新华社纽约1月13日电（记者徐静）世界银行13日发布最新一期《全球经济展望》报告，将2026年全球 经济增长预期上调至2.6%，比2025年6月预测值高出0.2个百分点。 报告指出，尽管面临贸易紧张局势和政策不确定性加剧，过去一年全球经济在人工智能投资大增等因素 影响下仍展现出韧性。但与此同时，全球生活水平差距正在扩大，富裕国家与贫困国家之间日益扩大的 生活水平差距令人担忧。2020年至2030年"或将成为20世纪60年代以来全球经济增长最疲软的十年"。 报告警告，随着美国关税政策影响逐渐显现，2026年全球贸易增长将显著放缓，其带来的经济下行风险 仍然存在。 世界银行呼吁各国政府调整政策，加大对科技和教育的投资，以促进可持续发展。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:冯粒】 ...

美联储在2026年面临六大关键挑战，从独立性到货币政策框架改革，这些问题将深刻影响全球金融市场 走向和投资者预期。 市场对下任美联储主席的关注持续升温，但这只是美联储今年面临的诸多挑战之一。政治干预、利率调 整空间、资产负债表规模、银行监管改革、稳定币监管以及货币政策框架等六大议题，都将考验这家全 球最具影响力央行的决策能力。 这些议题具有系统性影响。若政治压力侵蚀市场对美联储抗通胀承诺的信心，可能引发严重的预期脱锚 与波动；同时，美联储在利率政策、资产负债表管理等技术性问题上的选择，也将直接影响市场波动性 和金融稳定。 美联储主席鲍威尔此前表示，经过去年三次25个基点的降息后，货币政策现已处于"中性利率的合理估 计区间内"。然而，新任主席如何在政治压力下保持决策独立性，并在多重挑战中推进协调一致的政策 与监管改革，将成为贯穿全年的核心观察主线。 政治独立性面临考验 特朗普试图影响利率走向的举动，正对美联储的独立性构成实质威胁。即使下任美联储主席愿意按照特 朗普的偏好进一步降息，这一政策路径也远非确定。主席必须获得联邦公开市场委员会支持，否则将面 临信誉受损与市场沟通失效的风险。事实上，在FOMC成员、美联储 ...

Core Viewpoint - The focus of foreign investment institutions on AI is shifting from technological breakthroughs to the practical implementation of AI in business operations and its impact on profitability [1][2]. Group 1: Acceleration of AI Applications - AI applications are accelerating in both domestic and international markets, with enterprise-level and consumer-level AI products being deployed more rapidly [2]. - Nearly half of analysts now expect AI to positively impact corporate profitability by 2026, a significant increase from about 25% in a similar survey conducted in 2024 [2]. - The urgency for companies to adopt AI is increasing, moving from vague discussions to specific, actionable solutions [2]. Group 2: Industry Chain and Long-term Opportunities - Foreign investment institutions are focusing on the chain reaction effects brought by the accelerated application of AI, viewing it as a significant global industrial trend with long-term investment opportunities [3]. - In the manufacturing sector, Chinese companies have advantages in capacity and technology accumulation, particularly in areas like PCB, optical modules, and servers, which are expected to benefit from the global demand for AI computing power [3]. - China's investment in computing infrastructure ranks second globally, with rapid construction progress, providing ample space for domestic replacements in core hardware sectors like GPUs and servers [3]. Group 3: Valuation Discussions and Market Concentration - As AI applications advance, discussions around valuation levels and market concentration are intensifying, with foreign institutions maintaining a positive long-term outlook while differentiating risks across various segments [4][5]. - The top ten tech stocks in the U.S. now account for about 40% of the S&P 500 index market value, a historical high, but high market concentration may not necessarily be negative [5]. - The focus should be on whether AI-related capital expenditures can generate sustainable returns through commercialization, rather than solely on market concentration [5]. Group 4: Hong Kong Stock Market as a Key Entry Point - The Hong Kong tech market is becoming a crucial entry point for global investors looking to allocate to Chinese tech assets, with significant mid-to-long-term allocation value [6]. - The strategic importance of Hong Kong tech stocks is reflected in three dimensions: increased demand for diversifying tech exposure, the resonance of "returning + IPO increment" for Chinese concept stocks, and the valuation safety margin of Hong Kong tech being notably attractive [6].

