Market Overview - US stock indices experienced fluctuations but closed higher, with the Dow Jones and Nasdaq both up by 0.24% and the S&P 500 up by 0.38% [1] - The VIX index increased by 4.4% to 18.02, indicating a rise in market volatility [1] - The US dollar index fell by 0.79% to 97.86, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond decreased by 1.401% to 4.362% [1] - Spot gold rose by 0.94% to $3,386.57 per ounce, and Brent crude oil increased by 0.5% to $70.26 [1] Industry & Stocks - Most sectors in the S&P 500 saw gains, with utilities up 1.21%, technology up 0.93%, and healthcare up 0.78%, while communication and industrial sectors declined by 0.81% and 0.26% respectively [2] - Chinese concept stocks mostly fell, with notable movements including TSMC up 0.98% and Alibaba down 1.45% [2] - Major tech stocks had mixed results, with Microsoft up 1.32% and Nvidia up 1.52%, while Google and Meta saw declines of 1.02% and 0.11% respectively [2] - Boeing's stock dropped by 4.79% following a plane crash in India that resulted in over 290 fatalities [2] Company Focus - Oracle reported Q4 earnings that exceeded expectations, with revenue up 11% year-over-year to $15.9 billion and cloud infrastructure revenue soaring 52% to $3 billion [3] - Nvidia's CEO announced that the company will exclude the Chinese market from its revenue and profit forecasts [4] - AMD's CEO highlighted that the AI chip market is expected to exceed $500 billion by 2028, with their new MI350 chip series outperforming Nvidia's products [5] - Reports indicate that the US and China reached a preliminary agreement on rare earth export licenses, valid for six months [6] - Micron Technology plans to invest approximately $200 billion in chip manufacturing and R&D in the US, aiming to create 90,000 jobs [9] - South Korea's semiconductor exports grew by 21.2% year-over-year in May, reaching $13.8 billion, driven by strong demand for AI-related chips [10] - The US saw a significant drop in imports at major ports in May, with Long Beach and Los Angeles ports experiencing declines of 20.9% and 8.5% respectively [11] - Airbus raised its 20-year forecast for commercial aircraft demand by 2% to 43,420 units, reflecting a slight adjustment in global economic growth predictions [13] - BioNTech agreed to acquire CureVac for approximately $1.25 billion, ending a long-standing competition between the two companies [14]

Core Viewpoint - The CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) technology is gaining traction in the optical communication sector, with significant stock price increases for companies involved in this field, indicating a growing market interest and potential investment opportunities [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Tianfu Communication (300394.SZ) saw a price increase of 12.12%, reaching 76.20, with a market capitalization of 591.2 billion [2]. - LianTe Technology (301205.SZ) experienced a 10.66% rise, with a current price of 80.47 and a market cap of 54.7 billion [2]. - Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ) reported a 7.93% increase, with a price of 116.54 and a market cap of 1288.5 billion [2]. - Bochuang Technology (300548.SZ) increased by 6.35%, reaching 56.07, with a market cap of 150.5 billion [2]. - Dekeli (688205.SS) rose by 6.32%, with a price of 67.00 and a market cap of 59.1 billion [2]. - Guangxun Technology (002281.SZ) saw a 5.58% increase, with a price of 45.61 and a market cap of 352.6 billion [2]. Group 2: CPO Technology Developments - Broadcom announced the delivery of the Tomahawk 6 (TH6) switch chip, which supports both conventional and CPO versions [3]. - TSMC is accelerating its co-packaged optical technology, expecting to have production lines ready by June 2025, with small-scale production in the second half of 2025 and mass production starting in 2026 [3]. - NVIDIA introduced co-packaged optical switches at the GTC conference, with InfiniBand CPO expected to launch in the second half of 2025 and Ethernet CPO planned for the second half of 2026 [3]. Group 3: Market Insights - CPO technology enables miniaturization and integration of high-speed optical modules, reducing chip packaging size and improving system integration [4]. - The technology facilitates direct connections from CPUs and GPUs to various devices, enhancing resource pooling and memory disaggregation while minimizing signal transmission loss and power consumption [4]. - The CPO market generated approximately $3.8 million in revenue in 2022, projected to reach $2.6 billion by 2033, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 46% from 2022 to 2033 and 80% from 2028 to 2033 