Core Viewpoint - The launch of the AI model project by Shagang Group aims to enhance production efficiency, reduce operational costs, improve product quality, and make management decisions more scientific through the integration of various data sources [1] Group 1: Project Overview - Shagang Group has initiated an AI model project with the support of a Huawei project team providing technical guidance [1] - The project focuses on creating a high-performance intelligent model platform specifically for the steel industry [1] Group 2: Data Integration and Goals - The AI model will integrate comprehensive data from internal production operations, industry trends, national policies, and cutting-edge metallurgical technologies [1] - The ultimate goal is to establish a unified data governance and model application system to fully activate the digital potential across all production and operational aspects [1]

根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年12月中国线材(盘条)产量为963万吨，同比下降14.1%；2025年1-12月 中国线材(盘条)累计产量为13282.6万吨，累计下降1.6%。 2020-2025年中国线材(盘条)产量统计图 上市企业：杭钢股份（600126）,沙钢股份（002075）,永兴材料（002756）,方大特钢（600507）,凌钢股 份（600231）,抚顺特钢（600399）,*ST西钢（600117）,柳钢股份（601003）,马钢股份（600808）,新钢 股份（600782） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国超微细电子线材行业市场行情动态及投资潜力研究报》 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 ...

Market Performance - On February 4, the general steel sector rose by 2.27% compared to the previous trading day, with Benxi Steel leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4102.2, up 0.85%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14156.27, up 0.21% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Benxi Steel (000761) closed at 3.76, up 6.52% with a trading volume of 384,400 shares and a transaction value of 141 million yuan [1] - Hualing Steel (000932) closed at 6.27, up 4.85% with a trading volume of 1,068,200 shares and a transaction value of 655 million yuan [1] - Anyang Steel (600569) closed at 2.45, up 4.26% with a trading volume of 448,500 shares and a transaction value of 108 million yuan [1] - New Steel (600782) closed at 3.96, up 4.21% with a trading volume of 1,174,500 shares and a transaction value of 458 million yuan [1] - New Casting Pipe (000778) closed at 5.05, up 4.12% with a trading volume of 1,246,300 shares and a transaction value of 619 million yuan [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The steel sector experienced a net outflow of 2.99 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 17.8 million yuan [2] - Hualing Steel had a main fund net inflow of 61.31 million yuan, but a net outflow of 38.48 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Benxi Steel saw a main fund net inflow of 23 million yuan, with a significant net outflow from retail investors amounting to 20.8 million yuan [3]

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2026 年 02 月 03 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 1/ 10 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号： F03113636 投资咨询证号： Z0018817 :021-65789253 :qichunyi_qh@chinastock.c om.cn 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 第二部分 市场研判 【交易策略】 单边：维持震荡偏弱走势 套利：建议逢高做空卷煤比，做空卷螺差继续持有。 期权：建议观望。 【重要资讯】 1.美国 1 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 录得 52.6，为 2022 年 8 月以来新高。 【相关价格】 现货：网价上海中天螺纹 3200 元（-），北京敬业 3140 元（-），上海鞍钢热卷 3260 元（-），天津河钢热卷 3160 元（-1）。 【交易策略】 今日钢材盘面维持震荡偏弱走势，现货成交整体偏弱，螺纹基本进入放假节奏， 热卷成交也偏弱，价格波动收窄。上周钢联数据公布，五大材加速增产，其中热卷增 产速度比螺纹更快；钢材总库存加快累库进度，其中螺纹累库而热卷依然去库，总体 社库压力大于厂库；近期天气转冷，下游工地陆陆续续停工，建材需求下滑；近 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is Neutral, maintained [6] Core Insights - The steel industry accounts for approximately 15% of the national carbon emissions, making it the highest carbon-emitting manufacturing sector. The implementation of low-carbon steelmaking is a significant challenge for Chinese steel companies [2][4] - The "carbon peak" target was first proposed in 2020, evolving into a policy of stabilizing crude steel production. The current deepening of carbon neutrality policies may accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity in the steel industry [2][4] - As the Spring Festival approaches, demand and production are slowing down, leading to a low inventory and low expectation state in the steel market. The overall market is characterized by low production, low inventory, and low expectations, awaiting macro or industrial catalysts [4] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Dynamics - Demand continues to weaken with a year-on-year decrease of 2.02% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.67% in apparent consumption of major steel products [4] - Steel production has slightly increased, with a year-on-year rise of 2.19% and a month-on-month rise of 0.48% in total steel output [4] - Total steel inventory has increased by 1.57% month-on-month and 13.05% year-on-year [4] Section 2: Policy and Regulatory Environment - The carbon intensity reduction target has been a binding indicator since the 12th Five-Year Plan, with a projected reduction of about 7.8% by the end of 2024, which is below expectations [4] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released a carbon emission trading market allocation plan for the steel, cement, and aluminum industries, marking a significant step towards operationalizing carbon control policies [4] Section 3: Investment Opportunities - Short-term focus on energy-saving and carbon-reduction modifications in existing blast furnace-converter processes is a practical choice for steel companies [5] - Long-term investment opportunities may arise in electric arc furnace steelmaking and hydrogen metallurgy as the dual carbon policy deepens [5]

