《关注业绩支撑的白马反弹，科技与通胀 共振——2026/1/19-2026/1/25 汽车周 报》 2026/01/27 证券分析师 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱傅哲 A0230524080008 zhufz@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 行 2026 年 02 月 02 日 重点公司 Q4 业绩强兑现，特斯拉 再次强调 AI 转型 看好 ——2026/1/26-2026/2/1 汽车周报 本期投资提示： 行 业 及 产 业 证 券 研 究 报 告 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 汽车 ⚫ 观点：①特斯拉业绩会强调 AI 应用方向转型（机器人、智能驾驶、Robotaxi 等）， optimus V3 市场预期持续强化，关注机器人产业链估值弹性，恒勃、银轮、隆盛、拓 普、三花等。②部分重点公司业绩预告符合预期，继续建议关注有业绩支撑的白马机 会，尤其是在权重指数中的企业，包括宇通客 ...

Investment Highlights - The smart car index decreased by 1.3%, while the index excluding Tesla increased by 1.9%, and the index excluding complete vehicles fell by 7.1% as of January 30, 2026 [4][10] - The smart car index PS (TTM) is at 15.2x, placing it in the 99th percentile since the beginning of 2023; the index excluding Tesla is at 5.9x, in the 83rd percentile; and the index excluding complete vehicles is at 9.9x, in the 81st percentile [4][17] Industry Core Changes - By Q4 2025, Tesla's FSD subscription is expected to reach 1.1 million [5] - Key personnel changes include Qianli Technology's Yin Qi becoming the chairman of Jueyue Xingchen [5] - Partnerships formed include Xiaoma Zhixing collaborating with Aite Boda, and Hezhima Intelligent signing a strategic agreement with Baidu's Luobo Kuaipao to build a driverless ecosystem [5] - The latest tracking of North American Robotaxi shows a total of 7.49 billion miles driven by FSD as of January 30, 2026, with Waymo having 96,090 daily active users as of January 27, 2026 [5][25] Current Investment Recommendations - The focus remains on the 2026 L4 RoboX main line, favoring B-end software stocks over C-end hardware stocks [6] - Preferred H-shares include Xiaopeng Motors, Horizon Robotics, Xiaoma Zhixing, Wenyan Zhixing, and Cao Cao Mobility; A-shares include Qianli Technology, Desay SV, and Jingwei Hengrun [6] - Downstream application-related stocks include: - Robotaxi perspective: Integrated models like Tesla and Xiaopeng Motors; technology providers with revenue-sharing models like Horizon, Baidu, Xiaoma Zhixing, Wenyan Zhixing, and Qianli Technology; transformation of ride-hailing/taxi services like Didi, Cao Cao Mobility, and others [6] - Robovan perspective: Desay SV and Jiushi Intelligent [6] - Other autonomous vehicle perspectives: mining trucks (Xidi Zhijia), ports (Jingwei Hengrun), sanitation vehicles (Yingfeng Environment), and buses (Wenyan Zhixing) [6] - Upstream supply chain-related stocks include: - B-end driverless vehicle OEMs like BAIC Blue Valley, GAC Group, Jiangling Motors, and Tongli Co [6] - Core upstream suppliers: testing services (China Automotive Research, China Automotive Technology), chips (Horizon Robotics, Hezhima Intelligent), domain controllers (Desay SV, Jingwei Hengrun), sensors (Sunny Optical Technology, Hesai, Suteng Juchuang), steer-by-wire chassis (Bertley, Nexperia, Zhejiang Shibao), and glass (Fuyao Glass) [6]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive acoustic components market is experiencing significant growth driven by the shift in consumer preferences towards comfort and the increasing demand for noise, vibration, and harshness (NVH) performance in vehicles. The market is expected to reach a scale of 10.49 billion yuan by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 23.0% [1][8]. Overview - Automotive acoustic components are electronic and mechanical parts used in vehicle acoustic systems to enhance safety, communication, entertainment, and noise control. They play a crucial role in improving NVH performance and meeting comfort and regulatory noise reduction requirements [2][3]. Market Policies - The Chinese government has implemented various