电力设备新能源 2H25 展望 20250613 摘要 锂电产业链排产超预期，国内重卡商用车上半年同比增长约 190%，乘 用车终端需求韧性增强，欧洲市场恢复超预期增长超 20%，新能源车出 口强劲，对锂电总需求形成支撑。 储能行业 2025 年下半年发展积极，国内独立储能需求快速增长，海外 市场美国发货恢复，非美地区需求高涨，头部电池厂储能排产饱和，美 国大而美法案落地支撑储能需求。 美国大而美法案延续储能补贴至 2033 年，限制外国敏感实体材料援助 比例，取消技术授权上限，有望推动主链估值修复，加速锂电板块北塔 修复。 电池环节公司二季度业绩环比向上，头部厂商经营性业绩良好，已获美 国储能和动力订单及技术授权，东南亚产能逐步释放，美国市场逻辑增 强。 零部件环节中报业绩预期强劲，中熔电气二季度利润超预期，受行业景 气度及高盈利产品放量影响，激励熔断器有望应用于新能源车领域，并 拓展海外市场。 Q&A 2025 年下半年锂电板块的市场预期和实际情况如何？ 当前锂电板块的市场预期与实际情况存在显著反差。尽管受国家补贴退坡及 136 号文取消新能源强制配储影响，市场对三季度国内需求预期较弱，认为七 八月份锂电 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the AIDC power equipment and grid industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The global AI computing load is expected to grow significantly, with new AI computing loads projected at 9.7/15.9/20.2/22.3/23.4/24.6 GW from 2025 to 2030. This translates to a demand for AIDC power equipment of 29/48/60/67/70/74 GW, with an average annual growth rate of 20% [5][13] - The market potential for dry-type transformers, medium and low voltage switchgear, UPS, HVDC, and solid-state transformers is estimated to reach 85/341/41/380/239 billion yuan by 2030 [5][12] - The domestic data center industry is expected to see increased capital expenditure from major cloud providers, with 2025 anticipated to be a pivotal year for AIDC construction [5][18] Summary by Sections AIDC Power Equipment - The AIDC power equipment sector has shown a diverse range of products, with major global players like Vertiv, Eaton, and Schneider Electric having established strong product lines and solutions [5] - Domestic companies are gaining competitive advantages in various segments, with leading firms gradually building their solution-providing capabilities [5] - The recent performance of the AIDC power equipment sector has been mixed, with notable declines in backup diesel power sources and lead-acid batteries [5][24] Grid Industry - The grid sector has seen significant investment growth, with national grid engineering investment reaching 632 billion yuan in May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 33.3% [31][32] - The bidding results for high-voltage equipment have shown a strong performance, with a total bid amount of 211.89 billion yuan in July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 38.1% [64] - The grid industry is expected to benefit from the maturation of new business models such as electricity trading and virtual power plants, with a focus on high-voltage orders and deliveries in the second half of 2025 [5][58]

2025 年 07 月 12 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 《电力设备行业周报：工信部召开光伏企业座谈 会，海风政策催化不断落地（推荐）*电力设备*李 航，邱迪，王刚，严语韬，李昂》——2025-07-06 《人形机器人行业周报：湖北省人形机器人产业投 资母基金设立，步科发布第四代无框力矩电机及中 空驱动器（推荐）*电力设备*李航，邱迪，李昂， 李铭全》——2025-07-05 《电力设备行业周报：抢装支撑风电 Q2 业绩，锂 电产业链持续推进固态电池布局（推荐）*电力设 备*李航，邱迪，王刚，李铭全，严语韬，李昂》 ——2025-06-28 《人形机器人行业周报：浙江荣泰拟参股金力传 动，银河通用完成 11 亿元融资（推荐）*电力设备 *李航，邱迪，李铭全，李昂》——2025-06-28 | 研究所： | | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 李航 S0350521120006 | | | lih11@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 邱迪 S0350522010002 | | | qiud@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 王刚 S03505240200 ...