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry in China is undergoing significant structural reforms during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with a focus on capacity management and production reduction exceeding 100 million tons. The "15th Five-Year Plan" will emphasize controlling new capacity, optimizing existing capacity, mergers and acquisitions, and facilitating the exit of outdated capacity [1][2]. Group 1: Capacity Management and Production - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," the steel industry has reduced production by over 100 million tons and will continue to focus on capacity governance in the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1]. - By 2025, China's crude steel production is projected to be 961 million tons, a decrease of 4.4% year-on-year, while pig iron production is expected to be 836 million tons, down 3.0% year-on-year [1]. - The industry aims to strictly control new capacity and ensure the exit of illegal and non-compliant capacity, promoting a continuous optimization of the capacity structure [1][2]. Group 2: Export and Profitability - Despite a decline in domestic consumption, steel exports are expected to reach a record high of 119 million tons in 2025, an increase of 7.5% year-on-year, with an average export price of $694 per ton, down 8.1% year-on-year [1]. - The steel industry's total revenue for key enterprises in 2025 is projected to be 6.1 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.1% year-on-year, while total profits are expected to rise by 140% to 115.1 billion yuan [2]. - The industry is experiencing a shift towards profitability, with the main steel business achieving a profit of 44.5 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [2]. Group 3: Industry Consolidation and Collaboration - The industry is accelerating mergers and acquisitions, with major companies like Baowu Steel taking the lead in self-regulating production and inventory [2]. - By 2025, the concentration of the top 10 steel companies is expected to reach 43.1%, an increase of 4.2 percentage points from 2020, indicating a trend towards greater industry consolidation [2]. - The industry is focusing on enhancing collaboration with downstream sectors such as shipbuilding, transportation, and heavy equipment to explore new markets and applications for steel products [3]. Group 4: Green Development and Regulatory Measures - The steel industry is committed to promoting green and low-carbon transformation, aiming to complete ultra-low emission modifications for surplus capacity [3]. - A dynamic public management mechanism for ultra-low emissions will be established, transitioning from energy consumption control to carbon emission control [3]. - The industry will optimize export structures and implement strict management measures for certain steel product export licenses to ensure high-quality development of export trade [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [5]. Core Insights - Demand is expected to gradually stabilize, while supply-side constraints are anticipated to continue, leading to a potential recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals. If supply policies are implemented, the contraction in supply may accelerate, facilitating a quicker industry upturn [3][4]. Summary by Sections Steel Market Overview - Steel prices have decreased, with the Shanghai rebar price dropping by 20 CNY/ton to 3240 CNY/ton, a decline of 0.61%. The total inventory of steel has increased by 1.70% to 12.7851 million tons [8][12]. - Apparent consumption of five major steel products was 8.0174 million tons, down 0.96% week-on-week but up 28.96% year-on-year [21]. - The production of five major steel products was 8.2317 million tons, an increase of 0.44% week-on-week [12][37]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Approximately 60% of steel companies are currently operating at a loss, indicating a market-driven supply clearance is beginning to occur [4]. - The construction sector's demand for steel is expected to stabilize, while demand from infrastructure and manufacturing is projected to grow steadily [4]. Profitability and Production Margins - The average gross profit for rebar was 196.9 CNY/ton, down 11.7 CNY/ton from the previous week, while hot-rolled coil profit increased by 2.3 CNY/ton to 46.9 CNY/ton [39]. - The profitability rate of 247 steel companies was 39.39%, a decrease of 1.3% from the previous week [28]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with leading technology and product structures, such as Baosteel and Hualing Steel, as well as low-cost firms like Fangda Special Steel and New Steel [4]. - It also highlights the potential of upstream resource companies like Hebei Resources and Erdos, which may benefit from a recovery in demand [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [5] Core Viewpoints - Demand is expected to gradually stabilize, while supply-side constraints are anticipated to continue, leading to a potential recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals [3][5] - The industry has been experiencing prolonged micro-profit conditions, and market-driven supply adjustments have begun to emerge [3][5] - The report highlights that approximately 60% of steel companies are currently operating at a loss, indicating ongoing supply-side challenges [5] Summary by Sections Steel - Steel prices have decreased week-on-week, with the Shanghai rebar price dropping by 20 CNY/ton to 3240 CNY/ton, a decline of 0.61% [8] - The apparent consumption of five major steel products was 8.0174 million tons, down 0.96% week-on-week but up 28.96% year-on-year [21] - The total inventory of steel reached 12.7851 million tons, increasing by 1.70% week-on-week, maintaining a low level [5][12] - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills rose to 79%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points from the previous week [28] - The average gross profit for rebar was 196.9 CNY/ton, down 11.7 CNY/ton from the previous week, while hot-rolled coil profit increased by 2.3 CNY/ton to 46.9 CNY/ton [39] Raw Materials - Iron ore spot prices decreased, with the price for PB powder (61.5% iron content) at 792 CNY/ton, down 9 CNY/ton [46] - The port inventory of iron ore rose to 17.022 million tons, an increase of 1.53% [50] - The total shipment volume of major iron ore producers increased, with Brazil's shipment at 4.852 million tons, up 1.06% week-on-week [51] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with leading technology and product structures, such as Baosteel and Hualing Steel, as well as low-cost firms like Fangda Special Steel and New Steel [5] - It also highlights the potential of upstream resource companies benefiting from demand recovery trends, recommending Hebei Resources and Erdos among others [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the steel sector, including Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and New Steel [8]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a slight decline in daily molten iron production, with the average dropping to 227.9 thousand tons, while steel production has seen a minor increase [13]. - Total steel inventory has expanded, with a week-on-week increase of 1.7%, indicating a growing supply in the market [23]. - Apparent consumption of steel has weakened slightly, with rebar demand decreasing by 13.4% week-on-week [39]. - Iron ore prices are trending downwards, influenced by increased shipments from Australia and Brazil, alongside rising port inventories [48]. - The current steel price index has decreased by 0.2% week-on-week, reflecting a general weakening in the market [72]. Summary by Sections 1. Supply - Daily molten iron production has decreased by 0.2 thousand tons to 227.9 thousand tons, with a slight recovery in steel production [13]. - The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is at 85.5%, down 0.1 percentage points week-on-week but up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [17]. 2. Inventory - The total inventory of five major steel products has increased by 1.7% week-on-week, with social inventory rising to 890.7 thousand tons [25]. - Rebar social inventory has increased by 7.7% week-on-week, while hot-rolled coil inventory has decreased by 1.0% [25]. 3. Demand - Apparent consumption of five major steel products has decreased by 1.0% week-on-week, with rebar consumption down by 4.9% [49]. - Weekly average transaction volume for construction steel has dropped to 67 thousand tons, a decline of 13.4% [41]. 4. Raw Materials - Iron ore prices have weakened, with the Platts 62% iron ore price index at $103.2 per ton, down 1.4% week-on-week [58]. - The total port inventory of iron ore has increased by 1.5% week-on-week, indicating a supply surplus [58]. 5. Prices and Profits - The comprehensive steel price index has decreased to 121.6, reflecting a 0.2% decline week-on-week [72]. - The current profit margins for long-process rebar and hot-rolled coils are negative, indicating cost pressures in the industry [74].

