Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" for key stocks such as Xining Steel, Nanjing Steel, Hualing Steel, and Baosteel, with a recommendation to increase holdings in New Steel Pipe and Ningjin Steel [6][9]. Core Insights - The black metallurgy industry is gradually recovering its profitability, with a total profit of 31.69 billion yuan from January to May 2025, compared to a loss of 12.72 billion yuan in the same period last year [4][13]. - The average daily pig iron production has slightly increased to 2.423 million tons, indicating a recovery in production capacity utilization [12][18]. - The total inventory of steel has shifted from a decrease to an increase, with social inventory showing a slower depletion rate [25][39]. - The demand for steel products has weakened, with apparent consumption of major steel varieties decreasing by 0.5% week-on-week [39][50]. - The iron ore price has slightly rebounded, with the Platts 62% iron ore price index at 94.4 USD/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.5% [57][70]. Summary by Sections Supply - Daily pig iron production has increased by 0.1 million tons to 2.423 million tons, with a slight rise in production capacity utilization for blast furnaces [12][18]. Inventory - The total inventory of five major steel varieties has increased by 0.1%, with social inventory decreasing by 0.7% year-on-year [25][27]. Demand - Apparent consumption of five major steel varieties has decreased by 0.5% week-on-week, with rebar consumption slightly increasing by 0.3% [39][50]. Raw Materials - Iron ore prices have shown a slight increase, while coke prices have decreased, indicating potential pressure on raw material costs [50][57]. Prices and Profits - The current steel price index has slightly declined, but immediate gross margins have improved, with long-process steel products showing a cost of 3,177 yuan/ton and a loss of 77 yuan/ton [69][71].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector has shown resilience during the off-peak season, with a notable increase in iron and steel production, indicating a potential investment opportunity [3][4] - The report highlights that despite challenges such as supply-demand imbalances and declining overall industry profits, the implementation of "stability growth" policies is expected to support steel demand, particularly in real estate and infrastructure sectors [4][6] - The report suggests that certain steel companies are undervalued and presents structural investment opportunities, especially for high-margin special steel enterprises and leading companies with strong cost control [4][6] Weekly Market Performance - The steel sector rose by 2.16%, outperforming the broader market, with specific segments like special steel and long products seeing increases of 2.64% and 3.70% respectively [3][11] - The average daily pig iron production reached 2.4229 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase [25][40] Supply Data - As of June 27, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.8%, with a slight increase of 0.04 percentage points week-on-week [25] - The total production of five major steel products was 7.703 million tons, marking a week-on-week increase of 1.59% [25][24] Demand Data - The consumption of five major steel products decreased to 8.799 million tons, a decline of 0.49% week-on-week [33][29] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders increased slightly, indicating stable demand in that segment [33] Inventory Data - Social inventory of five major steel products decreased to 9.065 million tons, down 0.72% week-on-week [40][37] - Factory inventory increased to 4.335 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 1.82% [40][38] Price Trends - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel decreased to 3344.6 yuan/ton, a drop of 0.49% week-on-week [46] - The comprehensive index for special steel fell to 6591.1 yuan/ton, down 0.29% week-on-week [46] Profitability - The profit per ton for rebar produced in blast furnaces was 145 yuan, a decrease of 6.45% week-on-week [54] - The average cost of pig iron was reported at 2138 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decline [54] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as companies benefiting from the new energy cycle [4][70]

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-06-27 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-06-27 所长 早读 失业及 GDP 数据强化年内两次降息预期 观点分享： 根据美国劳工部发布的数据，6 月 14 日当周，美国续请失业救济人数升至 197.4 万人， 高于市场预期 195 万人，为 2021 年 11 月以来的最高水平，且过去一个半月来持续大幅上 升，反映出失业者失业时间延长；首次申请失业救济人数降至 23.6 万人，低于预期的 24.3 万人。用于平滑短期波动的 "四周移动平均值" 也降至 24.5 万人。这两组数据或说明当前 的局面是企业正在放缓招聘，但仍然保留现有员工。另外值得关注的重要数据是美国一季度 实际 GDP 年化季环比终值 -0.5%，预期 -0.2%，初值 -0.2%，2024 年第四季度为 2.4%。标 志着美国经济三年来首次出现萎缩。前述经济数据强化了市场对美联储今年至少降息两次的 预期。而关于降息的时点，近日特朗普在其美国总统第一任期内任命的两位美联储理事沃勒 和鲍曼均表示，如果通胀保持受控，他们愿意在美联储 7 月会议支持降息。但之后约十位美 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot sentiment of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is boosted, and both are in wide - range fluctuations [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Data - Ferrosilicon 2508 closed at 5422, up 14 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 24,040 and an open interest of 30,275; Ferrosilicon 2509 closed at 5384, up 10, with a trading volume of 197,830 and an open interest of 221,410 - Silicomanganese 2508 closed at 5672, up 20, with a trading volume of 23,926 and an open interest of 22,884; Silicomanganese 2509 closed at 5676, up 22, with a trading volume of 266,707 and an open interest of 398,460 [1] 3.1.2 Spot Data - The aggregated price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; The price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5520 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton - The price of manganese ore Mn44 block was 37.5 yuan/ton - degree; The price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu was 580 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.3 Spread Data - The basis of ferrosilicon (spot - 08 futures) was - 272 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton; The basis of silicomanganese (spot - 09 futures) was - 156 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton - The spread between near and far months of ferrosilicon 2508 - 2509 was 38 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton; The spread between near and far months of silicomanganese 2508 - 2509 was - 16 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton - The cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2508 - ferrosilicon 2508 was 250 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton; The cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2509 - ferrosilicon 2509 was 292 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On June 26, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi was 5000 - 5100 yuan/ton, 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton in Ningxia (up 50), 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton in Qinghai (up 50), 5150 - 5200 yuan/ton in Gansu (up 50), and 5150 - 5200 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia (up 50); The price of 75 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi was 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton, 5550 - 5650 yuan/ton in Ningxia, 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton in Qinghai, 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton in Gansu, and 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia. The FOB price of 72 ferrosilicon was 1000 - 1030 dollars/ton, and that of 75 was 1080 - 1110 dollars/ton. The northern quotation of 6517 silicomanganese was 5450 - 5500 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation was 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton due to tight supply [2] - UMK announced its manganese ore quotation to China in July 2025: Mn36% South African lump ore was 3.85 dollars/ton - degree, down 0.05 dollars/ton - degree from the June quotation. Xinyu Iron and Steel set the new round of ferrosilicon procurement price at 5600 yuan/ton delivered to the factory by acceptance bill, up 110 yuan/ton from the previous round, with a quantity of 700 tons [2] - In May 2025, the export of Australian manganese ore through Port Hedland was 82,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons (9.3% increase), but a year - on - year decrease of 33.28% compared with 122,908 tons in the same period last year. All the manganese ore was exported to China in May. From January to May 2025, the total export of Australian manganese ore through Port Hedland was 433,472 tons, a significant year - on - year decrease of 34.83% compared with 665,092 tons in the same period last year [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is 1; The trend intensity of silicomanganese is 1. The range of trend intensity is an integer within [- 2,2], with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Views - Gold: Geopolitical ceasefire, with a trend strength of 1; Silver: Continuing to surge, with a trend strength of 1 [2][6][10] - Copper: Stronger LME copper spot prices support the price, trend strength is 1 [2][12][14] - Aluminum: Bullish, Alumina: Sharp rebound, Aluminum alloy: Bullish oscillation, trend strengths are 1, 0, 0 respectively [2][15][17] - Zinc: Short - term bullish, trend strength is 1 [2][18] - Lead: Bullish, trend strength is 1 [2][20][21] - Tin: Tight present but weak future expectations, trend strength is 0 [2][23][27] - Nickel: Loosening expectations at the distal nickel ore end, and the smelting end limits the upside potential; Stainless steel: Weakening supply and demand, steel prices oscillating at low levels, trend strengths are both 0 [2][28][31] - Lithium carbonate: Increasing warehouse receipts but low total volume, short - term oscillating, trend strength is 0 [2][32][34] - Industrial silicon: Affected by production cut news, pay attention to the upside space; Polysilicon: Market sentiment fermenting, also pay attention to the upside space, trend strengths are both 0 [2][35][38] - Iron ore: Repeated expectations, range - bound oscillation, trend strength is 0 [2][39][40] - Rebar: Wide - range oscillation; Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range oscillation, trend strengths are both 0 [2][42][45] - Ferrosilicon: Spot sentiment boosting, wide - range oscillation; Silicomanganese: Spot sentiment boosting, wide - range oscillation, trend strengths are both 1 [2][47][49] - Coke: Releasing sentiment, bullish oscillation; Coking coal: Inspection disturbances continuing to ferment, bullish oscillation, trend strengths are 0 and 1 respectively [2][50][53] - Steam coal: Demand yet to be released, wide - range oscillation, trend strength is 0 [2][55][58] - Log: As the main contract approaches delivery, the game intensifies, trend strength is 0 [2][59][61] - p - Xylene: Month - spread reverse arbitrage; PTA: Month - spread reverse arbitrage; MEG: Unilateral weakening [2][62][63] Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamentals**: For gold, the closing price of SHFE Gold 2508 was 775.28, with a daily increase of 0.17%, and the night - session closing price was 774.06, with a night - session increase of 0.12%. For silver, the closing price of SHFE Silver 2508 was 8796, with a daily increase of 0.80%, and the night - session closing price was 8821.00, with a night - session increase of 0.88% [6] - **News**: Fed officials stated they are not ready to support a rate cut in the July meeting; Trump won't decide on the next Fed chairman soon [7][11] Copper - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of SHFE Copper main contract was 78,890, with a daily increase of 0.27%, and the night - session closing price was 79790, with a night - session increase of 1.14%. LME copper inventories decreased by 400 to 93,075, and the LME copper cash - 3M spread widened to 319.83 [12] - **News**: India's new copper smelter starts processing ore; JX Metal in Japan cuts refined copper production; China's May copper ore imports decreased by 17.55% month - on - month [12][14] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of SHFE Aluminum main contract was 20445, and the LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2585. The closing price of SHFE Alumina main contract was 2948, and the closing price of Aluminum alloy main contract was 19715 [15] - **News**: The EU may lower