Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services industry, expecting it to perform better than the benchmark index in the next 6-12 months [2][48]. Core Insights - The social services sector saw a 3.18% increase in the last two trading weeks, ranking 9th among 31 sectors in the Shenwan classification, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.26 percentage points [2][13]. - The competitive "involution" in the food delivery market has negatively impacted retail sales in June, but the summer travel market is expected to remain robust, indicating potential for growth in related industries [2][5]. - The report highlights the significant impact of visa-free policies on inbound tourism, with a notable increase in inbound travel expected during the summer season [5][41]. Market Review & Industry Dynamics - The social services sector's performance was strong, with sub-sectors like professional services (+7.53%) and tourism retail (+2.85%) leading the gains, while hotel and catering services saw a slight decline of -0.17% [17][20]. - The report notes that from July 1 to August 31, the national railway is expected to send 953 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of 5.8% [5][30]. - The inbound tourism market has shown a strong recovery, with 33.3 million inbound travelers in the first half of 2025, a 15.8% increase year-on-year [5][30]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong growth potential in the travel and related industries, including Huangshan Tourism, Lijiang Co., Songcheng Performance, and others [5][41]. - It also recommends monitoring hotel brands like Junting Hotel and Jinjiang Hotel, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in business travel [5][41]. - Companies involved in the recovery of the duty-free market, such as China Duty Free Group and Wangfujing, are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [5][41].

Group 1 - The tourism industry is experiencing a recovery, with domestic tourist numbers expected to reach 5.615 billion in 2024, an increase of 724 million from 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.8% [1] - Domestic tourism spending is projected to reach 5.75 trillion yuan in 2024, an increase of 840 billion yuan from 2023, reflecting a growth of 17.1% [1] - The average spending per trip in 2024 is estimated at 1,024 yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.0% [1] Group 2 - Consumer preferences are shifting, leading to changes in tourism themes, which presents both opportunities and challenges for tourism operators [2] - Non-traditional tourist destinations can attract large crowds quickly but face challenges in infrastructure, attractiveness, and repeat visitation [2][3] - Long-term visitors, such as families and artists, contribute significantly to the local tourism landscape, contrasting with the transient nature of typical tourists [3] Group 3 - The tourism user base is diversifying, with a shift from elite-focused travel to family-oriented leisure travel, as evidenced by the increase in family and parent-child trips [4] - Rural residents show a high willingness to travel, with 78% expressing interest in tourism, and their spending growth outpacing that of urban residents [6] - The demand for diverse pricing in tourism products is rising, with various destinations catering to different user groups [6] Group 4 - Successful tourism brands maintain their unique characteristics while offering a wide range of products to attract loyal customers [7] - The definition of tourism supply has evolved beyond natural and cultural attractions to include immersive experiences that create emotional connections with users [7][8] - Companies that transition from sightseeing to immersive experiences are more likely to succeed in the current tourism landscape [8] Group 5 - Key operational data from listed tourism companies shows that many are experiencing stagnant or negative revenue growth, while those focusing on leisure and vacation experiences are performing better [9] - The evolution of the tourism ecosystem indicates a shift from natural sightseeing to immersive experiences, with a focus on user engagement and experience time [8] Group 6 - The case of Japan's "MACHI*ASOBI" festival illustrates the effectiveness of strong marketing and differentiated immersive experiences in attracting tourists [11] - Creating immersive experiences requires breaking down self-perceptions and providing multi-sensory stimuli to engage users fully [12][14] - Successful tourism experiences often involve a high level of scene-setting and emotional engagement, as seen in events like concerts that drive additional spending [14]

