证券研究报告 公用环保 量化测算 Token 出海对中国电力的弹性 ——AI 能否带动电力提前跨越周期底部 II 华泰研究 2026 年 3 月 03 日│中国内地 深度研究 但随着硬件架构迭代，卡单 token 的成本下降，能源价格在全球 AI 竞争中 的重要性与日俱增。据我们测算，千万亿级全球日均 token 用量对中国电量 和电力或有 10%级别弹性，对绿证价格、容量电价甚至电量电价的拉动显 著。推荐：1）低估值的绿电，有望充分受益于 AIDC 清洁能耗需求；2）推 理时代电力瓶颈的出现大概率先于电量，容量电价市场化利好火电；3）重 申我们 1 月报告《中美电价剪刀差——中国电力股何时见底 I》的结论，2026 年开始电力供给侧降速，电力板块步入配置窗口，token 出海只是锦上添花。 推理时代，Token 出海对中国电量/电力的潜在拉动超过 10% 训练时代，海外大模型由于数据管制不会布局核心算力在中国，国内大模型 本土 AIDC 的需求增长又受制于国产芯片能力。推理时代，Anthropic/OpenAI 等海外企业部署边缘算力在中国的探索逐步成熟，而国内大模型的规模效应 与成本优势在 token 竞 ...

Overview - The report emphasizes "profit certainty" and "policy resonance" as key themes, indicating a shift in market dynamics from "expectation speculation" to "profit verification" as macro policies and corporate earnings reports converge in March [5][6]. Market Insights - The macro strategy team highlights that the market is currently pricing in a pause from the Federal Reserve in March, with the focus on domestic growth signals becoming clearer as the "Two Sessions" will reveal annual economic targets and fiscal details [5][6]. - The report anticipates that the Hong Kong stock market will likely experience a revaluation in March, driven by passive fund adjustments and a focus on the quality of free cash flow and ROE improvements by long-term institutional investors [5][6]. Key Variables for March - The report identifies three main variables to watch in March: 1. The effectiveness of policy implementation from the "Two Sessions," focusing on GDP growth targets and fiscal measures [6]. 2. Corporate earnings guidance and share buyback activities during the earnings season [6]. 3. The Federal Reserve's guidance on future interest rate cuts, particularly regarding the summer window [6]. Industry Allocation - The report suggests a "barbell strategy" focusing on sectors with profit certainty and policy resonance: 1. **Internet and New Economy Growth**: Emphasis on head internet platforms with low valuations and increased buyback activities, alongside AI applications and smart driving assets [7]. 2. **Hard Technology and Overseas Manufacturing**: Focus on high visibility in semiconductor processes and equipment, as well as resilient demand in engineering machinery and appliances [7]. 3. **Global Pricing of Upstream Resources**: Metals like gold, copper, and aluminum are highlighted as inflation hedges amid global manufacturing recovery [7]. 4. **Low-Volatility Dividend Assets**: Telecom operators and core hydropower assets are noted for their defensive value [7]. Company-Specific Insights - **Cheung Kong Property Trust (778HK)**: Target price of 5.92 HKD with an 8.8% upside, driven by stable earnings and high dividend yield [10][11]. - **NVIDIA (NVDAUS)**: Target price of 260 USD with a 40.6% upside, supported by strong demand for AI chips and a robust supply chain [13][15]. - **Broadcom (AVGOUS)**: Target price of 460 USD with a 43.0% upside, driven by anticipated growth in AI revenue [23][25]. - **Xpeng Motors (9868HK)**: Target price of 134.69 HKD with a 97.1% upside, driven by new vehicle launches and overseas expansion [30][35]. - **Sihuan Pharmaceutical (2096HK)**: Target price of 16.40 HKD with a 32.3% upside, supported by new product launches and strong revenue growth [37][39]. - **Pop Mart (9992HK)**: Target price of 401.60 HKD with a 74.8% upside, focusing on IP platform strategy and overseas market growth [43][45]. - **China Resources Power (836HK)**: Target price of 21.50 HKD with a 12.7% upside, driven by renewable energy growth and stable dividend yield [48][50].