tariffs on the US to reach a trade agreement [17] Zinc - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of SHFE Zinc main contract was 22240, with a daily increase of 0.88%. LME zinc inventories decreased by 3025 to 119850 [18] - **News**: Not mentioned Lead - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of SHFE Lead main contract was 17225, with a daily increase of 0.20%. LME lead inventories decreased by 2000 to 273250 [20] - **News**: Fed officials not ready to support a rate cut in July; Trump won't decide on the next Fed chairman soon [21] Tin - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of SHFE Tin main contract was 267,270, with a daily increase of 1.62%. The SMM 1 tin ingot price decreased by 500 to 265,300 [24] - **News**: Fed officials not ready to support a rate cut in July; Trump won't decide on the next Fed chairman soon [25] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of SHFE Nickel main contract was 120,830, and the closing price of Stainless steel main contract was 12,635 [28] - **News**: Canada's Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron project enters trial production; A nickel smelter in Indonesia resumes production; An Indonesian cold - rolling mill may continue maintenance [28][31] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the 2507 contract was 61,580. The battery - grade lithium carbonate price was 60,600, up 400 [32] - **News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rose 434 to 60745 [33] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Si2509 was 7,720, and the closing price of PS2508 was 31,715 [36] - **News**: Longi Green Energy's solar plant in Indonesia starts operation [36] Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the 12509 contract was 705.5, with a daily increase of 0.43%. The price of PB ore was 701.0, unchanged [39] - **News**: The US dollar index fell below 97.0, hitting a new low since February 2022 [39] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of RB2510 was 2,973, with a daily increase of 0.10%, and the closing price of HC2510 was 3,103, with a daily increase of 0.39% [43] - **News**: Steel production, inventory, and export data are released; a military parade will be held in Beijing [44][45] Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Ferrosilicon 2508 was 5422, and the closing price of Manganese Silicon 2508 was 5672 [47] - **News**: The prices of Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon in the spot market increased [47][48] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of JM2509 was 819.5, with a daily increase of 1.86%, and the closing price of J2509 was 1395.5, with a daily increase of 0.58% [51] - **News**: Northern port coking coal prices are reported; CCI metallurgical coal index changes [51][52] Steam Coal - **Fundamentals**: The ZC2507 contract had no trading, with a previous opening price of 931.6000 [56] - **News**: Southern port and domestic origin prices of steam coal are reported [57] Log - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the 2507 contract was 818, with a daily increase of 0.9% [59] - **News**: The US dollar index fell below 97.0 [61] p - Xylene, PTA, and MEG - **Fundamentals**: Not mentioned - **News**: Not mentioned

Core Points - The company held its second extraordinary general meeting of shareholders on June 25, 2025, where all proposed resolutions were approved without any objections [2][4][5] - The board of directors approved the first grant of restricted stock under the A-share incentive plan, granting 36.89 million shares at a price of 2.15 yuan per share to 152 eligible participants [10][17][24] Group 1: Meeting Details - The meeting was convened by the board of directors and chaired by Chairman Liu Jianrong, using a combination of on-site and online voting methods [2][5][8] - All 8 serving directors and 5 serving supervisors attended the meeting, along with some senior executives [3][8] Group 2: Resolutions Passed - The following resolutions were passed: - The revised draft of the first A-share restricted stock incentive plan [4] - The performance assessment methods for the incentive plan [4] - The management measures for the incentive plan [6] - Authorization for the board to handle matters related to the incentive plan [6] - The resolutions received more than two-thirds approval from the shareholders present [4][6] Group 3: Stock Grant Details - The initial grant date for the restricted stock is set for June 25, 2025, with a total of 36.89 million shares granted [17][24] - The number of shares granted was adjusted from 44.5 million to 38.37 million due to 25 participants no longer qualifying for the incentive [28][44] - The stock grant is part of a broader incentive plan aimed at aligning the interests of the company's management with those of its shareholders [10][17] Group 4: Compliance and Legal Opinions - The company ensured compliance with relevant laws and regulations throughout the process, with legal opinions confirming the validity of the resolutions and the stock grant [34][47] - The monitoring committee verified that all participants in the incentive plan met the necessary conditions and that no insider trading occurred prior to the grant [31][40]

Core Viewpoint - The company conducted a self-examination regarding insider trading related to its first A-share restricted stock incentive plan, confirming no violations occurred prior to the public disclosure of the plan [1][2]. Group 1: Insider Information Management - The company implemented necessary confidentiality measures and registered individuals with insider knowledge of the incentive plan [1][2]. - The scope of the investigation included all individuals involved in the planning and discussion of the incentive plan, ensuring strict control over insider information [2]. Group 2: Findings of the Self-Examination - During the self-examination period, no insider trading activities were detected among the registered individuals prior to the announcement of the incentive plan [2]. - The company received verification from the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation regarding the absence of stock trading by the insider information registrants [2].

