2026 年 01 月 26 日 "固收+"大发展，转债仓位继续被"稀释" 25Q4 基金转债持仓分析 固定收益专题报告 证券研究报告 固定收益组 分析师：尹睿哲（执业 S1130525030009） yinruizhe＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：李玲（执业 S1130525030012） liling3＠gjzq.com.cn 核心观点 25 年四季度权益转入高位震荡、纯债也进入波动但利率水平较低，固收类资金继续向权益市场要收益，但转债不断新 高的估值也带动各产品规模&仓位&持券偏好出现分化。 二级债基"一只独秀"，转债仓位表现分化。1）四季度由于权益转入震荡混合型基金规模基本持平，但对转债的仓位 继续下降、不过降幅有所收窄，目前已来到 17 年，其中偏债混产品的转债仓位主动降低至 3.89%、回到 21 年初的位 置，灵活配置型的转债仓位在连续 2 年的下降后终于止跌回升到 0.66%、但仍然处于历史较低位置。2）一级债基由于 弹性有限、继续表现为小幅赎回，其中仅有转债仓位超 50%的产品表现为净申购，而利率低位的背景下仍然需要向转 债要收益，因此在经过一段时间的仓位降低后一级债基对转债仓位止跌回升 ...

1月23日，" 2026居民端财富管理新趋势——国泰海通非银&银行&地产1月专题论坛"在上海举办， 论坛吸引逾百位机构投资者参与。 上海秩汇科技有限公司创 始人 徐 海宁、 浦发银行财富管理部 金总、 冰山指数创始人 李彦国分别就 居民财富管理新趋势、2026年房价趋势 等议题带来精彩演讲。国泰海通非银、银 行、地产团队带来最新研究观点分享。以下为部分嘉宾的观点集锦： 2026房价矛在哪里？ 涂力磊-国泰海通证券研究所所长助理、先进制造组长、房地产首席分析师、中小市值与创新股权联席首席分析师 十四五和十五五期间，党中央对地产行业发展要求，房地产行业总量所处阶段存在明显差异。房地产行业高质量发展要求的提出，从防风险、提品质、 促转型等多维度为行业提供纲领性指引。我们认为未来五年行业将步入提质增效发展新阶段，看好行业迈入格局和盈利稳定，蓝筹基本面持续优化阶 段。 我们认为，短期开发板块延续需求端不适应供需关系的限制政策继续松绑，与此同时叠加信贷支持。开发板块长期落实以需求定供给的大方针。土地供 给以人定房，保障性住房确保民生兜底，租赁市场推动机构化转型升级。房屋品质升级为核心任务，新建设立好房标准，改造推进四好建 ...

Group 1: Banking Sector Performance - The first batch of 2025 performance reports from listed banks has been released, with eight banks including China Merchants Bank and Huatai Bank reporting positive growth in net profit attributable to shareholders, with seven of them achieving both revenue and net profit growth [6][7] - Key characteristics observed among these banks include steady asset expansion, improved asset quality with no significant increase in non-performing loan ratios, and increased provisioning efforts despite a decline in coverage ratios [7] - The outlook for 2026 suggests that benefiting from monetary policy, the decline in interest margins is expected to stabilize, potentially leading to a rebound in net interest income growth, while insurance policies are anticipated to boost fee income [7] Group 2: Fiscal and Monetary Policies - The Ministry of Finance has released five important fiscal and financial policies aimed at stimulating economic growth, including optimizing personal consumption loan subsidies and implementing special guarantees for private investment [8][9] - These policies are designed to lower financing costs across various sectors, enhance credit demand in key areas, and improve the efficiency of fund utilization, thereby injecting strong momentum into the economy [9][10] - The government emphasizes a combination of proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to support high-quality development and address challenges in the economy [8] Group 3: Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has announced the addition of 14 futures and options products as specific domestic varieties, marking a significant step in the internationalization of China's futures market [11] - This expansion is the largest in history, with the total number of specific domestic varieties reaching 38, and aims to enhance China's pricing power in global markets [11] - The CSRC's recent actions reflect a zero-tolerance approach towards market manipulation, as evidenced by a substantial fine of 1.02 billion yuan imposed for long-term stock price manipulation [12] Group 4: Global Economic Outlook - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly raised its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 3.3%, reflecting resilience despite challenges such as trade disruptions [13] - Emerging markets and developing economies are expected to maintain growth rates above 4.0%, while advanced economies are projected to grow at 1.8% and 1.7% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [13]