必用意亦 券研究报 证券分析师 王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 博浩玮 A0230522010001 fuhw@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 算力对区域电力影响更大 地缘ł 短期气价或再现高波动 申万公用环保周报(26/2/23~26/2/27) 2026 年 03 月 02 日 版》 中文 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 电力：中国发电供给充裕，煤电托底高度匹配算力需求。截至 2025 年底，全国发电装机容量 389134 万千瓦，同比增长 16.1%。其中火电装机占比 40%，太阳能发电和风电装机容量分别同比增加 35.4%、22.9%，在风光的快速增长下，清 洁能源的占比大幅提高。发电量 2025 年 1-12 月份，规上工业发电量 97159 亿千瓦时，同 ...

第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.2.0 FF301 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動及足夠公眾持股量的確認 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 | 截至月份: | 2026年2月28日 | 狀態: 新提交 | | --- | --- | --- | | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 | | | | 公司名稱: | 華潤電力控股有限公司 | | | 呈交日期: | 2026年3月2日 | | | I. 法定/註冊股本變動 不適用 | | | FF301 1. 股份分類 普通股 股份類別 不適用 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) 是 證券代號 (如上市) 00836 說明 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 庫存股份數目 已發行股份總數 上月底結存 5,177,057,740 0 5,177,057,740 增加 / 減少 (-) 0 0 本月底結存 5,177,057,740 0 5,177,057,740 足夠公眾持股量的確認(註4) | 根據《主板上市規則》第13.32D(1)條或第19A.28D(1)條 / 《GEM上市規則》第17.37D(1)條或第25.21D ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and environmental sectors, indicating a "Buy" recommendation for companies involved in these industries [1]. Core Insights - The power supply in China is abundant, with a projected installed capacity of 389,134 MW by the end of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.1%. The share of coal power is 40%, while solar and wind power capacities have increased by 35.4% and 22.9% respectively [2][6]. - The "East Data West Computing" project aims to establish a new computing network system, enhancing electricity demand in key provinces [8]. - Natural gas prices are expected to rise globally by 2025, influenced by geopolitical factors and supply-demand dynamics [2][40]. - The report highlights the significant role of coal power in stabilizing electricity supply, particularly for high-energy-consuming digital infrastructure [12]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector - The installed capacity of power generation in China is projected to reach 389,134 MW by the end of 2025, with a 16.1% increase year-on-year. Coal power accounts for 40% of this capacity, while solar and wind power are rapidly growing [2][6]. - The overall clean energy share is increasing, with coal power contributing 65% of the total electricity generation [6][7]. - The "East Data West Computing" initiative is expected to drive higher electricity consumption in provinces like Guizhou, Zhejiang, and Hebei, with growth rates of 7.7%, 7.2%, and 7.1% respectively [8]. 2. Natural Gas Sector - Global natural gas prices are anticipated to rise by 2025, with the US Henry Hub spot price expected to average $3.51 per million British thermal units, a 59.7% increase year-on-year [40]. - The report notes that geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, could lead to increased volatility in gas prices [2][20]. - The report recommends focusing on integrated natural gas companies and those benefiting from lower costs and improved supply dynamics [41]. 3. Environmental Sector - The report discusses the introduction of subsidies for green hydrogen projects in Yunnan, which could accelerate the development of the hydrogen and ammonia industry [2]. - Companies such as CIMC Enric and others are recommended for their potential benefits from these developments [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of zero-carbon parks in enhancing green electricity consumption and reducing energy costs for computing enterprises [16].

电力 2026 年 03 月 02 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 电力 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《电改持续深化，电力设备需求有望 延续高景气—电力行业 2026 春季策 略》-2026.2.22 《加快构建现代化基础设施体系，加 大核聚变技术攻关—可控核聚变行业 周报》-2025.12.29 ——行业投资策略 | 王高展（分析师） | 黄懿轩（联系人） | | --- | --- | | wanggaozhan@kysec.cn | huangyixuan1@kysec.cn | huangyixuan1@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125070014 行业回顾：红利风格表现不佳，电力需求平稳增长 2025 年，A 股红利风格板块整体表现不佳。2025 年，电力需求维持平稳增长， 我国全社会用电 10.37 万亿千瓦时，同比增长 5.0%。预计十五五期间我国将呈 现"宽电量、紧电力"的电力供需格局，综合电价有望企稳。 电力：电价下探、补贴退坡，电力体制改革步入深水区 《TMTG 并购 ...

