非银金融 2026 年 01 月 18 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 非银金融 沪深300 相关研究报告 《衍生品监管透明化，规模限制有望 放松利好头部券商—衍生品监管政策 点评》-2026.1.18 《海南全岛封关运作，跨境资管空间 广阔—行业深度报告》-2026.1.15 《两融杠杆上限调降对券商影响有 限，看好板块行情—行业点评报告》 -2026.1.14 逆周期调节呵护"慢牛"，券商和保险业务开门红 ——行业周报 | 高超（分析师） | 卢崑（分析师） | 张恩琦（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | gaochao1@kysec.cn | lukun@kysec.cn | zhangenqi@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520050001 | 证书编号：S0790524040002 | 证书编号：S0790125080012 | |  | 周观点：逆周期调节呵护"慢牛"，券商和保险业务开门红 | | 1 月 15 日证监会召开系统工作会议 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the securities industry [6][35]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector experienced a slight decline, with valuations remaining low. The brokerage index's price-to-book (PB) ratio is at 1.38x, which is at the 35th percentile over the past decade [3][10]. - Stock trading volume and margin financing have shown continuous growth, indicating a strengthening performance outlook for brokerages. The average daily stock trading volume reached 34,283 billion yuan, a 21.2% increase week-on-week, and a 162% increase year-on-year [4][19]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the issuance of new funds, with stock, mixed, and bond funds seeing substantial recoveries in issuance [4][23]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.45%, and the CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.6%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 1%. The non-bank financial index dropped by 2.6%, and the brokerage index fell by 2.2%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 1.6 percentage points [3][10]. - The report notes that only three brokerages saw gains, with Pacific Securities up by 1.4%, GF Securities by 1.1%, and Founder Securities by 0.1%. The largest declines were seen in Zhongyin Securities (-3.9%), CITIC Securities (-4.1%), and Guotai Junan (-4.6%) [3][10]. Industry Weekly Data Brokerage Business - The average daily stock trading volume for the week reached 34,283 billion yuan, marking a historical high and a significant increase from the previous month [4][19]. Investment Banking Business - Ten companies engaged in equity financing during the week, raising a total of 1,113 billion yuan, with a notable contribution from large-scale placements by Electric Investment and Hongchuang Holdings [4][24]. Capital Intermediary Business - As of January 16, the margin financing balance reached 27,187 billion yuan, a 3.5% increase, representing a new high and accounting for 2.93% of the total market capitalization of A-shares [5][27]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the continuous rise in stock trading volume and margin financing enhances the certainty of brokerage performance growth. The current PB valuation is considered low compared to expected performance growth, indicating potential for valuation recovery [6][35]. - It recommends focusing on internet brokerages with strong beta attributes, such as Zhina Compass, and firms like Jiufang Zhituo Holdings, which have strong performance certainty in an active market [6][35].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a positive outlook for the non-bank financial sector, driven by regulatory improvements and the potential for growth in derivative markets [5][6][7] - The report emphasizes the benefits of enhanced transparency in derivative regulations, which is expected to support the long-term development of derivative businesses for leading brokerage firms [5][6] - The demand for derivative products is strong, and regulatory adjustments may lead to relaxed scale limitations, benefiting top-tier brokerages [6][7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The non-bank financial sector is projected to outperform the overall market, with a focus on the growth of brokerage firms and their capabilities in wealth management and investment banking [7] Regulatory Environment - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is enhancing the regulatory framework for derivative markets, which includes clearer guidelines for contract development and trading rules [5] - The policy aims to support the stable development of the derivative market, encouraging risk management activities and limiting excessive speculation [5] Market Dynamics - The concentration of derivative business among top-tier brokerages is significant, with the top five firms holding a large market share in revenue swap and OTC options [6] - The report suggests that derivatives can help stabilize market fluctuations, contributing positively to capital market performance [6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on brokerage firms with strong international business and undervalued stocks, such as Huatai Securities, Guotai Junan, and CITIC Securities [7] - It also highlights firms with advantages in wealth management and retail, particularly those benefiting from cross-border asset management initiatives in Hainan [7]

