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热点追踪周报:由创新高个股看市场投资热点(第187期)-2025-03-28
Guoxin Securities· 2025-03-28 11:46
Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model tracks the distance of stock prices or indices from their 250-day high to identify market trends and hotspots. It is based on the premise that stocks or indices near their recent highs tend to exhibit stronger momentum and potential for future gains[10][17]. - **Model Construction Process**: The 250-day new high distance is calculated as: $ 250\ Day\ New\ High\ Distance = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ Where: - $Close_t$ represents the latest closing price - $ts\_max(Close, 250)$ represents the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days If the latest closing price reaches a new high, the distance is 0. If the price has fallen from the high, the distance is a positive value indicating the degree of decline[10]. - **Model Evaluation**: This model effectively captures momentum and trend-following characteristics, aligning with prior research on the predictive power of stocks near their 52-week highs[10][17]. 2. Model Name: Stable New High Stock Screening Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies stocks that exhibit stable momentum characteristics, focusing on smooth price paths and consistent new highs. It incorporates factors such as analyst attention, relative strength, and price stability to refine the selection process[23][25]. - **Model Construction Process**: The screening process involves the following steps: - **Analyst Attention**: Stocks must have at least 5 "Buy" or "Overweight" ratings in the past 3 months - **Relative Strength**: Stocks must rank in the top 20% of the market based on 250-day price performance - **Price Path Smoothness**: $ Price\ Path\ Smoothness = \frac{Absolute\ Price\ Change\ Over\ 120\ Days}{Sum\ of\ Daily\ Absolute\ Price\ Changes\ Over\ 120\ Days} $ Stocks with smoother price paths are prioritized - **New High Consistency**: The average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days is calculated, and stocks with consistent proximity to new highs are selected - **Trend Continuation**: The average 250-day new high distance over the past 5 days is calculated, and the top 50 stocks are chosen based on this metric[23][25]. - **Model Evaluation**: This model emphasizes the temporal stability of momentum, leveraging smooth price paths and consistent trends to enhance predictive power[23][25]. --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance**: - Shanghai Composite Index: 3.97% - Shenzhen Component Index: 7.72% - CSI 300: 8.01% - CSI 500: 6.55% - CSI 1000: 5.20% - CSI 2000: 6.32% - ChiNext Index: 16.55% - STAR 50 Index: 8.64%[11][12][14] 2. Stable New High Stock Screening Model - **Selected Stocks**: 29 stocks were identified, including Wolong Electric, Newland, and Eilis. - **Sector Distribution**: - Manufacturing: 8 stocks (e.g., machinery) - Technology: 8 stocks (e.g., electronics) - Other sectors: Financials, healthcare, etc.[26][30][32] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: 250-Day New High Distance - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the relative position of a stock's price to its 250-day high, serving as a momentum indicator[10]. - **Factor Construction Process**: $ 250\ Day\ New\ High\ Distance = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ - $Close_t$: Latest closing price - $ts\_max(Close, 250)$: Maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[10]. - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor is simple yet effective in capturing momentum trends, aligning with established research on the predictive power of stocks near their recent highs[10][17]. 