投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【生猪周报（LH)】 近月需求旺季不旺，远月产能去化支撑 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2026-01-26 谢威 从业资格证号：F03087820 投资咨询证号：Z0019508 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 02 PART TWO 生猪基本面数据 现货价格 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 生猪：近月需求旺季不旺，远月产能去化支撑 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | --- | - ...

1、2025年牧原实现商品猪出栏7798.1万头、销售金额1328.11亿元，养殖完全成本降至11.3元/公斤的行 业领先水平，这样的成绩为2026年发展奠定了怎样的基础？ 秦军：2025年，公司预计实现净利润151亿-161亿元，实现了较好的盈利与充裕的现金流。在此基础 上，公司持续降低负债总额与资产负债率，优化财务结构，提升发展质量，为2026年公司稳健运营提供 了坚实的保障。 2025年公司生猪养殖完全成本整体呈现下降趋势，全年平均成本在12元/kg左右，同比下降2元/kg，这 得益于公司此前在技术上的不断投入与管理上的持续创新。这一成果不仅验证了相关投入的有效性，也 进一步巩固了公司的成本优势，为2026年持续推进降本增效奠定了坚实基础。 2. 从"单一商品猪养殖"转向"商品猪+仔猪商业化销售"双轮驱动模式，2026年仔猪销售的目标规模与渠 道布局如何？预计将贡献多少利润增量？ 2026年，国家"十五五"规划正式启幕，新旧动能转换进入深水区，传统产业的科技化转型成为经济高质 量发展的核心议题。作为国民经济基础的农业，正经历从"规模扩张"向"质量效益"的深刻变革，生猪养 殖这一古老行业也迎来智能化、全球 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of the non-ferrous metals and oil sectors, driven by rising commodity prices and geopolitical tensions [1] - Spot gold has reached a historical high of $5080.60 per ounce, with a 2% increase, while spot silver briefly surpassed $108 per ounce, showing a daily increase of over 4.6% [1] - The cash flow index's focus on "strong cyclical resources" like non-ferrous metals and chemicals reflects its structural advantages and precise value in the market [1] Group 2 - The CSI All-Share Free Cash Flow Index (932365) has risen by 0.81%, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as silver non-ferrous (up 10.03%), Nanshan Aluminum (up 7.08%), and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (up 5.86%) [1] - The CSI All-Share Free Cash Flow ETF (512130) has increased by 1.84%, marking its sixth consecutive rise, with the latest price at 1.33 yuan [1] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI All-Share Free Cash Flow Index include China National Offshore Oil Corporation, SAIC Motor, and Gree Electric Appliances, collectively accounting for 53.78% of the index [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Sector**: China Consumer Sector - **Key Insights**: The sector shows signs of consumption recovery despite a near-term property market downturn. Valuation remains attractive, approximately 1 standard deviation below 10-year averages, indicating that a consumption recovery is not yet priced in [2][21]. Consumer Staples - **Baijiu**: Anticipated demand support for mid-end baijiu due to easing alcohol bans and private consumption growth. Companies are expected to accelerate channel transformations for sustainable EPS growth [3][8]. - **Beer**: Premiumization continues through product diversification and in-home channel expansion, despite on-trade softness. CR Beer expects low-single-digit volume growth in 2025, with Heineken volumes projected to grow by 20% YoY [3][8]. - **Dairy**: Liquid milk sales are expected to recover modestly in 2026, driven by marketing and innovation, despite a weak 2025. Fresh milk shows resilience with double-digit growth [3][8]. - **Freshly-Made Beverages (FMB)**: Guming is expected to maintain steady SSSG in 2026 through category expansion and dine-in growth, despite the phase-out of delivery subsidies [3][8][19]. - **Condiments**: Sequentially improving demand is expected, with Haitian focusing on multi-product categories and Jonjee anticipating a cleaner 2026 after a weak 4Q25 [3][8]. Consumer Discretionary - **Home Appliances**: Companies like Midea and Haier expect higher overseas growth compared to domestic markets in 2026. Strategies include price hikes and operational efficiencies [4][10]. - **Jewelry**: Brands with unique designs may consolidate post-VAT reform. Laopu is expected to achieve strong sales growth due to increased focus on value-added services [4][10]. - **Restaurants**: Intense competition leads to divergent strategies, with some companies lowering prices while others upgrade offerings. DPC Dash is on track for expansion despite market uncertainties [4][10]. Stock Implications - **Most Preferred Stocks**: CR Beer, Guming, MIXUE, China Foods, YUM China, among others, are highlighted as preferred investments due to their growth potential [5]. - **Least Preferred Stocks**: Companies like Swellfun, Nongfu, and Gree are noted as less favorable due to various challenges [5]. Key Risks - Risks include demand recovery uncertainties, cost inflation or deflation, and changes in the competitive landscape. These factors could significantly impact the consumer sector's performance [21]. Additional Insights - **Pet Food**: The industry is shifting towards online sales, with over 85% of sales occurring digitally. Competition is intensifying, pushing brands towards innovation and product differentiation [13]. - **Snack Sector**: Rapid category diversification and channel restructuring are creating growth opportunities, particularly through snack discounters [9][12]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and projections from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the China consumer sector.

