中信证券 近期美股科技股波动的思考 20250304 当前市场交易特征与去年 8、9 月份相似，都是典型的宏观主导结构。市场情绪 受宏观数据和政策变化影响显著。例如，今年微软削减部分数据中心项目、台 积电订单缩减、新加坡对英伟达出货审查等消息，在当前敏感时期结合宏观数 据走弱，使得市场出现明显下跌。然而，从长期来看，这些传闻本身并不会构 成持续性负面影响，因为企业通常会进行阶段性调整以适应市场变化。 摘要 Q&A 近期美股科技股的表现如何？背后的主要原因是什么？ 近期美股科技股出现了显著的下跌，主要指数如纳斯达克、标普 500 等都有较 大跌幅。背后的主要原因包括宏观经济数据的走弱，例如服务业 PMI 数据意外 走低、消费者信心指数下降以及通胀预期上升。此外，特朗普政府的一系列关 税政策，尤其是对墨西哥和加拿大的关税表述，也使得市场情绪变得非常悲观。 这些因素导致市场对经济增长和消费预期明显下行，从而引发了科技股的下跌。 • 宏观经济下行预期和高利率环境对科技股，尤其是软件和 AI 算力相关股票 造成显著冲击，软件作为经济后周期资产需求减少，AI 算力短期投入大于 产出导致资本开支缩减。 • 当前市场交易特征 ...

Core Viewpoint - Vietnam is set to build its first semiconductor wafer fabrication plant with a budget of 12.8 trillion VND (approximately 500 million USD), aiming to enhance its semiconductor ecosystem and attract foreign investment in the industry [1][2]. Investment and Development Plans - The Vietnamese government has approved a significant investment plan for a semiconductor factory, which will include tax incentives allowing companies to retain 20% of taxable income for reinvestment in the local semiconductor ecosystem [1]. - Vietnam is actively negotiating with several U.S. semiconductor companies, including GlobalFoundries and PSMC, to establish a semiconductor manufacturing presence in the country [3][5]. - The government aims to complete the first semiconductor manufacturing plant by around 2030, with plans to support local companies like Viettel in building their own facilities [5][10]. Industry Growth and Export Statistics - By 2021, semiconductors accounted for 19% of Vietnam's technology exports, up from 11% in 2011, with a compound annual growth rate of 37.6% during that period [8]. - In 2023, Vietnam's semiconductor equipment exports reached 7.53 billion USD, with over half going to the U.S., making Vietnam the third-largest chip exporter to the U.S. after Malaysia and Taiwan [8][10]. Strategic Vision for Semiconductor Industry - Vietnam's long-term strategy includes establishing six wafer fabrication plants and achieving an annual revenue of approximately 25 billion USD by 2030, with projections of 50 billion USD by 2040 and 100 billion USD by 2050 [13][14][15]. - The strategy will be implemented in three phases, focusing on attracting foreign investment, enhancing domestic capabilities, and ultimately creating a self-sufficient semiconductor ecosystem [16][20][22]. Challenges and Competitive Landscape - The high cost of building semiconductor fabs, estimated at up to 50 billion USD, poses a significant challenge for Vietnam as it competes with countries like China, the U.S., South Korea, and the EU, which have announced substantial funding for their semiconductor industries [6][12]. - Vietnam's semiconductor industry currently relies heavily on foreign direct investment, primarily in assembly, testing, and packaging, with limited domestic production capabilities [10][12].

比亚迪在港交所发布公告称，将新增发行 1.298 亿 股新 H 股，配售价为 335.2 港元 / 股，共计可融 资约 435.09 亿港元，扣除佣金和估计费用后，所得净额预计约为 433.83 亿港元，融资所得拟用作 集团研发投入、海外业务发展、补充营运资金以及一般企业用途。 比亚迪表示，这是过去十年全球汽车行业最大的股权再融资项目，阿联酋 Al-Futtaim 家族办公室以 战略投资者身份参与本次配售。Al-Futtaim 在中东和东南亚等地区拥有汽车、金融服务、房地产、 零售和医疗保健等产业。比亚迪这次股票发售也是 2021 年以来港交所同类售股中规模最大的一 次。 OpenAI 老对手 Anthropic 估值冲到 615 亿美元。 Anthropic 上周刚发完全球首个混合推理模型 Claude 3.7 Sonnet，这周就宣布完成 35 亿美元的 E 轮 融资，投后估值达到 615 亿美元；马斯克的 xAI 在去年 12 月 的估值介于 350 亿至 450 亿美元之 间。 Anthropic 是 OpenAI 前核心员工创立，2021 年时因对 OpenAI 在 AI 未来走向、安全风险以及商业 ...

