证券研究报告：农林牧渔|行业周报 发布时间：2026-03-03 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 2961.5 | | 52 | 周最高 | 3158.8 | | 52 | 周最低 | 2478.53 | 行业相对指数表现 -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 24% 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 2025-10 2025-12 2026-02 农林牧渔 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:王琦 SAC 登记编号:S1340522100001 Email:wangqi2022@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《现代化为矛，稳定生产为盾》 - 2026.02.11 农林牧渔行业报告 （2026.2.24-2026.2.28） 猪价创新低 ⚫ 行情回顾：上涨 节后第一周，农林牧渔（申万）指数大幅涨 4.01%，在申万 31 个 一级行业中排名第 14。农业子板块中，除水产养殖外，其余子板块均 上涨。其中节前跌幅较大的种植业、种子等板块反弹较多；而养殖板 块则继 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨农产品 [Table_Title] 农业周专题系列一：生猪价格全面走弱，产能市 场化出清或正式开启 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 春节后猪价全面走低，全行业亏损时间基本已超 5 个月，养殖产能市场化出清或正式开启。我 们认为养殖产能去化是一个持续的过程，成本高的养殖主体会率先实现去化，周期下行阶段养 殖成本的竞争力也将成为企业最核心的竞争力。本轮周期或将带来养殖行业竞争格局的持续优 化，真正有成本优势以及现金流的企业有望迎来更长盈利周期。全面看好养殖板块，重点推荐 低成本以及现金流具有优势的养殖企业：温氏股份、德康农牧、神农集团，建议关注巨星农牧， 立华股份和天康生物。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490513080003 SAC：S0490519060003 SAC：S0490525080006 SFC：BQT624 陈佳 顾熀乾 卜凡星 刘文一 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 农业周专题系列一：生猪价格全面走弱，产能市 2] 场化出清或正 ...

【国金农业】再次强调牧场与生猪投资机会 随着天气逐步转暖以及南方补栏需求的提升，节后价格有望快速上涨。 中期来看行业产能去化幅度巨大，牛价有望破历史新高，看好肉奶共振的牧业大周期。 #重点推荐：优然牧业、现代牧业、中国圣牧等，以及关注受益的紫燕食品、光明肉业等。 节后散奶价的偏弱运行使得板块近期存在调整，淡季乳企本就会适当减少收奶量从而增加散奶供给，目前的价格 明显优于去年同期，而且散奶价格的下跌利好行业产能进一步去化，中期奶价反转趋势不变。 牛肉端来看：#冻品价格持续上涨，目前均价54.4元/公斤，周环比+1.7%，上涨驱动为下游补库和一致看多情绪。 牛市正月十五之前交易量较小，目前公牛犊成交价格稳定在40 【国金农业】再次强调牧场与生猪投资机会 节后散奶价的偏弱运行使得板块近期存在调整，淡季乳企本就会适当减少收奶量从而增加散奶供给，目前的价格 明显优于去年同期，而且散奶价格的下跌利好行业产能进一步去化，中期奶价反转趋势不变。 牛肉端来看：#冻品价格持续上涨，目前均价54.4元/公斤，周环比+1.7%，上涨驱动为下游补库和一致看多情绪。 牛市正月十五之前交易量较小，目前公牛犊成交价格稳定在40元/公斤左右， ...

在私募行业蓬勃发展的几十年中，公募基金经理"奔私"潮持续涌动，这背后既有个人在职业天花板的突围，亦有平台派系更迭引发的变动。从早年王亚伟、 邱国鹭开风气之先，到近年董承非、周应波等人自立门户，"公奔私"基金经理已经成为私募行业的一个重要派系，甚至不少是自身私募机构的核心人物，掌 舵着公司的整体投研方向。 私募排排网数据显示，截至2026年1月底，"公奔私"基金经理共有859位。其中，头部私募旗下的"公奔私"基金经理共有87位，占比10.13%。 接下来，笔者将划分百亿私募（规模100亿以上）、准百亿私募（规模50-100亿）两个规模组，为大家盘点头部私募（规模50亿以上）旗下"公奔私"基金经 理的代表人物。 | 8 | 崔童 | 股票 | 18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 | 邓晓峰 | 股票 | 25 | | 10 | 董承非 | 股票 | 24 | | 11 | 杜昌勇 | 股票 | 30 | | 12 | 杜骐臻 | 股票 | 14 | | 13 | 归江 | 股票 | 28 | | 14 | 韩冬 | 股票 | 18 | | 15 | 韩海峰 | 组合基金 | 12 ...