policies to support the development of the automotive acoustic components industry, creating a favorable environment for growth. These include initiatives aimed at enhancing manufacturing reliability and promoting the development of new energy and intelligent connected vehicles [3][4]. Industry Chain - The industry chain for automotive acoustic components includes upstream suppliers of acoustic materials, midstream manufacturers of acoustic components, and downstream automotive manufacturers. The rapid growth of the new energy vehicle market is reshaping demand for acoustic components, leading to increased requirements for lightweight and high-performance products [6][7]. Development Status - The automotive acoustic components market is expanding as manufacturers enhance their product offerings to meet consumer demands for comfort. The market is projected to grow significantly, particularly with the rise of new energy vehicles, which require advanced acoustic solutions [1][8]. Competitive Landscape - Historically dominated by international giants, the market is seeing a shift as domestic companies like Suzhou Aosheng Electronics and AAC Technologies gain market share through technological advancements and cost advantages. This trend is expected to accelerate with the rise of domestic automotive brands and localization of supply chains [10]. Key Domestic Players - Suzhou Aosheng Electronics is a leading provider of automotive acoustic solutions, with a revenue of 1.367 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, primarily from speaker sales [11]. - AAC Technologies is recognized for its comprehensive capabilities in acoustic, optical, and sensor solutions, reporting a revenue of 13.32 billion yuan in the same period [12]. Development Trends - The industry is moving towards active intelligent noise reduction technologies to meet the unique demands of new energy vehicles. This includes the integration of AI algorithms for real-time noise management [13]. - Material innovation is focusing on environmentally friendly and lightweight solutions, with a shift from traditional materials to biodegradable and composite materials [14]. - The proliferation of smart cabins is driving the evolution of acoustic components towards personalized and scenario-based functionalities, enhancing user experience and creating new business models [15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rapid maturation and increasing competition within the autonomous driving industry, with a significant surge in financing activities as companies prepare for IPOs in Hong Kong [2][4][15] - Companies like Desay SV and others are planning to issue shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, reflecting a broader trend where at least 35 domestic autonomous driving firms are expected to raise over 60 billion yuan by 2025 [2][5] - The financing landscape is shifting from broad investments to targeted funding for core enterprises and key scenarios, indicating a more selective approach by investors [5][6][15] Group 2 - The autonomous driving sector is entering a critical phase, transitioning from a growth period to an explosive growth phase, with recent regulatory approvals for L3 autonomous vehicles boosting confidence among industry players [5][6] - Companies are increasingly focusing on L4 autonomous driving technology in closed scenarios, which are gaining traction among investors due to their commercial viability [10][11] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with a clear divide emerging between leading firms and those struggling to keep up, as funding increasingly flows to top-tier companies [6][12][16] Group 3 - The trend of financing is evolving from being driven by narratives to a focus on value realization, with investors now prioritizing companies that can demonstrate a clear path to profitability and market demand [14][16] - The industry is still in an investment phase, with many companies yet to achieve profitability, making financing a crucial element for growth [15][16] - The successful commercialization of autonomous driving technologies in specific applications, such as mining and logistics, is helping some companies achieve profitability and attract further investment [12][11]

