Market Overview - The jewelry sector increased by 0.95% on January 5, with ST Xinhua Jin leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4023.42, up by 1.38%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13828.63, up by 2.24% [1] Individual Stock Performance - ST Xinhua Jin (600735) closed at 4.99, with a rise of 5.05% and a trading volume of 88,200 shares, totaling a transaction value of 43.46 million yuan [1] - Cai Zi Co. (605599) closed at 17.02, up by 3.97%, with a trading volume of 82,400 shares and a transaction value of 137 million yuan [1] - Di A Co. (301177) closed at 29.65, increasing by 2.70%, with a trading volume of 17,400 shares and a transaction value of 51.12 million yuan [1] - Other notable stocks include Man Ka Long (300945) at 16.44 (+1.73%), Lai Xi Tong Ling (603900) at 8.57 (+1.30%), and Xin Hua Jewelry (002731) at 12.67 (+0.88%) [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The jewelry sector saw a net inflow of 14.05 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 22.39 million yuan [2] - Major stocks with significant net inflows include Zhou Dazheng (002867) with 22.52 million yuan from institutional investors, and ST Xinhua Jin (600735) with 9.66 million yuan [3] - Conversely, retail investors showed a net outflow from Zhou Dazheng of 19.59 million yuan and from ST Xinhua Jin of 5.32 million yuan [3]

| | 国泰海通证券 | | --- | --- | | 2 | GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES | 目 录 | | 每日报告精选（2025-12-31 09:00——2026-01-05 15:00） 3 | | | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观周报：《地缘风险再起，国际油价或迎剧烈波动》2026-01-04 | 3 | |  | 宏观周报：《元旦"微度假"热度高》2026-01-04 | 3 | |  | 宏观快报点评：《PMI 逆季节性回升，预期改善》2025-12-31 | 4 | |  | 策略专题报告：《1 月金股策略：决胜"开门红"》2026-01-05 | 5 | |  | 资产配置周报：《地缘政治突变，建议超配黄金》2026-01-05 | 6 | |  | 策略专题报告：《AI 应用与机器人主题有望接力》2026-01-04 | 6 | |  | 海外策略研究：《长线外资积极增配港股软件服务》2026-01-04 | 7 | |  | 策略周报：《一年之计在于春》2026-01-04 | 8 | |  | 行业月报：房地产《TOP ...

今日国内金店黄金价格整体上涨，品牌金价较昨日（1月4日）普遍上调。其中，周大福、潮宏基、周大生黄金价格均为 1378元/克，并列市场最高价；上海中国黄金价格保持1285元/克不变，仍为市场最低价。两者价差为93元/克。 上周五的金价波动主要还是紧张的地缘政治局势推动市场避险情绪升温；美联储降息预期的强化，美元走弱支撑金价。而 部分投资者选择在金价冲高后提前获利了结，以及CME期所上调黄金交易保证金的行为，又限制了金价的涨幅。 以下是各大品牌金店详细报价： 今日金价暴涨主要是美国在上周六对委内瑞拉进行的军事行动，以及抓捕委内瑞拉总统马杜罗的行为直接引爆市场避险需 求。而美国总统特朗普还在后续采访中继续威胁委内瑞拉代总统，如不配合，将付出更严重代价，还称美国"绝对需要格陵 兰岛"。 | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2026年1月5日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 1377 | 元/克 | 21 | 涨 | | 六福黄金价格 | 1376 | 元/克 | 21 | 涨 | | 周 ...