| 证券代码：603477 | 证券简称：巨星农牧 | 公告编号：2026-019 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：113648 | 债券简称：巨星转债 | | 乐山巨星农牧股份有限公司 2026 年 1 月份担保情况的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： | | | 巨星农牧有限公司、德昌巨星农牧科 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 技有限公司、平塘巨星农牧有限公 司、泸县巨星农牧科技有限公司、古 | | | | 蔺巨星农牧有限公司、剑阁巨星农牧 | | | | 有限公司、乐山市巨星科技有限公 | | | | 司、屏山巨星农牧有限公司、乐山巨 | | | | 星生物科技有限公司、眉山市彭山永 | | | | 祥饲料有限责任公司、广元巨星农业 | | | 被担保人名称 | 有限公司、叙永巨星农牧有限公司、 | | | | 乐山巨星农业发展有限公司、邛崃巨 | | | | 星农牧有限公司、重庆巨星农牧有限 | | | | 公司、安徽巨星农牧有限公司、 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：博亚和讯） 春节期间生猪价格先涨后跌，节后跌破11元/kg；种鸡场挺价拉涨，肉鸡苗价格小幅上涨；鸡蛋价格跌 至2.8元/斤，淘汰鸡价格反弹；关税风波再起，节后国内豆粕稳中震荡；补库需求提振，华北玉米价格 小幅上涨；鱼粉市场高位运行；国内维生素E厂商密集涨价、赖氨酸报价坚挺……博亚和讯现将节日期 间畜牧市场、行业、企业重点信息进行汇总，供大家参考。 NEWS 市场动态 | ਸ਼ਾ 区 | 日前 | | 外三元生猪价格(元/kg) | | | 外三元.仔猪(元/kg.20kg体重) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2026年 | 2月14日 | 2月24日 | 趋势 | 2月14日 | 2月24日 | 趋势 | | 东北 | 黑龙江 | 11.51 | 10.71 | 7 | 24.55 | 24.55 | → | | | 吉林 | 11.45 | 10.60 | 7 | 24.51 | 24.51 | - | | | 辽宁 | 11.60 | 10.80 | 7 | 24.51 | 24.51 | -> ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall profitability of the pig industry is expected to decline in 2025 due to fluctuations in the market, with several listed pig companies forecasting significant drops in net profits compared to the previous year [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - Muyuan Foods is expected to report a net profit of 14.7 billion to 15.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.2% to 17.79% year-on-year [1]. - Wens Foodstuff Group anticipates a net profit of 5 billion to 5.5 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 40.73% to 46.12% year-on-year [1]. - New Hope Group forecasts a loss of 1.8 billion to 1.5 billion yuan, compared to a profit of 474 million yuan in the previous year [1]. - Other companies like Tangrenshen and Juxing Agriculture are also expected to see declines in profits from pig farming in 2025 [1]. Group 2: Market Price Trends - In 2025, the price of live pigs (external three yuan) is projected to decrease by approximately 17% compared to 2024, with prices fluctuating from 15-16 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to 11-12 yuan/kg in the fourth quarter [1]. - The price of live pigs showed a downward trend throughout 2025, starting from 16.1 yuan/kg in early January and reaching a low of 10.9 yuan/kg by mid-October [2]. Group 3: Supply and Production Capacity - The supply of live pigs is expected to remain ample throughout 2025, prompting authorities to emphasize the need for capacity regulation measures, including the reduction of breeding sows and control of pig weights [6]. - As of the end of Q4 2025, the number of breeding sows was reported at 39.61 million, which is 101.6% of the normal holding capacity, indicating a slight decrease in capacity [7]. - The production efficiency in the pig farming industry has significantly improved, with the number of weaned piglets per sow per year (PSY) increasing to around 26, with some leading companies nearing 29 [7]. Group 4: Future Price Outlook - Many institutions predict that the supply side may tighten in the second half of 2026, potentially leading to a cyclical rebound in pig prices [7]. - The pig industry may face pressure in the first half of 2026, but this period could also serve as a favorable window for capacity reduction [8]. - The ongoing market dynamics suggest that while there may be a rebound in prices, the extent of this rebound could be limited if capacity reduction is not thorough [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The report anticipates that pig prices in 2026 will be lower than market expectations, leading the industry into a significant loss phase. This will mark a major capacity reduction cycle, which is expected to result in substantial stock price increases for the sector [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Pig Price Trends in 2025 - The average pig price for 2025 was 13.7 yuan/kg, with a downward trend observed throughout the year, particularly in the fourth quarter where prices ranged between 11.5 and 12.5 yuan/kg [7]. 2. 2026 Pig Price Forecast - The report predicts that the average pig price for 2026 will likely be below 12 yuan/kg, with the second half of the year not showing improvement over the first half [17][32]. 3. Capacity Reduction Cycle - The current capacity reduction cycle is expected to last approximately three years, marking the largest cycle since 2021. This cycle is characterized by a more equitable competition among all farming entities due to the diminished impact of African swine fever [34][38]. 4. Stock Price Increase Potential - The report suggests that the stock prices in the pig farming sector will experience significant upward movement driven by the ongoing capacity reduction. Key companies to focus on include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Tian Kang Biological [3][4]. 5. Supply Dynamics - The report emphasizes that an increase in the number of breeding sows does not necessarily correlate with an increase in supply. The actual supply has been significantly boosted by improved production efficiency and a reduction in loss rates since the decline of African swine fever [20][23]. 6. Important Time Points - Two critical time points are highlighted: post-Chinese New Year, where prices typically drop, and around May/June when piglet prices are expected to fall below cost, accelerating capacity reduction [4][44].