Group 1: Photovoltaic Silicon Material Industry - The photovoltaic silicon material industry is expected to accelerate capacity consolidation, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizing the need for high-quality development in the solar industry [1] - By 2027, the industry is projected to enter a stable development phase, with significant advantages in the silicon material segment due to differences in capacity costs and financial strength among companies [1] - Key companies to watch include GCL-Poly Energy, Xinte Energy, Tongwei Co., and TBEA [1] Group 2: Solid-State Battery Industry - The solid-state battery industry is witnessing continuous advancements, with equipment from Winbond Technology successfully delivered to major domestic clients [2] - Material production is ramping up, with significant capacity in oxide electrolytes and expectations for sulfide electrolytes to achieve ton-level shipments by 2025 [2] - Companies of interest in this sector include Xiamen Tungsten, Tianqi Lithium, and others involved in the solid-state battery supply chain [2] Group 3: Offshore Wind Power Development - The central government is promoting the orderly development of offshore wind power, with a focus on enhancing the marine economy and encouraging private investment [3] - Goldwind Technology has secured over 7.7GW of international orders for 2024, with significant revenue growth reported for its international subsidiary [3] - Key players in the wind power sector include Goldwind Technology, Oriental Cable, and Dajin Heavy Industry [3] Group 4: Data Center Investment - Global data center investments are accelerating, with Amazon planning to invest AUD 20 billion (approximately USD 13.1 billion) in Australia and SK Telecom collaborating with Amazon Web Services for a significant data center project in South Korea [4] - The deployment of NVIDIA's GB300 AI systems is underway, indicating a growing demand for AI computing resources [4] - Companies to monitor in the AIDC power equipment sector include Jinpan Technology, Xinte Electric, and others [4] Group 5: Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and investment ratings for several companies, with Goldwind Technology rated "Outperform" and projected to have an EPS of 1.28 in 2025 [5] - Jinpan Technology and other companies also received "Outperform" ratings, indicating positive market sentiment [5] Group 6: Industry Performance Overview - The electric power equipment sector outperformed the market in June, with a 6.68% increase compared to a 2.5% rise in the CSI 300 index [13] - The sector's PE ratio at the end of June was 30.3, reflecting a slight recovery in valuations [13] - The report highlights that the electric power equipment industry has shown strong performance across various sub-sectors, including lithium battery materials and wind power [23]

Group 1: Public Utilities and Environmental Protection - The report emphasizes the dual trends of high cleanliness on the generation side and high electrification on the consumption side as key developments in the power system, with the grid serving as a crucial bridge between the two [5][6] - The review of the ultra-high voltage (UHV) construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan indicates that progress has been below expectations, highlighting the need to address terminal demand to achieve goals [6][7] - The outlook for the distribution network by 2030 suggests that recent policy reforms will lead to more diverse distribution network forms, enhancing renewable energy consumption and advancing distribution network development [8][9] Group 2: Metal New Materials - Antai Technology - Antai Technology's business structure is based on a "2+3+4" system, focusing on core industries and emerging sectors, with steady growth in traditional business and significant potential in new areas like special powders and nuclear fusion [10][11] - The company reported a revenue of 7.573 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 7.50% year-on-year, but a net profit increase of 49.26% to 372 million yuan, indicating a positive trend in operational efficiency [11][12] - The emerging business sectors are expected to see rapid growth, particularly in special powders, amorphous materials, and controllable nuclear fusion, driven by high industry demand [12][14]

Macro Strategy - The report indicates that the US non-farm payrolls for June exceeded expectations, leading to a delay in interest rate cut expectations to September. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 6.89 basis points to 4.346% during the week [1][15][17] - The ISM services PMI returned above the expansion line, reflecting strong economic data, while the unemployment rate decreased, contributing to a positive market sentiment [1][15][17] - The signing of Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB) increased the debt ceiling by $5 trillion to $41 trillion, which may lead to a "buy the rumor, sell the news" trading pattern [1][15][17] Fixed Income - In the week of June 30 to July 4, 12 green bonds were issued in the interbank and exchange markets, totaling approximately 34.961 billion yuan, an increase of 3.531 billion yuan from the previous week [4] - The secondary market saw a total trading volume of green bonds amounting to 56.