1月26日，A股市场震荡，顺周期板块强势，截至15:00，银行ETF汇添富（512820）逆势收涨0.37%，终结三连阴，资金持续涌入高股息的银行板块，银行 ETF汇添富（512820）已连续12日吸金超1.3亿元。 | 1分 5分 15分 = | 综合屏 F9 前复权 超级叠加 画线 工具 Q 2 » | 银行ETF汇添 | 1.350 +0.005 +0.37% | 【银行ETF汇添富】2026/01/26 收1.350 幅0.37%(0.005) 开1.343 高1.360 低1.338 四 | 512 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 7J MA120 1.447J MA250 1.4191 | 2024/11/25-2026/01/26(286日)▼ | SSE CNY 15:00:15 闭市 查看L2全图 | -1.610 | 交生 | -6.70% 120日 ...

Group 1 - The banking sector saw a slight decline of 0.0% on January 26, with Shanghai Pudong Development Bank leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4132.61, down 0.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14316.64, down 0.85% [1] - Major banks in the sector experienced varied performance, with China Merchants Bank rising by 1.39% and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank falling by 1.52% [1] Group 2 - The banking sector experienced a net outflow of 244 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 938 million yuan [1] - Specific banks like Minsheng Bank and Huaxia Bank had mixed capital flows, with Minsheng Bank seeing a net inflow of 107 million yuan from institutional investors [1] - The overall trading volume for the banking sector was significant, with China Merchants Bank recording a trading volume of 216.68 million shares [1]

在业绩增长的背后，负债端成本优化与中间业务收入提升成为关键支撑。 以宁波银行为例，其通过精细化存款管理与结构优化，2025年存款平均付息率较上年下降33个基点，显 著缓解了息差压力。与此同时，宁波银行的手续费及佣金收入同比增长30.72%，成为拉动营收的重要 引擎，反映出银行在财富管理、投资银行等轻资本业务上的拓展成效。 2025年，上市银行资产规模保持稳健增长。招商银行总资产突破13万亿元关口，多家中小银行资产增速 超过11%，规模扩张为业绩增长奠定了基础。 在资产投放上，银行普遍聚焦国家战略与实体经济薄弱环节。科技金融、绿色金融、普惠金融**成为信 贷重点投向，信贷结构进一步优化，服务实体经济质效不断提升。 财韵洞察网||截至2025年1月25日，已有招商银行、中信银行、浦发银行、杭州银行、宁波银行等8家A 股上市银行披露2025年度业绩快报，呈现出一幅整体稳健向好、结构亮点突出的年度答卷。 数据显示，这8家银行全部实现归母净利润同比正增长，其中7家同时实现营业收入与净利润"双增"，城 商行与部分股份制银行业绩增速相对领先。 从已披露的业绩快报看，2025年上市银行盈利回暖态势明显。全部8家银行的归母净利 ...

Group 1: Real Estate Industry Insights - The real estate industry is entering a new phase of quality improvement and efficiency enhancement, with a focus on risk prevention, quality improvement, and transformation [4] - The short-term development sector will continue to see policy easing to address supply-demand mismatches, supported by credit [4] - The emphasis will be on upgrading housing quality and establishing standards for new constructions, while ensuring the safety of the entire lifecycle of housing [4] Group 2: Banking Sector Trends - The trend of "deposit migration" continues, primarily affecting 2-3 year fixed deposits, while 1-year deposits remain stable [6] - Credit growth is expected to remain similar to 2025, with a slight decline in growth rate, primarily focused on corporate lending [6] - Net interest income growth is anticipated to improve due to a significant narrowing of interest margins, with most large banks experiencing a decline of less than 10 basis points [6] Group 3: Non-Bank Financial Sector Opportunities - Investment opportunities in the non-bank financial sector are centered around three main themes: wealth management related to financial technology and brokerage firms, valuation recovery in the insurance sector due to stable interest rates, and the expansion of digital RMB [9] - The retail business is expected to have a competitive advantage, benefiting from the entry of resident funds into the market in a low-interest-rate environment [9] - The digital RMB is supported by national development initiatives, which will drive upgrades in banking systems and payment terminals, increasing service fees in the banking IT and third-party payment sectors [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the securities and banking sectors, while also recommending the insurance sector [8]. Core Insights - The market remains active with an average daily trading volume of 28 trillion yuan in A-shares, and the financing balance stabilizing at 2.7 trillion yuan. However, the ETF market has experienced significant volatility, with major outflows from core broad-based ETFs [11][16]. - The sentiment for market bullishness is strong, and the spring rally is expected to continue, particularly in the insurance sector where beta trading opportunities are anticipated [2][26]. - The central bank's governor indicated that there is still room for interest rate cuts, with the latest Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remaining unchanged for eight consecutive months [11][32]. Securities Sector Summary - The report highlights a positive outlook for the securities sector, with several brokerages reporting significant profit growth for 2025. The recommendation includes top brokerages such as CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, and GF Securities [2][12]. - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market is noted at 28 trillion yuan, with a stable financing balance, indicating a recovery opportunity for the brokerage sector [11][12]. Insurance Sector Summary - The report suggests focusing on quality leading companies in the insurance sector, as the market sentiment remains strong and the spring rally is expected to continue [26][27]. - The insurance sector's fund holdings have increased, with major stocks like Ping An and China Life being highlighted for their significant market presence [27][31]. Banking Sector Summary - The banking sector is characterized by stable performance, with several banks reporting positive earnings forecasts for 2025. The report recommends quality individual stocks such as Nanjing Bank and Chengdu Bank [3][40]. - The central bank's comments on potential interest rate cuts and the expansion of wealth management products indicate a favorable environment for banks [32][33]. - The report notes a decline in bond allocations within bank wealth management products, with an increase in deposits and funds [37][34].

