（责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 自由现金流ETF（159201）紧密跟踪国证自由现金流指数，自由现金流策略弥补了传统红利策略在 行业覆盖广度和未来表现预判方面的不足，聚焦于内生增长能力，强调财务健康与可持续性，更契合追 求长期成长与资本增值的投资者需求。基金管理费年费率为0.15%，托管费年费率0.05%，均为市场最 低费率水平，最大程度让利投资者。 每日经济新闻 截至2025年9月25日13点30分，国证自由现金流指数上涨0.05%，成分股环旭电子涨停、太龙股 份、上海电气、洛阳钼业、凌云股份等涨幅居前。相关ETF方面，同类规模最大的自由现金流ETF （159201）跟随指数上行，盘中成交额率先达2.4亿元。截至9月24日，自由现金流ETF近1月日均成交 3.27亿元，排名可比基金第一。 南京证券表示，成长板块存在波动，存在较强政策预期的"反内卷"和"促内需"板块 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the increasing interest in cash flow ETFs, particularly the cash flow ETF (159399), which has seen a net inflow of 14 million units, indicating strong demand for cash flow assets [1] - Nanjing Securities highlights that growth sectors are experiencing volatility, while sectors with strong policy expectations, such as "anti-involution" and "promoting domestic demand," remain at relatively low levels, suggesting a high cost-performance ratio for medium to long-term allocation [1] - The FTSE Cash Flow Index, which the cash flow ETF (159399) tracks, has outperformed the CSI Dividend Index and the CSI 300 Index for nine consecutive years from 2016 to 2024, indicating its strong market performance [1] Group 2 - The cash flow ETF (159399) focuses on large and mid-cap stocks, with a higher proportion of central state-owned enterprises compared to similar cash flow indices, and has distributed dividends for six consecutive months since its launch [1] - Investors without stock accounts are encouraged to consider the Guotai FTSE China A-Share Free Cash Flow Focused ETF Initiated Link A (023919) and Link C (023920) as alternative investment options [1]

Core Insights - The market is experiencing heightened volatility, leading to increased attention on the stable attributes of dividends, particularly through the cash flow ETF (159399), which attracted over 200 million yuan in investments on the 5th [1] - Nanjing Securities indicates that the growth sector carries significant trading risks, while sectors with strong policy expectations, such as "anti-involution" and "promoting domestic demand," remain relatively undervalued, presenting better long-term investment opportunities [1] - The cash flow ETF (159399) utilizes free cash flow as a stock selection factor, closely tracking the FTSE China A-Share Free Cash Flow Index, excluding financial and real estate sectors, and selecting the top 50 stocks with the highest free cash flow rates [1] Index Characteristics - The cash flow index focuses on large and mid-cap stocks, exhibiting strong defensive attributes and higher dividend yields, which may help mitigate market fluctuations [2] - The cash flow ETF (159399) has consistently distributed dividends for six consecutive months as of the end of August since its launch [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.39% at 3868.38 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.26% to 12473.17 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.75% to 2742.13 points, with total trading volume at 2.68 trillion, significantly lower than the previous day's over 3 trillion [1] Sector Performance - The "promoting consumption" and "anti-involution" sectors led the gains, with agriculture, beauty, chemicals, media, and retail sectors showing notable increases, confirming previous insights on market rotation and rebound opportunities [1] - Conversely, the pharmaceutical and non-bank financial sectors were the biggest losers, indicating a cooling off in growth styles [1] Technical Analysis - The market formed a small doji candlestick, suggesting a potential weakening of upward momentum, although bears have not gained a significant advantage, indicating a possible short-term pullback to the 5-day moving average [1] - The absence of a clear market top signal, coupled with a lack of significant volume release during the pullback, suggests that some funds remain reluctant to sell, allowing for cautious optimism in the short term [1] Future Outlook - Following the Jackson Hole meeting, market expectations for a September rate cut have risen to 90%, although the Fed retains some policy flexibility due to rising inflation levels [2] - The A-share market sentiment has cooled after reaching high levels, with a significant drop in trading volume, indicating a potential peak in market enthusiasm [3] - Institutional funds are still actively buying leading stocks, suggesting a continued interest in high-quality assets despite the overall market cooling [3] - The potential for policy support remains, with the domestic market expected to maintain liquidity regardless of the Fed's decisions [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The chief economist and director of the research institute, Wen Bin, indicates that recent data shows a certain setback in the recovery of the real economy since July, necessitating continued macro policy support [1] Economic Indicators - Several indicators since July have shown a decline in retail sales growth, ongoing pressure on real estate investment, and a need for increased credit demand [1] - External demand faces uncertainties that have not yet been fully resolved, suggesting the need for further macroeconomic policy adjustments [1] Policy Recommendations - The necessity for maintaining a stable and continuous policy approach is emphasized, with monetary policy expected to remain supportive [1] - Wen Bin suggests that structural policies can more effectively target issues, avoid fund misallocation, and enhance the activation of deposits [1] Interest Rate Outlook - The timing for potential further reductions in reserve requirement ratios (RRR) and interest rates may be postponed, along with the timing for adjustments to