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.3 billion yuan from the previous week [4] Industry Analysis Robotics and Automation - The report highlights that the human-like robot sector is entering a year of mass production, with supply chain adjustments and component innovations being crucial. Tesla's Musk has set a production target of 5,000 to 10,000 units for the year [7][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of component innovations such as dexterous hands and lightweight materials in enhancing robot capabilities [7][8] Insurance Industry - The insurance sector is expected to see improvements on both the liability and asset sides, with low valuations and low holdings providing a balanced risk-reward profile. The estimated valuation for the insurance sector is between 0.61-0.96 times PEV and 0.98-2.21 times PB, indicating historical lows [9] REITs - The report discusses the potential of REITs in a low-interest-rate environment, highlighting the importance of policy support and structural optimization to enhance investment value. The diversification of asset types is expected to accelerate, with new assets like data centers and wind power emerging [10] Engineering Machinery - The domestic engineering machinery market is at the beginning of an upward cycle, with a projected demand growth of 0-3% for the year. The report notes that the export market remains strong, contributing to high industry sentiment [11] Unmanned Forklift Industry - The report suggests that the unmanned forklift sector is poised for rapid growth driven by AI technology and smart logistics. It recommends investing in leading companies in the smart forklift space [12] Consumer Services - The analysis of consumer spending in China indicates that the overall consumption rate is low, with both service and goods consumption needing improvement. The service consumption rate in China was 21.1% in 2019, compared to an average of 28.4% across 43 countries [20][21]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable growth outlook for the Chinese power equipment export market, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.5% from 2024 to 2029 [8][25]. Core Insights - The global demand for power equipment is driven by the need for grid upgrades and the integration of renewable energy sources, with over 130 countries committing to carbon neutrality, leading to a surge in renewable energy equipment demand [8][25]. - The Chinese power equipment industry has a comprehensive supply chain covering transformers, high-voltage switches, smart meters, and generators, enabling it to provide complete solutions [3][25]. - The report highlights that the export market for Chinese power equipment is expected to reach $15.35 billion in 2024 and grow to $22.66 billion by 2029, with significant demand from regions such as Southeast Asia and Europe [10][25]. Market Overview - The report identifies key regions for power equipment exports, including Asia, Africa, Latin America, and Europe, with specific countries like Vietnam, India, and South Africa being highlighted as major markets [10][26]. - The demand for power equipment is expected to grow due to the aging infrastructure in developed countries, where over 50% of equipment has been in operation for more than 20 years [17][21]. - The report notes that the global renewable energy capacity is projected to increase significantly, with an expected addition of 3,700 GW from 2023 to 2028, and renewable energy is anticipated to account for over 42% of global electricity generation by 2028 [12][21]. Supply and Demand Analysis - On the demand side, the bottleneck in integrating renewable energy into existing grids is creating a need for substantial upgrades to transmission and distribution networks [7][12]. - The supply side indicates that leading overseas power equipment companies are facing production constraints and extended delivery times, providing an opportunity for Chinese companies to expand their exports [7][25]. - The report emphasizes that while overseas gross margins may fluctuate due to shipping costs and exchange rates, the overall profitability of overseas operations is better than that of the domestic market due to lower competition and cost advantages [8][25]. Segment Analysis - The report details the export market for different segments of power equipment, including generation equipment, transmission and distribution equipment, and renewable energy equipment, with specific growth rates and market sizes projected for each segment [26][27][29]. - It highlights that the transformer segment is particularly significant, accounting for 40.7% of the transmission and distribution equipment exports, with smart transformers and high-voltage switchgear expected to drive future growth [27][29]. - The renewable energy equipment segment is projected to see substantial growth, with exports expected to reach $2-2.5 billion in 2024, primarily in solar and wind energy sectors [29].