Group 1 - Main international long-term funds have returned to Chinese stocks, with participation in Hong Kong IPOs rising from 10%-15% during low periods to 85%-90% recently [2][4] - Approximately 50-60% of the overseas funds that withdrew between 2022 and 2024 have returned, indicating a strong recovery of mainstream long-term international investors [4][5] - The Hong Kong IPO and refinancing market is expected to remain highly active in 2026, with a significant increase in the number of independent IPO projects [2][6] Group 2 - The total refinancing scale in Hong Kong for 2025 is projected to reach HKD 326.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 278.15% [6][8] - The market structure is anticipated to change, with the proportion of "A+H" listings expected to decline, leading to an increase in independent IPOs [2][7] - The upcoming lock-up expiration for large companies in March and September 2026 is expected to be a significant event, but it is not necessarily linked to market declines [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in bond issuance by securities firms at the beginning of 2026, with a total issuance exceeding 119.8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of over 73% [1][2][4] - A total of 27 securities firms have issued 44 bonds as of January 16, 2026, with leading firms like Huatai Securities, Guotai Junan, and China Galaxy Securities showing notable issuance volumes of 17.5 billion yuan, 14.8 billion yuan, and 14 billion yuan respectively [2][3] - The bond issuance is driven by a combination of business expansion, rising funding needs, and a low-interest-rate environment, allowing firms to actively position for future growth and structural adjustments [1][4][5] Group 2 - The current bond issuance structure indicates a clear strategic direction, with 12 short-term financing bonds, 27 corporate bonds, and 3 subordinated bonds issued, primarily aimed at supplementing working capital and repaying maturing debts [2][3] - Some firms are also utilizing international financing channels to increase capital for overseas subsidiaries, as seen with GF Securities planning to raise over 6 billion HKD through H-share placements and convertible bonds [3] - The favorable market conditions, including a strong performance in the capital market and low interest rates, have created an attractive environment for bond issuance, allowing firms to optimize their debt structure through refinancing [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China reported that in 2025, the total increase in RMB deposits reached 26.41 trillion yuan, with significant contributions from non-bank financial institutions and asset management products [2][3][4]. Group 1: Deposit Growth - In 2025, non-bank financial institution deposits increased by 6.41 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.8 trillion yuan, the highest growth since 2015 [4][5]. - Household deposits grew steadily, adding 14.6 trillion yuan, which is 381.2 billion yuan more than the previous year, indicating that non-bank deposits and household deposits are not mutually exclusive [5][6]. - Non-financial corporate deposits also saw rapid growth, increasing by 2.3 trillion yuan, with demand deposits rising by 5.3 trillion yuan year-on-year [5]. Group 2: Asset Management Products Impact - Asset management products significantly influenced the deposit structure, with 4.6 trillion yuan added to deposits and certificates of deposit in 2025, accounting for 50% of the new underlying assets in asset management products [6][7]. - By the end of 2025, total assets of asset management products reached 119.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.1% [6]. Group 3: Monthly Performance and Trends - In December 2025, RMB deposits increased by 1.68 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.08 trillion yuan, and the month-end growth rate rose to 8.7% [5][8]. - The M2 balance at the end of December 2025 was 340.29 trillion yuan, growing by 8.5% year-on-year, while M1 growth slowed to 3.8% [8][9]. - The widening M2-M1 gap increased from 3.1 percentage points to 4.7 percentage points, indicating a trend of funds being converted into demand deposits [9].