the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the implementation of a moderately accommodative monetary policy to support high-quality economic development and create a favorable financial environment for sustained economic recovery [1][2]. Monetary Policy Focus - The report shifts from "implementing moderately accommodative monetary policy" to "implementing and refining moderately accommodative monetary policy," indicating a focus on effective execution and tracking the impact of previous policies [2]. - Experts suggest that the emphasis on "implementation and refinement" reflects a positive assessment of the first half of the year and indicates a greater focus on policy execution effectiveness in the second half [2][3]. Credit Support and Financial Stability - The report indicates a change in credit guidance from "increasing credit supply" to "stabilizing credit support," suggesting a shift towards quality over quantity in credit provision [4]. - The focus will be on observing broader indicators like social financing scale and M2, rather than just loan amounts, to adapt to market trends and reduce competitive pressures [4][5]. Structural Optimization of Credit - The report highlights ongoing efforts to optimize credit structure, directing more resources towards key economic strategies and sectors, with loans to new growth areas and domestic demand maintaining rapid growth [6][7]. - The proportion of loans directed towards the "Five Major Articles" has increased to about 70%, indicating a significant shift from traditional sectors like real estate and infrastructure [6]. Support for Specific Economic Areas - The report outlines initiatives to enhance financial services for small and micro enterprises, support technological innovation, and improve high-quality service consumption supply [6][7]. - Future efforts will focus on increasing the accessibility and sustainability of inclusive finance, particularly for technology-driven small and medium enterprises, and fostering a supportive financial ecosystem for innovation [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article suggests that the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting may signal a rate cut in September, which could support gold prices due to expectations of increased liquidity [1][2] - The article highlights that as trade negotiations between the US and multiple countries progress, tariff risks are diminishing, which may positively impact market sentiment and industrial metal prices [1][2] - It notes that the macroeconomic environment is expected to influence industrial metal prices significantly, especially with key domestic meetings and trade talks scheduled for July [1][2] Group 2 - In the precious metals sector, the anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut is likely to support gold prices, especially with ongoing trade negotiations and potential tariff adjustments [2] - The industrial metals market is currently experiencing a seasonal slowdown, with weak demand and pressure on processing rates for metals like copper and aluminum, although macroeconomic factors may provide some support [2] - The article emphasizes that if domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth and promoting internal demand continue to be effective, alongside positive developments in trade negotiations and signals from the Federal Reserve, industrial metal prices could see significant support [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guojin Securities highlights a persistent trend of differentiation in the consumer sector, with mass consumption and government-business consumption showing varied performance. Companies that embrace new consumer trends, demographics, and channels are emerging, while traditional food and beverage leaders are solidifying their foundations and actively seeking change [1]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The consumer habits are evolving, leading to the emergence of diverse channels that align with these changes. Characteristics such as value-for-money, health consciousness, and emotional consumption are becoming synonymous with high growth [2]. - New channels like online media e-commerce, home delivery, membership supermarkets, and bulk snacks are rising, providing efficient supply chain solutions and targeted selling points that disrupt traditional channels [2]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential of the konjac category, recommending companies like Yanjin Beer and Weilong Delicious. Additionally, it highlights soft drink brands such as Dongpeng Beverage, Nongfu Spring, and Bairun Co., which are expected to see significant growth as they expand nationally [2]. Group 2: Alcohol and Dining Chain Sectors - In the liquor sector, external risk events are expected to have a diminishing impact on the fundamentals, with policies aimed at stabilizing growth likely to continue. The industry is in a bottoming phase, and attention should be paid to seasonal sales to gauge changes in market sentiment [2]. - The report suggests focusing on high-end liquor with stable prices and strong competitive advantages, such as Kweichow Moutai, and regional leaders benefiting from robust demand and upgrades in rural consumption [2]. - For the dining chain sector, the report indicates that external uncertainties necessitate a push for domestic demand. With policies gradually taking effect, consumer confidence is expected to improve, leading to enhanced demand in the second half of the year [3]. - The report identifies undervalued stocks in the beer, frozen food, and seasoning sectors, such as Yanjin Beer, Angel Yeast, and Yihai International, as potential investment opportunities [3].

Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank has decided to implement a comprehensive reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut of 0.5 percentage points, expected to release approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity, promoting stable growth in loans for households and enterprises[2] - A simultaneous reduction of 0.25 percentage points in the interest rates of structural monetary tools such as re-loans for agriculture and small enterprises will help lower the cost of liabilities for commercial banks, stabilizing net interest margins and enhancing the efficiency of interest rate transmission[2] - The expectation for continued active use of RRR cuts in the second half of the year remains, with an annual forecast of 100-150 basis points (BP) in total[2] Real Estate and Consumption - Policy interest rates have been reduced by 10 basis points (BP) and public housing loan rates by 25 BP to stabilize the real estate market, which is crucial for supporting domestic demand[3] - The creation of 500 billion yuan in service consumption and pension re-loans aims to stimulate demand for durable goods and services, particularly in the post-real estate cycle[3] - The recent downward trend in the real estate market, especially in second and third-tier cities, indicates that policy support is still needed to maintain stability[3] Economic Strategy and Trade Relations - The "stable exchange rate - stable real estate - promote domestic demand" cycle is expected to strengthen, providing a basis for China to engage in equal trade negotiations with the U.S.[3] - The Ministry of Commerce has signaled a willingness to engage in talks with the U.S., emphasizing mutual respect and benefit as prerequisites for dialogue[3] - The combination of stable real estate policies and measures to boost consumption and investment is enhancing market confidence in China's ability to manage external shocks[3] Capital Market Support - The central bank is increasing support for technological innovation and transformation with an additional 300 billion yuan in re-loans, alongside the creation of risk-sharing tools for tech innovation bonds[4] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) plans to introduce further reforms for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market to enhance market inclusivity and adaptability[4] - A combined monetary policy tool worth 800 billion yuan is aimed at stabilizing capital market expectations and mitigating potential market volatility risks[4]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced slight fluctuations with major indices showing mixed results, as the Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index slightly rose while the Shenzhen Component Index and CSI 300 slightly fell. Trading volume shrank again, just surpassing 1 trillion yuan, marking a new low since the Qingming Festival [1] Sector Performance - Real estate, hotel and catering, photolithography, and disperse dyes sectors led the gains, while gold, military electronics, cross-border payments, and diversified finance sectors saw declines. The electronic industry attracted over 5.6 billion yuan in net inflow from major funds, with basic chemicals, food and beverage, and computers each receiving over 3 billion yuan. Real estate, machinery, and defense industries also saw net inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan. In contrast, non-ferrous metals, automotive, and beauty care sectors experienced net outflows of 2.52 billion yuan, 1.269 billion yuan, and 140 million yuan respectively [3] Investment Strategy - Orient Securities indicated that market volatility is expected to increase due to tariff risks, suggesting that the current tariff impact has not been fully resolved. The market may remain in a high-volatility state with limited short-term movement. The strategy should focus on closely monitoring policy developments and company earnings reports, particularly in sectors with high earnings certainty and those that can hedge against tariff impacts, such as import substitution [3] Retail Sector Insights - A joint initiative by several associations proposed that retail enterprises establish green channels and dedicated areas for foreign trade products to facilitate domestic sales. Huaxi Securities noted that leading retail companies are aiding the transition from export to domestic sales, highlighting the value of traditional channels as offline traffic returns. The new retail sector is expected to continue outperforming expectations, with cyclical sectors likely to recover from low levels, releasing performance elasticity [6] Tourism Sector Trends - Tuniu's data indicated that domestic travel bookings for the upcoming "May Day" holiday have increased by over 100% compared to the same period last year. Popular destinations include first-tier and new first-tier cities, with Guangzhou ranking second in popularity after Beijing. Guorong Securities anticipates a peak in travel bookings as the holiday approaches, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption. The implementation of consumer policies is expected to further enhance growth opportunities in various service sectors, with the optimization of vacation systems continuing to drive the tourism market [8]