2026 年 01 月 21 日 叶传动/分别 邵翼 A0230524120001 shaoyi@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 本期投资后示: O 永达汽车：豪车经销商业绩触底反弹确定性强，现金流与股息率具备吸引力。公司作为 宝马渠道核心豪车经销商，依托主机厂盈利扶持，经营周期底部复苏信号明确。一方 面，宝马等主机厂保障经销商新车毛利，叠加行业低效门店出清，BBA 等豪车车企亏损 见底；另一方面，新能源业务贡献增量，新车毛利率可观，2025年渠道上量叠加华为系 品牌起量，该业务盈利空间广阔。公司 2025 上半年净现金流超 11 亿元,配置吸引力突 出；后续宝马车型周期下半年落地，业绩弹性拐点将进一步明确，整体观点偏乐观。 相关研究 《整车出海、机器人预期强化;同时关注 业绩确定性白马 -- 2026/1/12- 2026/1/18 汽车周报》 2026/01/19 证券分析师 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 联系人 天成、福达 周一刻钟，大事快评（W141） 看好 O 天准科技：核心业务高增确定性强，内存短缺引发行业成本压力预警。公 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, indicating an "Overweight" rating, suggesting that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [2][12]. Core Insights - Yongda Automotive shows strong recovery signals with cash flow and dividend yield attractiveness, benefiting from support from manufacturers like BMW, and is expected to see significant performance improvements in 2025 [3]. - Tianzhun Technology's core business is experiencing robust growth, but the industry faces cost pressures due to memory shortages, particularly in high-end DDR5 memory [4]. - Longsheng Technology has significant untapped potential in the commercial aerospace sector, with a solid market position in satellite components and a clear growth trajectory in its robotics business [5]. - Yinlun Technology is positioned to benefit from the growth of data center liquid cooling solutions, with expected significant market elasticity by 2027 [5]. - Fuda Co., Ltd. has issued convertible bonds, indicating positive signals for business certainty and valuation support, with a focus on expanding production capacity [6]. - Tiancai Control is strategically positioned in the low-altitude economy, with ongoing efforts to secure key clients and certifications, which could lead to substantial market share gains [6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Yongda Automotive - The company is a key dealer for BMW, showing strong recovery signals with a projected net cash flow exceeding 1.1 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, supported by manufacturer subsidies and a reduction in inefficient dealerships [3]. Tianzhun Technology - The company focuses on intelligent driving and embodied intelligence, with strong growth momentum, but faces challenges from memory supply shortages impacting vehicle production costs [4]. Longsheng Technology - The company has significant growth potential in the commercial aerospace sector, with a strong foothold in satellite components and a clear growth strategy in its robotics business [5]. Yinlun Technology - The company is focusing on data center liquid cooling modules, with expectations for significant market growth by 2027, while also being a key supplier in the robotics sector [5]. Fuda Co., Ltd. - The issuance of convertible bonds at a conversion price of 17.5 yuan signals positive business prospects, with a focus on expanding production capacity and addressing market concerns regarding client structure [6]. Tiancai Control - The company is well-positioned in the low-altitude economy, actively working on client acquisition and technical certifications, which could lead to significant market share in the future [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the optimistic outlook of fund managers on the technology sector, particularly in artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and robotics, as key investment directions for the upcoming years [1][3][12] - Fund managers are emphasizing the importance of risk management in the technology sector, which is characterized by high growth potential and volatility, advocating for diversified investment strategies [2][21] Group 2 - Fund manager Ren Jie focuses on global cloud computing investments, with a notable performance of the fund achieving a unit net value growth rate of 233.29% in 2025, ranking first among active equity funds [3][4] - The fund's latest quarterly report indicates a decrease in stock positions, with a stock market value proportion of 78.76%, down by 13 percentage points from the previous quarter [3][4] - The top ten holdings include companies like Shengyi Technology and Zhongji Xuchuang, with significant annual growth rates of 205.82% and 396.38% respectively [3][4] Group 3 - Fund manager Li Jin expresses a strong interest in artificial intelligence computing-related assets, focusing on sectors with the best growth potential, including technology, new energy, and pharmaceuticals [8][12] - The fund's top three holdings are Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Technology, and Huamao Technology, with