回顾1月票据市场走势，月初6个月期国股银票转贴现利率一度上行至1.29%，之后震荡下行，最低触及1.07%，月内波动幅度达22BP（基点）；3个 月期国股银票转贴现利率在上旬一度升至1.5%，全月在1.30%～1.50%波动。 对比来看，近年来，票据利率1月表现呈逐年下降趋势。2023年以来，6个月期国股银票转贴现利率中枢逐渐从2.5%附近降至2%附近，2025年1月利 率降至1.5%以下，但月内尤其月末主要呈上行态势，3个月期品种也呈类似趋势。 2026.02. 03 本文字数：2299，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 亓宁 作为传统信贷大月，1月是信贷"开门红"的重要观察窗口。不过，市场对今年"开门红"预期保守，背后考虑除了2025年末信贷投放前置平滑等因素，还 有一个重要参考指标是票据市场走势。 票据兼具"资金+信贷"双重属性，在传统信贷大月，票据利率往往因为银行大量卖票为信贷腾挪空间而出现大幅上行。不过，今年1月票据利率高开后走 低，尤其月末不升反降，较往年同期表现偏弱。 综合受访人士观点和部分机构判断，1月信贷增量或相对平淡。一位资深券商金融分析师对第一财经表示，预计今年1月新增信贷与去年大 ...

作为传统信贷大月，1月是信贷"开门红"的重要观察窗口。不过，市场对今年"开门红"预期保守，背后 考虑除了2025年末信贷投放前置平滑等因素，还有一个重要参考指标是票据市场走势。 票据兼具"资金+信贷"双重属性，在传统信贷大月，票据利率往往因为银行大量卖票为信贷腾挪空间而 出现大幅上行。不过，今年1月票据利率高开后走低，尤其月末不升反降，较往年同期表现偏弱。 综合受访人士观点和部分机构判断，1月信贷增量或相对平淡。一位资深券商金融分析师对第一财经表 示，预计今年1月新增信贷与去年大致持平。不过，也有机构预测，1月新增贷款低于5万亿元，不及去 年同期水平。 月末票据利率反常走低 回顾1月票据市场走势，月初6个月期国股银票转贴现利率一度上行至1.29%，之后震荡下行，最低触及 1.07%，月内波动幅度达22BP（基点）；3个月期国股银票转贴现利率在上旬一度升至1.5%，全月在 1.30%～1.50%波动。 对比来看，近年来，票据利率1月表现呈逐年下降趋势。2023年以来，6个月期国股银票转贴现利率中枢 逐渐从2.5%附近降至2%附近，2025年1月利率降至1.5%以下，但月内尤其月末主要呈上行态势，3个月 期品种也 ...

1月8日-16日，杭州银行（600926）（600926）密集接待国泰海通证券、长江养老等三十余家机构调 研。针对调研机构关心的2026年开门红对公信贷投放情况、新增对公贷款主要增长区域、零售贷款需 求、资产质量等问题，杭州银行管理层结合公司业务实际与发展规划，进行了全面、细致的回应与解 读。此次密集机构调研，体现出机构对杭州银行经营质效与发展潜力的关注，杭州银行也向市场传递出 其保持经营稳健性的信心。 在对公业务"开门红"信贷投放及新增对公贷款核心增长区域方面，2026开年以来，杭州银行对公信贷投 放实现稳健增长，投放规模较往年同期多增，资产投放收益率与2025年四季度保持平稳态势，盈利稳定 性得到有效保障。2026年，杭州银行对公信贷业务将持续锚定具备强劲发展动能与扎实产业基础的核心 区域，聚焦主流市场、优质客群及核心资产，在深耕浙江省内市场的同时，稳步拓展省外重点城市业务 布局，全面提升重点区域客户综合金融服务质效。 关于零售按揭贷款需求及业务发展推进举措，杭州银行回应称，2026年作为"十五五"规划开局之年，亦 是房地产市场平稳运行的关键节点。在存量政策持续发力与增量政策精准赋能的双重支撑下，市场调整 ...