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The smartphone purchasing intention is weakening, particularly in the U.S. market, with a future 12-month purchasing intention of 36%, showing a month-on-month decline and year-on-year stability [1][12]. Group 1: Market Trends - The ideal replacement cycle for smartphones has extended to 31.1 months, indicating a slowdown in replacement behavior [2][13]. - U.S. purchasing intention has significantly dropped to 37%, down from 50% and 44% in the previous quarters [2][12]. - Despite a 3.2% year-to-date increase in smartphone sales as of April, the overall forecast for global smartphone sales remains conservative, with only a 1% year-on-year growth expected in 2025 and flat growth in 2026 [2][9]. Group 2: Impact of Tariffs - Tariffs are affecting global smartphone buyer sentiment, with 19% of respondents citing concerns over tariffs impacting prices as a reason for not purchasing [3][10]. - Among those likely to purchase a smartphone in the next 12 months, 82% are willing to accept some price increase due to tariffs, but 62% would seek cheaper alternatives if the increase is deemed excessive [3][13]. - The potential for OEMs to raise prices to offset tariff impacts could lead to a broader price increase across the market, affecting demand [3][10]. Group 3: Consumer Interest in AI Features - Interest in generative AI features in smartphones is slowly increasing, but it has not yet translated into significant changes in purchasing behavior [4][14]. - Only 34% of respondents indicated they would purchase a smartphone earlier or pay extra for generative AI features, suggesting that interest has not yet driven substantial demand [4][14]. Group 4: Stock Recommendations - UBS maintains a positive outlook on several smartphone-related stocks, including ASE, Broadcom, Hon Hai, and MediaTek, among others, with buy ratings [5][8]. - Caution is advised for Hua Hong Semiconductor, rated as a sell, and LG Display, rated neutrally [6][7].

Market Performance - On June 10, US stock indices all rose, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching a three-month high during intraday trading [2][3] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.25% at 42,866.87 points, the S&P 500 rose 0.55% to 6,038.81 points, and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.63% to 19,714.99 points [2][3] Sector Performance - In the banking sector, major stocks showed mixed results, with JPMorgan rising 0.73%, Bank of America up 0.55%, and Goldman Sachs increasing by 0.25%, while Citigroup fell 0.17% and Morgan Stanley dropped 0.05% [3] - The energy sector saw most major stocks rise, with Schlumberger up over 4%, ConocoPhillips increasing by over 3%, and ExxonMobil and Occidental Petroleum both rising over 2% [4] - Airline stocks had mixed performance, with Southwest Airlines up over 2% and Delta Airlines rising 1%, while United Airlines fell 0.32% [5] Technology Sector - The semiconductor industry saw a broad increase, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising 2.06% and Intel increasing by over 7% [5] - Tesla's stock rose over 5%, bringing its market capitalization back above $1 trillion, reaching $1.05 trillion [5] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks listed in the US showed a slight increase, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising 0.3% [6] - Notable gainers included Yatsen Holding up over 15% and Legend Biotech rising over 8% [6] Commodity Prices - International gold prices and oil prices experienced narrow fluctuations after previous volatility [7] - On June 10, London gold prices slightly decreased but remained above $3,300 per ounce, while NYMEX WTI crude oil futures also saw a minor decline of less than 1% [8][9]

Group 1 - The US stock market opened mixed on June 10, with the Dow Jones down 0.04%, Nasdaq up 0.15%, and S&P 500 up 0.11% [1] - Tencent Music's stock rose over 4% following the announcement of its proposed acquisition of Himalaya Holdings [1][4] - TSMC's stock increased by over 2%, reporting a 39.6% year-on-year revenue growth for May [1] Group 2 - Nvidia and Siemens announced plans to build a new supercomputer named "Blue Lion" in Germany, utilizing Nvidia's next-generation "Vera Rubin" chips, expected to be available to scientists by early 2027 [2] - IBM released a roadmap on June 10, outlining its plan to develop a large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029 [3] Group 3 - VinFast reported a significant increase in electric vehicle deliveries, with a total of 36,330 units delivered in Q1, representing a 296% year-on-year growth [5] - The company's total revenue