Market Performance - The main board led the gains with notable stocks such as Daysea Intelligent (+10.03%), Zhejiang University Network New (+10.02%), and Dongni Electronics (+10.02) [1] - The ChiNext board saw significant increases with Yitong Technology (+20.02%), Saiwei Intelligent (+20.00%), and Langke Technology (+19.98%) [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation board was led by Chip Origin (+20.01%), Anlu Technology (+20.00%), and Guoxin Technology (+15.50%) [1] - Active sub-industries included SW Other Communication Equipment (+5.83%) and SW Analog Chip Design (+4.80%) [1] Domestic News - A new holographic waveguide N30G was showcased by Nika Optical, featuring high luminous efficiency of 600 nits/lm and a transmittance greater than 90% [1] - Shanghai has included AR/AI glasses in its digital product subsidy program, offering up to 15% direct price subsidies for consumers purchasing brands like Rokid and Meizu [1] - A major project in Jiangdu District aims to produce 3 million automotive-grade SiC modules annually, generating sales revenue of 1 billion yuan and tax revenue of 50 million yuan [1] - TSMC plans to invest an additional $100 billion in advanced semiconductor manufacturing projects in the U.S., including the construction of three new wafer fabs [1] Company Announcements - Weir Shares announced a pledge and release of part of its controlling shareholder's shares, with 48.78 million shares pledged, accounting for 11.94% of total shares [2] - Yuntian Lihui reported a share buyback progress, having repurchased 1,432,621 shares, representing 0.4034% of total shares [2] - Dongtu Technology disclosed receiving government subsidies totaling 21,844,452.91 yuan from October 25, 2024, to the announcement date [2] - Zhongke Xingtou's 2024 annual report indicated revenue of 3.257 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.49%, and a net profit of 352 million yuan, up 2.67% year-on-year [2] Overseas News - The NAND Flash industry is expected to see a revenue decline of up to 20% in Q1, but is anticipated to rebound in the second half of the year [2] - Marvell showcased its first 2nm silicon IP for next-generation AI and cloud infrastructure, produced using TSMC's 2nm process [2] - Qualcomm released the X85 5G modem, featuring a dedicated AI processor that improves AI inference speed by 30% compared to the previous generation [2] - Intel announced a five-year delay in the production of its $28 billion advanced chip manufacturing facility in Ohio, raising concerns about the reliance on government funding to revitalize the U.S. chip industry [2]

Core Viewpoint - The demand for semiconductor packaging is increasing due to the rise of artificial intelligence, leading companies to shift towards Fan-Out Panel Level Packaging (FOPLP) for better efficiency and cost reduction [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Developments - Taiwan's panel manufacturer Innolux plans to start mass production of FOPLP in the first half of 2025, aiming to surpass competitors like TSMC and ASE [1][2]. - ASE has invested $200 million to develop large-size FOPLP technology, expanding substrate size from 300mm x 300mm to 600mm x 600mm, with equipment expected to arrive in Q2 and trial production in Q3 [2]. - TSMC is focusing on micro FOPLP production lines, with expectations to achieve results within three years, favoring a 300mm x 300mm size over the rumored 515mm x 510mm [2]. Group 2: Technical Advantages - Current CoWoS packaging technology uses circular substrates, which limit chip placement as size increases. In contrast, FOPLP utilizes rectangular substrates, allowing for more chips per panel, thus improving utilization and reducing costs [2].

Core Viewpoint - Intel's stock has experienced significant volatility, dropping from $62 in mid-2021 to a low of $18.90 in September 2024, despite a general market and semiconductor stock rally [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Intel's stock rose by 15.8% this year, but remains below its February peak of 36.6% [4]. - The S&P 500 and iShares Semiconductor ETF have remained flat this year, contrasting with Intel's performance [4]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Intel is losing market share in CPU, GPU, and data center markets, with its x86 CPU market share dropping to 75-80% in 2024 from 82% in 2023, while AMD's share increased to 20-25% [6][7]. - AMD's EPYC chips have captured 25% of the server CPU market, while Intel's data center sales have declined for ten consecutive quarters [6]. - NVIDIA dominates the GPU market with approximately 88% share, leaving Intel trailing significantly [6][7]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Intel's sales have significantly declined, stabilizing between $52 billion and $58 billion in 2023, a drop of about 30% from peak levels [9]. - The company's gross margin has decreased from historical levels of 55-60% to 33.8% in 2024 [9]. - Intel's manufacturing division reported an operating loss of $7 billion in 2023, projected to increase to $13 billion in 2024 [10]. Group 4: Leadership and Strategic Challenges - Intel's leadership has changed, with the CEO being replaced after nearly four years, and interim executives are currently in place while a search for a permanent CEO is ongoing [10]. - The company faces significant challenges in its manufacturing capabilities, particularly with 10nm and 7nm processes, which have hindered its competitiveness [7]. Group 5: Strategic Importance and Future Outlook - Intel is considered a strategic asset for U.S. defense and military applications, having received substantial investments through the CHIPS Act [11]. - Concerns arise regarding potential foreign ownership of Intel's assets, which could undermine U.S. interests and lead to job losses in American facilities [11]. - Despite the potential for a turnaround, there are currently no signs of improvement, and recent stock price increases are viewed as speculative [11].