Group 1 - The international gold price is currently at $4348.8 per ounce, equivalent to approximately 977.7 RMB per gram, remaining stable compared to the previous week [1] - Domestic gold prices vary significantly among brands, with Lao Feng Xiang and Chow Sang Sang pricing at 1360 RMB per gram, while Lao Miao Jin and Chow Tai Fook are at 1354 RMB and 1357 RMB respectively, showing a price difference of nearly 400 RMB [1] - The wholesale price in Shui Bei is significantly lower at 1140 RMB per gram, but it is primarily a wholesale market, making it less accessible for ordinary consumers [7] Group 2 - The basic gold price in China is 979.00 RMB per gram, with a retail price of 995.00 RMB per gram and a buyback price of 976.00 RMB per gram [2] - Various brands have different gold and platinum prices, with Zhou Dazheng and Chao Hong Ji both pricing gold at 1357.00 RMB per gram and platinum at 855.00 RMB per gram [3][4] - Other brands like Baoqing Silver Shop and Taiyang Gold Store have lower gold prices at 1329.00 RMB and 1209.00 RMB per gram respectively [5][6] Group 3 - The current gold buyback price is only 965 RMB per gram, which is significantly lower than the retail price, indicating that purchasing gold jewelry is more of a consumption rather than an investment [1] - The market for precious metals also includes palladium and platinum, with palladium buyback at 283 RMB per gram and platinum at 442 RMB per gram [8] - Collectible coins, such as the 1-gram Panda coin, are priced at 1348 RMB each, which is higher than jewelry gold prices, indicating a niche market for collectors [10] Group 4 - Analysts suggest that gold prices may fluctuate between 1320 and 1380 USD in the short term, influenced by the strength of the dollar and global central bank purchases [11] - Major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley predict that gold prices could reach 5000 USD per ounce by 2026, indicating potential long-term bullish sentiment [11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Insights - The New Year's holiday consumption data showed strong performance, likely due to the longer holiday period compared to the previous year. Anticipation for the upcoming 9-day Spring Festival holiday is high [4] - Emerging consumer goods are thriving, reflecting new consumption concepts among the younger generation. Understanding these new narratives is key to capturing growth opportunities in new consumer companies [17] Summary by Relevant Sections Travel Data - During the New Year's holiday, an estimated 590 million people traveled, with an average of 198 million daily, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%. Railway passenger volume is expected to reach 48.22 million, a 53.1% increase, while civil aviation passenger volume is expected to be 5.88 million, a 10.49% increase [4] Key Scenic Area Data - Ticket bookings for the "Xi'an City Wall and Beilin Historical Cultural Scenic Area" surged by 134% year-on-year. The growth rate for cultural tourism bookings in Xi'an reached 41%. Mountain scenic area ticket bookings increased by over 150%, with Huangshan orders up 544% year-on-year [4] Duty-Free Sales - During the New Year's holiday, 442,000 duty-free items were sold, a 52.4% increase year-on-year, with shopping amounts reaching 712 million yuan, up 128.9% [4] Restaurant and Hotel Performance - Data from Haidilao indicated over 400,000 table reservations for New Year's Eve and New Year's Day. Hotel occupancy rates increased by nearly 50% compared to the previous year [4] Cosmetics Market - Douyin's beauty segment GMV exceeded 210 billion yuan from January to November 2025, with an annual forecast of over 230 billion yuan. The growth rate for color cosmetics and beauty tools was 24.8%, slightly higher than skincare products [4] Investment Recommendations - In the beauty sector, focus on high-quality domestic brands with strong innovation, such as Maogeping and Shangmei. In the gold and jewelry sector, consider brands like Laopu Gold and Chaohongji that appeal to younger consumers. For trendy toys, companies with successful IP creation and operation experience, like Pop Mart, are recommended. In the ready-to-drink tea sector, strong brands with wide coverage like Mixue Group and Guming are suggested [5][17]

