Core Insights - The appreciation of the Renminbi has led to a 1.03% increase in the benefiting sectors compared to the previous trading day, with ST Chenming leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4029.5, up 0.73%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13476.52, up 1.78% [1] Sector Performance - ST Chenming (000488) closed at 2.25, with a gain of 5.14% and a trading volume of 578,700 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 129 million [1] - Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630) closed at 5.40, up 3.65%, with a trading volume of 3,796,000 shares and a transaction value of 204.5 million [1] - Shanying International (600567) closed at 1.86, gaining 2.76%, with a trading volume of 2,988,000 shares and a transaction value of 550 million [1] - China National Duty-Free (601888) closed at 90.52, up 1.47%, with a trading volume of 854,000 shares and a transaction value of 7.624 billion [1] Capital Flow - The net inflow of main funds in the Renminbi appreciation benefiting sector was 41.75 million, while retail funds saw a net inflow of 64.44 million [2] - The net outflow of speculative funds was 106 million [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630) had a main fund net inflow of 1.29 billion, but speculative and retail funds saw net outflows of 55.30 million and 73.20 million respectively [3] - China National Duty-Free (601888) experienced a main fund net inflow of 64.16 million, while retail funds had a net outflow of 103 million [3] - ST Chenming (000488) had a significant main fund net inflow of 38.29 million, but both speculative and retail funds experienced net outflows [3]

Core Viewpoint - The aviation and airport sector experienced a rise of 1.24% on November 13, with Huaxia Airlines leading the gains, while the overall market indices also showed positive performance [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4029.5, up 0.73%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13476.52, up 1.78% [1]. - Key stocks in the aviation and airport sector showed varying degrees of increase, with Huaxia Airlines rising by 3.19% to a closing price of 12.30 [1]. Group 2: Stock Performance - The following stocks in the aviation and airport sector had notable performances: - Huaxia Airlines: 12.30, +3.19%, volume 287,000 [1] - Xiamen Airport: 17.22, +2.32%, volume 141,500 [1] - Shanghai Airport: 34.55, +1.74%, volume 264,200 [1] - Spring Airlines: 59.82, +1.54%, volume 55,700 [1] - China National Aviation: 8.85, +1.26%, volume 560,500 [1] - Baiyun Airport: 10.33, +1.18%, volume 250,100 [1] - China Eastern Airlines: 5.32, +1.14%, volume 1,091,200 [1] - Southern Airlines: 7.32, +1.10%, volume 456,700 [1] - HNA Holding: 1.87, +1.08%, volume 7,282,400 [1] - Juneyao Airlines: 14.75, +0.55%, volume 216,000 [1]. Group 3: Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector saw a net outflow of 46.93 million yuan from institutional investors and a net outflow of 104 million yuan from speculative funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 151 million yuan [2]. - Detailed capital flow for specific stocks indicated that: - China Eastern Airlines had a net inflow of 62.69 million yuan from institutional investors [3]. - HNA Holding experienced a net outflow of 31.68 million yuan from speculative funds [3]. - Retail investors showed a net inflow of 22.73 million yuan into Juneyao Airlines [3].

