【冠通期货研究报告】 玻璃、纯碱日报：日内震荡偏强 发布日期：2026 年 3 月 5 日 玻璃：今日玻璃主力高开高走，日内震荡偏强。120 分钟布林带走缩口，短期震 荡信号，压力继续看日线的 60 均线附近，支撑关注前低附近。成交量较昨日增 19.2 万手，持仓量较昨日减 57661 手；日内最高 1065，最低 1038，收盘 1055， （较昨日结算价）涨 8 元/吨，涨幅 0.76%。 全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存 7963.7 万重箱，环比+362.9 万重箱，环比 +4.77%，同比+14.51%。折库存天数 35.3 天，较上期+1.5 天，各区库存全面增 加，总库逼近 3 年高位。 玻璃核心矛盾在 "供应收缩预期"（冷修+政策）与"弱现实需求"（地产 低迷）的博弈，高库存仍是盘面反弹的最大压力。中期来看，因商品房销售暂未 出现明显好转，玻璃需求预期仍然偏弱。随着即将到来的传统消费旺季，关注供 应回归与下游需求恢复情况，重点看高企的库存能否持续去化。元宵之后下游陆 续开工，需求恢复但依旧缓慢，库存延续累积。近期中东局势导致国际能源价格 大涨，成本支撑抬升，但核心供需矛盾并未改善下，上方空间受限。预 ...

丙烯日报 | 2026-03-05 供应收缩预期仍存，成本端继续抬升 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价7088元/吨（+98），丙烯华东现货价7000元/吨（+350），丙烯华北现货价7015元/吨 （+375），丙烯华东基差-88元/吨（+252），丙烯山东基差-73元/吨（+277）。丙烯开工率72%（+0%），中国丙烯CFR- 日本石脑油CFR143美元/吨（-2），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR-94美元/吨（+20），进口利润-586元/吨（-188），厂内库存 44970吨（-200）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率24%（+1.99%），生产利润55元/吨（-115）；环氧丙烷开工率80%（+0%），生产利润-234 元/吨（+0）；正丁醇开工率85%（-3%），生产利润629元/吨（-142）；辛醇开工率97%（-2%），生产利润77元/吨（-70）； 丙烯酸开工率80%（-7%），生产利润830元/吨（+52）；丙烯腈开工率76%（+0%），生产利润-1315元/吨（-194）； 酚酮开工率88%（-1%），生产利润-158元/吨（+100）。 市场分析 丙烯期现价格共振上行，主 ...

玻璃、纯碱日报：日内短线调整 【冠通期货研究报告】 发布日期：2026 年 3 月 4 日 玻璃：今日玻璃主力高开低走，日内走弱。120 分钟布林带三轨向下，短期震荡 偏弱信号，压力继续看日线的 60 均线附近，支撑关注前低附近。成交量较昨日 减 27.8 万手，持仓量较昨日减 7904 手；日内最高 1055，最低 1037，收盘 1038， （较昨日结算价）跌 1 元/吨，涨幅 0.1%。 1 纯碱：主力合约低开低走，日内震荡偏弱。120 分钟布林带三轨开口向上，短期 震荡偏强信号，盘中压力继续关注前高附近，短线支撑关注日线的 60 日线附近。 成交量较昨日增 22.8 万手，持仓量较昨日减 47496 手；日内最高 1225，最低 1194， 收盘 1203，（较昨日结算价）涨 14 元/吨，涨幅 1.18%。 国内纯碱厂家总库存 192.95 万吨，较 2 月 26 日库存增加 3.51 万吨，涨幅 1.85%。其中，轻碱 101.29 万吨，环比增加 1.44 万吨；重碱 91.66 万吨，环比 增加 2.07 万吨。现货上，纯碱企业装置震荡运行，部分企业产量提升，供应宽 松，而下游需求表现一般，观 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 玻璃、纯碱日报：日内短线走强 发布日期：2026 年 3 月 3 日 玻璃：今日玻璃主力低开高走，日内走强。120 分钟布林带走缩口喇叭，短期震 荡信号，压力继续看日线的 60 均线附近，支撑关注前低附近。成交量较昨日减 36.1 万手，持仓量较昨日减 36536 手；日内最高 1055，最低 1027，收盘 1054， （较昨日结算价）涨 7 元/吨，涨幅 0.67%。 目前国内深加工企业多数仍在停工状态，华北、东北地区下游加工企业多尚 未开工，大多将于正月十五后开工，但部分出口订单企业受退税政策影响，仍赶 单为主；华中、西南区域今年下游加工厂节后整体开工普遍偏晚，大部分开工时 间集中在正月十六-正月二十开工，小部分企业在正月初八到正月初十开工，目 前多数企业接单情况不佳；华东地区多数下游加工厂多集中在元宵节之后，而仅 有少部分因部分出口订单受退税政策影响，赶工为主；华南区域下游深加工除部 分月底开工外，多数集中在正月十五后开工，年后原片企业提涨下，少数加工厂 适当采买。。 玻璃核心矛盾在 "供应收缩预期"（冷修+政策）与"弱现实需求"（地产 低迷+季节性淡季）的博弈，高库存是盘面反弹 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 玻璃、纯碱日报：短线震荡偏强 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 27 日 玻璃：今日玻璃主力低开高走，日内震荡偏强。120 分钟布林带走紧口喇叭，短 期震荡信号，压力继续关注日线的 60 均线附近，支撑关注布林带下轨线附近。 成交量较昨日减 11.4 万手，持仓量较昨日增 5898 手；日内最高 1064，最低 1044， 收盘 1062，（较昨日结算价）涨 7 元/吨，涨幅 0.66%。 虽假期结束，但国内深加工企业多数仍在停工状态，华北、东北地区下游加 工企业多尚未开工，大多将于正月十五后开工，但部分出口订单企业受退税政策 影响，仍赶单为主；华中、西南区域今年下游加工厂节后整体开工普遍偏晚，大 部分开工时间集中在正月十六-正月二十开工，小部分企业在正月初八到正月初 十开工，目前多数企业接单情况不佳；华东地区多数下游加工厂多集中在元宵节 之后，而仅有少部分因部分出口订单受退税政策影响，赶工为主；华南区域下游 深加工除部分月底开工外，多数集中在正月十五后开工，年后原片企业提涨下， 少数加工厂适当采买。。 玻璃核心矛盾在 "供应收缩预期"（冷修+政策）与"弱现实需求"（地产 低迷+季节性淡季 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 玻璃、纯碱日报：短期震荡 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 25 日 玻璃：今日玻璃主力低开高走，日内震荡偏强。120 分钟布林带走缩口喇叭，短 期震荡，压力关注日线的 60 均线附近，支撑关注前低附近。成交量昨日增 38.6 万手，持仓量较昨日增 32787 手；日内最高 1073，最低 1049，收盘 1064，（较 昨日结算价）涨 16 元/吨，涨幅 1.53%。 玻璃核心矛盾在 "供应收缩预期"（冷修+政策）与"弱现实需求"（地产 低迷+季节性淡季）的博弈，高库存是盘面反弹的最大压力。中期来看，因商品 房销售暂未出现明显好转，玻璃需求预期仍然偏弱。节前部分产线冷修，产能收 缩，供需格局略有改善。而随着 3 月重要会议临近，关注市场对宏观预期以及北 方主产地环保的影响。但往上空间若想打开仍需房产企稳。短期而言，预计维持 震荡运行。关注后期房产政策以及主产地产线检修情况。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 纯碱：主力合约今日高开高走，日内走强。120 分钟布林带走缩口喇叭，短期震 荡信号，盘中压力关注布林带上轨线附近，支撑关注日 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 玻璃、纯碱日报：短期震荡 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 24 日 玻璃：今日玻璃主力高开震荡，收十字星。120 分钟布林带走开口喇叭，短期震 荡偏弱，压力关注布林带中轨线附近，支撑关注前低附近。成交量较节前减 590 手，持仓量较节前增 79844 手；日内最高 1060，最低 1037，收盘 1050，（较上 一交易日结算价）跌 6 元/吨，跌幅 0.57%。 