数据来源:全国各大区合理分布的约200个采集点,包括但不限于 酒企指定经销商、社会经销商、主流电商平台和零售网点等 原始数据:过去24个小时中各点位经手的真实成交终端零售价 sma 打开新浪财经APP 搜索 酒价内参 Q 新浪财经客户端 Sina Finance Mobile Version | 中国知名白酒大单品 | | 市场真实成交终端价 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | i茅台飞天茅台(2026)售价1499精品茅台售价2299 | | | 品名/规格 | | 今日价格(元) | 较昨日(元) | | 53度/500ml | 贵州茅台酒(飞天) | 1759/瓶 | -2元 | | 53度/500ml | 贵州茅台酒(精品) | 2411/瓶 | 7 TG | | 52度/500ml | 五粮液普五八代 | 818/瓶 | -2元 | | 青花汾20 | 53度/500ml | 392/瓶 | | | 100 | 国窖1573 | | | | | 篇/ 52度/500ml | AN /ONA | - 1075 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

新浪财经"酒价内参"过去24小时收集的数据显示，中国白酒市场十大单品的终端零售均价在2月25日呈 明显回调态势，春节假期涨幅领先的品种卖压较重。如果十大单品各取一瓶整体打包售卖，今日总售价 为9221元，较昨日大幅下跌37元，创近一周以来新低。整体价格在前期高位整理后出现技术性回落，预 计市场短期将继续承压。 今日十大单品八跌两涨，市场情绪明显谨慎。上涨方面，精品茅台逆势上行，环比上涨7元/瓶，成为今 日全场的主要支撑力量；洋河梦之蓝M6+小幅上涨3元/瓶，延续窄幅波动态势。下跌方面，国窖1573跌 幅居前，下调18元/瓶，价格重心明显下移，此前该酒品刚经历五连阳；古井贡古20下跌13元/瓶，跟随 回落；习酒君品回调5元/瓶。水晶剑南春下跌3元/瓶，飞天茅台、五粮液普五八代、青花汾20及青花郎 均小幅回落2元/瓶。 | 五粮液普五八代 | 818/瓶 | -2 T | | --- | --- | --- | | 52度/500ml | | | | 青花汾20 53度/500ml | 392/瓶 | -2元 | | 国窖1573 52度/500ml | 906/瓶 | -18元 | | 洋河梦之蓝M6+ 52度 ...

新浪财经"酒价内参"过去24小时收集的数据显示，中国白酒市场十大单品的终端零售均价在2月25日呈 明显回调态势，春节假期涨幅领先的品种卖压较重。如果十大单品各取一瓶整体打包售卖，今日总售价 为9221元，较昨日大幅下跌37元，创近一周以来新低。整体价格在前期高位整理后出现技术性回落，预 计市场短期将继续承压。 今日十大单品八跌两涨，市场情绪明显谨慎。上涨方面，精品茅台逆势上行，环比上涨7元/瓶，成为今 日全场的主要支撑力量；洋河梦之蓝M6+小幅上涨3元/瓶，延续窄幅波动态势。下跌方面，国窖1573跌 幅居前，下调18元/瓶，价格重心明显下移，此前该酒品刚经历五连阳；古井贡古20下跌13元/瓶，跟随 回落；习酒君品回调5元/瓶。水晶剑南春下跌3元/瓶，飞天茅台、五粮液普五八代、青花汾20及青花郎 均小幅回落2元/瓶。 "酒价内参"的每日数据源自全国各大区均有合理分布的约200个采集点，包括但不限于酒企的指定经销 商、社会经销商、电商平台和零售网点等，原始取样数据为过去24个小时中各点位经手的真实成交终端 零售价格，力求为社会各界提供一份关于知名白酒市场价格的客观、真实、科学、全程可追溯的数据。 随着元旦官方i茅 ...