Group 1: Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery sector is expected to benefit from anti-involution policies, with prices starting to rise since July 2025 due to government measures against low-price and disorderly competition [13][15][20] - In September 2025, major express companies reported a year-on-year increase in single ticket prices, indicating the initial success of the anti-involution policies [24][21] - The express delivery volume is projected to maintain good growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.6% from 2023 to 2028 [34][32] Group 2: Oil Transportation Industry - The average age of VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) ships reached a historical high of 13 years in August 2025, indicating a need for capacity renewal [52][51] - There is a significant gap between the number of new orders and the required capacity updates, with only 112 VLCCs expected to be delivered by 2029 against a potential scrapping of 319 older vessels [58][56] - Global oil production and consumption are expected to grow in the coming years, which may positively impact oil transportation demand [43][42] Group 3: Aviation Industry - The aviation sector is anticipated to enter a supply-demand resonance cycle, with a projected low growth rate in aircraft supply over the next eight years [71][73] - Most airlines are expected to see good growth in passenger numbers in 2025, with overall load factors remaining high [80][84] - Government policies aimed at promoting consumption and addressing competition in the aviation sector are expected to boost demand in 2026 [90][92]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The conference call primarily discusses the **airlines**, **tanker shipping**, and **logistics** sectors within the **Hong Kong/China Transportation** industry [1][2][3][72]. Airlines - **Bullish Outlook**: There is a bullish sentiment regarding airlines, driven by supply-side dynamics and recovery in business demand since May 2025, despite disruptions in June to August [2][7]. - **Investor Sentiment**: Investors are generally supportive of the recovery narrative, although some express concerns about the sustainability of peak-cycle earnings [7]. - **Valuation Concerns**: Chinese airlines are perceived as expensive based on EV multiples due to high debt levels, but they are cheaper compared to global peers in terms of market cap per fleet [7]. Tanker Shipping - **Cautious Optimism**: Investors are skeptical about the tanker shipping up-cycle, citing a long-standing narrative of supply tightness. However, recent restrictions on the 'dark fleet' and potential geopolitical developments (e.g., a Russia-Ukraine peace deal) could support a continued up-cycle [2][3]. - **Demand Dynamics**: The demand for legitimate tankers is expected to increase, which could positively impact the sector [2]. Logistics and Express Delivery - **Consolidation Challenges**: There are doubts about the feasibility of consolidation in the Chinese express delivery market due to past disappointments. However, leading players are gaining market share at the expense of smaller competitors [3]. - **Positive Sentiment for Key Players**: Investors are increasingly optimistic about **ZTO** and **YTO**, with expectations of strong profit growth for **J&T** in Southeast Asia, although valuation expansion may take time [3][10]. Financial Projections and Risks - **Valuation Methodology**: The report employs a DCF model with varying probabilities for different scenarios (25% bull, 65% base, 10% bear) for J&T, reflecting its strong growth momentum despite competition [10]. - **Key Assumptions**: The DCF for J&T assumes a WACC of 13.3% and a terminal growth rate of 3.5% [11]. For YTO, the assumptions include a WACC of 10.8% and a terminal growth rate of 2% [13]. - **Risks**: Potential risks include intensified price competition, regulatory challenges, and market share losses for smaller players [12][14][20]. Conclusion - The conference call highlights a cautiously optimistic outlook for the airlines and tanker shipping sectors, while the logistics industry faces consolidation challenges. Key players in the express delivery market are expected to perform well, but risks remain due to competition and regulatory environments.