行 业 及 产 业 社会服务 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 赵令伊 A0230518100003 zhaoly2@swsresearch.com 研究支持 杨光 A0230524100004 yangguang@swsresearch.com 联系人 杨光 (8621)23297818× yangguang@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 07 月 20 日 长期视角下，RWA 如何赋能文旅 革新？ 相关研究 《苏超体育赛事带来靓眼经济支出，南京 商旅资产注入进度跟踪——社会服务行业 周报（6.30-7.4）》 2025/07/06 看好 ——社会服务系列报告九：文化旅游新趋势 本期投资提示： 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ⚫ 中国香港在 RWA 领域率先探索合规化路径，政策与市场双轮驱动发展。政策层面，香 港金融管理局宣布于 2024 年 8 月启动 Ensemble 项目沙盒，截至 2025 年 7 月批准 8 个 标杆案例，融资超 5 亿港元；2025 年 5 月推出《稳定币条例草案》（ ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [2][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant differentiation in performance across various sectors within the social services industry, particularly in tourism and hospitality, driven by changing consumer behaviors and economic conditions [3][4]. - The hotel industry is transitioning from a rapid growth phase to a more competitive environment, with a notable increase in the number of hotels and rooms available [3][4]. - The demand for duty-free shopping is anticipated to grow due to global economic recovery and consumption upgrades, despite some companies facing revenue declines [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Tourism Attractions - Jiuhua Tourism is projected to achieve a 22% increase in revenue and a 28% increase in net profit for H1 2025. Huangshan Tourism is expected to generate revenue of 911 million yuan, a 9% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 149 million yuan, up 13% [3][4]. - Changbai Mountain is forecasted to see a 7.48% decrease in revenue, with a net loss of 2 million yuan, marking a 110% decline [3][4]. - Tianmu Lake is expected to report a 5% revenue increase to 277 million yuan and a 9% rise in net profit to 58 million yuan [3][4]. Hotel Industry - Huazhu is expected to generate 11.66 billion yuan in revenue for H1 2025, a 2% increase, with a net profit of 2.04 billion yuan, up 18% [3][4]. - Shoulv Hotel is projected to see a 4% decline in revenue to 3.59 billion yuan, while net profit is expected to rise by 9% to 391 million yuan [3][4]. - Atour Hotel anticipates a 30% revenue increase to 4.24 billion yuan and a 16% rise in net profit to 653 million yuan [3][4]. Exhibition & Human Resource Services - The report notes increasing competition in the domestic market, with companies like Miao Exhibition expected to achieve a 9% revenue increase to 284 million yuan, despite a significant drop in net profit [3][4]. - Beijing Human Resources is projected to see a 6% revenue increase to 23.29 billion yuan, with a substantial 81% rise in net profit to 785 million yuan [3][4]. Duty-Free Sector - China Duty-Free is expected to report a 9% decline in revenue to 28.58 billion yuan and a 14% decrease in net profit to 2.84 billion yuan [3][4]. - Wangfujing is projected to see an 18% decline in revenue to 4.95 billion yuan, with a 73% drop in net profit to 80 million yuan [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in various sectors: 1. Exhibition and events: Lansheng Co., Lisheng Sports, Miao Exhibition 2. Human resources: Beijing Human Resources, Keri International 3. Tourism: Changbai Mountain, Jiuhua Tourism, Huangshan Tourism, Songcheng Performing Arts, Tianmu Lake 4. Hotels: Shoulv Hotel, Huazhu, Atour 5. Duty-free: China Duty-Free, Wangfujing [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The tourism industry continues to face significant losses in the first half of the year, with most companies reporting negative earnings, except for Guilin Tourism, which managed to turn a profit [2][8]. Company Performance - Guilin Tourism reported a net profit of approximately 8 million yuan in the first half of the year, a significant turnaround from a loss of 19.09 million yuan in the same period last year [3]. - The company attributed its performance improvement to a focus on efficiency, product optimization, and enhanced marketing efforts, alongside the recovery of 54.34 million yuan in receivables [3][5]. - Guilin Tourism's attractions received about 1.48 million visitors, a year-on-year increase of approximately 3.09%, with specific attractions like the Li River cruise and the Li River Waterfall Hotel also seeing visitor growth [3][4]. Industry Trends - The overall tourism sector is struggling, with companies like Changbai Mountain Tourism and Dalian Shengya also reporting losses in the first half of the year, with net losses of 0.26 million to 0.16 million yuan and 19.08 million to 12.72 million yuan, respectively [8]. - Factors contributing to these losses include extreme weather conditions, increased labor costs, and a decline in visitor numbers [8]. Strategic Initiatives - Guilin Tourism is focusing on technology integration, launching initiatives like the "Guilin Tourism AI Assistant" for smart travel planning and implementing smart monitoring systems for safety [4][9]. - The company plans to enhance its asset management by addressing underperforming assets and exploring new business models in low-altitude economy and digital cultural tourism [7][9].

