七年前，美国要求我们自毁长城，不准中国搞制造2025，不准中国进行产业升级，不准中国威胁到美国在高科技行业的霸主地位。 你们以前用8亿件衬衫换一架波音客机，以后也只能是打工的命。 不允许你翻身做老板，更不允许你14亿中国人过上像美国那样的好日子。 七年后，美国参众两院的议员看着眼前报告，发出不可思议的呐喊： 中国已成全球高端制造强国、美国失去了科技霸主的宝座、人类科技的皇冠迎来新王。 这是一个关于误判、傲慢与反转的故事。故事的开头并非现在，而是七年前那场声势浩大的"围剿"。 当时，华盛顿的政客们在办公桌上甩出一份极具侮辱性的清单，试图为东方大国的工业发展按下暂停键。 而七年后的今天，当一份来自美国国会核心机构的重磅报告摆在他们面前时，那原本充满优越感的空气中，如今只弥漫着令人窒息的沉默与难以置信的错 愕。 哪怕是国内曾经也不乏悲观的声音，有人曾断言如果不举起双手投降，科技倒退回封建时代只是时间问题，交通变回马车，通讯靠吼，仿佛现代化的大门是 由西方人把守的，一旦关上，屋内便是黑暗。 然而，历史最爱开这种充满讽刺意味的玩笑。美中经济与安全评估委员会这份最新的调查结论，就像是一记响亮的耳光，打在了当年所有鼓吹"投 ...

全球供应链，说白了就是谁家更靠谱谁就赢。过去几年，大家都盯着印度和越南这些地方，以为能接棒中国当制造业新宠儿。结果呢？风向变了快，尤其是 今年特朗普上台后一通关税操作，把印度搞得措手不及。制造业大佬们开始琢磨，中国的基础设施稳，市场大，技术也跟得上，还是得回来多投点。 印度从2014年就开始推"印度制造"计划，目标是到2025年制造业占GDP的25%。当时不少企业觉得机会来了，劳动力便宜，人口红利大。苹果的供应商富士 康从2019年起就在印度建厂，组装手机啥的。三星也在越南和印度砸钱，生产电子产品。 2020年疫情一闹，供应链多元化成了热门词，印度和越南确实捞到不少好处。印度电子出口从2019年的50亿美元蹿到2023年的150亿美元，越南纺织电子也 涨势凶猛。政府还搞生产挂钩激励，补贴电子企业，富士康2022年扩产，雇了好几万人。 越南靠自由贸易协定，拉来耐克阿迪达斯这些品牌。企业们图啥？避开中美贸易摩擦的风险呗。2018年后，关税一层层加，逼得公司分散产能。中国份额降 了，其他地方补上。到2024年初，印度外资流入制造业高峰，越南也稳住8%的占比。印度街头卖的本地组装手机多了，越南年轻人进城打工，经济有点 ...

文 | 古书奇谭 编辑 | 古书奇谭 2024年中美GDP呈现诡异反差，汇率换算下中国18.74万亿美元对上美国29.18万亿美元，看似差距拉大，但购买力平价（PPP）核算中，中国38.19万亿国 际元较美国高出31%，达1.31倍。 鲜为人知的是，2016年中国PPPGDP就以19.65万亿国际元反超美国，为何两种算法差这么多？8年从反超到拉开31%差距，未来真能如马斯克所言达美国 两到三倍？ 汇率GDP的失真陷阱 全球默认用汇率换算的美元GDP衡量经济规模，可这种方式有个致命缺陷，完全忽略各国物价差异，这也是中国经济长期被低估的关键。 生活里的例子最直观，美国纽约、洛杉矶的男性理发，一次要30-60美元，而中国北京、上海、深圳的同档次服务，也就30-60元人民币。 同样的服务体验，按实际能买到的东西算，人民币和美元这会儿几乎是1:1，但换算成美元GDP时，中国理发行业创造的价值就硬生生变成了美国的七分 之一。 这种失真在历史上更明显，1987年是中美GDP差距的峰值，按汇率算，中国0.273万亿美元的GDP只相当于美国4.86万亿美元的1/18。 而人均GDP更是只有美国的1/80，这种悬殊让当时不少人都 ...