Core Viewpoint - The event commemorating the "Two Airlines Uprising" highlights the historical significance of the Chinese aviation industry and its evolution from reliance on foreign aircraft to the development of domestic aircraft like the C919 [2][3][4] Group 1: Historical Significance - The "Two Airlines Uprising" occurred on November 9, 1949, when over 2,000 employees from the China National Aviation Corporation and Central Aviation Company flew 12 aircraft from Hong Kong to Beijing and Tianjin, laying a crucial foundation for China's civil aviation [2][3] - The C919 flight from Hong Kong to Tianjin on the same date serves as a symbolic connection to the past, emphasizing the continuity of patriotic spirit in the aviation sector [2][3] Group 2: Commemorative Activities - The "Two Airlines Uprising" exhibition hall, located at the former Zhang Guizhuang Airport, has opened to the public, showcasing 677 historical artifacts related to the uprising [2][3] - The exhibition aims to educate the public, especially the younger generation, about the development of China's civil aviation and instill a sense of patriotism [4] Group 3: Government and Industry Support - The Hong Kong government emphasizes the importance of promoting patriotism through soft and impactful methods, with plans for exhibitions related to the "Two Airlines Uprising" [3][4] - The C919's inaugural flight to Hong Kong marks a significant milestone, establishing Hong Kong as the first location outside mainland China to have regular flights for the domestic aircraft, highlighting its unique role in the internationalization of Chinese aviation [4]

本报记者 吴文婧 11月10日，中国商用飞机有限责任公司（以下简称"中国商飞"）一架C919飞机飞抵阿联酋迪拜阿勒马克图姆国际机场。据 悉，这架C919将参加11月17日至21日举行的2025迪拜航展，这是该飞机首次在中东地区公开亮相。 鹿客岛科技创始人兼CEO卢克林对《证券日报》记者表示："C919在中东地区首次公开亮相对国产大飞机产业发展具有重 要意义。C919历经多年研发，按国际通行适航标准研制，此次亮相是对其技术可靠性与先进性的国际检验。而且，中东是全球 航空业重要市场，在中东亮相还有利于国产大飞机后续获取国际订单、提升国际市场份额。" 国产大飞机产业化进程加速 据悉，C919是我国首款按照国际通行适航标准自行研制、具有自主知识产权的喷气式中程干线客机，已成为"中国制造"的 闪亮名片。 在日前国新办举办的新闻发布会上，科技部副部长龙腾介绍，C919实现从"首飞"到"首航"，再到"常态化商业运营"，是中 国航空工业发展的重要里程碑，目前累计获得国内外订单超过1000架。 中国南方航空股份有限公司（以下简称"南航"）发布的数据显示，截至目前，南航C919已执行过广州、杭州、上海等14个 航点，并在6条航线 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the airline industry is experiencing a significant rebound, with ticket prices turning positive since mid-September, indicating a strong demand despite the traditional off-peak season [1][7][13] - The passenger load factor reached a historical high of 86.3% in September, the highest since 2006, and has continued to rise into October, reflecting robust demand [1][20][21] - The growth in passenger numbers is resilient, with domestic flight volume growth below 1%, while cross-border travel demand is increasing significantly [1][25][26] Group 2 - The supply-demand fundamentals are now better than in 2024 and 2019, with a 10.3% increase in passenger turnover and a 13.2% increase in fleet size projected for 2024 compared to 2019 [8][32][34] - Structural improvements in demand are noted, particularly in business travel, which has returned to an expansionary phase, and cross-border travel demand is outpacing domestic growth [2][42][48] - The supply side is constrained by maintenance issues and low growth in new aircraft deliveries, with significant recalls affecting existing fleet availability [3][56][61] Group 3 - The report indicates that the industry is at a turning point regarding supply-demand-price dynamics, with high elasticity expected as ticket prices rise [4][10][80] - Cost reductions are anticipated due to declining oil prices, which have decreased by 11% year-on-year, positively impacting airline operating costs [6][10] - Investment recommendations include a focus on major airlines such as Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines, as well as low-cost carriers like Spring Airlines, which are expected to benefit from improved operational efficiencies [6][10][80]

11月9日16时许，一架身披五星红旗的国产飞机C919降落在天津滨海国际机场，并接受了民航界最高礼 仪"过水门"，机组成员下机后迎来鲜花和掌声。 为何此次飞行有如此高的礼遇？原来，11月9日是个不为多数人所知的特别的日子。76年前的这一天， 原中国航空公司和中央航空公司的2000多名爱国职工在香港发动爱国起义，两航首批12架飞机从香港启 德机场起飞，1架降落在北京西郊机场，11架抵达天津张贵庄机场，史称"两航起义"，毛泽东主席称其 为"一个有重大意义的爱国举动" 。 事实上，不仅仅是郝鑫感觉飞起来稳，多名乘客也表示，乘坐C919的感觉就是"稳"字当头，另外，对 比此前乘坐过的进口大飞机，C919的噪音更小。 据业内人士透露，噪音小与C919的发动机和其舱内的隔音材料有关。C919机舱内采用"超细航空级玻璃 棉"，这种航空级玻璃棉贴覆于机舱内，用于机舱内的隔音、隔热保温，隔音性能有助于飞机降低噪 音，提高飞机内部乘客的舒适性；同时，优良的隔热保温性能使飞机降低能耗和油耗，提高飞机的经济 性和国际市场竞争性。该材料隔热隔音性能比目前最先进的美国波音公司标准还要高。 此外，南都N视频记者发现，C919有着更多人性化 ...

