超配（维持） 消费者服务行业 高端零售率先复苏，免税景气向好 免税行业深度报告 2026 年 1 月 28 日 分析师：邓升亮 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523050001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： dengshengliang@dgzq.com.cn 中信消费者服务指数走势 资料来源：iFind，东莞证券研究所 相关报告 投资要点： 证 券 研 究 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 深 度 研 究 行 业 研 究 报 告 ◼ 压制中国免税行业崛起的主要因素均被扭转，布局中国免税拐 点。复盘2020年后免税行业的走势，实际上免税走弱是受到了 多重因素的影响。一是疫情期间日韩等国采取了高额返佣的模 式导致竞争压力增加，而国内免税商同样加大了折扣力度导致 利润下降。二是国内居民家庭收入预期出现了阶段性的波动， 暂时影响了消费意愿，导致居民家庭"有钱不敢花"。三是供 给的稀缺，过去中国免税店以海南离岛免税和口岸免税为主， 离岛免税场景过去存在"离岛不离境"的限制，服务的游客数 量 ...

LVMH CEO Bernard Arnault started a Tuesday earnings call with some dry humor, telling investors that his company will see the end of winter. The French luxury tycoon, who is worth $197 billion, announced the company's full-year 2025 results during a call with investors."I'm delighted to present to you the figures for 2025, to begin with a good piece of news," he said. "I think we'll make it through the winter." He said that LVMH's results were "solid" in a challenging geopolitical and economic climate, an ...

Group 1: Company Strategy - Tiffany & Co. is shifting its focus from silver jewelry to gold and high jewelry, as stated by LVMH executives [1][2] - The demand for high jewelry has quadrupled over the last four years, while demand for silver jewelry has declined by one-third since LVMH acquired Tiffany in 2021 [2] - This marks a significant change for Tiffany, which has historically specialized in silver jewelry since its inception in 1851 [3] Group 2: Financial Performance - LVMH's watches and jewelry division reported €10.5 billion in sales (approximately $12.6 billion) in 2025, reflecting a 1% decline from the previous year [4] - LVMH's stock price has decreased by about 22% over the past year [4] Group 3: Market Trends - Gold prices have surged to record highs, with spot gold trading around $5,240 per ounce, up about 20% this year and 73% in 2025 [6] - Silver prices have also risen significantly, currently trading around $115 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 56% and a 170% rise last year [9] - The gold-to-silver ratio has fallen to a four-year low, indicating that silver now "appears expensive" relative to gold [12]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to challenge the 2025 high of 27,381 points, supported by the continuation of interest rate cuts in the US and increased monetary policy easing in mainland China [2] - The first quarter of 2026 is anticipated to see policy implementation focusing on expanding domestic demand and achieving technological self-reliance [2] - Despite geopolitical instability affecting risk appetite, a significant decline in the US dollar index is favorable for emerging markets, alongside a robust financing activity in the AI sector [2] Corporate News - Ganfeng Lithium (1772) has issued a profit warning, expecting a net profit between 1.1 billion to 1.65 billion RMB [4] - Cao Cao Mobility (2643) plans to raise 389 million RMB through a share placement at an 8.97% discount [4] - Haifeng International (1308) anticipates a 16%-19% increase in annual profits due to increased container throughput [4] - Dongfang Securities (3958) forecasts a 67.8% increase in net profit for 2025, reaching 5.62 billion RMB [10] - China Merchants Securities (6099) reported an 18% increase in net profit for the previous year, amounting to 12.3 billion RMB [10] - Shenwan Hongyuan (6806) expects a significant profit increase of 74.6%-93.8% for 2025, with net profit projected between 9.1 billion to 10.1 billion RMB [10] Economic Indicators - China's industrial profits increased by 0.6% in 2025, totaling 7.398 trillion RMB, with state-owned enterprises seeing a 3.9% decline in profits [8] - The People's Bank of China reported a 6.9% year-on-year increase in fixed asset loans by the end of Q4 2025, with total loans reaching 271.91 trillion RMB [8] - Hong Kong's exports rose by 26.1% and imports by 30.6% in December 2025, both exceeding expectations [8] AI Sector Developments - The AI sector is experiencing a surge in financing activities, driven by advancements in large AI models [7] - QuestMobile reported that Baidu's Wenxin Assistant has become the largest AI application in China, with over 200 million monthly active users [10] - Alibaba continues to invest heavily in AI and cloud services, aiming to optimize its capital structure and attract diverse funding [10]