摘要今日周三(12月31日)亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于4328美元附近，截至发稿，国际黄金最新报 4368.65美元/盎司，涨幅0.72%，最高上探至4372.97美元/盎司，最低触及4328.09美元/盎司。目前来 看，国际黄金短线偏向看涨走势。 特朗普还可能填补理事会空缺(共7席)，强化对FOMC影响。若鲍威尔留任理事(任期至2028)，或意在巩 固独立性，但史无前例，易被视作政治化。地区联储主席五年任命获批，保障轮换投票权，缓解对其聘 用遭否的担忧，增强外界对美联储独立性的信心。 【最新国际黄金行情解析】 隔夜美联储会议纪要落地，美联储内部继续延续分歧状态，甚至美联储票委内部都开始有了分歧，主要 的点还是对目前通胀的担忧，还有政府前期长时间停摆导致数据缺失，让自己本身没有底，从而导致目 前美联储官员整体对未来货币政策保持谨慎，美元指数在会议纪要前后小幅走出了反弹，但是目前力度 有限，黄金上个交易日回踩4324附近一路震荡反抽，欧美盘一度站上4400关口触及4404附近然后在晚间 走出震荡回落，美联储会议纪要之后最低回踩4329附近企稳反抽，早盘目前开盘也是延续反弹走势，今 日日内回踩顺势先多，关注43 ...

12月31日，软银集团在一份声明中表示，已于12月26日完成对OpenAI的225亿美元追加投资，至此已完 全履行其3月承诺的对OpenAI投资义务，目前在OpenAI的总持股比例约为11%。软银称，加上其他第三 方共同投资者超额认购并增额参与的110亿美元，最终总额410亿美元的投资承诺现已全额到位。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The k-shaped consumer economy is expected to continue, and investors should be cautious about potential slowdowns in AI investment impacting the broader economy [1] Group 1: Economic Trends - The k-shaped recovery indicates that different segments of the economy are recovering at different rates, leading to disparities in consumer spending and investment [1] - The persistence of this economic trend suggests that certain sectors may thrive while others lag behind, creating varied investment opportunities [1] Group 2: AI Investment Concerns - A slowdown in AI investment could have significant repercussions on the overall economy, highlighting the interconnectedness of technology investments and economic health [1] - Investors are advised to monitor AI investment trends closely, as they may serve as indicators of broader economic performance [1]

2025.12. 23 本文字数：1121，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 钱童心 随着全球人工智能军备竞赛愈演愈烈，即便是现金流充裕的科技巨头，也不得不通过大量举债来为相 关投资提供资金，这推升了今年全球债务发行创历史新高。 据Dealogic的最新数据，截至12月第一周，今年全球科技公司发行的债券总额已达4283亿美元，规 模空前。其中，美国公司发行了3418亿美元债务，欧洲和亚洲科技公司分别发行了491亿美元和330 亿美元债务。 过去，大型科技公司往往依赖内部现金流，但由于全球借贷成本低廉且投资者需求强劲，如今这些大 型企业越来越多地转向债务融资。另一方面，技术的加速迭代也迫使企业不断对新技术进行投资。 另据标普最新报告，截至11月底，今年全球数据中心投资总额已近610亿美元，超过去年的608亿美 元，再创历史新高。 标普全球数据显示，今年数据中心相关债务发行规模已达1820亿美元，较去年全年的920亿美元几 乎翻了一番。Meta、谷歌和亚马逊等美国科技巨头发债尤为积极。Meta自2022年以来发债620亿美 元，其中近一半是在今年发行的，而谷歌和亚马逊的发债规模分别为290亿美元和150亿美 ...