玻璃核心矛盾在 "供应收缩预期"（冷修+政策）与"弱现实需求"（地产 低迷+季节性淡季）的博弈，高库存是盘面反弹的最大压力。中期来看，因商品 房销售暂未出现明显好转，玻璃需求预期仍然偏弱。目前市场也处于传统需求淡 季，整体市场交投情绪清淡。节前部分产线冷修，产能收缩，供需格局略有改善。 但往上空间若想打开需得房产企稳。短期预计维持震荡运行。关注后期房产政策 以及产线检修情况。 纯碱的核心矛盾是供强需弱导致的库存持续累积，行业供需错配格局未改善。 目前重碱需求一般，轻碱需求较好一定程度上对冲重碱需求的减量，但整体还是 过剩格局延续。目前行业持续亏损，下方面临较强成本支撑。同时随着节后资金 回流，节前主动减仓的资金重新进场，今日价 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for the glass industry is volatile [1] Core Viewpoint - The core contradiction in the glass market lies in the game between "supply contraction expectations" (due to cold repairs and policies) and "weak actual demand" (caused by the sluggish real - estate market and seasonal off - peak seasons). High inventory is the biggest pressure for the price rebound. Although policies provide short - term emotional support, the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially improved. In the short term, the glass market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures market**: The glass main contract opened and closed lower, showing a weak intraday oscillation. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands tightens, indicating short - term volatility. The pressure is near the upper Bollinger Band, and the support is near the lower Bollinger Band. The trading volume decreased by 294,000 lots compared to the previous day, while the open interest increased by 6,827 lots. The intraday high was 1083, the low was 1064, and the closing price was 1072, down 20 yuan/ton or 1.83% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot market**: In North China, the market is stable with overall sales slowing down as the industry gradually takes holidays. In East China, there are few changes, with stable prices and slowing sales. In Central China, the market operates steadily, with middle - and downstream enterprises focusing on collecting payments. In South China, the market remains stable for now, with most downstream enterprises finishing their work and the trading atmosphere weakening [1] - **Basis**: The spot price in North China is 1020, and the basis is - 52 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of February 5th, the total output of float glass this week was 1.0558 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.16%. The average operating rate was 71.86%, unchanged from the previous week, and the average capacity utilization rate was 75.61%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09%. Two production lines of Dongtai Zhongbo with a designed capacity of 600 tons each were shut down today [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.064 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 500,000 weight boxes or 0.95%, and a year - on - year decrease of 11.77%. The inventory days were 23.1 days, an increase of 0.3 days from the previous period [2] - **Demand**: The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 6.35 days, a week - on - week decrease of 31.9% and a year - on - year increase of 323.3%. As the Spring Festival approaches, the market atmosphere has significantly weakened, and orders from deep - processing factories in all regions have declined [2] - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, the domestic float glass exports were 87,000 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons or 2.59% from the previous month. The net exports were 72,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.51%. The cumulative export volume from January to December was 1.0292 million tons, an increase of 497,700 tons or 93.63% from the same period last year [2] - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of natural - gas - fired float glass was - 167.97 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12.85 