2. Factor Name: Price Path Smoothness - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor evaluates the stability of a stock's price movement over time, favoring stocks with smoother trajectories[23]. - **Factor Construction Process**: $ Price\ Path\ Smoothness = \frac{Absolute\ Price\ Change\ Over\ 120\ Days}{Sum\ of\ Daily\ Absolute\ Price\ Changes\ Over\ 120\ Days} $ Stocks with higher smoothness scores are prioritized[23]. - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor highlights the importance of temporal stability in momentum strategies, reducing noise from volatile price movements[23]. --- Backtesting Results of Factors 1. 250-Day New High Distance Factor - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance**: - Shanghai Composite Index: 3.97% - Shenzhen Component Index: 7.72% - CSI 300: 8.01% - CSI 500: 6.55% - CSI 1000: 5.20% - CSI 2000: 6.32% - ChiNext Index: 16.55% - STAR 50 Index: 8.64%[11][12][14] 2. Price Path Smoothness Factor - **Selected Stocks**: 29 stocks were identified, including Wolong Electric, Newland, and Eilis. - **Sector Distribution**: - Manufacturing: 8 stocks (e.g., machinery) - Technology: 8 stocks (e.g., electronics) - Other sectors: Financials, healthcare, etc.[26][30][32]
支付宝"碰一下"爆火背后,隐形冠军集群浮出水面
凤凰网财经· 2025-03-21 13:44
而随着蓝思科技在港股递交申请书,市场对NFC技术在国内的应用市场也产生了浓厚兴趣。支付宝"碰一下"背后有多家上市公司参与其中,包括蓝思科技 和奥比中光提供整机设备,复旦微电的NFC芯片,以及拉卡拉和新大陆在全国范围内合作投放"碰一下"支付终端,覆盖零售、餐饮、交通等多个场景,此 外还有新国都作为收单机构参与推广,联合推动"碰一下"支付的普及。 行业预测,随着移动支付的普及和支持NFC功能的智能手机出货量的爆发式增长,NFC行业在中国有望达到数千亿元的市场规模。这条赛道的想象空间正 在打开,蓝思科技的赴港上市无疑将为其注入新的动力,也预示着NFC产业的进一步发展。 01 "碰一下"覆盖全国100个城市,产业链隐形冠军浮出水面 2024年7月,支付宝开始在全国范围内推广"碰一下"支付,此后,蓝思科技通过官方微信认领了这款支付宝"碰一下"收款一体机核心供应商的身份,并被市 场戏称为新晋的"碰一下概念股"。作为支付宝支付设备的整机组装商,公司深度参与NFC和移动支付新风口。 2025年3月,中国消费电子产业链迎来标志性事件——作为苹果核心供应商的蓝思科技正式向港交所递交上市申请,计划募集资金加速全球化布局。 这家深耕 ...
海通证券每日报告精选-2025-03-17
Haitong Securities· 2025-03-17 03:26
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company Newland (000997) with a projected dynamic PE of 25-30 times for 2025, indicating a reasonable value range of 34.75-41.70 CNY [6][33] Core Insights - The report highlights the strong growth potential in the spandex industry driven by rising demand from leisure and sportswear, predicting a supply gap of 32,500 tons on average from 2025 to 2027 [5][23] - The report emphasizes the upward trend in the photovoltaic industry, supported by recent price increases in distributed components and favorable government policies aimed at optimizing energy structure [5][26] Summary by Sections Macro Analysis - The macroeconomic analysis indicates a rebalancing of leverage structures, with government financing increasing while corporate financing remains low, reflecting a broader trend of macro leverage adjustment [4][18] Industry and Theme Highlights - In the chemical sector, spandex demand is expected to grow significantly, with a projected average supply gap of 32,500 tons from 2025 to 2027, driven by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.26% in the sportswear segment [5][23] - The renewable energy sector is witnessing a price increase in distributed components, indicating a robust market performance and a positive outlook for the photovoltaic industry [5][26] Key Stocks and Other Commentary - Newland is noted for its comprehensive embrace of AI applications, enhancing merchant operations and smart terminals, with projected revenues of 8.273 billion CNY in 2024, growing to 10.038 billion CNY by 2026 [6][33] - The report suggests that the spandex industry will benefit from the increasing demand for leisure and sportswear, with significant growth expected in the coming years [5][22]
计算机行业跟踪周报371期:华为与英伟达AI大会将召开,腾讯积极进行算力储备-2025-03-16
Haitong Securities· 2025-03-16 13:04
[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/信息服务 证券研究报告 行业周报 2025 年 03 月 16 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] -27.29% -14.60% -1.90% 10.79% 23.49% 36.18% 2024/3 2024/6 2024/9 2024/12 信息服务 海通综指 资料来源:海通证券研究所 相关研究 [Table_ReportInfo] 《华为组建医疗卫生军团,AI 医疗有望加 速落地》2025.03.09 《计算机行业跟踪周报 370 期:全球首款 通用 AI Agent Manus 发布,政府工作报 告中"人工智能+"成重点》2025.03.09 《中国公司发布全球首款通用 AI Agent Manus,AI Agent 商业爆发加速到来》 2025.03.07 分析师:杨林 Tel:(021)23183969 Email:yl11036@haitong.com 证书:S0850517080008 分析师:杨昊翊 Tel:(021)23185620 Email:yhy15080@hai ...