substantial increases in positions for companies like Dongshan Precision and Industrial Fulian [9][10] Group 4 - Fund manager Yan Siqian emphasizes the investment opportunities in manufacturing and low-carbon technologies, highlighting the importance of intelligent manufacturing and technological innovation for sustainable development [13][15] - The fund's top holdings include Wuzhou Xinchun and Zhenyu Technology, with significant increases in positions for companies like Beite Technology and Sili Technology [14][15] Group 5 - Fund manager Feng Ludan notes that the artificial intelligence industry is in the early stages of forming a bubble, suggesting a cautious approach to investment while monitoring technological advancements and business model validations [16][21] - The fund's latest report shows a stock position of 86.04%, with significant increases in holdings for companies like Huadian Technology and Tencent Holdings [18][19]

【 导读 】 一批绩优基金四季报披露 中国基金报记者 曹雯璟 随着公募四季报陆续披露，一些绩优基金经理的调仓换股"跃然纸上"。 去年四季度，不少绩优基金聚焦人工智能、云计算、机器人等投资方向。多位基金经理表 示，展望2026年，对资本市场整体环境保持相对乐观，科技产业仍将是结构性行情的重要方 向。 也有基金经理进行提示风险，科技板块具有高成长性和高波动率，应该先讲风险，再谈收 益，建议进行分散投资。 任桀：继续重点布局全球云计算产业 重点关注通信领域中的光通信及PCB方向 1月21日，由任桀管理的永赢科技智选披露四季报。该基金成立于2024年10月底，在2025 年度取得233.29%的单位净值增长率，不仅在主动权益基金业绩榜单上名列第一，更是摘得 年度公募基金全市场冠军，且领先优势明显。 最新季报显示，截至2025年四季度末，该基金规模达154.68亿元，环比增长34.26%。该基 金四季度股票仓位有所下降，从持仓情况看，其股票市值占基金总资产比例为78.76%，较三 季度末减少了13个百分点。 任桀在季报中表示，去年四季度，该基金继续聚焦全球云计算产业投资，在三季度判断的基 础上（基于2027年新技术的兑 ...

Core Insights - The demand for satellite internet construction is urgent, driven by the rigid application needs in communication, navigation, and remote sensing, with a low completion rate of satellite constellations in China [1] - Space computing is leading to new growth opportunities in satellite demand, with significant advancements in satellite-based computing systems [2] - Solar wings are the only efficient and long-term energy supply solution for near-Earth commercial space, constituting about 12%-24% of satellite value [3] Group 1: Satellite Internet Demand - There is a strong subjective and objective demand for satellite internet construction, with advantages such as wide coverage, strong disaster resistance, and rapid deployment [1] - The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) has established principles for satellite frequency and orbit usage, emphasizing the urgency of satellite internet development in China due to limited low-Earth orbit resources [1] Group 2: Space Computing Advancements - The traditional "ground computing" model is evolving to a "space computing" model to address issues of data latency and processing cycles, with significant projects like Starcloud-1 and SpaceX's Starlink V3 planned for future deployment [2] Group 3: Solar Wing Technology - Solar wings are critical components of satellite energy systems, with increasing surface areas leading to enhanced power supply capabilities [3] - The transition from rigid to flexible solar wings allows for larger deployment areas and improved power output, making them suitable for high-power and multi-satellite launch scenarios [4] Group 4: Technological Differences Between China and the US - The US favors low-cost silicon solutions due to its rocket capabilities, while China is exploring perovskite batteries for higher power-to-weight ratios, aiming to maximize payload space in single launches [5] - Perovskite batteries are expected to become the next mainstream technology for solar wings in China, offering lower costs and higher efficiency [5]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The demand for satellite internet networking is urgent, and space computing opens new growth opportunities. The construction of satellite internet networks is driven by strong demand due to the advantages of wide coverage, strong disaster resistance, and rapid deployment. The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) has established principles for satellite frequency and orbit usage, leading to a competitive race for low Earth orbit resources. The construction and launch of satellite constellations in China are accelerating, with a significant gap compared to the US [4][16]. - Space computing is leading to increased demand for satellites. The traditional model of "ground computing" is evolving to "space computing," with satellites equipped with AI chips and edge computing modules to process data in orbit, significantly reducing transmission delays and processing times. Major companies are investing in space computing infrastructure, which is expected to drive the demand for satellites [17][19]. - Solar wings are the only efficient and long-term