Core Viewpoint - The company has adjusted the first phase of its A-share restricted stock incentive plan, reducing the number of incentive recipients and the total number of restricted shares to be granted due to some recipients no longer meeting the eligibility criteria [1][2][3] Group 1: Decision Process and Disclosure - The company held multiple board and supervisory meetings to review and approve the incentive plan and its adjustments, ensuring compliance with relevant regulations [1][2] - The company disclosed the approval of the incentive plan and the list of recipients, with no objections raised during the public notice period [2][3] Group 2: Adjustments and Results - A total of 25 incentive recipients were removed from the plan, leading to the cancellation of 6.13 million shares that were to be granted [2] - The number of recipients was adjusted from 177 to 152, while the total number of shares to be granted remains consistent with the approved plan [2][3] Group 3: Impact on the Company - The adjustments made to the incentive plan will not have a substantial impact on the company's financial status or operational results [3] Group 4: Supervisory Board Opinion - The supervisory board confirmed that the adjustments comply with the relevant laws and regulations, and do not harm the interests of shareholders [3][4] Group 5: Legal Opinion - The legal counsel concluded that all necessary approvals and procedures for the adjustments and grants have been fulfilled, and the plan adheres to applicable regulations [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report discusses the first phase of the A-share restricted stock incentive plan of Xinyu Steel Co., Ltd., detailing the approval process, adjustments to the plan, and compliance with relevant regulations [4][5][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - The report defines key terms related to the restricted stock incentive plan, including "restricted stock," "incentive objects," and "grant date" [1]. 2. Independent Financial Advisor's Declaration - The independent financial advisor confirms that the materials provided by Xinyu Steel are legal, accurate, and complete, and that they do not bear any risk responsibility arising from these materials [2][3]. 3. Basic Assumptions - The report is based on several assumptions, including the stability of current laws and regulations, the accuracy of the provided documents, and the absence of unforeseen adverse factors [3]. 4. Independent Financial Advisor's Opinions - The approval process for the incentive plan has been completed, and the adjustments made to the plan are in compliance with relevant regulations [4]. - The number of incentive objects has been adjusted from 177 to 152, and the total number of restricted stocks granted has been reduced from 44.5 million to 38.37 million [4][5]. - The conditions for granting restricted stocks have been met, with no significant issues reported regarding the company's performance or compliance [6]. 5. Grant Date - The first grant date for the restricted stocks is set for June 25, 2025, following the approval from the second temporary shareholders' meeting of 2025 [6][7]. 6. Conclusion - The independent financial advisor concludes that the adjustments and grant conditions of the incentive plan are in accordance with the relevant regulations and that necessary disclosures will be made in due course [7][8].

江西华邦律师事务所 关于新余钢铁股份有限公司 江西华邦律师事务所（以下称"本所"）接受新余钢铁股份有限公司（以 下称"公司"）的委托，指派本所律师出席公司2025年第二次临时股东大会 （以下称"本次股东大会"），对本次股东大会的合法合规性进行见证。 本所律师根据《中华人民共和国公司法》（以下称"《公司法》"）、 《上市公司股东大会规则》（2022年修订）（以下称"《股东大会规则》"） 等法律、法规和规范性法律文件以及《新余钢铁股份有限公司章程》（以下 称"《公司章程》"）的规定，就公司本次股东大会的召集、召开程序、出 席会议人员的资格、召集人的资格、表决程序和表决结果等有关事宜出具本 法律意见书。 本法律意见书仅供公司本次股东大会相关事项的合法性之目的使用，不 得用作任何其他目的，本所律师同意将本法律意见书随公司本次股东大会决 议一起予以公告，并依法对本法律意见书承担相应的责任。 按照律师行业公认的业务标准、道德规范和勤勉尽责精神，本所律师对 本次股东大会的相关资料和事实进行了核查和验证，现发表法律意见如下： 一、本次股东大会的召集、召开程序 司关于召开2025年第二次临时股东大会的通知》（公告编号：临202 ...