Investment Rating - The food and beverage industry is rated as stable for 2025 and 2026 [1] Core Insights - The food and beverage industry in China includes various sub-industries such as agriculture, food processing, and beverage manufacturing, closely linked to economic development, population structure, and consumer preferences. Despite ongoing economic pressures and weak consumer demand, the industry continues to grow, although revenue growth rates are declining and profitability is weakening [1][6] - The agricultural sector shows a steady increase in grain planting area and production, with major crops like rice, wheat, and corn maintaining a balance between supply and demand. However, some crop prices are under pressure due to supply-demand dynamics and international trade conditions [24][25] - The food manufacturing sector is experiencing stable growth, with overall profitability remaining flat. The industry is characterized by increasing fixed asset investments and a slight increase in total assets [52][53] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The food and beverage industry has a total asset value of 8.42 trillion yuan at the end of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.59%. The industry’s revenue for 2024 is 9.07 trillion yuan, showing a slight decline of 0.20% year-on-year [7][11] - By the end of September 2025, the industry’s total assets increased to 8.61 trillion yuan, with a revenue of 6.71 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.75% [7][11] 2. Agricultural Sector - The agricultural sector's total output value reached 162,787.5 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7%. The grain planting area for 2024 and 2025 is projected to be 11,931.9 million hectares and 11,940.9 million hectares, respectively [24][25] - Grain production is expected to increase, with total grain output for 2024 and 2025 estimated at 70.65 million tons and 71.49 million tons, respectively [27] 3. Feed Industry - The feed industry is experiencing growth in production, influenced by the recovery of the livestock sector. The total industrial feed production for 2024 is 31,503.1 million tons, showing a year-on-year decline of 2.1% [45] - The feed prices are expected to remain low due to fluctuations in raw material prices and weak downstream demand [49] 4. Food Manufacturing - The food manufacturing sector continues to grow, with total assets reaching 2.41 trillion yuan by September 2025, reflecting a 4% increase year-on-year. The revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 is 1.63 trillion yuan, with a slight decrease in profit margins [52][53] 5. Livestock Industry - The livestock sector is under pressure, with pork prices gradually declining. The production of beef is increasing, while sheep meat production is decreasing due to weak demand [56][58] - The overall production of meat is expected to grow, with pork production for 2024 and 2025 estimated at 5,706.03 million tons and 5,938 million tons, respectively [58]