海通证券每日报告精选-2025-03-14
Haitong Securities· 2025-03-14 02:11
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the companies analyzed, including 横店东磁, 新大陆, and 博士眼镜, indicating expected stock performance above the benchmark index [4][23][28]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recovery and growth potential in various sectors, particularly in the tourism industry in Southeast Asia, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.4% for Vietnam, 13.7% for Malaysia, and 12.1% for Thailand from 2023 to 2028 [8]. - The coal price is expected to stabilize in the short term, with a price range of 720-750 RMB per ton, which may positively impact the power sector [3][12]. - The increasing online booking penetration in Southeast Asia is noted, with countries like Singapore expected to reach a 65% online booking rate by 2024, indicating a shift towards digitalization in the tourism sector [9]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The report indicates that the coal and power sectors are experiencing a short-term stabilization, with expectations of a market improvement from late March to April 2025 [3][12]. - The tourism market in Southeast Asia is projected to grow significantly, with Thailand's tourism revenue contributing 63.9% to its total tourism income in 2023 [7][8]. Company Analysis - 横店东磁 is expected to achieve net profits of 19.23 billion, 22.67 billion, and 28.21 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, with growth rates of 5.3%, 17.9%, and 24.5% respectively, supported by a strong performance in its solar and magnetic materials segments [4][17]. - 新大陆 is projected to have revenues of 82.73 billion, 91.03 billion, and 100.38 billion RMB from 2024 to 2026, with net profits growing at rates of 17.0%, 21.8%, and 17.5% [23]. - 博士眼镜 anticipates net profits of 1.24 billion, 1.52 billion, and 1.72 billion RMB from 2024 to 2026, with a notable exploration of the smart glasses market [25][28]. Market Trends - The report notes a trend towards digitalization in the tourism sector, with a significant increase in online booking rates across Southeast Asia, indicating a robust growth opportunity for online travel agencies (OTAs) [9][10]. - The competitive landscape in the tourism market is described as fragmented, with major players holding less than 8% market share in most Southeast Asian countries, suggesting opportunities for new entrants [9][10].
新大陆:第九届董事会第四次会议决议公告
2024-11-15 12:15
证券代码:000997 证券简称:新大陆 公告编号:2024-049 新大陆数字技术股份有限公司 第九届董事会第四次会议决议公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确、完整,没有虚假记载、误导性 陈述或重大遗漏。 2024 年 11 月 5 日,新大陆数字技术股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")董事 会以书面形式向各位董事发出召开公司第九届董事会第四次会议的通知,并于 2024 年 11 月 15 日在公司会议室以现场和通讯相结合的方式召开了此次会议。会 议应到董事 5 人(其中独立董事 2 名),实到 5 人。会议由董事长王晶女士主持, 公司监事及高级管理人员列席了此次会议。会议的召集和召开程序符合《公司法》 和《公司章程》的有关规定。 本次会议经过认真审议并通过如下决议: 一、审议通过《关于注销部分回购股份暨减少注册资本的议案》,表决结果为: 同意 5 票,反对 0 票,弃权 0 票。 具体内容详见同日披露于《中国证券报》、《证券时报》、《上海证券报》及 巨潮资讯网的《关于修订公司章程的公告》(公告编号:2024-053)。 四、审议通过《关于召开 2024 年第一次临时股东大会的议案》,表决结 ...
