投顾发展 | 投顾晨报 突破的 2025，蓄力的 2026 朝闻道 20251231 市场策略 突破的 2025，蓄力的 2026 ⚫ 回望 2025 年，在国家治理能力提升和科技引领信心增强的双轮驱动下 A 股实现了 历史性的突破：主要指数中枢显著抬升，上证指数一度站上 4000 点；市场总市值跨 越百万亿元大关，交投持续活跃，科技成长主线清晰而强劲。这一年，是市场活力 与信心实现双修复的关键一年。 展望 2026 年，我们认为对于 A 股是夯实基础、积蓄力量，为长远发展谋篇布局之 年，整体市场将呈现"横盘震荡，略有走强"的格局。支撑市场"走强"的核心动 力，仍在于对国家治理和长期发展前景不断向好的预期。但需要耐心、逐级渐进， 投资者不应期待一蹴而就的快涨。 ⚫ 相关 ETF：中证 500ETF(512500/159982)、双创 50ETF(588380/159781/588360/588330) 风格策略 中盘蓝筹压舱，科技成长助攻 行业策略 生猪：预期极度悲观，配置价值凸显 主题策略 人形机器人：推进大脑进化，量产爬坡有望加速 风险提示 宏观经济增速放缓、畜禽价格不及预期；畜禽疫病大规模爆发、订单执行 ...

上行趋势稳固，收官红盘可期 投资策略 | 定期报告 策略周报 20251228 研究结论 我们上周认为市场有望开启震荡上行，上上周认为是年前行情较好的布局时点，市 场走势两次都符合我们的预判，短期市场能够影响预期的重大事件不多，下周三个 交易日后即将收官，指数在八连阳之后可能会有一些小颠簸，但不改上行趋势稳 固，预期收官战有望以红盘落定。 ⚫ 行业比较：布局中盘蓝筹 从 2023 年 3 月到现在，科技+红利两端走的行情已成市场一致性预期。展望未 来，我们认为风险风格两端走行情走向尾声，未来的投资机会在中等风险特征的股 票，沉寂四年的中盘蓝筹行情有望再度崛起。 ⚫ 行业配置：周期、消费和制造板块 投资机会在中等风险特征的股票，三条主线掘金中盘蓝筹： 1)周期板块科技赋能叠加供给约束，定价重估进行时。关注科技领域的新材料、化 工、金属等供需格局改善的品种以及农业品等。 2）消费板块沉寂多年正迎拐点。消费板块普遍股价超跌，供给收缩，股价有望上 行。关注科技相关的消费、新消费和传统医药消费等。 3）制造板块从纯粹的"故事炒作"转向"订单和收入"的验证。关注不断有业绩验证预 期的通信、电子、电力设备和机械设备。 ⚫ ...

投顾发展 | 投顾晨报 震荡有韵，结构为舟 朝闻道 20251229 市场策略 区间震荡保持定力，踩好节拍精细择时 风格策略 年末注意优选结构，中期择时中盘蓝筹 行业策略 公用事业：电力商品属性的定价有望为行业提估值 主题策略 智能驾驶：产业链暖风频吹，投资者心花渐开 风险提示 全球地缘政治的不确定性、宏观经济波动导致投资不及预期、原材料价格上涨拖累企业盈利、海外贸易摩 擦加剧、海外贸易摩擦加剧等风险 ⚫ 指数连阳反弹，再次站上 3900 点。自 8 月下旬以来，上涨指数围绕 3900 上下 100 多点震荡的格局较为清晰。微观筹码看，指数上有压力，下有半年线附近的支撑。 在指数未突破区间上下沿之前，保持震荡思维和轮动思路，以小周期的择时节奏把 握区间超额。 ⚫ 相关 ETF：沪深 300ETF（510300） ⚫ 立足中期视角，兼顾短期择时，在估值适中、机构低配、波动率收敛的板块和行业 中选择景气边际改善的中盘蓝筹品种，关注全球供给重塑及金融属性加持的周期 品、能以业绩验证预期的先进制造以及筹码结构得以优化的电子行业。 ⚫ 相关 ETF：中证现金流 ETF（159235）、有色 ETF（159980）、黄金 ...