energy supply solution for near-Earth commercial space. Solar wings account for approximately 12%-24% of the satellite's value, and their area is continuously increasing, which enhances the overall power supply capacity of satellites. The transition from rigid to flexible solar wings is a key trend, with different technological routes being adopted in China and the US [4][28][38]. Summary by Sections Satellite Internet Networking - The urgent need for satellite internet networking is driven by the rapid release of rigid application demands in communication, navigation, and remote sensing. The construction of satellite internet networks is becoming increasingly critical due to limited low Earth orbit resources and the competitive landscape [11][16]. - The ITU's "first come, first served" principle has intensified the competition for satellite orbital resources, with China lagging in the completion rate of its satellite constellations compared to the US [16][18]. Space Computing - Space computing is transforming satellite demand by embedding AI capabilities into satellite systems, allowing for in-orbit data processing and reducing the need for ground-based data transmission. This shift is expected to significantly enhance the capabilities and applications of satellites [19][22]. Solar Wings - Solar wings are essential for providing continuous power to satellites, with their value accounting for a significant portion of the satellite's overall worth. The area of solar wings is increasing, which is expected to enhance the power supply capabilities of satellites [28][30]. - The transition from rigid to flexible solar wings allows for greater power generation efficiency and is particularly suited for high-power and multi-satellite launch scenarios. The flexible solar wings can achieve a higher power-to-weight ratio and better space utilization [38][45]. Technology Routes - There are notable differences in the solar wing battery technology routes between China and the US. The US primarily uses silicon solar cells due to their lower costs and established supply chains, while China is exploring gallium arsenide cells for their higher power-to-weight ratios and efficiency [51][62]. - Gallium arsenide cells are being actively explored for cost reduction, and perovskite cells are emerging as a potential next-generation solution for solar wings due to their low cost and high efficiency [65][69].

Group 1: Commercial Aerospace Industry - The commercial aerospace industry is on an upward trend, with a positive outlook for future market performance[5] - Key focus areas include stable or potentially increasing value in manufacturing and launch sectors, as well as communication terminal components like baseband and RF chips[22] - Significant growth expected in satellite constellations, with G60 planning to launch 1,296 satellites by the end of 2027 and 15,000 by 2030, while GW plans to launch an average of 1,800 satellites annually post-2030[18] Group 2: Space Photovoltaic Equipment - New technologies such as heterojunction and perovskite are accelerating advancements in space photovoltaic applications, providing new demand scenarios[37] - The global supply landscape may change due to emerging applications, creating new incremental demand for equipment companies[37] - P-type HJT batteries are identified as the optimal choice for space photovoltaic technology due to their lightweight, high power density, and resistance to extreme environments[30] Group 3: Wind Power Sector - Goldwind Technology is a leading global wind power manufacturer, with a projected revenue of CNY 566.99 billion in 2024, reflecting a 12.37% year-on-year growth[49] - Taisheng Wind Power is expanding into commercial aerospace, with plans to start rocket storage tank production by mid-2026[54] Group 4: AI and AR Glasses - Meta's AI glasses are expected to double production capacity, driving market growth and enhancing consumer demand for high-end optical products[5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses an upcoming investment research seminar focused on the automotive and AI sectors, organized by Guotai Junan Securities, highlighting the importance of these industries in current market trends [1][2]. Group 1: Event Details - The seminar will take place on January 20, 2026, at Guotai Junan's Lujiazui flagship store in Shanghai, featuring a full-day schedule [3]. - The event includes a series of expert talks, starting with a welcome address by the Vice President of the Research and Institutional Business Committee, Lu Ying [5]. - Notable speakers include a professor from Tongji University, experts in