Core Viewpoint - The joint issuance of the "Guidance on Quality Improvement and Upgrading of the Brewing Industry (2026-2030)" marks the beginning of a high-quality development path for China's liquor industry, focusing on enhancing raw material supply, technological innovation, and optimizing industry structure [1] Group 1: Upstream Development - The guidance emphasizes the shift from a "procurement mindset" to a "planting mindset" in the liquor industry, highlighting the importance of strengthening raw material supply and cultivation bases [2] - Key tasks include promoting the cultivation of specific brewing raw materials such as sorghum, barley, and wine grapes, and encouraging collaboration between universities, research institutions, and enterprises for high-yield, flavor-rich varieties [2][3] - The construction of raw material bases will focus on quality precision and customized varieties, leveraging biotechnology to meet diverse flavor needs [3] Group 2: Intelligent Manufacturing - The guidance prioritizes the "promotion of intelligent transformation," indicating that smart brewing will enhance traditional techniques rather than replace them [4] - Support for AI applications in various production processes aims to improve efficiency and quality control, with initiatives for smart manufacturing solutions and infrastructure development [4][5] - Companies like Wuliangye and Gujing Gongjiu are already implementing advanced technologies, such as 5G networks and AI decision-making models, to enhance production efficiency and accuracy [5] Group 3: Downstream Channel Innovation - The guidance encourages innovation in sales models, promoting a shift from traditional wholesale to brand agency and chain operations, as well as the development of new retail formats like community e-commerce and live streaming [7] - The liquor industry's immediate retail market is projected to exceed 50 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of over 35%, indicating a significant shift in consumer purchasing behavior towards instant delivery [7] - Companies are increasingly adopting direct-to-consumer strategies through live streaming and community marketing, reducing reliance on traditional distribution networks [8] Group 4: Cultural and Cross-Industry Integration - The guidance supports the integration of brewing culture into various lifestyle products, indicating a broader cultural value of liquor beyond just consumption [8] - The emphasis on "brewing industry +" suggests a focus on cross-industry collaborations and the creation of original intellectual properties [8]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on China Consumer Staples: Spirits and Dairy Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the spirits and dairy sectors in China, particularly in the Hunan province, highlighting the performance of major brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Mengniu. Spirits Sector Moutai - Feitian Moutai's retail sales volume increased by over 20% year-on-year during the Chinese New Year (CNY) period, exceeding expectations despite shipment controls on non-standard SKUs [1][9] - Moutai 1935 showed mild growth, outperforming other products in the Moutai series [1][9] - The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai rose to approximately Rmb1,700, with channel inventory remaining stable at around 0.5 months [1][9] - The expert anticipates that Moutai could bottom out around mid-2026 if retail sales momentum remains strong [2][6] Wuliangye - Common Wuliangye experienced mid-single-digit percentage retail volume growth in early February, gaining market share from Guojiao 1573 due to enhanced affordability [1][9] - The effective ex-factory price for Common Wuliangye decreased to around Rmb810, with expectations of further reductions [1][9] - The company achieved a 40% prepayment target by the end of CNY, although this pace is slightly slower than the previous year [1][9] Luzhou Laojiao - Guojiao 1573's retail volume dropped by approximately 30% during the CNY period, facing challenges in maintaining wholesale price stability [1][8] - Luzhou Laojiao is under pressure to stabilize prices amid declining demand [2][6] Other Brands - Brands like Fen Wine, Yanghe, Jiugui, and Shede saw broad-based sales declines of 15-20% [1][14] - Fen Wine's Qinghua series experienced a low-teens percentage decline, while Bofen remained slightly positive [1][14] Dairy Sector - Both Yili and Mengniu reported positive sell-in shipments during January, but holiday sell-through saw a slight decline due to weakening gifting demand [1][12] - Premium products like Satine and Deluxe outperformed basic white milk, indicating a shift in consumer preference [1][12] - Mengniu's sales decline narrowed to low-single digits compared to low-teens last year, aided by a lower comparison base [1][12] - The expert remains cautious about 2026 full-year sell-in targets, suggesting a more realistic outlook of flat to -5% for Yili and +6% for Mengniu [1][12] Beverages Sector - Nongfu's small-pack water and sugar-free tea registered high-single-digit percentage sell-through growth, while large-pack volume doubled due to strong promotions [1][13] - CR Beverages and Wahaha experienced declines in water sales, indicating competitive pressures [1][13] - Eastroc is on track to meet its 20% sales growth target, with energy drinks growing just under 15% [1][16] Inventory and Prepayment Insights - Moutai and Wuliangye maintain low channel inventories of 0.5 to 1 month, while other upper-mid-end brands face over 2.5 months of inventory [1][11] - Prepayment progress for various brands is lagging behind last year, with Wuliangye and Laojiao showing slower prepayment paces [1][14] Conclusion - The spirits sector shows a divergence in performance, with Moutai leading and Wuliangye following, while other brands face significant challenges. The dairy sector is experiencing a shift towards premium products, and the beverage sector is consolidating with strong growth from Nongfu. Overall, cautious optimism is noted for the upcoming periods, with varying recovery timelines across brands.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Chinese spirits industry**, particularly during the **2026 Lunar New Year (LNY)** period, highlighting retail sales trends and brand performances. Key Insights and Arguments 1. **LNY Consumption Sentiment**: - Pax mobility during the LNY holiday increased by approximately **9% year-over-year (yoy)**, with a total of **5.3 billion** trips recorded during the Chunyun window from February 2 to 20 [1] - Strong homecoming flows led to robust on-premise activity, with daily average sales of key retail and catering enterprises rising by **10.6% yoy** over the first two holiday days and **8.6% yoy** in the first four days [1] 2. **Retail Trends**: - Overall spirits retail demand declined by **10-15% yoy**, influenced by a high base from 2025, but the trend stabilized compared to the decline seen during the Mid-Autumn festivals [2] - Super-premium brands like **Moutai** and **Wuliangye** showed resilience, with **Feitian** sell-through up by **10-20%+ yoy** and **Common Wuliangye** recovering to near 2024 LNY volumes [2] 3. **Brand Performance**: - **39-degree Wuliangye** achieved double-digit retail sales growth, while **Fen wine's Bofen** and regional brands like **Yingji's Dongcang 6** performed well due to banquet trends [2] - Mass-market SKUs priced under **RMB 300** per bottle outperformed, particularly those under **RMB 100**, which saw positive retail growth [2] 4. **Pricing Trends**: - Wholesale prices for super-premium brands trended stronger, with **Feitian original case** wholesale price increasing by **RMB 160-195/bottle** year-to-date [2] - Significant pricing pressure was observed for SKUs priced between **RMB 600-800**, with **Junpin Xijiu** wholesale price dropping below **RMB 600** [2] 5. **Post-LNY Factors to Monitor**: - The trajectory of wholesale prices into the Lantern Festival slack period, especially for super-premium SKUs [2] - Retail channel replenishment orders over the next two weeks as holiday sell-through data becomes clearer [2] - Distributor prepayment progress, which is currently slower than the pace seen in 2025 LNY, except for Moutai, which is at **35-40%** [2] Additional Important Insights 1. **Regional Performance**: - Regions like **Sichuan** and **Henan** showed relative resilience, with retail sales down approximately **10%**, driven by super-premium brands amid banquet and gifting demand recovery [7] - **Anhui** mass-market products under **RMB 200** performed solidly due to banquet demand, with a **15% yoy decline**, which was better than pre-LNY expectations [7] 2. **Consumption Scenarios**: - Banquet and family-gathering occasions drove incremental volume, while gifting remained strong only for top-tier brands [8] - Commercial and government-related consumption remained at a structural low, putting sustained pressure on mid-tier brands [8] 3. **Wholesale Price Summary**: - Original case **Feitian Moutai** wholesale price increased by **RMB 10** to **RMB 1,700**, while **Common Wuliangye** and **Guojiao 1573** prices remained stable [9] 4. **Market Dynamics**: - The spirits market is experiencing a **dumbbell trend**, favoring super-premium and mass-market segments while the upper-mid segment remains weak [2] 5. **Valuation and Risks**: - The report outlines various valuation methodologies and key risks for major companies in the spirits sector, including potential regulatory changes and competition dynamics [45] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and trends within the Chinese spirits industry during the 2026 Lunar New Year period.