Group 1 - The Chinese steel industry is set to complete its ultra-low emission transformation project by the end of 2025, with a total investment exceeding 370 billion yuan, achieving over 80% of crude steel capacity meeting ultra-low emission standards [2] - The "Three-Year Action Plan for Steel Extreme Energy Efficiency Benchmarking" initiated at the end of 2022 involves 143 enterprises with a total steel capacity of 750 million tons [2] - By 2025, companies like Zhanjiang Steel and Shagang will implement energy efficiency measures, resulting in a reduction of energy consumption in blast furnaces and converters by 2.5% and 12.2% respectively compared to 2023, saving 13.2 million tons of standard coal and reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 34 million tons, equivalent to the annual carbon absorption of approximately 3.1 billion trees [2] Group 2 - The 14th Five-Year Plan period is characterized by significant investment in the steel industry, with a total investment of 1.27 trillion yuan completed for ultra-low emissions and capacity replacement steel enterprises [2] - The industry aims to accelerate the transition to a fully green transformation, promoting the completion of ultra-low emission modifications for remaining steel production capacity and the application of advanced pollution reduction and carbon reduction technologies [3] - The industry will guide enterprises in establishing carbon asset management systems and enhance their capabilities to participate in carbon markets, collaborating with the Ministry of Ecology and Environment on quota distribution and accounting methods [3]