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2026 年 3 月 2 日 今日焦点 每月金股 三月研选：聚焦"盈利确定性"与"政策共振" 交银国际研究团队 全国"两会"定调与企业年报"大考"交汇，港股交易逻辑由"预期博 弈"转向"盈利验真"。 3 月关注变量： 1）全国"两会"政策兑现成色；2）年报业绩指引与企 业回购力度；3）美联储 3 月 FOMC 会议。 行业配置聚焦"盈利确定性"与"政策共振"，哑铃策略再平衡。1）互 联网与新经济成长；2）硬科技与出海制造；3）全球定价的上游资源 品；4）红利低波资产。 三月金股组合： 置富产业信托（778 HK） | 英伟达 | | NVDA US | | --- | --- | --- | | 长期增长能见度增强，期待 | GTC 产品路线图，上 | 评级: 买入 | | 调目标价 | | | | 收盘价: 美元 184.89 | 目标价: 美元 260.00↑ | 潜在涨幅: +40.6% | | 王大卫, PhD, CFA | Dawei.wang@bocomgroup.com | | FY1Q27 收入指引 780 亿美元：FY4Q26 收入 681 亿美元，高于之前指引 中位 ...

证券研究报告 公用事业 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 01 日 投资评级： 看好（维持） 证券分析师 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 邓思平 SAC：S1350524070003 dengsiping@huayuanstock.com 联系人 豆鹏超 doupengchao@huayuanstock.com 重视"双碳"考核 重点氢能项目总结 ——大能源行业 2026 年第 8 周周报（20260301） 投资要点： 电力：重视"双碳"考核及绿电消纳 "十五五"开局之年，计划与市场转型关键期，重申重视"双碳"考核。从考核看 投资方向，1）存量角度看配额机制，参考发电企业碳配额交易情况看，预计钢铁、 水泥、铝冶炼进入碳市场后，将进一步从"绿色"的角度加快供给侧出清，上述高 耗能企业承担"绿色"转型责任。2）增量角度看绿电需求，考虑到"十五五"期间 考核指标从能耗转为碳排放，有利于高耗能企业增强清洁能源的使用，其中绿证 ...

港股三大指数今日反弹，恒指及恒科指数均一度涨超1%。截至收盘，恒生指数涨0.95%或249.52点，报 26630.54点，全日成交额2884.2亿港元；恒生国企指数涨0.51%，报8859.49点；恒生科技指数涨0.56%， 报5137.84点。全月来看，恒指累跌2.76%，国指累跌4.91%，恒科指数累跌10.15%。 摩根士丹利报告指出，A股投资情绪指标在农历新年后随成交量回升及对两会预期升温而有所改善。但 受人工智能颠覆影响的担忧及竞争压力，离岸中资股仍面临挑战。大型平台公司的AI能力提升、盈利 改善及外部市场的稳定将是未来的观察关键。 蓝筹股表现 新鸿基地产(00016)创新高。截至收盘，涨7.12%，报146港元，成交额22.96亿港元，贡献恒指22.72点。 摩根大通研报指出，新鸿基地产2026上半财年盈利按年增长17%，远高于该行预期的4%增幅，主要受 惠于中国内地发展物业利润远超预期。这是三年来新地首次提高中期股息3%，此举显示管理层的信 心。 其他蓝筹股方面，药明生物(02269)涨5.07%，报40.22港元，贡献恒指11.5点；中国神华（601088） (01088)涨4.03%，报4 ...

东方证券发布研报称，该行指出，2026年我国各省份煤电容量电价补偿比例持续提升，叠加现货市场在 全国范围内全面铺开，火电将逐步从基荷电源向调节性电源转变，其商业模式改善已初见端倪。预计 2026年火电行业分红能力及分红意愿均有望持续提升。 电力股午后涨幅扩大，截至发稿，华能国际(00902)涨6.54%，报6.03港元；大唐发电(00991)涨5.22%， 报2.62港元；华电国际(01071)跌4.46%，报4.45港元；华润电力(00836)涨1.81%，报18.59港元。 消息面上，近期，国务院办公厅正式印发《关于完善全国统一电力市场体系的实施意见》。国盛证券南 发布研报称，全国统一电力市场顶层设计出台，电力资源的电能量、调节、环境、容量等多维价值将全 面由市场反映，电力板块有望迎来盈利改善和价值重估。 来源：智通财经网 ...