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of coal - gas - fired float glass was - 67.92 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.58 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of petroleum - coke - fired float glass was 43.93 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 42.86 yuan/ton [3] Main Logic Summary - The core contradiction in the glass market is the game between supply contraction expectations (cold repairs and policies) and weak actual demand (real - estate downturn and seasonal off - peak). High inventory is the main pressure for price rebound. Real - estate demand has not improved, and although policies provide short - term emotional support, the supply - demand contradiction remains. With the approaching Spring Festival, downstream enterprises are finishing work, and the market sentiment is weak. So the glass market weakened intraday and is expected to be volatile in the short term. Future attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for the glass industry is oscillating with a slight upward bias [1] Core View - The core contradiction in the glass market lies in the game between the "expectation of supply contraction" (cold repair + policy) and "weak actual demand" (sluggish real estate + seasonal off - peak). High inventory is the biggest pressure on the market rebound. Although there are some factors supporting the market sentiment, the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially improved, and the short - term price rebound may be limited. It is advisable to adopt an oscillating with a slight upward bias approach in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures Market**: The glass futures main contract opened low and moved lower, weakening during the session. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands have an upward - opening triple track, indicating a short - term oscillating with a slight upward bias signal. Resistance is near the upper Bollinger Band, and support is near the 30 - day moving average. Trading volume decreased by 762,000 lots compared to yesterday, and open interest decreased by 78,483 lots. The intraday high was 1109, the low was 1078, and the closing price was 1088, down 15 yuan/ton or 1.36% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot Market**: In North China, the market is stable with acceptable overall shipments; in East China, the purchasing sentiment is weak, and manufacturers' quotes are temporarily stable; in Central China, middle - and downstream buyers are rational, and transactions are mediocre; in South China, most downstream enterprises are on holiday except for a few processing plants rushing orders, and the purchasing sentiment has declined [1] - **Basis**: The spot price in North China is 1020, and the basis is - 68 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of February 5th, the total weekly output of float glass was 1.0558 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.11% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.16%. The average operating rate was 71.86%, unchanged week - on - week; the average capacity utilization rate was 75.61%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.09%. Two production lines of Dongtai Zhongbo stopped production today, each with a designed capacity of 600 tons [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.064 million weight boxes, with a week - on - week increase of 500,000 weight boxes or 0.95%, and a year - on - year decrease of 11.77%. The inventory days were 23.1 days, an increase of 0.3 days from the previous period [2] - **Demand**: The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 6.35 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 31.9% and a year - on - year