Market Strategy - The Shanghai Composite Index has experienced seven consecutive days of gains, indicating a market that is entering a period of oscillation and upward movement, although the overall increase remains limited [2][7] - The report suggests a focus on structural investments rather than index-heavy strategies, recommending broad-based ETFs that reflect mid-cap blue-chip characteristics [7] - Key sectors identified for investment include advanced manufacturing, non-bank financials, technology, and cyclical industries, which are expected to attract incremental capital and serve as the backbone of the market during this upward trend [7] Industry Strategy - The coal industry is highlighted, with coking coal prices expected to rebound due to seasonal inventory replenishment by downstream steel and coking plants, which is anticipated to support prices in the short term [4][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the coking coal sector for investment opportunities, particularly as downstream purchasing behavior shifts from a wait-and-see approach to active procurement [7] - Recommended stocks in the coal sector include Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225) and Jincheng Anthracite Mining Group (601001), both rated for increased holdings [7] Thematic Strategy - The humanoid robot sector is noted for significant advancements in motion control technology, with mass production expected to accelerate in 2026 [5][7] - Recent demonstrations by Tesla and Yush Robot showcase rapid progress in humanoid robot capabilities, indicating a shift in market focus towards actual production rather than just technological advancements [7] - Companies with strong manufacturing and management capabilities in the components sector are expected to benefit from this trend, with Top Group (601689) recommended for purchase [7]

投顾发展 | 投顾晨报 沪指七连阳，中盘蓝筹强者恒强 朝闻道 20251226 江韶军 执业证书编号：S0860525090001 jiangshaojun@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 市场策略 沪指七连阳，轻指数重结构 风格策略 中盘蓝筹强者恒强 行业策略 煤炭：焦煤价格如期反弹，关注配置机会 主题策略 人形机器人：推进大脑进化，量产爬坡有望加速 风险提示 宏观经济增速放缓、海外煤价大幅下跌、订单执行效果低于预期、产品降价风险、研发进度及产业化不及 预期等。 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 26 日 区间震荡保持定力，踩好节拍精细择时： 朝闻道 20251224 2025-12-23 沪指三连阳，依旧震荡：朝闻道 20251222 2025-12-21 冬藏蓄势等贝塔，防守亦有阿尔法：朝闻 道 20251217 2025-12-16 ⚫ 本周沪深三大指数四连阳，沪指七连阳，但整体涨幅有限，呈现温和放量状态。站 在当下我们认为随着上 ...

半玉 蛋 wabao WP Fund 【 】 【 】 【 】 】 】 【 】 】 2025年12月 ll 3A系列ETF当日场内行情 ■ 中证A100ETF基金 A50ETF华宝 A500ETF华宝 159596 562000 563500 +0.0% +0.17% +0.49% 数据来源:沪深交易所等,行情数据截至 A50ETF华宝于2024.3.18上市,中证A100ETF基金于2022.8.1上 市,A500ETF华宝于2024.12.2上市 当日大市行情 :050 +0.53% +0.88% +0.77% 创业板指 上证指数 深证成指 两市成交额1.88万亿元 较上一日-196亿元 全市场个股涨跌数 4128 - 1137只 200日 =1 上涨 === 持平 " | 下跌 资金净流入TOP3行业(申万一级) 电子 电力设备 +49.16亿元 +22.17亿元 +12.33亿元 机构观点 E 东方证券:市场有望重启震荡上行,未来投资机会在中等风险特征股 票,沉寂已久的中盘蓝筹与强主题方向或值得积极布局。 光大证券:连续反弹之后,场内资金存在一定的分歧,需要震荡消化 获利盘, 接下来指数或将震荡上行。 ...

投顾发展 | 投顾晨报 区间震荡保持定力，踩好节拍精细择时 朝闻道 20251224 市场策略 区间震荡保持定力，踩好节拍精细择时 风格策略 年末注意防守，中期择时中盘蓝筹 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 23 日 陈寒梅 执业证书编号：S0860525100003 chenhanmei@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 沪指三连阳，依旧震荡：朝闻道 20251222 2025-12-21 冬藏蓄势等贝塔，防守亦有阿尔法：朝闻 道 20251217 2025-12-16 接 受 震 荡 ， 拥 抱 中 盘 蓝 筹 ： 朝 闻 道 20251215 2025-12-14 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 行业策略 化工：草酸有望迎来供需收紧的景气上行机会 主题策略 电子：下游强劲拉动，MLCC 产业链或受益 风险提示 全球地缘政治的不确定性、宏观经济波动导致投资不及预期、原材料价格上涨拖累企业盈利、海外贸易摩 擦加剧等风险 ⚫ 指数连阳反弹，再次站上 3900 点。自 8 ...