Market Overview - The aviation and airport sector increased by 0.18% on November 12, with Juneyao Airlines leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4000.14, down 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13240.62, down 0.36% [1] Stock Performance - Juneyao Airlines (603885) closed at 14.67, up 2.88% with a trading volume of 330,300 shares and a turnover of 483 million yuan [1] - Shanghai Airport (600009) closed at 33.96, up 1.28% with a trading volume of 304,800 shares and a turnover of 1.041 billion yuan [1] - China Southern Airlines (600029) closed at 7.24, down 0.69% with a trading volume of 369,200 shares and a turnover of 26.9 million yuan [1][2] Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector experienced a net outflow of 90.94 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 72.62 million yuan [2] - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with institutional investors withdrawing funds while retail investors are actively buying [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - HNA Holding (600221) had a net inflow of 11.8 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 80.67 million yuan from retail investors [3] - China Eastern Airlines (600115) saw a net inflow of 9.36 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 22.33 million yuan [3] - Shenzhen Airport (000089) experienced a significant net outflow of 14.59 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net inflow of 12.94 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **hotel**, **airline**, and **duty-free** industries, highlighting their performance and future outlook post-National Day in 2025 [1][3][11]. Key Points and Arguments Hotel Industry - **Strong Performance Post-National Day**: The hotel sector showed robust performance after the National Day, driven by a recovery in business travel rather than solely relying on consumer wealth effects [1][3]. - **Positive Growth Indicators**: Five-star hotel Average Daily Rate (ADR) has stabilized, with occupancy rates improving, leading to a positive growth in September for the first time [1][5]. - **Institutional Holdings**: The hotel sector's institutional holding ratio is at a 15-year low, which, combined with improving data and valuation advantages, has led to a rebound in hotel stocks [1][6]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies like Jin Jiang and Shou Tour have low PE ratios for 2026, indicating potential investment value [1][6][8]. - **Expansion and New Products**: Shou Tour is expanding its standard stores and launching new products to enhance acceptance among franchisees and consumers [8]. - **Growth of Budget and Mid-range Hotels**: Jin Jiang and Huazhu are showing signs of improvement, with Jin Jiang's RevPAR showing a positive trend in October [5][9]. Airline Industry - **Recovery in Passenger Volume**: Overall passenger volume increased by 5.2% year-on-year from January to September 2025, with international routes showing a significant recovery [4][15]. - **High Load Factors**: The airline sector maintains high load factors, with expectations for continued improvement in ticket prices [13][15]. - **Airline Recommendations**: China Eastern Airlines is highlighted as a strong investment opportunity due to its rapid recovery and performance exceeding pre-pandemic levels [4][19]. - **Cost Pressures Eased**: Low oil prices and favorable exchange rates have alleviated cost pressures for airlines, contributing to improved profitability [18][21]. - **Future Pricing Trends**: Ticket prices are expected to improve in the fourth quarter, although a potential decline may occur post-Spring Festival due to weaker business demand [16][21]. Duty-Free Industry - **Sales Growth**: The duty-free sector has shown consistent sales growth, with Hainan's offshore duty-free sales achieving positive growth for the first time in 18 months [11][12]. - **Policy Optimizations**: Recent policy changes in Hainan are expected to gradually release demand, positively impacting revenue and profit recovery for the end of the year and into 2026 [12]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Sentiment**: There is a growing market interest in the travel-related sectors, with data indicating sustained performance beyond holiday effects [3]. - **Investment Focus**: The hotel and duty-free sectors are identified as new consumption hotspots driven by fundamental improvements, with upcoming meetings in December and March expected to provide further insights into consumer demand [22]. - **Airport Performance**: Airports like Shanghai and Baiyun are benefiting from increased air traffic, with significant year-on-year growth in passenger numbers [20][21]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the hotel, airline, and duty-free industries.