Core Viewpoint - The tourism sector in A-shares is experiencing significant performance divergence in the first half of 2025, with many companies reporting increased losses while a few are showing substantial profit growth [2][11]. Group 1: Company Performance - Yunnan Tourism is expected to report a net loss of 90 million to 140 million yuan, an increase in losses by 95.79% to 204.57% compared to the previous year [4]. - Xi'an Tourism anticipates a net loss of 49 million to 69 million yuan, which is relatively stable compared to a loss of 63.66 million yuan in the same period last year [5]. - Changbai Mountain is projected to incur a net loss of 2.58 million to 1.58 million yuan, marking a shift from profit to loss due to increased operational costs and decreased visitor numbers [6]. - Dalian Shengya expects a net loss of 19.08 million to 12.72 million yuan, with a significant drop in net profit from the previous year [6]. - Tibet Tourism is set to achieve a net profit of approximately 2 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses in the previous year [7]. - Xiyu Tourism forecasts a profit of 9 million to 11 million yuan, a decline of 62.55% to 69.36% year-on-year [8]. - Guilin Tourism reports a net profit of about 8 million yuan, recovering from a loss of 19.09 million yuan in the same period last year [10]. - Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism expects a net profit of 90 million to 97 million yuan, an increase of 51.44% to 63.22% year-on-year, driven by new attractions and government subsidies [10]. Group 2: Market Trends and Influences - The performance divergence among tourism companies is influenced by factors such as weather disturbances, cost pressures, and differences in business structures [2][11]. - The summer peak season is anticipated to drive demand, with an expected increase in air travel passenger volume by 5.4% during the 2025 summer season [12]. - Analysts suggest that the combination of peak season demand, policy support, and AI empowerment will catalyze the recovery of natural scenic spots [12]. - The domestic tourism market is expected to remain stable, with a focus on deep experiences and cultural exploration as key consumer demands [12].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [4]. Core Insights - In June 2025, the total retail sales in China reached 4.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, which is below market expectations of 5.6% [4]. - The online retail sales growth slowed down due to the preemptive timing of the 618 shopping festival, while offline retail continues to show stable growth [4]. - The service consumption sector is experiencing rapid growth, supported by government policies, although restaurant revenue growth has declined [4]. - The "trade-in" policy continues to show effectiveness, with basic necessities demonstrating resilience, while gold and silver sales growth has slowed down due to seasonal factors [4]. - The report anticipates that the upcoming summer tourism season and the third round of trade-in subsidies will further stimulate domestic consumption [4]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - June retail sales grew by 4.8% year-on-year, with a total of 4.2 trillion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - Excluding automobiles, retail sales also grew by 4.8%, with a month-on-month decline of 2.2 percentage points [4]. Online and Offline Consumption - Online retail sales for the first half of 2025 increased by 8.5%, outpacing the overall retail growth by 3.5 percentage points [4]. - The online penetration rate remained stable at 26.8% in June, unchanged from the previous year [4]. Service Consumption - The service sector's production index rose by 6.0% year-on-year in June, with retail sales in the service sector growing by 5.3% [4]. - Restaurant revenue in June was 470.8 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of only 0.9% due to seasonal factors [4]. Policy Impact - The government has introduced measures to enhance consumer capacity and stimulate spending, with urban retail sales reaching 3.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [4]. - The trade-in policy has led to significant sales in consumer electronics, with related sales exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan by late June [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on e-commerce and instant retail sectors, particularly companies like Alibaba, JD.com, and Meituan, as well as quality jewelry brands benefiting from gold demand recovery [4]. - It also highlights opportunities in the travel industry and retail sectors that enhance in-store experiences [4].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - Retail Industry - E-commerce Sector - Home Appliances Industry - Catering Industry - Gold and Jewelry Market - Light Industry and Home Furnishing Sector - Automotive Industry - Textile and Cosmetics Industry Core Points and Arguments Retail Industry Insights - In June 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 6.4% in May, primarily due to the timing of e-commerce promotions which were moved to mid to late May, leading to a spike in May sales with a month-on-month growth of 11.5% compared to 8.4% in previous years [3][6] - Excluding seasonal factors, categories like home appliances and communication equipment maintained high growth rates, with home appliances growing at around 30% [3][6] Catering Sector Performance - June saw a significant decline in catering revenue, attributed to promotional activities reducing actual consumer