新大陆:第九届监事会第三次会议决议公告
2024-11-15 12:15
新大陆数字技术股份有限公司 第九届监事会第三次会议决议公告 本公司及其监事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确、完整,没有虚假记载、误导 性陈述或重大遗漏。 证券代码:000997 证券简称:新大陆 公告编号:2024-050 一、审议通过《关于注销部分回购股份暨减少注册资本的议案》,表决结果为: 同意 3 票,反对 0 票,弃权 0 票。 监事会认为,本次注销回购股份符合相关法律法规、规范性文件及《公司章 程》等规定,不会对公司的财务状况和经营成果产生重大影响,不存在损害公司 及中小投资者利益的情形,也不会导致公司的股权分布不符合上市条件,亦不会 影响公司的上市地位。监事会同意本次注销部分回购股份暨减少注册资本的相关 事项。 二、审议通过《关于募集资金投资项目结项并将节余募集资金永久补充流动 资金的议案》,表决结果为:同意 3 票,反对 0 票,弃权 0 票。 监事会认为公司本次募投项目结项并将剩余募集资金永久补充流动资金事项 的决策程序合理,符合相关法律、法规的规定。公司使用剩余募集资金永久补充 流动资金,有利于提高公司募集资金的使用效率,满足公司经营业务发展对流动 资金的需求,促进公司主营业务持续稳定 ...
新大陆:关于控股股东股份解除质押的公告
2024-11-13 09:49
证券代码:000997 证券简称:新大陆 公告编号:2024-048 新大陆数字技术股份有限公司 关于控股股东股份解除质押的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整,没有虚假记载、误导性 陈述或重大遗漏。 三、备查文件 1、解除证券质押登记通知; 2、中国证券登记结算有限责任公司证券质押及司法冻结明细表。 特此公告。 新大陆数字技术股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")近日接到公司控股股东新大 陆科技集团有限公司函告,获悉其持有公司的部分股份办理了解除质押业务,并已 在中国证券登记结算有限责任公司办理完成相应的登记手续,具体事项如下: 二、股东股份累计被质押情况 截至公告披露日,上述股东及其一致行动人所持质押股份情况如下: | | | | | | | | 已质押股份 | | 未质押股份 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 情况 | | 情况 | | | | | | 本次解除 | 本次解除 | 占其所 | 占公司 | 已质押 | | | | | 股东 | 持 ...
新 大 陆-2025年福建辖区上市公司投资者网上集体接待日【全景路演】
2024-10-31 00:57
尊敬的各位领导各位嘉宾上市公司高管以及投资者朋友们大家下午好 为了贯彻落实国务院关于进一步提高上市公司质量的意见精神推动福建辖区上市公司做好投资者关系管理工作更好帮助投资者了解辖区上市公司情况进一步促进上市公司提升治理水平不断提高上市公司质量 福建证监局协同福建省上市公司协会深圳市全景网络有限公司举办了2025年福建辖区上市公司投资者网上集体接待日活动 福建辖区101家上市公司高管人员将通过网络在线交流形式就2025年年报以及经营状况公司治理现金分红发展战略重大事项投资者保护可持续发展等广大投资者所关心的问题与投资者进行沟通和交流感谢各位的关注 全景网全景录演将对本次活动进行全程的关注利用视频直播文字报道等多渠道对本场活动进行全程报道下面请允许我向大家介绍莅临本次活动的各位领导他们是 中国证券监督管理委员会福建监管局党委委员副局长赵源欢迎您中国证券监督管理委员会福建监管局公司监管一处处长陈彦平欢迎您 好尊敬的各位领导各位来宾欢迎大家回到2025年福建辖区上市公司投资者网上集体接待日活动的现场福建证监局2025年以推动资本市场高质量发展为核心目标围绕深化制度改革服务实体经济防控金融风险等重点方向多维度强化监管效 ...
