证券研究报告 | 2026年01月21日 投资建议：公司快报数据显示的整体业绩表现较为稳定，与三季报相比变化 不大，目前公司拨备覆盖率仍处于较高水平，有助于维持业绩增长的稳定性。 我们维持盈利预测不变，预计公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润 292/317/341 亿 元，同比增速 7.6%/8.4%/7.7%；摊薄 EPS 为 4.27/4.64/5.01 元；当前股价 对应的 PE 为 6.7/6.2/5.7x，PB 为 0.82/0.74/0.67x，公司 2025 年动态股息 率估计为 3.4%，维持"优于大市"评级。 宁波银行（002142.SZ）2025 年度业绩快报点评 优于大市 业绩表现稳定 宁波银行披露 2025 年度业绩快报。公司 2025 年实现营业收入 720 亿元，同 比增长 8.0%，实现归母净利润 293 亿元，同比增长 8.1%，加权平均净资产 收益率 13.1%。 资产规模保持较快增长。公司 2025 年末资产总额 3.63 万亿元，较年初增长 16.1%，保持较快的扩张速度。其中年末贷款总额 1.73 万亿元，较年初增长 17.4%；存款总额 2.02 万亿元，较年初增 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates a neutral market sentiment with a score of 45, suggesting a balanced outlook for investors [2][10] - Key themes identified for investment include robotics, banking, and retail sectors, each showing potential for growth and stability [6] Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment is rated at 45, categorized as "neutral," indicating moderate volatility and investor stability [10] - Historical trends suggest that when sentiment is below or near 50, the market may find support, while levels above 80 could indicate resistance [10] Investment Themes Robotics - The robotics theme is highlighted by the integration of technology in cultural events, such as the upcoming Spring Festival Gala, showcasing advancements in technology [6] - Related investment opportunities include companies like Sanhua Intelligent Control (002050) and Wolong Electric Drive (600580) [6] Banking - Banking stocks are noted for their high dividend yields, with the China Securities Banking Index yielding 6.02%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield [6] - In a slowing economy, banking stocks are positioned as stable investment options for long-term funds such as insurance and social security [6] - Key banking stocks include Agricultural Bank of China (601288) and Ningbo Bank (002142) [6] Retail - The national business conference set the tone for consumer stimulation and market development in 2026, emphasizing actions to boost consumption and innovate in retail [6] - Companies like Yonghui Supermarket (601933) and Wangfujing (600859) are identified as potential beneficiaries of these initiatives [6]

Core Insights - In 2025, A-share listed banks in China experienced a significant shift in development logic, moving from scale competition to value creation, focusing on core business and providing precise financial services to support high-quality economic development [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share banking sector showed notable structural differentiation in 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index rising by 18.41% and 29.87% respectively, while the banking sector index increased by 12.04% [1] - By the end of 2025, the total market capitalization of A-share banks reached 14.65 trillion yuan, with 35 out of 42 listed banks seeing their stock prices rise, and 19 banks experiencing gains exceeding 10% [1] - In contrast to the broad market rally in 2024, where the banking sector index rose by 43.56%, 2025 marked a transition to a more selective investment environment [1] Group 2: Performance of Major Banks - Agricultural Bank of China led the sector with a stock price increase of 52.66% in 2025, while other major banks like Industrial Bank, China Construction Bank, and Bank of China saw increases of 21.54%, 12.87%, and 10.75% respectively [4] - The total market capitalization of the four major state-owned banks remains dominant, with Industrial Bank at 2.63 trillion yuan and Agricultural Bank at 2.61 trillion yuan [4] - The performance of other major banks was hindered by large capital increases, as several banks announced plans to raise a total of 520 billion yuan through stock issuance [4][5] Group 3: Performance of Joint-Stock Banks - Joint-stock banks exhibited further performance differentiation in 2025, with Shanghai Pudong Development Bank leading with a 24.56% increase, while banks like Huaxia Bank, Everbright Bank, and Minsheng Bank saw declines of 9.82%, 5.59%, and 3.09% respectively [6][7] - The decline in stock prices for these banks can be attributed to poor operating performance, with Huaxia Bank and Everbright Bank reporting revenue and profit declines [8] - Regulatory penalties also impacted these banks, with Huaxia Bank facing over 120 million yuan in fines, indicating ongoing compliance pressures [10][12] Group 4: Regional and Cooperative Banks - City and rural commercial banks showed mixed performance, with Xiamen Bank rising by 35.78%, while others like Zhengzhou Bank and Beijing Bank experienced declines [11] - Regulatory penalties for city commercial banks were significant, with Shanghai Bank and Beijing Bank facing fines exceeding 3.8 million yuan and 3.6 million yuan respectively [12] Group 5: Investment Outlook for 2026 - The investment logic for bank stocks is expected to evolve towards value reassessment, with a focus on performance growth and compliance levels becoming critical for individual stock performance [19] - The banking sector is anticipated to transition from a "growth weak cycle" to a "reform deep water zone," suggesting a dual strategy of holding stable, high-dividend large banks while selectively investing in high-potential regional banks [18][19] - The average price-to-book ratio for the banking sector was approximately 0.73, indicating a structural recovery, with Agricultural Bank exceeding 1.0, while others remained below this threshold [13]