生猪：如何看待春节前后猪价 20260125 摘要 春节后生猪供给压力缓解，价格预计在 5.5-6 元/公斤区间波动，二次育 肥推迟出栏时间是主因，但整体消费疲软态势未变。 产能去化缓慢，疫情和亏损是关键因素。当前仔猪成本虽有下降，但规 模厂仍能维持运营，去产能条件尚不充分，未来或面临重大疾病风险。 部分养殖企业通过养大猪替代小型养殖户的市场需求，尤其在冬季消费 旺季，满足特定地区对大体重猪的需求。 2026 年生猪出栏量预计增加 5%，主要为商品猪出栏增加，部分中小企 业逆势扩张是主因，大型企业产能调控效果有限。 原料价格存在不确定性，玉米和豆粕等饲料原料价格可能反弹，将对依 赖低价原料的养殖业造成成本压力。 仔猪数量在 2026 年 10 月达到顶峰后小幅下降，预计 2027 年 3 月或 4 月仔猪现货价格触底，未来供应量或将减少。 屠宰场盈利困难，龙头企业通过低价策略和养殖端补贴占据市场份额， 中小屠宰场难以竞争，行业洗牌或将加速。 Q&A 近期生猪价格走势如何？春节前后的价格预期是什么？ 近期生猪价格大致维持在 13 元/公斤左右，并出现震荡。春节前一周，由于消 费高峰尚未到来，预计价格将偏弱，可能 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agricultural sector [6] Core Insights - Corn prices continue to rise, with a current spot price of 2,375 CNY/ton as of January 23, 2026, reflecting a weekly increase of 0.46%. The report is optimistic about the recovery of planting sentiment in the agricultural sector [4][10] - The report highlights a trend of increasing investment in the agricultural sector, with institutional investors increasing their holdings in companies like Wens Foodstuffs and Zhongxing Junye, while reducing positions in others like Noposion and New Hope [3] - The pet industry is also highlighted, with significant trends noted in pet fashion and pet-human cohabitation, indicating a growing investment in this sector. Major pet exhibitions are scheduled for March 2026, which are expected to catalyze new product launches [5] Summary by Sections Agricultural Sector - The agricultural sector's fund holdings are valued at 46.896 billion CNY, which is 0.14 percentage points below the standard industry allocation ratio, marking five consecutive quarters of underperformance [3] - The report anticipates stable to rising prices for corn and other grains, which is expected to benefit seed companies that adhere to a "quality for price" strategy [4] Livestock and Poultry - The report notes fluctuations in pig prices, with a current price of 13.1 CNY/kg, reflecting a 2.92% weekly increase. However, the annual comparison shows a decrease of 15.19% [10] - The average self-breeding and self-raising profit in the industry is reported at 43.4 CNY per head, showing a significant increase of 486.6% week-on-week [10] Pet Industry - The report emphasizes the increasing consumer investment in pets, with major exhibitions in South and North China expected to draw significant attention and new product launches from leading brands [5] - Recommended stocks in the pet sector include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Ruipubio, all of which are expected to benefit from the growing market [6] Key Company Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies, with several companies rated as "Overweight," including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [39]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The report highlights the strengthening of pork prices as the breeding stock decreases to 35.61 million heads by the end of December, indicating a bullish trend in the market [1][2] - The report emphasizes the importance of the seed industry revitalization action, which has made significant progress in enhancing seed security and promoting domestic seed usage [1][12] - The commercialization of genetically modified crops is expected to accelerate, contributing to higher self-sufficiency rates in key varieties [1][12] Summary by Sections Planting Industry - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has reported progress in the seed industry revitalization action, with a focus on policy support, funding, and institutional guarantees [1][12] - Key companies recommended for investment include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development, as well as leading seed companies like Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech [1][12] Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is reported at 12.99 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 2.27% [2][13] - The breeding stock of sows is at 39.61 million heads, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% [2][13] - Recommended companies in the pig farming sector include Lihua Co., Muyuan Foods, and Shuanghui Development [5][13] Feed and Veterinary - The average price of pig feed is 2.65 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.38% [52] - Companies in the feed sector such as Haida Group and veterinary companies like Jinhai Biological and Zhongmu Co. are expected to benefit [5][13]

Core Viewpoint - Beijing Zhongke Kelan New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. has completed a multi-million angel round financing to enhance product development, expand production capacity, and commercialize its biodegradable plastics [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Zhongke Kelan was established in February 2024 and is incubated from the National Engineering Center for Engineering and Ecological Plastics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences [2]. - The founder, Dr. Ji Junhui, has over ten years of experience in biodegradable materials research, with the company's core technology stemming from a national key project on controllable degradable plastics [2]. Group 2: Product Development - The company has developed PDA (Polyesters Bio-Degradable in All Nature Environment), the world's first fully biodegradable plastic that can decompose in various natural environments, with customizable degradation periods ranging from 3 days to 10 years [2]. - PDA is applicable in multiple sectors, including electronic information, daily chemicals, cosmetics, and medical packaging, as well as emerging markets like marine ranching and 3D printing [2]. Group 3: Production Capacity and Partnerships - Zhongke Kelan has established a pilot production line in Hainan with a capacity for ton-level stable supply, and initial products have been used in Huawei's ocean observation equipment and other applications [3]. - A strategic partnership with the government of Wuhai City, Inner Mongolia, aims to leverage local resources for a thousand-ton pilot production line, expected to achieve stable production by mid-2026 [3]. - The company currently has over a thousand tons of orders on hand, anticipating significant revenue growth this year [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the industry, indicating an expectation for the sector to outperform the overall market [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights an increase in demand during the peak season, leading to sustained strong prices for pork. It anticipates a new cycle of prosperity in the livestock industry driven by the resonance between meat and dairy sectors [3][4]. - The report suggests that major meat protein prices (pork, chicken, beef, eggs, and aquatic products) are expected to bottom out and rise in 2026. The efficiency differences among pig farming enterprises will be crucial in determining profitability levels for the year [3][4]. - The report emphasizes that the meat chicken industry, after a prolonged downturn of 3-4 years, is likely to gradually emerge from its cyclical bottom due to improvements in demand [3][4]. - The beef and raw milk sectors are projected to reach a supply-demand balance after ongoing capacity reductions, marking a turning point for the cycle [3][4]. - The edible mushroom sector is expected to see significant improvements in industry structure after 2-3 years of capacity clearance, with early investments in the second growth curve beginning to yield results [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index rose by 0.4%, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.6%. The top five gainers included Fujian Jinsen (15.7%), Hainan Rubber (15.5%), and Wancheng Group (14.3) [3][4]. - The report recommends focusing on growth opportunities and suggests stocks such as Muyuan Foods, Dekang Animal Husbandry, and Wen's Foodstuffs [3][4]. Livestock Sector - In the beef sector, prices for beef cattle, calves, and beef have seen slight increases, indicating the beginning of a long-term upward trend. The average price for fattening bulls was 25.66 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.25% [3][4]. - The report notes that the supply of beef cattle is expected to decrease, with a projected output of 51.33 million heads in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [3][4]. Swine Farming - The report indicates that the price of live pigs remains strong due to seasonal stocking demands, with the average price for external three-line pigs at 13.03 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.66% [3][4]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the price of weaned piglets, which reached an average of 352 CNY/head, up by 45 CNY/head week-on-week [3][4]. Poultry Farming - The white feather broiler market is characterized by an oversupply, leading to a decline in chick prices. The average price for white feather broiler chicks was 1.87 CNY/chick, down 28.6% week-on-week [3][4]. - The report suggests that the continued oversupply of white chickens will be a key theme in 2026, with a focus on the development and long-term value of leading enterprises [3][4].

Core Insights - The report indicates a rebound in pig prices, with the average price for lean pigs at 13.09 CNY/kg as of January 23, reflecting a 4.8% week-on-week increase, although down 17.6% year-on-year. The industry is returning to profitability, with self-breeding operations reportedly earning about 40 CNY per head [2][10] - The report highlights a significant increase in the price of piglets, which rose to 353 CNY/head, a 7% increase week-on-week, suggesting a positive outlook among farmers for pig prices in the second half of the year [2][10] - The report recommends major breeding companies such as Wens Foodstuffs Group and Muyuan Foods, while also highlighting potential in smaller firms like Tiankang Biological and Shennong Group [2][10] Livestock Farming - The average price of white feather chickens is reported at 3.7 CNY/jin, down 1.3% week-on-week, with supply concerns due to avian influenza affecting imports from France [2][10] - The dairy sector shows a slight increase in fresh milk prices to 3.03 CNY/kg, up 0.3% week-on-week, while some regions report prices rebounding to 3.3-3.4 CNY/kg [2][11] - The report notes that the supply of beef is expected to tighten due to new import tariffs, which may lead to increased domestic beef prices and improved earnings for companies like Yurun Food and Modern Farming [2][11] Feed and Animal Health - The report indicates a continued upward trend in aquaculture prices, driven by supply-demand imbalances and seasonal factors, which may benefit feed demand in the short term [2][12] - The feed industry remains competitive, with leading companies expected to gain market share due to their comprehensive advantages [2][12] - The report suggests that leading animal health companies are expanding into pet healthcare, with growth potential in pet vaccines and pharmaceuticals [2][12] Agricultural Sector Performance - The agricultural sector outperformed the market by 1 percentage point, with the sector rising by 0.4% while the CSI 300 index fell by 0.6% [2][18] - Sub-sectors such as planting, agricultural processing, and fisheries showed notable gains, with increases of 4.1%, 4.0%, and 2.9% respectively [2][18] Agricultural Product Prices - The report tracks significant price movements in agricultural products, noting a 4.8% increase in pig prices and a 1.3% decrease in chicken prices [2][20] - The report also highlights the current prices of corn at 2375 CNY/ton, up 0.5% week-on-week, and soybean meal at 3194 CNY/ton, down 0.1% [2][44][53] - The report indicates that the price of wheat has also increased by 0.5% to 2527 CNY/ton [2][55]