新大陆(000997) - 2024 Q3 - 季度财报
2024-10-25 11:17
Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q3 2024 was CNY 1,936,722,905.76, a decrease of 5.29% year-on-year[3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2024 was CNY 288,911,888.08, an increase of 13.91% year-on-year[3] - The company's total revenue for the current period was CNY 5,573,189,426.32, down from CNY 5,883,086,124.70 in the previous period, indicating a decrease of about 5.26%[15] - The net profit attributable to the parent company increased to CNY 818,755,381.88 in Q3 2024, compared to CNY 818,203,917.88 in Q3 2023, showing a slight growth[16] - The total comprehensive income for Q3 2024 was CNY 920,141,642.22, compared to CNY 820,180,383.42 in Q3 2023, marking an increase of approximately 12.3%[16] - The basic earnings per share for Q3 2024 was CNY 0.8082, slightly up from CNY 0.8076 in Q3 2023[16] Cash Flow - Cash flow from operating activities decreased by 85.47% year-to-date, totaling CNY 258,860,355.70[3] - Operating cash inflow for the current period was ¥6,294,240,940.08, a decrease of 11.93% from ¥7,147,413,801.25 in the previous period[17] - Cash outflow from operating activities totaled ¥6,035,380,584.38, an increase of 12.43% compared to ¥5,366,178,574.71 in the previous period[18] - Net cash flow from operating activities was ¥258,860,355.70, significantly down from ¥1,781,235,226.54 in the previous period[18] - Cash inflow from investment activities was ¥1,353,551,005.78, up from ¥483,418,210.59 in the previous period[18] - Net cash flow from investment activities was -¥217,341,539.92, an improvement from -¥1,229,656,652.67 in the previous period[18] - Cash inflow from financing activities was ¥1,442,222,218.08, compared to ¥1,276,419,939.40 in the previous period, reflecting a growth of 12.97%[18] - Net cash flow from financing activities was -¥305,298,563.44, a decline from ¥757,080,370.78 in the previous period[18] - The ending cash and cash equivalents balance was ¥2,075,965,392.29, down from ¥2,584,915,256.09 in the previous period[18] - The company received ¥661,998,000.00 from cash recovered from investments, a significant increase from ¥64,717,421.79 in the previous period[18] - The company paid ¥1,305,839,831.50 in cash for debt repayment, compared to ¥330,163,426.00 in the previous period, indicating a substantial increase in debt servicing[18] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets at the end of Q3 2024 were CNY 12,621,130,633.02, down 4.38% from the end of the previous year[4] - As of September 30, 2024, the total current assets amounted to CNY 8,145,473,877.22, an increase from CNY 7,938,624,041.20 at the beginning of the year, reflecting a growth of approximately 2.6%[12] - The cash and cash equivalents decreased to CNY 3,768,749,025.29 from CNY 4,491,611,328.61, representing a decline of about 16.1%[12] - Accounts receivable increased significantly to CNY 1,574,023,511.38 from CNY 927,890,322.00, marking an increase of approximately 69.6%[12] - Inventory rose to CNY 1,007,289,504.89, up from CNY 882,603,883.43, indicating a growth of around 14.2%[12] - The total non-current assets were recorded at CNY 1,823,000,000.00 as of September 30, 2024[12] - The total liabilities decreased from CNY 6,491,512,489.05 to CNY 5,248,290,890.90, representing a reduction of about 19.2%[13] - The total liabilities and equity decreased from CNY 13,199,752,173.21 to CNY 12,621,130,633.02, a decline of approximately 4.35%[14] - The company's short-term borrowings slightly decreased from CNY 1,246,193,530.27 to CNY 1,229,681,507.81, a reduction of about 1.32%[13] Shareholder Information - The company reported a total of 60,170 common shareholders at the end of the reporting period[10] - The largest shareholder, Newland Technology Group, holds 29.93% of the shares, amounting to 308,879,440 shares, with 82,500,000 shares pledged[10] - The total equity attributable to the parent company increased from CNY 6,396,649,996.08 to CNY 6,995,620,500.78, reflecting an increase of approximately 9.35%[14] Strategic Outlook - The company has ongoing research and development efforts focused on new technologies and products, although specific details were not disclosed in the report[12] - Future outlook includes potential market expansion and strategic acquisitions to enhance growth opportunities[12] - The company has not reported any significant changes in its shareholder structure or any new strategic partnerships during the quarter[12] Transaction Volume - The company’s total transaction volume for the first three quarters was approximately CNY 15.5 trillion, reflecting a decline due to regulatory impacts[7] - The proportion of QR code payment amounts increased by 6 percentage points compared to the same period last year[7] - The overseas shipment of smart POS terminals accounted for over 39% of total overseas shipments[7] Investment Income - Investment income increased by 238.50% year-on-year, amounting to CNY 97,436,400[8] - The net cash flow from investing activities increased by 82.33% year-on-year, totaling CNY 101,231,510[8]