Group 1 - The Beijing Stock Exchange will hold its 8th review meeting on January 23, 2026, to evaluate Shenzhen Toptech Technology Co., Ltd.'s application for listing [1] - Toptech plans to raise 359.43 million yuan for its smart controller expansion project and research center construction [1] - The sponsor for this listing is GF Securities Co., Ltd., with representatives Liu Yuming and Wan Xiaobing [1] Group 2 - As of the signing date of the prospectus, Huaxin Holdings directly holds 37.96 million shares, accounting for 82.11% of the company, making it the controlling shareholder [1] - Liu Xiaoxiong directly holds 41.00% of Huaxin Holdings, while Zou Jian holds 33.00%, together controlling 74.00% of Huaxin Holdings [1] - Liu Xiaoxiong and Zou Jian signed a "Joint Action Agreement" on November 19, 2020, to ensure consistent voting in shareholder and board meetings, with Liu Xiaoxiong's opinion prevailing in case of disagreement [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China reported that in 2025, the total increase in RMB deposits reached 26.41 trillion yuan, with significant contributions from non-bank financial institutions and asset management products [3][4]. Group 1: Deposit Growth - In 2025, deposits from non-bank financial institutions increased by 6.41 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.8 trillion yuan, the highest since 2015 [5][6]. - Household deposits grew steadily, adding 14.6 trillion yuan, which is 381.2 billion yuan more than the previous year, indicating that non-bank deposits and household deposits are not mutually exclusive [7]. - Non-financial corporate deposits also saw a significant increase of 2.3 trillion yuan, up 2.6 trillion yuan year-on-year, with demand deposits rising by 5.3 trillion yuan [7]. Group 2: Asset Management Products - Asset management products played a crucial role in the increase of non-bank deposits, with total assets reaching 119.9 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, a year-on-year growth of 13.1% [8]. - In 2025, the underlying assets of asset management products included 4.6 trillion yuan in deposits and certificates of deposit, accounting for 50% of the new underlying assets, which significantly boosted non-bank financial institution deposits [8]. Group 3: M2 and M1 Trends - As of December 2025, M2 reached 340.29 trillion yuan, growing by 8.5% year-on-year, while M1 increased by 3.8%, indicating a widening gap between M2 and M1 [10][11]. - The M2-M1 gap expanded from 3.1 percentage points to 4.7 percentage points, although it remains at a relatively low level compared to recent years [11]. - The increase in M1 was influenced by high base effects from the previous year, but the absolute increase of 2.6 trillion yuan in December was the second highest since 2019 [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the growth of asset management products has significantly influenced the structure of deposits in China, with non-bank financial institutions seeing a notable increase in deposits [1][3][4] - In 2025, the total increase in RMB deposits reached 26.41 trillion yuan, with non-bank financial institution deposits rising by 6.41 trillion yuan, marking the highest increase since 2015 [2][3] - The increase in non-bank deposits is attributed to asset management products, which accounted for 50% of the new underlying assets, contributing to the growth of non-bank financial institution deposits [1][3] Group 2 - The growth of household deposits remained stable, increasing by 14.6 trillion yuan in 2025, indicating that non-bank deposits and household deposits are not mutually exclusive [2][3] - Non-financial corporate deposits also saw significant growth, with an increase of 2.3 trillion yuan, including a notable rise in demand deposits [2][3] - The monthly performance in December 2025 showed a new increase of 1.68 trillion yuan in RMB deposits, with a year-on-year increase of 3.08 trillion yuan, reflecting a strong end-of-year performance [2][5] Group 3 - The total assets of asset management products reached 119.9 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 13.1% [3] - The increase in asset management products was driven by funds raised from households and non-financial enterprises, which rose by 4 trillion yuan and 1 trillion yuan, respectively [3][4] - The M2 balance at the end of December 2025 was 340.29 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, while M1 growth was at 3.8%, indicating a widening M2-M1 gap [5][6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the adjustment of the minimum margin requirement for margin trading in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, increasing it from 80% to 100% for new margin contracts, which reflects a regulatory approach to stabilize the market and manage leverage [2][3] - The adjustment is expected to lead to a slowdown in the growth of margin financing in the short term, but it will create a more stable overall business environment for the securities industry [3] - The securities sector is anticipated to benefit from the migration of household deposits and the reconstruction of the stock market mechanism, which will support the growth of wealth management, investment banking, and institutional business [2][3] Group 2 - The adjustment of the margin requirement is seen as a measure to guide the market towards a healthier and more sustainable medium to long-term trend, similar to adjustments made in 2015 [2] - Companies in the securities industry, particularly those with strong capital and risk management capabilities, are recommended for investment opportunities [3] - The news highlights several Chinese securities firms listed in Hong Kong, including Huatai Securities, GF Securities, and China Galaxy, among others, indicating a broad interest in the sector [4]