资产规模保持较快增长。公司 2025 年末资产总额 3.63 万亿元，较年初增长 16.1%，保持较快的扩张速度。其中年末贷款总额 1.73 万亿元，较年初增长 17.4%；存款总额 2.02 万亿元，较年初增长 10.3%，增速相对较低，但活期 存款新增占比 高达 71%。公司 2025 年末归属于普通股股东的净资产 2225 亿 元，较年初增长 6.8%。年末核心一级资本充足率 9.34%，较年初下降 0.50 个百分点。 营收利润增速基本平稳，ROE 继续回落。公司 2025 年实现营业收入 720 亿元， 同比增长 8.0%，增速较前三季度略降 0.3 个百分点；2025 年实现归母净利 润 293 亿元，同比增长 8.1%，增速较前三季度略降 0.3 个百分点。其中，公 司 2025 年实现利息净收入 532 亿元，同比增长 10.8%，增速较前三季度略降 1.0 个百分点；全年实现手续费净收入 61 亿元，同比增长 30.7%，增速较前 三季度提高 1.4 个百分点；全年实现其他非息收入 127 亿元，同比下降 9.0%， 增速与前三季度持平。公司 2025 年实现加权平均净资产收益率 13.1% ...

今日关注 申购提示：今日1只新股申购。 财政部：2026年财政总体支出力度"只增不减"。 财政部发布多项政策，提高个人消费贷贴息标准，实施民间投资专项担保计划。 2．财政部副部长廖岷在国新办新闻发布会上表示，财政部门将继续实施更加积极的财政政策。概括起 来就是"总量增加、结构更优、效益更好、动能更强"。2026年财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量将保持 必要水平，确保总体支出力度只增不减。 3．1月20日，财政部官网同时公布五项财政金融协同促内需一揽子政策，分别从加力提振消费、扩大民 间投资两个方面，推动扩大有效需求。 4．财政部副部长廖岷在国新办新闻发布会上表示，本次优化调整个人消费贷款贴息政策，将信用卡账 单分期业务纳入到了贴息范围，取消现有政策当中对一些消费领域的限制。新政策意味着只要是消费贷 款都可以享受贴息。 5．财政部综合司司长李先忠在国新办新闻发布会上表示，近期财政部、税务总局发布公告，明确自 2026年4月1日起取消光伏等产品出口退税，并分两年取消电子产品出口退税。此次出口退税政策调整， 有利于促进资源高效利用，也有利于引导产业结构合理调整，综合整治"内卷式"无序竞争，推动经济高 质量发展。 6． ...

2026 年 1 月 21 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】解构日元贬值与日股大涨之谜——《海外非美经济探究》系列第五篇 我们认为日元贬值原因为美日利差收窄持续性不强、国际收支结构失衡、日本经济恢 复存在不确定性。日本股市的上涨，则受到了新一轮财政扩张、通胀带动企业盈利恢 复、全球 AI 扩张周期的影响。二者的分歧，体现了不同资产对日本经济的结构性矛 盾定价的差异化。展望 2026 年，日股有望维持高位。日元上半年继续承压，下半年 或有反转的可能性。日债收益率曲线上半年熊陡，下半年熊平。 宁波银行发布 2025 年业绩快报，实现营业收入 719.7 亿，同比增长 8%，实现归母 净利润 293.3 亿，同比增长 8.1%。量增价稳对利息收入形成有力支撑，营收及盈利 增速维持高位稳定。展望 2026 年，预估盈利仍有望保持较好水平。维持 2025-27 年 EPS 预测为 4.44/4.82/5.27 元，维持"买入"评级。 【有色】民爆业绩提供稳定支撑，氢氧化锂龙头受益于锂价上行周期——雅化集团 （002497.SZ）动态跟踪报告(增持) 储能需求提振预期，2026 年供需格局有望向好。 ...

今日关注 申购提示：今日1只新股申购。 财政部：2026年财政总体支出力度"只增不减"。 财政部发布多项政策，提高个人消费贷贴息标准，实施民间投资专项担保计划。 国新办今日举行新闻发布会，介绍2025年工业和信息化发展成效。 4．财政部副部长廖岷在国新办新闻发布会上表示，本次优化调整个人消费贷款贴息政策，将信 用卡账单分期业务纳入到了贴息范围，取消现有政策当中对一些消费领域的限制。新政策意味着 只要是消费贷款都可以享受贴息。 5．财政部综合司司长李先忠在国新办新闻发布会上表示，近期财政部、税务总局发布公告，明 确自2026年4月1日起取消光伏等产品出口退税，并分两年取消电子产品出口退税。此次出口退税 政策调整，有利于促进资源高效利用，也有利于引导产业结构合理调整，综合整治"内卷式"无序 竞争，推动经济高质量发展。 6．财政部等部门发布关于延续实施养老、托育、家政等社区家庭服务业税费优惠政策的公告， 为社区提供养老、托育、家政等服务的机构，按照规定享受税费优惠政策。 7．上海期货交易所发布通知，自2026年1月22日（星期四）收盘结算时起，调整铜、黄金等期货 合约交易保证金比例和涨跌停板幅度。 8．1月20日2 ...