行业点评报告 | 食品饮料 证券研究报告 行业评级 推荐（维持） 报告日期 2026 年 02 月 24 日 相关研究 【兴证食饮】餐饮链克危寻机，同时关 注食品春节备货-2026.01.21 【兴证食饮】保健品行业：赛道长青， 新消费重构增长逻辑-2026.01.12 分析师：沈昊 S0190525010006 shenhao@xyzq.com.cn 投资要点： 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/3 ⚫ 春节动销符合预期，高端突出，大众价格带表现稳健。根据渠道反馈，春节白酒动销普 遍下滑 10-20%，边际改善，整体表现符合此前预期。分区域看，经济基础、饮酒氛围 好的河南、四川、华东等市场反馈动销下滑约 10%左右，山东、安徽等市场下滑幅度约 20%。分场景看，受禁酒令影响商务宴请依旧承压，礼赠需求有所恢复，自饮及中低端 宴席需求相对稳健。春节期间，不同价格带动销表现有所分化，高端表现突出，i 茅台 上线普飞刺激需求，100-200 元大众价格带动销平稳，而次高端价格带承压较大、春节 期间动销下滑约 20%左右。 ⚫ 茅台市场化改革初步显效，基本面表现好于预期。茅台以消费者为中心，积极推进市场 化转型，强化 ...

随着三部门联合印发《酿酒产业提质升级指导意见（2026—2030年）》（以下简称《指导意见》），中国酒业为期五年的高质量发展路径正式开启。2月24 日，北京商报记者从工业和信息化部官网获悉，工业和信息化部、人力资源社会保障部、市场监管总局三部门联合印发《指导意见》，从增强原料供给保障 能力、提升产业科技创新水平、调整优化产业结构、转变产业发展方式、发展新模式新业态、加强品牌文化赋能、完善产业支撑体系七大方面勾勒出21 项"重点任务"。当新技术、新理念、新模式从文本走向实践，中国酿酒产业正站在一个从"传统酿造"向"现代智造"跨越的历史关口。 筑牢上游"第一车间" 在酿造行业，品质的起点不在车间，而在田间。《指导意见》明确提出，丰富酿酒专用原料、强化原料种植基地建设以及完善联农带农机制，标志着酿酒产 业对上游产业链的掌控正在从"采购思维"转向"种植思维"。 《指导意见》显示，加强高粱、大麦、酿酒葡萄、酿酒青稞等特色酿酒原料品种培育推广，支持适宜酿酒的新原料种类拓展。鼓励高校、科研机构与企业联 合攻关，培育转化率高、风味物质富集、抗逆性强的专用原料品种。加强对本土酿酒微生物菌种的筛选与开发应用，提升生产菌株与加工工 ...

Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has released guidelines for the wine and tea industries aimed at quality improvement and upgrading from 2026 to 2030, emphasizing the importance of these traditional sectors in economic growth and cultural promotion [2] Group 1: Wine Industry Guidelines - By 2028, the wine industry aims to optimize its layout, enhance the role of production areas and parks, and cultivate over three traditional wine production areas with annual revenues exceeding 100 billion yuan, and more than ten characteristic wine parks with revenues over 10 billion yuan [1] - The guidelines highlight the need to adapt to consumer trends such as personalization, health, and fashion, encouraging the development of craft beers, specialty wines, and ready-to-drink products [4] - The focus on product innovation is seen as essential to address the issue of excess inventory in the wine industry, with new product categories expected to create real consumption scenarios and expand market opportunities [5] Group 2: Tea Industry Guidelines - The tea industry aims to cultivate over five tea industry clusters with annual revenues exceeding 10 billion yuan by 2028, along with several leading enterprises with revenues over 5 billion yuan [1] - The guidelines stress the importance of adapting to trends in youth consumption, promoting refined product development, and expanding tea applications into sectors like home goods, cosmetics, and health [3] - The tea industry is projected to achieve a total scale of 1.5 trillion yuan by 2030, with a focus on digitalization and green development [1] Group 3: Smart Transformation - Both industries are encouraged to accelerate smart technology integration, with the tea industry focusing on digital transformation across all processes, while the wine industry aims to enhance smart applications in procurement, production, and quality management [6] - Smart transformation is expected to help the wine industry reduce costs and improve efficiency, particularly during periods of price pressure, by optimizing production based on sales data [6][7] - Leading companies in the wine sector are already investing in digital initiatives, such as Moutai's establishment of a 2 billion yuan digital fund to enhance AI and big data capabilities [7]