Core Viewpoints - The market is expected to restart a volatile upward trend, with a favorable layout for mid-cap blue chips and strong thematic directions [9][13][14]. Market Analysis - The market is likely to experience a rebound after a period of hesitation, with the recent interest rate hike in Japan further reducing uncertainty. This sets the stage for a potential upward movement in the market [3][14]. Industry Comparison - From March 2023 to the present, the market has seen a consensus expectation for technology and dividend stocks. The report suggests that the trend of risk styles is nearing its end, with investment opportunities shifting towards mid-cap blue chips, which are expected to rise again after four years of dormancy [4][15]. Industry Allocation - Investment opportunities are identified in medium-risk stocks, focusing on three main lines to capitalize on mid-cap blue chips: 1. **Cyclical Sector**: Technology empowerment combined with supply constraints is leading to a re-evaluation of pricing. Attention is drawn to new materials, chemicals, and metals with improved supply-demand dynamics, as well as agricultural products [4][16]. 2. **Consumer Sector**: After years of stagnation, the consumer sector is at a turning point, with generally undervalued stocks and supply contraction suggesting potential price increases. Focus areas include technology-related consumption, new consumption trends, and traditional pharmaceutical consumption [4][16]. 3. **Manufacturing Sector**: The focus is shifting from mere "story speculation" to validating "orders and revenues." Key areas of interest include telecommunications, electronics, power equipment, and machinery with expected performance validation [4][16]. Thematic Investments - The report highlights several thematic investment areas to watch: - **Aerospace and Satellites**: The sector is expected to maintain strength, with potential catalysts from reusable rockets and accelerated IPO progress in satellite networks and commercial rockets [4][17]. - **Artificial Intelligence**: The AI theme is currently influenced by U.S. market narratives and may see short-term performance improvements following recent developments [5][17]. - **Service Consumption**: With significant recent gains, policies aimed at improving demand are expected to become a main theme by 2026, making service consumption a key area of focus [5][17]. - **Autonomous Driving**: Developments in domestic L3 licensing and profitability milestones for companies like Pony.ai, along with international validation phases for robotaxis, suggest a renewed focus on this sector [5][17]. - **Nuclear Fusion**: The nuclear fusion sector is anticipated to experience a series of industrial catalysts, transitioning from theoretical research to practical engineering, which is expected to generate substantial investment demand [5][18]. - **Semiconductor Expansion and Domestic Substitution**: Expectations for domestic wafer fabs to expand production next year, along with the capitalization of major domestic memory chip manufacturers, highlight opportunities in domestic chip manufacturing and related materials [5][19]. - **Upstream Price Increases**: The report notes a continuing trend of price increases in the short term, driven by supply constraints and structural demand growth, particularly in non-ferrous metals and the new energy sector [6][19].

东方证券研究所宏观与战略团队表示，在这个全球充满不确定性的时代，中国政策的稳定性、连续性、 务实针对性和规划前瞻性是一条突出的比较优势，这正在成为更多全球投资者的共识。展望明年，由科 技突破、风险下降等叙事力量推动的资金再配置预计仍将延续，关注"十五五"时期政策新理念推动经济 走向再平衡。海外宏观环境将继续有利于中国资产表现，美国政策宽松未完待续，全球"政策偏松+经 济不差"的组合为风险资产提供温和"顺风"。 人民财讯12月18日电，12月18日，东方证券2026年度投资策略会在上海拉开帷幕。东方证券研究所所长 黄燕铭在大会上表示，2026年股票市场可以简单总结为"横盘震荡，略有走强"，整个市场呈现横盘震荡 逐级抬升的过程，这个过程需要较长时间逐步完成，大家不能有一蹴而就、快牛疯牛的预期。支撑A股 略微走强的核心驱动因素在于大家对国家治理预期不断上升。2026年投资机会，前期在中盘蓝筹，后期 还是在科技创新。 ...

Market Strategy - The market is experiencing increased adjustment pressure, with participants adopting a more conservative mindset as trading willingness decreases due to limited rebound heights and accelerated sector rotation [6] - It is suggested to wait for better layout opportunities rather than frequent trial and error in timing [6] Style Strategy - Defensive strategies are emphasized as year-end approaches, with a focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks for medium-term timing [3] - The gold sector is expected to benefit from a decline in dollar credit, leading to potential price increases [3] Theme Strategy - The special steel industry is anticipated to undergo high-quality development due to expected cost declines and new import-export management regulations [4] - The implementation of export license management for certain steel products is expected to optimize the export structure and enhance domestic profitability [6] Investment Opportunities - Investment targets include Chifeng Gold (600988, Buy) and Nanjing Steel (600282, Buy) as they are positioned to benefit from the current market dynamics [6]