行业重点新闻 吉利汽车。 （2）零部件：行业反内卷背景下，盈利能力有望拐点向上，叠加下游扩展，成长性依旧较高，推荐： 德赛西威、浙江仙通、美力科技、博俊科技、金固股份，受益标的：潍柴动力、科博达、华域汽车、双 环传动、福耀玻璃、旭升集团、伯特利、瑞鹄模具、松原股份。 风险提示：乘用车行业需求不及预期；汽车行业竞争加剧；电动智能化转型不及预期；政策支持力度不 及预期；原材料价格大幅波动风险。 （1）特斯拉 Robotaxi 战略揭秘：双座 Cybercab 主攻九成出行场景，ModelY/Robovan 补位；（2）特斯 拉首次披露FSD 付费用户数据：约110 万人，占公司累计车辆销量约12%；（3）上海推出汽车置换更 新补贴：购买新能源车补贴车价8%，最高不超1.5 万元；（4）国家能源局：2027 年底将建成2800 万个 充电设施，预计拉动投资2000 亿元以上；（5）文远知行发布通用仿真模型WeRideGENESIS，几分钟 即可构建仿真城市环境；（6）玉柴发布全球首个飞轮增程技术品牌，最高发电效率突破 4.8kWh/L； （7）潍柴超10 万台份额超50%，龙擎/玉柴领涨，燃气重卡动力2025 年净 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The automotive sector is experiencing a significant shift with the introduction of Tesla's Robotaxi strategy, focusing on a dual-seat Cybercab to address 90% of travel scenarios [5][13] - Tesla has disclosed that approximately 1.1 million Full Self-Driving (FSD) paid users account for about 12% of its total vehicle sales, with a year-on-year growth of 38% [14] - The Shanghai government has introduced a subsidy for replacing old vehicles with new energy vehicles, offering an 8% subsidy on the purchase price, capped at 15,000 yuan [14] - The National Energy Administration plans to establish 28 million charging facilities by the end of 2027, expected to drive over 200 billion yuan in investments [15] - The global humanoid robot shipment is projected to increase by 508% in 2025, with Chinese manufacturers leading the market [20][22] Market Performance - The automotive sector underperformed the market, with the A-share automotive index declining by 4.67%, ranking 29th among primary industries [6][25] - The passenger vehicle index fell by 1.84%, while the commercial vehicle index decreased by 1.21% [6] - The automotive parts index saw a decline of 6.82%, with various segments experiencing different levels of performance [6] Investment Recommendations - For passenger vehicles, there is an unexpected demand in the domestic high-end luxury market, with recommendations for Jianghuai Automobile and Seres, while Geely Automobile is identified as a beneficiary [7] - In the automotive parts sector, profitability is expected to improve, with recommendations for Desay SV, Zhejiang Xiantong, Meili Technology, and others, while Weichai Power and others are seen as beneficiaries [7]

Core Insights - The Chinese automotive industry is transitioning from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement" in 2026, driven by electrification and intelligent transformation [1] - The market competition is shifting from price wars to a "value war" focused on technological innovation, product iteration, quality enhancement, and experience optimization [1] Market Overview - In 2026, the total vehicle sales in China are projected to reach 34.75 million, a slight increase of 1%, while another estimate suggests around 28 million units, growing by 2% [2] - The industry is entering a phase characterized by high sales volume but low growth, with competition focusing on quality and efficiency rather than scale [2] - The central economic work conference emphasizes a policy direction of "stability while seeking progress" and "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement" for the automotive sector [2] New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) - NEVs are expected to achieve significant growth, with sales projected to exceed 20 million units in 2026, solidifying their market dominance [3] - Domestic automakers are leveraging technological innovation and supply chain advantages to produce competitively priced NEVs, shifting from policy-driven sales to market-driven sales as penetration rates exceed 50% [3] Competitive Landscape - Leading domestic automakers like Geely, BYD, and Chery are expected to benefit from product structure upgrades and global expansion, with Geely targeting over 4.5 million units in sales for 2026 [3] - New entrants in the automotive market are experiencing accelerated differentiation, with companies like Leap Motor and Xpeng doubling their sales, while others like NIO are focusing on operational efficiency [4] Internationalization and Global Expansion - The Chinese automotive industry is increasingly focusing on international markets, with exports projected to exceed 8 million units in 2026, primarily driven by NEVs [12] - Major automakers are establishing overseas production facilities to mitigate tariffs and trade barriers, enhancing local integration and responsiveness [13] Technological Innovation - Key areas of technological advancement include power batteries, chips, and software, with significant breakthroughs expected in 2026 [6] - The development of next-generation battery technologies, such as solid-state batteries, is progressing, with initial production expected to begin in 2026-2027 [6] - Intelligent driving technologies are advancing, with L2-level driving assistance features expected to penetrate over 70% of new passenger vehicles by 2026 [7] Emerging Trends - The automotive industry is evolving into a "super platform," integrating various technologies and services beyond traditional transportation [11] - Companies are exploring new growth avenues, including humanoid robots and low-altitude economy sectors, with significant developments anticipated in 2026 [9][10]

跃马新程，扬鞭奋蹄。2026年是我国汽车产业从"规模扩张"驶向"提质增效"的关键之年。 面对电动化和智能化变革浪潮，我国汽车产业将在总量高位运行与结构深度调整中，奋力迈向高质量发 展。在国家政策引导和企业集体反思下，单纯以降价为核心的"内卷"有望缓解，而以技术创新、产品迭 代、品质提升、体验优化为核心的"价值战"将全面升级。 激烈的市场竞争，既是企业创新活力的生动体现，也是淘汰赛加速的直观映射。科技创新、供应链重 构、跨界融合、生态出海、政策调整、贸易保护等多种变量相互交织，不仅深刻重塑国内汽车市场竞争 格局，也将影响全球汽车市场走势。 竞争格局加速重构 经历了2025年超预期增长，2026年国内汽车市场正式迈入"高销量、低增长"新阶段。中汽协预计，2026 年汽车总销量达3475万辆，微增1%；车百会预计，2026年国内汽车销量约为2800万辆，增长2%。这个 阶段的核心特征，是销量基数大、增长幅度稳，行业竞争从规模比拼转向质量与效率竞争。 从产品结构来看，在整体市场平稳增长下，新能源汽车将实现量质齐升。新能源汽车仍是产业增长核心 动力，2026年销售量有望突破2000万辆（包括出口），市场主导地位进一步巩 ...

行 业 研 究 2026 年 02 月 01 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 38% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 汽车 沪深300 汽车研究团队 邓健全（首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790525090003 赵悦媛（联席首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790525100003 行业重点新闻 （1）特斯拉 Robotaxi 战略揭秘：双座 Cybercab 主攻九成出行场景，Model Y/Robovan 补位；（2）特斯拉首次披露 FSD 付费用户数据：约 110 万人，占公 司累计车辆销量约 12%；（3）上海推出汽车置换更新补贴：购买新能源车补贴 车价 8%，最高不超 1.5 万元；（4）国家能源局：2027 年底将建成 2800 万个充 电设施，预计拉动投资 2000 亿元以上；（5）文远知行发布通用仿真模型 WeRide GENESIS，几分钟即可构建仿真城市环境；（6）玉柴发布全球首个飞轮增程技 术品牌，最高发电效率突破 4.8kWh/L；（7）潍柴超 10 万台份额超 50%，龙擎/ 玉柴领涨，燃气重卡动力 2025 ...

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 《计算机板块持仓分析！CPU、沙箱、 Agent 全面分析！ ——计算机行业周报 20260119-20260124》 2026/01/24 《台积电 CapEx 指引算力需求确定性！ 2025 业绩前瞻！——计算机行业周报 20260112-20260116》 2026/01/17 证券分析师 黄忠煌 A0230519110001 huangzh@swsresearch.com 洪依真 A0230519060003 hongyz@swsresearch.com 刘洋 A0230513050006 liuyang2@swsresearch.com 研究支持 崔航 A0230524080005 cuihang@swsresearch.com 曹峥 A0230525040002 caozheng@swsresearch.com 陈晴华 A0230525100001 chenqh@swsresearch.com 罗宇琦 A0230124070004 luoyq@swsresearch.com 联系人 王开元 A0230125030001 wangky ...