就在12月19日，与谷歌公司相关的某数据中心开发商正计划发行12.8亿美元、五年期的垃圾债券（高收 益债），为项目进行部分融资，债券的定价收益率预计约7.25%。 随着全球人工智能军备竞赛愈演愈烈，即便是现金流充裕的科技巨头，也不得不通过大量举债来为相关 投资提供资金，这推升了今年全球债务发行创历史新高。 据Dealogic的最新数据，截至12月第一周，今年全球科技公司发行的债券总额已达4283亿美元，规模空 前。其中，美国公司发行了3418亿美元债务，欧洲和亚洲科技公司分别发行了491亿美元和330亿美元债 务。 过去，大型科技公司往往依赖内部现金流，但由于全球借贷成本低廉且投资者需求强劲，如今这些大型 企业越来越多地转向债务融资。另一方面，技术的加速迭代也迫使企业不断对新技术进行投资。 另据标普最新报告，截至11月底，今年全球数据中心投资总额已近610亿美元，超过去年的608亿美元， 再创历史新高。 标普全球数据显示，今年数据中心相关债务发行规模已达1820亿美元，较去年全年的920亿美元几乎翻 了一番。Meta、谷歌和亚马逊等美国科技巨头发债尤为积极。Meta自2022年以来发债620亿美元，其中 近一 ...