证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2026 01 05 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 2026 年"抢开局"5 大看点 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【宏观】政策半月观—2026 年"抢开局"5 大看点——20260104 【宏观】2026"国补"4 大看点—兼评 12 月 PMI 超季节性回升—— 20251231 【策略】1 月策略观点与金股推荐：配置趋势共识，博弈产业催化—— 20260104 【策略】人民币升值下的投资线索——20260101 【金融工程】上证指数再次确认日线级别上涨——20260104 【金融工程】择时雷达六面图：本周拥挤度指标弱化——20260104 【固定收益】一月债市的风险和机会——20260104 【固定收益】资金平稳跨年，新年政府债发行开启——流动性和机构行 为跟踪——20260103 【固定收益】缓和的落地，节后债市修复——20260101 【通信】无光不 AI，硅基光电子引爆新一轮算力革命——20260104 【化工】2026 年度策略：—迎接破晓时刻——20260101 【电新】光伏：反内卷带来行业拐点，新技术引领突围——20260104 【有色金属】2026 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices, with international gold dropping to $4348.8 per ounce, reflects a market correction after a significant rise, indicating volatility in the gold market and investor behavior [1][2][3]. Price Movements - International gold prices fell from a peak of $4530 on December 28 to $4348.8, while domestic gold prices decreased to 977.7 yuan per gram, with significant fluctuations observed in trading [1][2]. - The price of Au9999 gold bars on the Shanghai Gold Exchange dropped to 976 yuan per gram, with intraday lows below 960 yuan, indicating a notable price volatility [1]. - Major gold retailers show a wide price range, with wholesale prices around 1140 yuan per gram, while branded stores like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang are selling at prices above 1350 yuan per gram [1]. Market Dynamics - The decline in gold prices is attributed to profit-taking by investors after a strong rally, combined with low trading volumes during the holiday period, leading to increased selling pressure [2]. - The recovery market for 9999 gold has seen a drop in buyback prices to 965 yuan per gram, reflecting a quick response to the falling market [2]. Technical Analysis - The $4300 mark is identified as a critical support level for gold prices, with analysts noting that if this level is breached, further declines could occur, while resistance is noted around $4400 [2]. - The market is currently anticipating potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which could influence future price movements [2]. Fundamental Factors - Despite the recent price drop, the fundamental factors supporting gold prices remain intact, including ongoing purchases by global central banks and geopolitical tensions [3]. - China has reportedly increased its gold reserves for 13 consecutive months, now holding over 2300 tons, indicating strong demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. Investment Trends - Gold ETFs are gaining popularity due to their convenience and lower fees compared to physical gold, making them an attractive option for long-term investment [5]. - The market shows a mix of investor sentiment, with some individuals benefiting from previous purchases while others are holding onto assets bought at higher prices [5][6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [5] Core Insights - The consumption market shows strong growth during the New Year holiday, with significant increases in travel and spending among younger demographics [1][2][4] - The cross-year travel and ice-snow tourism are gaining popularity, with notable increases in ticket bookings and hotel reservations [2] - Hainan's duty-free sales doubled in the first two days of the New Year holiday, indicating robust consumer interest [3] - Various cities reported double-digit sales growth during the holiday, reflecting a vibrant consumption environment [4][7] Summary by Sections Travel Trends - High travel enthusiasm was noted during the New Year holiday, with a significant increase in ticket bookings and hotel reservations, particularly among younger travelers [1][2] - The search volume for "cross-year travel" increased by 125% year-on-year, with theme parks and concerts being major attractions [2] Duty-Free Sales - Hainan's duty-free sales reached 30.7 million items, with a 121.5% year-on-year increase in sales amounting to 5.05 billion yuan [3] - The sales in Sanya alone saw a remarkable increase, with sales amounting to 1.63 billion yuan on January 1, marking an 83.2% increase [3] Consumption Growth - Beijing's sales during the holiday reached 4.04 billion yuan, with a 16.3% year-on-year increase [4] - Shanghai reported an average daily consumption of 12.2 billion yuan, with online sales growing by 5.5% year-on-year [4] - Other cities like Qingdao and Nanjing also reported positive sales growth, indicating a broad recovery in consumer spending [4][7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on Hainan and sectors with performance elasticity during the Spring Festival, including duty-free, cross-border e-commerce, and certain scenic spots [8] - It highlights the potential of new consumption trends and the importance