for Q1 reached approximately 6.57 billion USD, a 149.9% increase year-on-year, while it incurred a net loss of about 7.12 billion USD [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The human-shaped robot index increased by 1.33% during the week of June 3-6, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index, with a year-to-date increase of 24.11% [5][13] - Significant developments in the industry include the launch of the TrackVLA navigation model by Galaxy General, the introduction of Pepsi's first humanoid robot "Pepsi Blue Treasure," and strong orders for humanoid robots reported by TSMC [20][21][22] - The establishment of innovation centers in Hubei and Beijing aims to enhance the development and application of humanoid robots, with significant funding and support from local governments [33][34] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The human-shaped robot index has shown a year-to-date increase of 24.11%, with notable weekly performance compared to major indices [5][13] Industry Developments - Galaxy General launched the TrackVLA model, which enhances autonomous navigation capabilities [20] - Pepsi introduced its first humanoid robot, showcasing advancements in robotics [21] - TSMC reported strong orders for humanoid robot applications, indicating market demand [22] - The total order scale for Songyan Power's humanoid robots has surpassed 2,000 units, reflecting robust market interest [23] Policy News - The Hubei humanoid robot innovation center was inaugurated, marking a significant step in the industry [33] - Beijing's humanoid robot innovation center increased its registered capital, enhancing its operational capacity [34] - The establishment of the Guangdong AI and Robotics Industry Alliance aims to foster collaboration and innovation in the sector [36] Supply Chain Dynamics & Company Announcements - Fulei New Materials and Zhejiang Tsinghua Flexible Electronics Research Institute established a joint laboratory to promote innovation in sensing technologies [37] - Keli Sensor completed a strategic investment in Yuan Voice Technology, expanding its capabilities in tactile sensing [39]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The human-shaped robot index increased by 1.33% during the week of June 3-6, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index, with a year-to-date increase of 24.11% [5][13] - Significant developments in the industry include the launch of the TrackVLA navigation model by Galaxy General, the introduction of Pepsi's first humanoid robot "Pepsi Blue Treasure," and strong orders for humanoid robots reported by TSMC [20][21][22] - The report highlights the establishment of major innovation centers in Hubei and Beijing, aimed at advancing humanoid robot technology and collaboration within the industry [33][34] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The human-shaped robot index has shown a year-to-date increase of 24.11%, with notable performance compared to other indices [5][13] - The index ranks 15th among 31 first-level sub-industry indices, with significant stock movements including Superjet Co. (+28.42%) and Xusheng Group (+13.75%) [6][14] 2. Important Industry Developments 2.1 Industry Development - The TrackVLA model by Galaxy General enables autonomous navigation and obstacle avoidance without pre-mapping, enhancing commercial viability [20] - Pepsi's humanoid robot "Pepsi Blue Treasure" was unveiled, showcasing the brand's innovative spirit [21] - TSMC has begun receiving strong orders for advanced chips used in humanoid robots, contributing to revenue [22] 2.2 Policy News - The Hubei humanoid robot innovation center, the largest in the country, was inaugurated to support various applications [33] - The Beijing humanoid robot innovation center increased its registered capital to 460 million RMB, enhancing its technological collaboration [34] - The Guangdong AI and Robotics Industry Alliance was officially established to promote industry development [36] 2.3 Supply Chain Dynamics & Company Announcements - Fulei New Materials and Zhejiang Tsinghua Flexible Electronics Research Institute established a joint laboratory for intelligent sensing [37] - Keli Sensor completed a strategic investment in Yuan Voice Technology, focusing on multi-dimensional tactile sensing technology [39]

台积电5月营收飙升39.6%，因人工智能需求强劲 金十数据6月10日讯，客户包括英伟达(NVDA.O)和苹果(AAPL.O)的主要芯片制造商台积电(TSM.N)公布 5月份营收增长39.6%至3205亿新台币（合107亿美元），此前，许多公司囤积芯片以应对日益加剧的贸 易不确定性。作为对比，4月份的营收增幅为48%。分析师平均预计台积电第二季度营收将增长39%。 虽然5月份的销售看起来相对健康，但较4月份下降了8.3%。台积电首席执行官魏哲家上周重申，公司 预计到2025年，以美元计算，营收将增长20%左右。他告诉股东，人工智能芯片仍供不应求。上个月， 英伟达发布了稳健的销售预测，称人工智能计算市场仍将呈指数级增长，缓解了投资者的担忧。 ...