Core Viewpoint - Intel's 18A process technology is being tested by NVIDIA and Broadcom, which could lead to significant manufacturing contracts for Intel's foundry services if successful [2] Group 1: Intel's 18A Process Technology - NVIDIA and Broadcom are testing Intel's 18A process technology, which utilizes RibbonFET transistors and PowerVia backside power delivery [2] - The performance of Intel's 18A process is considered to be between TSMC's current and next-generation nodes, providing Intel a competitive opportunity in the foundry market [2] - Successful testing by NVIDIA and Broadcom is crucial for Intel to enter the foundry market, currently dominated by TSMC [2] Group 2: Impact of IP Module Certification - The certification of third-party IP modules for Intel's 18A process has been delayed by six months, potentially affecting service capabilities for small and medium chip design companies [2] - Once certified, these IP modules (such as PHY, controllers, PCIe interfaces) are expected to be widely used in millions of chips [2] Group 3: Strategic Importance of Intel - The U.S. government is focused on revitalizing the domestic semiconductor industry, with Intel being a key player as the largest chip manufacturer in the U.S. [2] - If all goes well, Intel is expected to start offering 18A foundry services to third-party customers by mid-2026 [2]

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 来源：内容 编译自calcalistech ，谢谢。 据路透社报道，芯片设计公司 Nvidia 和 Broadcom 正在与英特尔进行制造测试，这表明它们对这家 陷入困境的公司先进的生产技术充满信心。 这些测试此前从未被报道过，表明 Nvidia 和 Broadcom 正在评估是否要向英特尔承诺数亿美元的制 造合同。这一决定可能会大幅增加收入，并为英特尔的合同制造业务提供重要支持。英特尔的合同 制造业务一直面临延误，而且尚未宣布哪家大型芯片设计公司是客户。 AMD 也在评估英特尔的 18A 制造工艺是否符合其需求，但目前尚不清楚 AMD 是否已提交测试芯 片进行评估。AMD 拒绝置评。 英特尔发言人表示："我们不对具体客户发表评论，但看到整个生态系统对英特尔 18A 表现出浓厚 的兴趣和参与度。" Nvidia 和 Broadcom 正在测试英特尔的 18A 工艺，这是一项经过数年开发的尖端制造技术，专为 先进的 AI 处理器和其他复杂芯片而设计。18A 工艺与主导全球半导体市场的台湾台积电展开竞 争。 Nvidia 拒绝发表评论，而 Broadcom 也没有回应置评 ...

2月财新制造业PMI 50.8%，为近三个月最高，用工收缩率明显放缓。十四届全国人大三次会议将于 3月5日开幕，3月4日12时举行新闻发布会，大会发言人就大会议程和人大工作相关问题回答中外记 者提问。美国2月ISM制造业PMI为50.3%，较1月超预期回落，趋于停滞状态。美国对墨西哥和加拿 大商品征收25%的关税将于3月4日生效，对等关税将于4月2日开始征收。加拿大已经准备好一系列 可以立即反击的报复性措施。美股、中概股、原油、农产品普遍下跌，贵金属、基本金属、美债价 格普遍上涨。 重点品种： 股指、黄金、国债 股指 ：美国三大指数下跌，上一交易日股指回落调整为主，有色金属板块领涨，家用电器板块领跌， 全市成交额 1.66万亿元，其中IH2503下跌0.69%，IF2503下跌0.28%，IC2503上涨0.31%，IM2503下跌 0.23%。资金方面，2月28日融资余额减少178.58亿元至18871.70亿元。经过2月份快速上涨后，我们认 为短期有可能需要进行一段时间的消化整理，美国针对中国提高关税也会影响资金短期风险偏好，操作 上建议先观望。 黄金 ： 昨夜金银反弹。特朗普周一决定，从周二早些时候开始 ...

当地时间3月3日（周一），美股三大指数大幅震荡，跌幅一度均超过2%。截至收盘，道指跌1.48%，纳指跌2.64%，标普500指数跌1.76%。 美国总统特朗普表示，对等关税将于4月2日开始征收，美国对墨西哥和加拿大商品征收25%的关税将于3月4日生效。 经济数据表明，美国2月制造业活动增长几近停滞，原料支付价格指标创逾两年最高，未来预示通胀压力增大。 热门科技股多数下跌，超微电脑跌超13%，英伟达、ARM跌超8%，台积电、英特尔跌超4%，亚马逊、美光科技跌超3%，特斯拉、高通、微软跌超2%。 美股震荡下跌 当地时间3月3日（周一），美股三大指数大幅震荡，跌幅一度均超过2%。美国总统特朗普当地时间3月3日下午有关加征关税的表态刺激美股市场恐慌情绪升高。截 至收盘，道指跌649.67点，跌幅为1.48%，报43191.24点；纳指跌497.09点，跌幅为2.64%，报18350.19点；标普500指数跌104.78点，跌幅为1.76%，报5849.72点。 当地时间3月3日，美国总统特朗普表示，对等关税将于4月2日开始征收，美国对墨西哥和加拿大商品征收25%的关税将于3月4日生效。 特朗普表示，对墨西哥和加拿大的 ...