spending rather than a decrease in demand [4][5] - The overall service retail sector showed improvement, with cumulative year-on-year growth rising from 5.2% to 5.3% [4] E-commerce and AI Development - Strong recommendation for the internet e-commerce sector, particularly with AI-driven advancements. NVIDIA's H20 card is expected to enhance computational power for AI applications in China [7] - Increased competition in instant retail is anticipated, with major platforms like Alibaba and Meituan being highlighted for investment [7] Gold and Jewelry Market Trends - Recent corrections in the gold and jewelry market are due to previously high expectations. However, the trend towards domestic gold jewelry remains strong, with brands that excel in craftsmanship and design expected to grow significantly [8] Light Industry and Home Furnishing Sector - The light industry and home furnishing sector benefited from the "old-for-new" policy, with June residential construction area declines narrowing and home furnishing retail sales showing strong growth [10] - The sector is viewed as having long-term investment value due to low valuations and structural opportunities in AI mattresses and design software [10] Home Appliances Industry Growth - The home appliances sector experienced a robust growth of 32.4% year-on-year in June, with total retail sales exceeding 140 billion yuan [11] - The "old-for-new" policy and the 618 promotion significantly boosted sales across various product categories, with air conditioners and kitchen appliances seeing substantial growth [11] New Consumer Categories in Home Appliances - New consumer categories, particularly cleaning appliances, are seeing increased market penetration. Companies like Ousheng Electric, Dechang, and Roborock are recommended for investment [12] Automotive Market Performance - The automotive market grew by 4.8% year-on-year in June, with new energy vehicle sales reaching 1.1 million units, a nearly 30% increase [16] - Domestic brands are gaining market share, with a 30% increase in sales, while luxury vehicle sales declined by 7% [16][17] Textile and Cosmetics Industry Overview - The textile and apparel sector grew by 1.9% in June, while cosmetics saw a decline of 2.3%. Notable growth in sportswear and specific brands like Haier and An Ta was observed [18] - Companies like Mao Ge Ping and Shangmei are highlighted for their strong growth potential in the cosmetics sector [18] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The shift towards smaller, specialized retail formats is evident, with convenience stores and specialty shops outperforming larger formats, indicating a trend towards professionalization and miniaturization in consumer behavior [6] - The IP cultural tourism sector is also noted for its potential, especially with the upcoming peak travel season and active IP collaborations [9]

Core Viewpoint - Changbai Mountain (603099) is expected to report a net profit loss for the first half of 2025, primarily due to adverse weather conditions affecting visitor numbers and increased operational costs [2][3][5] Trading Information Summary - On July 14, 2025, Changbai Mountain's stock closed at 38.52 yuan, down 0.21%, with a turnover rate of 1.93% and a trading volume of 51,600 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 199 million yuan [1] - The net outflow of main funds was 5.123 million yuan, accounting for 2.57% of the total transaction value, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 4.7188 million yuan, representing 2.37% of the total [2][5] Performance Disclosure Highlights - The company forecasts a net profit loss attributable to shareholders of the parent company between 158,000 yuan and 258,000 yuan for the first half of 2025, with an expected operating revenue of approximately 235 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of about 7.48% [2][3][5] - The previous year's net profit attributable to shareholders was 21.033 million yuan, with a non-recurring profit of 27.0914 million yuan, and earnings per share of 0.08 yuan [3] Company Announcement Summary - The anticipated performance decline is attributed to increased closure days of the scenic area due to extreme weather, leading to a decrease in visitor numbers and revenue [3][5] - Rising labor costs are also a factor, driven by increased social security bases, higher insurance premiums, and the outsourcing of business expansion and temporary labor [3][5]

Group 1 - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company for the first half of 2025 to be between -2.58 million and -1.58 million yuan, indicating a loss compared to the same period last year [1][2] - The estimated operating revenue for the first half of 2025 is approximately 235 million yuan, representing a decrease of about 7.48% compared to the same period last year [1][2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company, after deducting non-recurring gains and losses, is expected to be between -2.75 million and -1.75 million yuan [1][2] Group 2 - In the same period last year, the net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 21.03 million yuan, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 27.09 million yuan [2] - The increase in labor costs compared to the same period last year is attributed to higher social security bases, increased insurance premiums, and the expansion of outsourced and temporary labor [2] - The company faced operational challenges due to extreme weather, leading to increased closure days for scenic spots and a decline in visitor numbers [2]