行 业 周 报 [Table_Authors] 证券分析师 方霁 S0630523060001 fangji@longone.com.cn 联系人 董经纬 djwei@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] [table_product] 相关研究 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年6月9日 [Table_NewTitle] 博通2025Q2 AI营收大幅增长，存储市场 持续回暖 ——电子行业周报2025/6/2-2025/6/8 [table_main] 投资要点： 电 子 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 行 业 研 究 [table_invest] 标配 1.8月国内手机出货量同比上升 26.7%，联想发布多款AIPC新 1. 英伟达Q1数据中心业务成绩亮 眼，美限制EDA龙头对华提供服务 品 — — 电 子 行 业 周 报 ——电子行业周报（2025/5/26- 2025/6/1） （20240923-20240929） 2. 小米发布自研玄戒双芯，华为鸿 蒙电脑正式发布——电子行业周报 （ ...

Group 1: Global AI Outlook - The report highlights a new paradigm in AI development characterized by new scaling, new architecture, and new total addressable market (TAM) opportunities [1] - The demand for computing power is expected to rise due to advancements in both training and inference processes, potentially unlocking new TAMs [1][3] - The report maintains a positive outlook on AI industry investments, anticipating that global AI applications will enter a performance harvesting phase [1] Group 2: Model Development - The pre-training scaling law is anticipated to open a new starting point for model development, with significant innovations in architecture being explored [2][23] - The report notes that the classic transformer architecture has reached a parameter scale bottleneck, with existing public data nearly exhausted [2][20] - Major tech companies are experimenting with new architectures, such as Tencent's Hunyuan TurboS and Google's Gemini Diffusion, which may accelerate scaling law advancements [23][24] Group 3: Computing Power Demand - The report identifies a clear long-term upward trend in computing power demand, driven by both training and inference needs [3][32] - New scaling paths are emerging in the post-training phase, with ongoing exploration of new architectures that may reignite pre-training demand narratives [3][33] - The deployment of large-scale computing clusters, such as OpenAI's StarGate, is expected to support the exploration of pre-training [38] Group 4: Application Development - The report indicates that the rapid advancement of agent applications is leading to a performance harvesting phase for global AI applications [4][67] - The commercialization of agent products is accelerating, with domestic AI applications quickly iterating and entering the market [4][67] - The report emphasizes that agent applications are evolving from simple tools to complex solutions, with significant growth expected in various sectors [5][68] Group 5: Business Model Transformation - The shift from traditional software delivery to outcome-based delivery is highlighted as a key trend, with quantifiable ROI accelerating the adoption of agent applications [5] - Specific sectors such as consumer-facing scenarios (advertising, e-commerce) and AI in marketing/sales are expected to lead in commercialization due to their inherent advantages [5][67] - The report notes that AI applications in HR are transitioning from efficiency tools to strategic hubs, indicating a broader transformation in business models [5][67]