过去，大型科技公司往往依赖内部现金流，但由于全球借贷成本低廉且投资者需求强劲，如今这些大型企业越来越多地转向债务融资。 随着全球人工智能军备竞赛愈演愈烈，即便是现金流充裕的科技巨头，也不得不通过大量举债来为相关投资提供资金，这推升了今年全球债务发行创历史新 高。 过去三个月，甲骨文股价累计跌幅约40%。由于市场担忧甲骨文为人工智能项目融资而疯狂举债，银行和投资者持续进行大量对冲操作，导致该公司五年期 信用违约互换价格（CDS）也面临打破2008年创下的纪录的风险。 据Dealogic的最新数据，截至12月第一周，今年全球科技公司发行的债券总额已达4283亿美元，规模空前。其中，美国公司发行了3418亿美元债务，欧洲和 亚洲科技公司分别发行了491亿美元和330亿美元债务。 过去，大型科技公司往往依赖内部现金流，但由于全球借贷成本低廉且投资者需求强劲，如今这些大型企业越来越多地转向债务融资。另一方面，技术的加 速迭代也迫使企业不断对新技术进行投资。 就在12月19日，与谷歌公司相关的某数据中心开发商正计划发行12.8亿美元、五年期的垃圾债券（高收益债），为项目进行部分融资，债券的定价收益率预 计约7.25%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided text does not contain information about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Global economy in 2026 is expected to grow at around 3%, with loose global liquidity benefiting low and middle - income countries. The K - shaped economy in the US deepens, with AI investment as a new growth driver, while China's economic transformation shows initial results, and Europe's economy is under pressure due to the Russia - Ukraine war and trade tariffs [1][33] - For the copper market, supply is limited due to shortages in copper concentrates and refined production, and demand shows a mix of old and new trends. The US tariff expectation distorts global demand, and the price is expected to range between $11,000 - $12,500 [1][68] - In the aluminum market, China is approaching its electrolytic aluminum production capacity ceiling, and overseas production is restricted by power bottlenecks. Demand remains stable, and the supply gap is expected to widen, with the price expected to range between $2,700 - $3,200 [2][79] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Situation US Economy - In 2025, AI investment contributed to 1/3 of GDP growth, driving the stock market up. In 2026, AI investment will continue, but the traditional manufacturing industry will face more pressure, with the K - shaped economic structure deepening. Fiscal and monetary policies are both loose, and GDP growth is expected to increase slightly. The biggest uncertainty is the possible bursting of the AI investment bubble [5] - Consumer confidence has declined to a 20 - year low, with consumption growth concentrated in high - income groups. The employment market is expected to slow down but remain generally stable, with the unemployment rate slightly increasing. Manufacturing is in a weak recovery, and the "Big Beautiful Act" will increase the deficit and government spending. The market expects two more interest rate cuts in 2026 [9][12][16] Chinese Economy - In 2025, China implemented an active fiscal policy, and economic transformation achieved initial results. GDP growth is expected to reach around 5%. In 2026, the fiscal support will not be less than in 2025, and the focus will be on promoting domestic demand. GDP growth is expected to slow down slightly to 4.6% [17][20] - Real estate investment continues to shrink, and the contribution of the real estate industry to GDP has dropped from 30% to 10%. Industrial investment has paused after high - speed growth. Central fiscal investment will support fixed - asset investment. Industrial and export growth is expected to remain high, and measures to promote domestic demand will be strengthened [20][25][27] European Economy - In 2025, the Russia - Ukraine war and Trump's tariff war affected the European economy. The European Central Bank cut interest rates four times, and Germany launched a 500 - billion - euro defense plan. GDP growth is expected to be 1.3% in 2025 and slow down slightly in 2026 [29][32][35] - The biggest uncertainty in 2026 is the Russia - Ukraine war. If post - war relations are handled well, the economy may grow strongly. Global liquidity is expected to be loose, which will ease the debt pressure of low and middle - income countries [33] 3.2 New Demand Growth Points for Copper and Aluminum New Energy and AI Investment - The new energy industry has become a major growth source for non - ferrous metal demand. By 2030, the consumption of new energy in copper and aluminum demand is expected to reach over 30% and 25% respectively [36] - The growth of new energy vehicles will slow down. In 2026, the global production of new energy vehicles is expected to be 23 - 25 million, with a copper demand increase of 200,000 tons and an aluminum demand increase of 600,000 tons [36][37] - Photovoltaic growth will slow down. In 2026, the global new installed capacity is expected to be 610 - 650GW. The copper and aluminum demand growth will be less than 100,000 tons and 200,000 - 300,000 tons respectively [37][38] - Energy storage has become a new growth point. In 2026, the global energy storage installed capacity is expected to reach 377GWh, with a copper and aluminum demand increase of 65,000 tons and 200,000 tons respectively [39] - Data center construction is also a new growth point. The global data center copper demand is expected to increase by 100,000 tons annually, and China's data center copper demand may approach 1 million tons by 2030 [39] - The power sector's demand for grid upgrade and transformation is increasing. In 2026, China's main grid investment is expected to grow by about 10%, and the US is expected to invest over $1.1 trillion in power from 2025 - 2030 [40][41][43] Traditional Demand - The demand from the construction industry for copper and aluminum is expected to decline by about 15%. The demand for home appliances will slow down, with a production growth rate of about 2% in 2026. The demand from medium - income countries is growing [44][45][50] 3.3 Copper Market Supply Constraints - In 2026, copper concentrate production will increase, but refined copper production growth will slow down significantly. Long - term supply is limited due to factors such as the lack of new large mines and the aging of existing mines [51][54][55] - In 2026, new copper mine projects are expected to increase production by 570,000 tons. Chinese refined copper production growth will be limited by the shortage of concentrates, and overseas refineries may reduce production. The supply of scrap copper is expected to be tight [54][57][59][60] Demand and Price Outlook - In 2026, global refined copper supply is expected to have a shortage of 150,000 tons, and the shortage may expand to 300,000 tons in 2027. The US tariff expectation distorts global demand, making the US a high - price area for copper and intensifying the supply gap in non - US regions [61][63][67] - The copper price in 2026 is expected to range between $11,000 - $12,500, and the upward price elasticity depends on tariff expectations and speculative funds [68] 3.4 Aluminum Market Supply Situation - The supply of bauxite and alumina is in a high - growth period, and over - supply will intensify in 2026. The price of alumina will fluctuate within a narrow range around the cash cost of high - cost refineries [69][70][74] - China is approaching the 45.5 - million - ton capacity ceiling for electrolytic aluminum. In 2026, domestic production is expected to increase by 800,000 tons, and growth will basically stagnate after 2027. Overseas, new projects are mainly in Indonesia, but power bottlenecks are significant, and production growth has high uncertainty [74][76][77] Demand and Price Outlook - In 2026, global primary aluminum demand growth is expected to be slightly lower than in 2025. In the long term, new energy and emerging country demand will support a 2.7% - 3% compound growth rate [78][79] - The supply is expected to turn into a small shortage in 2026, and the shortage may expand after 2027. The aluminum price is expected to range between $2,700 - $3,200 (or 21,000 - 24,000 yuan) [79]