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the successful implementation of a 35MW flexible IGBT hydrogen production power project by XJ Electric, marking it as the largest single-bid project in China for flexible IGBT hydrogen production this year [2] - The project is particularly suitable for green hydrogen production, especially in weak grid or off-grid hydrogen production systems [2] - The supplied equipment, HBL200 series IGBT hydrogen production power supply, has been validated through third-party testing and has been successfully applied in various projects, including those by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Lansi Group [2] Group 2 - The article mentions upcoming significant conferences organized by TrendBank, including the 2025 Long-term Energy Storage Industry Conference and the 2025 Green Hydrogen Industry Conference [1] - TrendBank is identified as a leading industry research and data company in China, providing services centered around data, research, consulting, and conferences to support business development [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the power equipment industry [4] Core Insights - The dual carbon strategy emphasizes the coexistence of highly clean power generation and highly electrified power consumption, with the grid serving as a crucial link between the two [4][7] - The development of ultra-high voltage (UHV) technology is essential for achieving carbon neutrality, but progress has been slower than expected [4][8] - The distribution network is critical for renewable energy consumption, yet investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period has fallen short of expectations [4][39] Summary by Sections Ultra-High Voltage (UHV) - UHV is a key component of the dual carbon strategy, with a planned investment of 380 billion yuan for over 30,000 kilometers of lines and a capacity of 340 million kilovolt-amperes [8] - The actual progress of UHV projects has been below expectations, with only eight projects likely to be completed by 2025 [16][18] - The shift towards flexible direct current technology is noted, as it allows for higher proportions of renewable energy to be transmitted [22][24] Distribution Network - The distribution network's role has evolved significantly post-dual carbon strategy, requiring upgrades to accommodate distributed energy resources [39][40] - Despite a consensus on the need for increased investment in the distribution network, actual investment levels have been lower than anticipated during the 14th Five-Year Plan [47] - The rapid growth of distributed solar power has led to challenges in the capacity of the distribution network, necessitating further enhancements [50]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview: UHV (Ultra High Voltage) Sector Key Points - The UHV sector has experienced a valuation drop to approximately 14-15 times, down from a peak of 30 times, significantly enhancing investment attractiveness [1][3][9] - Two major DC lines have been approved in 2025, with expectations for more approvals, including five DC lines, three AC lines, and several expansion and back-to-back projects, indicating a recovery in the industry [1][5] - The investment demand for UHV-related core equipment is projected to exceed 50 billion yuan in 2025, a notable increase from 30-40 billion yuan in the previous year, driven by the State Grid's planning during the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][6] Company Performance and Market Dynamics - Key companies such as XJ Electric, China XD Electric, and State Grid NARI have shown strong performance in the UHV sector, with XJ Electric benefiting significantly from its share in the investment of UHV lines [1][9][12] - China XD Electric has maintained a leading market share in the UHV equipment sector, with continuous improvement in profitability and successful breakthroughs in industrial clients [12][14] - NARI has excelled in UHV converter valves and related products, with a notable increase in market share and a stable growth rate in automation and industrial control sectors [15][16] Future Expectations - The UHV construction intensity is expected to maintain strong growth, with an anticipated addition of 4-5 DC lines and 2-3 AC lines annually during the 15th Five-Year Plan [8][17] - The current valuation of core companies in the UHV sector has decreased to around 15 times, making it an attractive investment opportunity compared to the previous year's high of 30 times [9][17] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies for investment focus include: - **XJ Electric**: Significant earnings elasticity in UHV construction, with a market share of 20-30% in valve and control protection equipment [9][13] - **Pinggao Group**: Strong performance in AC UHV products and reduced international business drag [11][13] - **China XD Electric**: Benefiting from domestic market demand and improved profitability [12][13] Additional Insights - The UHV sector is entering a period of intensive approvals for new lines, which is expected to enhance the performance of related companies [5][4] - The overall market structure remains stable, with leading companies like NARI, XJ Electric, and China XD Electric dominating the converter valve market [6][7]