，本轮春季行情从2025年12月 17日开始，目前仅一个月，考虑到今年春节时间较晚叠加当前慢牛的环境，春季行情有望持续更长时 间。结合中观景气、盈利能力、筹码分布、估值、交易、周期阶段和赛道价值等多个维度，本期推荐关 注：电子(半导体)、传媒(广告营销、游戏、影视)、机械(自动化设备、工程 ...

连续上涨后，有色板块今日震荡调整后拉升，资金逢低布局，有色ETF鹏华(159880)盘中净申购2150万 份，冲刺连续6天净流入。 截至2026年1月29日 10:45，国证有色金属行业指数(399395)下成分股方面涨跌互现，湖南黄金领涨 10.01%，西部黄金上涨9.49%，白银有色上涨7.46%；厦门钨业领跌。有色ETF鹏华(159880)最新报价 2.57元。 有色ETF鹏华紧密跟踪国证有色金属行业指数，国证有色金属行业指数参照国证行业分类标准，选取归 属于有色金属行业的规模和流动性突出的50只证券作为样本，反映了沪深北交易所有色金属行业上市公 司的整体收益表现，向市场提供细分行业的指数化投资标的。 中信建投证券指出，区域局势紧张，驱动避险资金及央行对黄金的配置继续，强化贵金属牛市格局。特 朗普通过非常规手段获得石油、关键矿产等战略资源的做法，威胁着全球资源的供应安全，驱使各国及 各生产环节抬升合意库存以应对潜在的供应中断风险，金属资源的战略地位得以提升，助力商品价格和 权益端估值进一步走高。 数据显示，截至2025年12月31日，国证有色金属行业指数(399395)前十大权重股分别为紫金矿业、洛阳 ...

电解铝的选择 20260128 摘要 电解铝价格受多重因素驱动上涨，包括市场资金涌入、传统产业空头保 值力量受限以及其他品种市场资金的转移，电解铝成为资金阻力最小的 方向。 电解铝市场基本面健康，供应增速放缓，供需关系维持平衡，下游需求 分散且具有韧性，能够对冲供应压力，且电解铝生产企业利润可观。 电解铝价格突破 25,000 元/吨后，相关公司估值有望修复至 10 倍 PE 水 平，具有产量增量的公司如创新实业、华通线缆、南山铝业和百通能源， 以及高股息率公司如中国宏桥、中福实业具备投资价值。 电解铝价格节点通常以整数位为重要关口，突破 25,000 元/吨后，可能 进一步上涨至 28,000 元甚至 3 万元，下游需求虽疲软，但预计新年开 工后将出现集中采购。 铝价受益于轻量化趋势，新能源车、光伏等新兴产业需求增长潜力巨大， 叠加供应端电力约束，共同推动铝价上涨，传统消费框架下消费增速可 能被低估。 神火股份在电解铝价格达到 25,000 元/吨且氧化铝价格为 2,600 元/吨 的情况下，利润接近百亿元，氧化铝价格预计在 2,600 元左右触底。 市场到顶信号可通过弱势板块补涨、同板块内弱势品种补涨及特 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index has shown a slight increase, with notable performance from constituent stocks such as JiBit, JingJin Equipment, and others, indicating a positive trend in free cash flow among listed companies [1] Group 1: Free Cash Flow ETF Performance - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) has decreased by 0.67%, with the latest price at 1.34 yuan [1] - The ETF has seen a trading volume of 3.19 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 2.61% [1] - Over the past week, the ETF has averaged a daily trading volume of 7.21 billion yuan [1] - The ETF has experienced continuous net inflows over the past 9 days, totaling 1.933 billion yuan [1] - The latest share count for the ETF is 9.111 billion, with a total asset size reaching 12.199 billion yuan, marking a record high since its inception [1] - The ETF's net value has increased by 26.18% over the past 6 months [1] - Historical performance shows a maximum monthly return of 7% and a longest consecutive monthly gain of 6 months, with an average monthly return of 3.3% [1] Group 2: Index Composition - The Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index closely tracks the performance of companies with high and stable free cash flow levels [2] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index include China National Offshore Oil Corporation, SAIC Motor, and Gree Electric Appliances, collectively accounting for 51.95% of the index [2] Group 3: Component Stocks - The top ten component stocks and their respective weightings include: - China National Offshore Oil Corporation: 10.34% - SAIC Motor: 8.80% - Gree Electric Appliances: 8.68% - COSCO Shipping Holdings: 4.49% - China Aluminum: 3.77% - Baosteel: 3.48% - Great Wall Motors: 3.41% - Chint Group: 3.01% - China Unicom: 2.95% - Weichai Power: 2.94% [4]

Group 1 - The Shanghai 180 Index (000010) increased by 0.62% as of January 28, 2026, with notable gains from China Aluminum (601600) at 10.02%, Zhongjin Gold (600489) at 10.01%, Shandong Gold (600547) at 9.97%, Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) at 9.80%, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (600938) at 6.98% [1] - The Shanghai 180 ETF Index Fund rose by 0.71%, reaching a new high in nearly one year as of January 28, 2026 [1] - The unit net value of the Ping An Shanghai 180 ETF Connect A (023547) was 1.22 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.58% and a cumulative increase of 0.29% over the past week [1] Group 2 - The Ping An Shanghai 180 ETF Connect A (023547) achieved an annualized excess return of 0.11% over the benchmark in the past six months as of January 28, 2026 [2] - The maximum drawdown for the Ping An Shanghai 180 ETF Connect A since the beginning of the year was 1.21%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.08%, ranking 5th out of 25 in its category, indicating low drawdown risk [2] - The fund, established on March 20, 2025, aims to closely track the performance of the Shanghai 180 ETF Index Fund (530280) [2] - The current fund managers, Liu Jieqian and Wang Yun, have achieved a return of 22.43% since Liu's appointment on March 20, 2025 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai 180 ETF Index Fund (530280) has shown a positive performance with a recent increase of 0.71% over the past week and a 14.83% rise over the last six months, indicating strong market interest and potential investment opportunities [1][2]. Performance Summary - As of January 28, 2026, the Shanghai 180 ETF Index Fund has achieved a maximum monthly return of 9.13% since its inception, with the longest consecutive monthly gain being 6 months and a total gain of 22.51% during that period [2]. - The fund has a historical average monthly return of 3.08%, with a monthly profit percentage of 72.73% and a monthly profit probability of 74.89% [2]. - The fund has maintained a 100% probability of profit over a one-year holding period since inception, with an annualized return exceeding the benchmark by 2.31% [2]. Risk and Fee Analysis - The maximum drawdown for the fund this year is 1.30%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.06%, indicating a relatively stable performance [3]. - The management fee for the fund is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, which are among the lowest in comparable funds [3]. - The tracking error over the past three months is 0.018%, demonstrating high tracking precision compared to similar funds [3]. Index Composition - The Shanghai 180 Index consists of 180 securities selected from the Shanghai market, reflecting the overall performance of core listed companies [3]. - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index include Kweichow Moutai, Zijin Mining, and China Ping An, collectively accounting for 25.29% of the index [3].