increase of 323.3%. As the Spring Festival approaches, the market atmosphere has significantly weakened, and orders from deep - processing plants in all regions have declined [2] - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, domestic float glass exports were 87,000 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons or 2.59% from the previous month; net exports were 72,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.51%. The cumulative export volume from January to December was 1.0292 million tons, an increase of 497,700 tons or 93.63% compared to the same period last year [2] - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of natural - gas - fired float glass was - 155.12 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.57 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of coal - gas - fired float glass was - 68.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.39 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of petroleum - coke - fired float glass was 1.07 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.85 yuan/ton [3] Main Logic Summary - The core contradiction in the glass market is the game between supply contraction expectations and weak actual demand. High inventory restricts the market rebound. Although there are some positive factors supporting the market sentiment, the supply - demand contradiction remains unsolved, and the short - term price rebound may be limited. It is recommended to take an oscillating with a slight upward bias approach. Future attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4]

Core Viewpoint - The glass industry is entering a seasonal downturn as downstream companies begin to shut down for the Spring Festival, leading to weakened terminal demand. Despite this, glass futures surged by 3.36%, reaching a peak of 1120 yuan/ton with trading volume exceeding 2 million contracts. The market is currently trading on supply contraction expectations rather than fundamental improvements, and future price movements will depend on supply and demand dynamics [1]. Group 1 - Analysts indicate that some glass production lines are expected to undergo cold repairs, which may lead to reduced output and potential price increases [1]. - The current glass market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with daily melting capacity of float glass dropping to 151,000 tons, a 14% decrease from the 2024 peak [1]. - The glass industry is facing ongoing operational pressures, with most production lines operating at a loss, and a potential shift to a weak supply-demand balance if capacity falls below 150,000 tons [1]. Group 2 - In Hubei, some production lines are undergoing energy transformation from petroleum coke to natural gas and electrification, which may temporarily reduce supply and support price increases [2]. - Unlike previous years, the winter storage market before the Spring Festival is relatively stable, with downstream companies showing low willingness to stockpile due to insufficient orders [2]. - Export performance has been strong, with January glass export orders benefiting from export tax rebate policies [3]. Group 3 - Analysts suggest that market trading logic will shift before and after the Spring Festival, with attention needed on downstream stockpiling intentions before the holiday [4]. - Post-holiday, the focus will be on the recovery of downstream demand, particularly in the real estate sector, as a lack of improvement may limit upward price potential for glass futures [4]. - The overall production costs in the glass industry are likely to rise, with natural gas production lines continuing to operate at a loss, indicating limited potential for significant price declines [4].