2、 随着雪球大V"金浤"因"抢帽子"操纵市场被重罚，一批雪球投资大V被相继封号。1月20日，雪球发 布三则涉资本市场违规信息专项整治行动处置公告，22个大V账号被永久封禁，其中包括被称为"雪球 带货三大天王"的"杭州新城路"、"轮回666"和"福禄娃爷爷"。 3、 格陵兰危机与财政压力担忧引发全球债市抛售潮。日本长期国债遭遇史诗级抛售，30年期和40年期 国债收益率单日涨逾25个基点，40年期国债收益率升至4%上方，为近30多年来首次。美国10年期、20 年期、30年期国债收益率均上涨8个基点左右。丹麦养老基金AkademikerPension计划"清仓"美国国债， 称美国"不再是优质信用主体"。该基金截至2025年底持仓美债约1亿美元。 1、 国务院副总理何立峰出席世界经济论坛2026年年会并发表致辞。何立峰还应约分别与美国财长贝森 特、英国财政大臣里夫斯举行中美经贸磋商机制和中英经济财金对话机制双方牵头人会谈，就中美、中 英经贸领域相关问题交换意见。 2、 国家发改委有关负责人介绍，2026年宏观政策要把发力点放在做强国内大循环上，全方位扩大国内 需求。其中，将优化"两新"政策的支持范围和补贴标准；研究 ...

2、 随着雪球大V"金浤"因"抢帽子"操纵市场被重罚，一批雪球投资大V被相继封号。 1月20日，雪球发布三则涉资本市场违规信息专项整治行动处置公 告，22个大V账号被永久封禁，其中包括被称为"雪球带货三大天王"的"杭州新城路"、"轮回666"和"福禄娃爷爷"。 3、 格陵兰危机与财政压力担忧引发全球债市抛售潮。 日本长期国债遭遇史诗级抛售，30年期和40年期国债收益率单日涨逾25个基点，40年期国债收益率 升至4%上方，为近30多年来首次。美国10年期、20年期、30年期国债收益率均上涨8个基点左右。丹麦养老基金AkademikerPension计划"清仓"美国国债， 称美国"不再是优质信用主体"。该基金截至2025年底持仓美债约1亿美元。 1、 国务院副总理何立峰出席世界经济论坛2026年年会并发表致辞。何立峰还应约分别与美国财长贝森特、英国财政大臣里夫斯举行中美经贸磋商机制和 中英经济财金对话机制双方牵头人会谈，就中美、中英经贸领域相关问题交换意见。 2、 国家发改委有关负责人介绍，2026年宏观政策要把发力点放在做强国内大循环上，全方位扩大国内需求。 其中，将优化"两新"政策的支持范围和补贴 标准；研究 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ningbo Bank reported a steady growth in its financial performance for the year 2025, with a focus on serving the real economy and optimizing its business structure, while maintaining asset quality and risk management. Financial Data and Indicators - In 2025, the company achieved operating income of 71.968 billion RMB, an increase of 8.01% year-on-year - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 29.333 billion RMB, up 8.13% year-on-year - Net interest income reached 53.161 billion RMB, growing by 10.77% year-on-year - Net fee and commission income was 6.085 billion RMB, reflecting a significant increase of 30.72% year-on-year [2][3] Business Performance and Financial Condition - The company focused on enhancing its service capabilities and adapting its business model to meet the needs of the real economy, resulting in solid growth in operating performance - Total loans and advances amounted to 1,733.313 billion RMB, an increase of 257.25 billion RMB, or 17.43%, compared to the beginning of the year [3][4] Service to the Real Economy - The company adhered to national financial policies and increased credit support, serving 746,100 corporate clients by the end of 2025, an increase of 89,600 clients from the beginning of the year - The international settlement volume reached 319.893 billion USD, a year-on-year growth of 12.36% [4] Business Structure Optimization - Total customer deposits reached 2,024.883 billion RMB, with an increase of 188.538 billion RMB, where demand deposits accounted for 70.84% of new deposits - The cost of liabilities decreased, with the interest rate on deposits falling by 44 basis points year-on-year to 1.42% [5] Asset Quality and Risk Management - The company maintained a stable asset quality with a non-performing loan balance of 13.147 billion RMB and a non-performing loan ratio of 0.76%, unchanged from the previous year - The provision coverage ratio stood at 373.16%, indicating a sufficient level of provisions [6]