intelligent driving detection, and representatives from various automotive companies [5]. Group 2: Participating Companies - The seminar will feature a range of companies, including Altec, Beite Technology, Hengbo Co., Huayi Technology, and Junsheng Electronics, among others [5]. - Additional companies listed for participation include Lotus, Leap Motor, and Ningbo Huaxiang, indicating a diverse representation from the automotive sector [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced an overall increase of 0.7% from January 11 to January 17, with significant developments in the smart driving sector, including strategic partnerships and advancements in autonomous vehicle technology [1][9]. - The report highlights that China's automotive production is projected to reach 34.53 million units and sales to hit 34.4 million units in 2025, marking a historical high and maintaining its position as the world's largest automotive market [26]. - The report emphasizes the growing importance of electric vehicles, with projections indicating that over 50% of new car sales will be electric or hybrid by 2025 [26]. Market Performance Overview - The automotive sector's performance was mixed, with the automotive services segment showing the highest weekly increase of 3.4%, while motorcycle and passenger vehicle segments experienced declines of 2.0% and 1.7%, respectively [2][13]. - Individual stocks within the automotive sector saw significant fluctuations, with notable gainers including Aikelan (+40.5%) and Jiaoyun Shares (+39.3%), while Tianpu Shares (-25.3%) and Yueling Shares (-15.4%) faced substantial losses [3][17]. Industry Dynamics - Key partnerships in the smart driving field were established, such as the collaboration between Lantu and Huawei's subsidiary, focusing on the development of intelligent driving and cockpit technologies [9][28]. - The report notes that Uber is set to launch a customized autonomous taxi service in San Francisco, marking its entry into the autonomous ride-hailing market [29]. - The report also mentions that Xpeng plans to establish a localized supply chain team in Europe and ASEAN markets to enhance operational efficiency and support local production [29]. Future Projections - The report forecasts a slight increase in domestic automotive sales to 34.75 million units in 2026, reflecting a 1% growth from the previous year [26]. - The report indicates that the Chinese automotive industry is expected to maintain its competitive edge globally, with a significant portion of sales driven by the domestic market [25][26].

Core Insights - The report from Guolian Minsheng Securities highlights the transformation in the automotive industry driven by smart electric vehicles and global expansion, indicating a positive outlook for the supply chain of domestic and new energy vehicle manufacturers, as well as the growth of the smart and robotics sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Outlook - By 2026, the acceleration of smart and global trends is expected to lead to significant growth in humanoid robots, with the domestic wholesale vehicle sales projected to reach 30.3 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.0% [2]. - The automotive parts sector's revenue is anticipated to grow by 8.3% year-on-year, driven by the increase in sales of domestic brands and the impact of vehicle replacement policies [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The competitive landscape is being reshaped by the smart electric transformation, with a focus on high-quality customers from domestic brands and new energy vehicle manufacturers [3]. - The preferred investment tracks are identified as those with large market potential and favorable competitive dynamics [3]. Group 3: Customer Dynamics - Domestic manufacturers with significant sales growth, such as Geely and BYD, are favored, while the global expansion of Chinese automotive parts is supported by increasing production capacity and technological advantages [4]. Group 4: Product Dynamics - The trend towards smart driving is accelerating, with expectations for high-level autonomous driving to penetrate the mass market by 2026, driven by policy support and technological advancements [5]. - Humanoid robots are entering a production phase in 2026, with major tech companies leading the charge, and the industry is expected to shift from conceptual themes to long-term growth [5]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the smart and new energy vehicle supply chain, highlighting specific companies in smart driving, smart cockpit, and tire sectors, as well as robotics-related firms [6].