Core Viewpoint - The recent launch of satellites by three banks marks a significant step in integrating satellite technology into financial services, enhancing risk monitoring and operational efficiency in various sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Satellite Launches and Applications - China Merchants Bank's "Zhaoyin Jinkui" and Pudong Development Bank's "Puyin Shuzhi" satellites were successfully launched, contributing to the "Tianqi Constellation," China's first global low-orbit satellite IoT network [1][2]. - Previous satellite launches include Ping An Bank's "Ping An 1" and "Ping An 2," which focus on supply chain finance and operational data collection from remote areas [2][3]. - The "Zhaoyin Jinkui" satellite enhances the existing satellite communication matrix of China Merchants Bank, enabling better data transmission and coverage [3]. Group 2: Risk Monitoring and Financial Services - China Merchants Bank utilizes high-resolution satellite imagery for real estate risk monitoring, achieving over 95% accuracy in construction progress tracking [4][5]. - The bank has established partnerships with over 20 key institutional clients for large-scale application of satellite-based risk monitoring services [5]. - Ping An Bank's satellites serve as data transfer stations, helping to bridge information gaps in supply chain financing and improve credit access for small and medium enterprises [3][6]. Group 3: Emergency Communication and Disaster Recovery - The banks emphasize the importance of satellite communication for emergency scenarios, ensuring data transmission even in areas without ground signal coverage [6][7]. - China Merchants Bank has initiated tests for low-orbit satellite communication in financial disaster recovery systems, enhancing business continuity in extreme situations [6][7]. - Pudong Development Bank plans to leverage the "Tianqi Constellation" for comprehensive financial asset management and rapid recovery during natural disasters [6]. Group 4: Industry Trends and Future Directions - The growing commercial space industry in China is prompting banks to invest in satellite technology to innovate financial service models and reduce costs for clients [7][8]. - Other banks, such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Xinyu Bank, are also exploring satellite remote sensing for agricultural applications and asset monitoring [8].

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China Merchants Bank reported a slight increase in revenue and net profit, with total assets exceeding 13 trillion yuan for the first time, indicating steady growth despite a decline in return on equity (ROE) [2][8]. Financial Performance - In 2025, the bank achieved operating revenue of 337.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.01% [3][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 150.18 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1.21% year-on-year [3][4]. - The total profit amounted to 178.99 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 0.19% [3]. Asset Quality - As of the end of 2025, the bank's total assets surpassed 13 trillion yuan, marking a 7.56% increase from the previous year [5][6]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stood at 0.94%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points year-on-year, maintaining a level below 1% for five consecutive years [8]. - The provision coverage ratio was 391.79%, down 20.19 percentage points from the previous year, indicating a strong risk mitigation capacity [8]. Return on Equity (ROE) - The ROE for 2025 fell to 13.33%, a decrease of 1.05 percentage points from the previous year, raising concerns among investors [8][9]. - The management acknowledged that the decline in ROE is linked to slower profit growth and net asset growth, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a high ROE for shareholder returns [9]. Market Performance - In 2025, the A-shares and H-shares of China Merchants Bank saw cumulative increases of 13.23% and 32%, respectively [10]. - The bank's A and H share prices were reported at 37.5 yuan and 46.4 HKD, with an AH premium rate of approximately -12%, indicating a rare occurrence of price inversion among A+H listed banks [10]. Dividend Policy - The bank announced its first interim dividend in 2025, totaling 25.55 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 35.02% [9][10].