三、特别说明与风险提示 证券代码：603477 证券简称：巨星农牧 公告编号：2026-018 债券代码：113648 债券简称：巨星转债 乐山巨星农牧股份有限公司 2026年1月养殖业务销售情况简报 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 乐山巨星农牧股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）现将2026年1月养殖业务销售情况披露如下： 一、2026年1月养殖业务销售情况 ■ 1、上述披露信息仅包含公司养殖业务的商品肥猪销售情况，不包括其他业务和其他产品。 2、上述销售数据来源于公司内部统计，未经审计，与定期报告披露的数据之间可能存在差异，上述销 售数据仅作为阶段性数据供投资者参考。因四舍五入，以上数据可能存在尾差。商品肥猪销价为当月销 售均价。 3、生猪市场价格的大幅波动（下降或上升）与动物疫病是生猪养殖行业的系统性风险，对任何一家生 猪养殖生产者来讲都是客观存在的、不可控制的外部风险，可能会对公司的经营业绩产生重大影响。 敬请广大投资者审慎决策，理性投资，注意风险。 特此公告。 乐山巨星农牧股份有限公司董事会 2026年2 ...

Group 1 - RuiLian New Materials reported a total operating revenue of 1.677 billion yuan for 2025, an increase of 14.95% year-on-year, with a net profit of 311 million yuan, up 23.48% year-on-year [1] - China Shenhua's subsidiary, Guoneng Qingyuan Power, successfully put its fourth generator unit into commercial operation, expected to provide approximately 20 billion kWh of clean energy annually [2] - Qijiang Airlines announced a 6.04% year-on-year decline in passenger turnover for January 2026, with a passenger load factor of 84.03%, up 1.61% year-on-year [3] Group 2 - QiZheng Tibetan Medicine reported a total operating revenue of 2.416 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.34%, with a net profit of 646 million yuan, up 10.98% year-on-year [5] - QiaoYin Co. announced the termination of its artificial intelligence industry headquarters project due to changes in investment cooperation conditions [6] - New Point Software plans to use 90.81 million yuan of surplus raised funds for new projects, including AI-driven software development [7] Group 3 - High Measurement Co. announced plans for major shareholders and executives to reduce their holdings by up to 3.19% of the company's shares [8] - SAIC Group's subsidiary plans to establish a private equity fund with an initial scale of 2.5 billion yuan, focusing on solid-state batteries and chip localization [9] - Tianqi Lithium announced the resignation of its deputy general manager due to personal career planning [10] Group 4 - ZhongKong Technology reported a total operating revenue of 8.051 billion yuan for 2025, a decrease of 11.90%, with a net profit of 450 million yuan, down 59.70% year-on-year [11] - Spring Airlines reported a 6.28% year-on-year increase in total passenger volume for January 2026, with a total available ton-kilometers of 57,008.37 [12] - Qifan Cable's controlling shareholder reduced its stake by 3% through various trading methods [13] Group 5 - China Chemical signed contracts worth a total of 36.925 billion yuan in January 2026, with significant contracts exceeding 5 billion yuan totaling 11.371 billion yuan [19] - SaiTuo Bio received a CEP certificate for its raw material drug Betamethasone, which is used to treat allergies and autoimmune inflammation [20] - Giant Star Agriculture reported a sales revenue of 649 million yuan from commodity fat pigs in January 2026, with a sales volume of 404,400 pigs [23] Group 6 - Qinglong Pipe Industry's subsidiary won a 146 million yuan pipeline project [24] - Changshan Pharmaceutical announced that some of its products are expected to be selected for national centralized procurement [26] - Yangdian Technology completed the transfer of 12.96% of its shares through an agreement [27] Group 7 - Deepin Technology's investment fund introduced new limited partners and adjusted the capital contributions of some partners [28] - Qingyun Technology plans to pledge 25% of its shares for a loan application of up to 30 million yuan [29] - LaiMei Pharmaceutical reported a 57.20% year-on-year decline in net profit for 2025 [30] Group 8 - YouLiDe reported a 16.88% year-on-year decline in net profit for 2025, with total operating revenue of 1.221 billion yuan, up 7.99% [31] - Warner Pharmaceutical reported a net profit of 241 million yuan for 2025, an increase of 46.95% year-on-year [32] - LianRui New Materials reported a net profit of 293 million yuan for 2025, an increase of 16.42% year-on-year [33] Group 9 - HuaQin Technology expects a 24.28% year-on-year decrease in net profit for 2025, with projected revenue of 1.251 billion yuan, up 9.83% [34] - QiPai Technology's shareholder subscribed for 6.3 million shares, accounting for 5.49% of the total share capital [35] - Qilin Security's shareholders completed their planned share reductions without exceeding the original plan [36] Group 10 - Dameng Data announced the lifting of the detention of its senior vice president, allowing him to resume his duties [37] - Haiyou Engineering won a contract for the "NFPS COMP5" project worth approximately 4 billion USD, with the company's share exceeding 800 million USD [38] - Yatai Group plans to sell 20.81% of its shares in Northeast Securities, pending confirmation of financial statements [39]