Core Insights - The essence of the China-US competition is highlighted by Huang Qifan, indicating that China's manufacturing value added is twice that of the US, covering all industrial categories globally [1] - China's export of equipment manufacturing has surpassed 90%, marking a transition from "shirt for planes" to "independent full industrial chain" [1] - The trade war initiated by Trump inadvertently boosted China's export to $3.3 trillion, with automobile exports reaching 6 million units, exceeding the combined total of the US, Japan, and Germany [1] Industry Analysis - The essence of the industrial chain war is emphasized, with China leveraging its mature process chips (70% of the global 28nm+ market) to counteract US technology blockades [1] - The "high value-added upgrade + dual circulation strategy" has allowed China to transfer low-end production capacity to Southeast Asia while building land-based trade routes like the China-Europe Railway Express and the China-Laos Railway [1] - Huang Qifan asserts that the US's strategy of "manufacturing return" has failed, while China is achieving full-chain digitalization through industrial internet, significantly enhancing production efficiency [1] Technological Landscape - China is accelerating its layout in five key areas: new energy (over 60% global share in photovoltaics/storage), AI large models (Huawei Ascend series breakthroughs), and biomedicine [1] - In response to the US's 3nm chip blockade, China is focusing on the mature process that meets 80% of market demand, employing a "change track" strategy to dismantle technological bottlenecks [1] - Huang Qifan emphasizes that the transformation of the industrial internet has tripled the response speed of Chinese factories, an ecological advantage that the US cannot replicate [1] Currency Strategy - Currently, the proportion of RMB settlement is less than 3%, which is significantly imbalanced compared to its 17% contribution to GDP [1] - Huang Qifan proposes a "Belt and Road + digital currency" strategy to bind trade settlement through infrastructure, using capital controls to build a financial moat [1] - He predicts that when RMB settlement surpasses 25%, the US dollar's hegemony will face substantial challenges [1] Strategic Predictions - The long-term industrial chain battle indicates that the US's attempts to ally with India and Southeast Asia will not shake China's dual advantages of "industrial cluster + technological upgrade" [2] - The technology war is evolving from hardware blockades to competition in productive services, necessitating the cultivation of "Huawei-style leading enterprises" in China [2] - The currency battle is expected to be prolonged, with the digital RMB's cross-border payment pilot covering 130 countries, gradually undermining the US dollar system [2]

【文/观察者网 阮佳琪】 美国国会下设的"美中经济与安全评估委员会"（USCC）自2000年成立以来，几乎每年11月都会向国会 提交年度报告，报告中不乏虚张声势的炒作内容，通篇充斥着对中国发展的戒备与敌视，素有中美关 系"麻烦制造者"之称。 尽管农业机械、新材料、航空、半导体等领域仍面临诸多挑战，但报告也认可，即便在这些没有完全达 成具体目标的领域，中国仍取得了显著的产业发展成果。 据香港《南华早报》18日报道，该"委员会"近期又发布了一份关于"中国制造2025"计划（MIC2025）的 成果评估报告。但此次他们不得不承认，通过对12个关键行业的考察，得出了一个让其始料未及的结 论：经过十年努力，"中国创新能力显著提升，向全球价值链上游迈进，已巩固全球制造业强国地位。" 2015— 2023 年，MIC2025相关产品出口全球市场份额稳步提升。报告截图 这份报告覆盖了半导体、高端数控机床、机器人、农业机械、新材料、航空、航天相关领域、海洋工程 装备、先进轨道交通装备、新能源汽车、电力装备和生物医药等领域。 为评估相关成效，报告聚焦三类核心指标：全球市场份额（或按市场份额排名的全球顶尖企业数量）、 本土化率（即 ...

Core Insights - The A-share merger and acquisition (M&A) market has entered a new active cycle, reflecting the overall trend of China's economy towards stability and quality improvement [2][3] - The M&A market serves as an important window to observe the dynamics of the Chinese economy [2] Group 1: M&A Activity and Economic Trends - Since the release of the "Six Guidelines for M&A," over 1,000 various M&A transactions have been disclosed by companies in the Shanghai market, with significant asset restructurings increasing by 138% year-on-year [3] - Half of the major asset restructurings are in the technology sector, which has seen a 287% year-on-year increase, indicating a shift towards emerging and future industries [3] Group 2: International Investment Opportunities - The M&A market is becoming a bridge connecting domestic and international markets, promoting a combination of "going out" and "bringing in" strategies [4] - Systematic and institutional reforms have significantly enhanced the resilience and vitality of the Chinese economy and capital markets, making investment in China a common consensus among global investors [4] Group 3: Future Growth Drivers - The drive for technological upgrades through M&A is creating a "DeepSeek moment" in various fields, particularly in artificial intelligence, quantum information, and biotechnology [4] - Traditional industries are expected to accelerate their transformation, providing new opportunities for international investors to capitalize on undervalued assets and value re-evaluation [4] Group 4: Market Environment and Support - The number of listed companies is approaching 2,300, with a total market capitalization exceeding 60 trillion, positioning China as a hub for blue-chip and innovative technology companies [6] - Continued reforms in the M&A market will enhance the quality of listed companies and attract more high-quality enterprises to go public [6] - Regulatory improvements will focus on enhancing the scientific and effective nature of oversight, supporting quality M&A cases, and fostering a conducive market order [6]