of adapting to market changes in 2026 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the textile and apparel sector, including Anta Sports, Li Ning, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance [9][18]. Core Insights - Inditex, the parent company of Zara, reported strong performance for the first three quarters of FY2025, with revenue growth of 2.7% year-on-year to €28.2 billion, and a net profit increase of 3.9% to €4.6 billion [1][13]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the sportswear sector amidst a fluctuating consumer environment, predicting that it will outperform the broader apparel market [3][17]. - The report highlights the importance of inventory management, noting that Inditex's inventory quality remains healthy, with a year-on-year increase of 4.9% to €4.499 billion [1][15]. Summary by Sections Inditex Performance - Inditex's revenue for FY2025's first three quarters reached €28.2 billion, with a currency-neutral growth of 6.2%. Q3 revenue alone grew by 4.9% to €9.8 billion [1][13]. - Gross margin improved by 0.27 percentage points to 59.7% for the first three quarters, with Q3 gross margin rising by 0.79 percentage points to 62.2% [1][13]. - The company aims for a 5% increase in total sales area from 2025 to 2026, while maintaining stable gross margins [2][15]. Sportswear Sector Outlook - The sportswear segment is expected to show strong long-term growth, with recommended stocks including Anta Sports and Li Ning, which have projected PE ratios of 14 and 17 for FY2026, respectively [3][17]. - The report also suggests that Nike's retail operations in Greater China are undergoing a turnaround, with a current PE ratio of 13 for the recommended stock, Tmall [3][17]. Apparel Manufacturing and Brand Recommendations - The apparel manufacturing sector is anticipated to see improved orders in 2026, with recommendations for companies like Shenzhou International and Huayi Group, which have attractive valuations [3][18]. - The report highlights the potential for steady growth in the down jacket segment, recommending Bosideng, with a projected PE of 12 for FY2026 [18]. Market Performance - The brand apparel sector outperformed the broader market, with a weekly increase of 1.13%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.59% [21][22]. - Key stocks such as Red Dragonfly and Luolai Life saw significant weekly gains, while others like Jiuwu Wang faced declines [21][22].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The retail industry is undergoing an evolution in the "people, goods, and scene" framework, driven by emotional consumption, which presents new opportunities for growth [3][25] - High-end gold and fashion jewelry are gaining traction among consumers, with a focus on product differentiation and cultural significance [3][32] - The cosmetics industry is innovating through the IP of technical ingredients and cultural confidence, enhancing product appeal and market competitiveness [3][37] - Offline retail is shifting from selling "goods" to offering "services and experiences," with companies like Yonghui Supermarket leading the transformation [3][41] Summary by Sections Retail Market Overview - In 2025, the retail sector index closed at 2422.59 points, with an annual increase of 8.21%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 18.41% [5][14] - The retail industry ranked 23rd among 31 sectors in terms of performance [15] Industry Dynamics - The emotional value is driving consumer intentions, with a focus on "research-based consumption," "self-satisfaction," and "long-termism" as key decision-making trends [25][28] - High-end gold is becoming a preferred asset for wealth preservation, while fashion gold is appealing to younger consumers through innovative designs and social media engagement [32] - The cosmetics sector is witnessing a shift towards self-developed core ingredients and cultural narratives, enhancing brand value [37] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-quality companies in the emotional consumption theme, particularly in the gold jewelry sector, with recommendations for brands like Chao Hong Ji and Lao Pu Gold [6][50] - Emphasize offline retail companies adapting to market changes, such as Yonghui Supermarket and Ai Ying Shi [6][48] - Highlight cosmetics brands that innovate in emotional value and safety, including Mao Ge Ping and Po Lai Ya [6][48] - Consider differentiated medical beauty product manufacturers and leading medical beauty institutions, recommending companies like Ai Mei Ke and Ke Di-B [6][48]