华见早安之声 市场概述 科技巨头财报前标普500五连阳、收创最高纪录，道指回落。医保巨头UnitedHealth跌近20%、领跌道指成分股。财报公布前，微软涨超2%、特斯拉跌1%； 增加240亿美元NAND制造投资的美光收涨超5%；和Meta签下光缆大单的康宁涨超15%。 美元创四年新低，跌超1%、创去年4月特朗普宣布关税以来最大四日跌幅。日元三日累计涨4%，欧元和英镑创2021年来新高，离岸人民币近三年来首次盘 中涨破6.94。比特币盘中涨超2%，重新站上8.9万美元。 美消费者信心逊色，美债收益率刷新日低。 原油反弹，受中东局势影响，尾盘一度涨超3%。黄金连续六日收创历史新高，现货黄金一度涨超3%。白银震荡。 亚洲时段，A股午后拉升，三大股指集体收涨，算力产业链爆发，恒指涨超1%，紫金黄金涨超11%，沪银逆势涨7%。 要闻 中国12月规模以上工业企业利润同比增长 5.3%，全年同比增长0.6%，实现四年来首次增长。 美国将在中东举行空军战备演习，油价盘中涨3%，现货黄金涨超2%。特朗普：若遭暗杀，将把伊朗"从地球上抹去"！ 美元跌至四年低谷，特朗普不担心：美元表现出色，能找到合理水平。日本财务大臣：如有必 ...

华见早安之声 请各位听众升级为见闻最新版APP，以便成功收听以下音频。 市场概述 科技巨头财报前标普500五连阳、收创最高纪录，道指回落。医保巨头UnitedHealth跌近20%、领跌道指成分股。财报公布前，微软涨超2%、特斯拉跌1%； 增加240亿美元NAND制造投资的美光收涨超5%；和Meta签下光缆大单的康宁涨超15%。 美元创四年新低，跌超1%、创去年4月特朗普宣布关税以来最大四日跌幅。日元三日累计涨4%，欧元和英镑创2021年来新高，离岸人民币近三年来首次盘 中涨破6.94。比特币盘中涨超2%，重新站上8.9万美元。 美消费者信心逊色，美债收益率刷新日低。 原油反弹，受中东局势影响，尾盘一度涨超3%。黄金连续六日收创历史新高，现货黄金一度涨超3%。白银震荡。 亚洲时段，A股午后拉升，三大股指集体收涨，算力产业链爆发，恒指涨超1%，紫金黄金涨超11%，沪银逆势涨7%。 要闻 中国12月规模以上工业企业利润同比增长 5.3%，全年同比增长0.6%，实现四年来首次增长。 美国将在中东举行空军战备演习，油价盘中涨3%，现货黄金涨超2%。特朗普：若遭暗杀，将把伊朗"从地球上抹去"！ 美元跌至四年低谷，特朗普 ...

Pauline Brown, former chair of LVMH North America, discusses LVMH's outlook and the global luxury market with Romaine Bostick and Katie Greifeld on "The Close." She says interest has picked up to levels she hasn't seen in years, but the key question is whether it converts into sales. ...

Core Viewpoint - LVMH's fashion and leather goods division experienced a 3% decline in organic sales during the holiday season, indicating ongoing pressure from weak demand [1][4]. Group 1: Sales Performance - The organic sales decline in the fashion and leather goods sector was greater than the analyst expectation of a 2.94% drop [1][4]. - Despite the challenges in the fashion sector, LVMH's overall sales managed to achieve a slight increase due to better-than-expected performance in the watch and jewelry segment [3][7]. - In the fourth quarter, organic sales in the U.S. and regions including China grew by 1%, surpassing analyst forecasts, while Europe and Japan saw declines of 2% and 5%, respectively, both exceeding expectations [3][7]. Group 2: Financial Outlook - LVMH reported a recurring operating profit of €17.8 billion for the year, reflecting a 9.3% year-on-year decline, but still better than analyst expectations [3][7]. - CEO Bernard Arnault indicated that the company is facing a challenging operating environment and warned that 2026 is unlikely to be smooth, leading to spending restrictions for the year [1][4]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The luxury goods sector is struggling to rebound from a post-pandemic slump due to rising living costs and geopolitical uncertainties affecting consumer spending [5]. - Significant price increases have also led to strong consumer dissatisfaction, further complicating the market landscape for luxury brands [5].

Luxury conglomerate LVMH reported better-than-expected earnings after the bell on Tuesday and a second quarter of organic revenue growth, as the sector's recovering business in China starts to show up in balance sheets.Organic revenue grew by 1% in the fourth quarter, flat from the same period a year earlier. Over the full year, revenue decline 1%.The company reported fourth-quarter revenue of 22.7 billion euros, beating LSEG estimates of 22.2 billion euros. For the full year, revenue came to 80.8 billion e ...

The French luxury-goods giant results are a sign that shoppers weren't splurging on high-end garments, jewelry and cosmetics in the runup to the holiday season. ...