Core Insights - The A-share merger and acquisition (M&A) market has entered a new active cycle since last year, reflecting the overall trend of China's economy towards stability and quality improvement [1] - The M&A market serves as an important window for observing China's economic conditions and corporate vitality [1] Group 1: M&A Market Dynamics - The M&A market is seen as a blue ocean for discovering corporate value, with significant enhancements in the resilience and vitality of China's economy and capital markets due to systematic reforms [6] - Global investors have reached a consensus on investing deeply in China, with M&A being a crucial method for optimizing resource allocation and enhancing the quality and investment value of listed companies [6] Group 2: Sector-Specific Trends - A-share technology companies are accelerating their breakthroughs through M&A to achieve technological upgrades and market expansion, particularly in future industries like AI, quantum information, and biotechnology [6] - Traditional industries such as textiles, light industry, steel, and petrochemicals are facing performance and valuation pressures, prompting them to strengthen their core businesses and accelerate transformation through M&A [6] Group 3: Strategic M&A by Industry Leaders - A-share industry leaders are shifting from simple scale expansion to strategic M&A for industry chain integration and global layout, thereby enhancing their core competitive advantages [7] - For instance, China Shipbuilding's merger with China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation has created the world's largest and most complete shipbuilding enterprise, with a market value steadily increasing to 270 billion yuan [7]

法国国际广播电台11月11日报道：席卷全球市场的中国超快尚零售商例如Shein等的集团，其所引发的强烈抗议不容忽视，它们的做法理应受到批评。但 正如法国乐天(Rakuten France) 法国首席执行长塞德里克·杜福尔所指出的，如果仅仅将中国视为这些企业，那就误解了中国。中国将国内生产总值的2.7% 投入研发，并提交了全球近一半的专利申请。 这些批评不无道理：这些席卷全球市场的中国快闪集团产品，存在灾难性的生态足迹、恶劣的劳工工作条件、有时甚至有毒的产品……但如果仅仅将中国 简化为这些"海盗"行为，那就忽略了其商业体系的深度和丰富性。因为在一棵树的背后，隐藏着一片森林——如果我们想要应对中国带来的竞争挑战，就 必须摒弃傲慢，认真了解这片森林。 几十年来，欧洲一直普遍认为中国是"世界工厂"，生产低成本、质量平庸的产品——通常是仿制品。这种观点在很大程度上已经过时了。过去二十年来， 中国一直在大力投资创新，力图赶上并超越竞争对手。据中国国家统计局预测，其研发投入持续增长，到2024年将增长8%，约占中国GDP的2.7%，远高 于欧盟2.1%的平均水平。为实现同一目标，中国政府自2015 年起实施了"中国制造20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that China is transitioning from being perceived as a "copycat" to becoming a global leader in innovation, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles and clean energy technology, which poses a challenge to Western companies [1][2]. Group 1: China's Innovation and Investment - China has significantly increased its investment in research and development, with an expected growth of 8% by 2024, reaching approximately 2.7% of its GDP, surpassing the EU's average of 2.1% [1]. - The "Made in China 2025" strategy, initiated in 2015, aims to develop world-class technology enterprises, with a major focus on artificial intelligence (AI) investments starting in 2017, targeting to become a global leader by 2030 [1]. Group 2: Global Patent Landscape - In 2022, nearly half of the global patent applications originated from China, indicating a shift in competitiveness that now includes innovation and quality, not just pricing [2]. - The perception of China has evolved from being a mere imitator to a significant player in the global innovation landscape, as highlighted by a French publication noting China's rapid ascent to a position of leadership in the patent market [4]. Group 3: Western Response and Reflection - The increasing competitiveness of Chinese companies has prompted European firms to reassess their intellectual property strategies to avoid over-reliance on Chinese partners [4]. - In the U.S., there is a growing recognition that the belief in China's lack of innovation capabilities is outdated, with former U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns stating that China has become a formidable competitor [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that China is focusing on technology and manufacturing as the main drivers of its development in the 14th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030), rather than prioritizing improving people's livelihoods and stimulating domestic demand [1] - The articles highlight that China is calling for "extraordinary measures" to achieve decisive breakthroughs in key areas such as semiconductors, accelerating the push for technological self-reliance [1] - There is a recognition that when China is determined, it can concentrate its efforts to overcome challenges, as evidenced by past initiatives like "Made in China 2025," which has led to significant advancements in technology [4] Group 2 - The articles suggest that Western media's concerns about China's technological rise stem from discomfort and vigilance regarding China's capabilities to solve problems rapidly when under pressure [4] - It is emphasized that China will not be swayed by external noise and should instead strengthen its path of independent innovation to secure key technologies and ensure high-quality development and improvement of people's livelihoods [4]