1月20日，市场震荡调整，银行板块逆市走强，42只银行股除浦发银行外全线收涨，成都银行涨超3%， 重庆银行、长沙银行、常熟银行、齐鲁银行涨超2%，渝农商行、中信银行、中国银行等19股涨逾1%。 顶流银行ETF（512800）场内价格一度涨逾1%，收涨0.77%。 银行ETF（512800）及其联接基金（A类：240019；C类：006697）被动跟踪中证银行指数，成份股囊 括A股42家上市银行，是跟踪银行板块整体行情的高效投资工具。银行ETF（512800）最新规模111.8亿 元，2025年以来日均成交额超8亿元，为A股10只银行业ETF中规模最大、流动性最佳！ 数据来源：沪深交易所等、Wind等。 机构观点来源：国信证券2025年12月31日发布《银行春季躁动布局策略：复盘与展望》；20260119银河 证券《上市银行信贷开门红可期，对公领域或继续发力支撑全年信贷稳步增长》；万和证券20260119 《银行行业月报：结构性降息，社融增速小幅回落》。 ETF费用相关说明：投资者在申购或赎回基金份额时，申购赎回代理机构可按照不超过0.5%的标准收取 佣金，其中包含证券交易所、登记机构等收取的相关费用。联接基金 ...

Report Title - The report is titled "Hualian Futures Treasury Bond Weekly Report: Structural Interest Rate Cut Implemented, Short - Duration High - Quality Bonds Lead the Rise" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the total issuance scale of China's bond market was 1405.62 billion yuan, with the supply rhythm significantly advanced at the beginning of the year. Government bonds and credit bonds jointly pushed up the weekly issuance volume. Market institutions predict that the net financing of government bonds in Q1 2026 may reach 830 - 880 billion yuan [7] - This week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 171.28 billion yuan to supplement short - and medium - term liquidity, hedge against capital gaps, and support the "good start" of credit and the stable operation of the bond market [7] - This week, the performance of credit bonds with different ratings and maturities was significantly differentiated. There was a strong preference for short - duration high - coupon assets, and the market was cautious about the credit risk of industrial bonds. 1 - 3 - year credit bonds were the core of allocation [7] - This week, the long - end yield continued to decline. It is recommended to appropriately allocate 1 - 3 - year treasury bonds and local bonds on dips [7] - In December 2025, new social financing decreased year - on - year, and the stock growth rate declined. The central bank's targeted easing policies will improve the inefficiency of capital activation and reduce the financing cost of key areas [9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Bond Market Issuance - This week, the total issuance scale of China's bond market was 1405.62 billion yuan. Government bonds (treasury bonds + local bonds) issued over 1.2 trillion yuan, and the combined issuance of medium - term notes, commercial paper, and financial bonds was 314.781 billion yuan. Market institutions predict that the net financing of government bonds in Q1 2026 may reach 830 - 880 billion yuan, with a monthly average of over 130 billion yuan, much higher than in 2025 [7] 2. Central Bank Operations - This week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 171.28 billion yuan. On January 15, a 90 - billion - yuan 6 - month repurchase was carried out, with a net injection of 30 billion yuan. Considering the large tax revenue in January, the central bank used daily repurchases and term repurchases to avoid a sharp tightening of liquidity [7] 3. Credit Bond Performance - This week, the performance of credit bonds with different ratings and maturities was significantly differentiated. The yield of AA - rated 1 - year urban investment bonds dropped from 2.39% on January 12 to 1.08% on January 16, a decrease of over 130 BP. Some high - rated varieties entered the "negative spread" range. The average yield of AAA - rated industrial bonds was 7.31%, significantly higher than that of urban investment bonds. 1 - 3 - year credit bonds were the core of allocation, and funds preferred 3 - year - and - below varieties [7] 4. Yield and Liquidity - This week, the long - end yield continued to decline, with the 30 - year treasury bond yield falling to 2.3010% and the 10 - year yield falling to 1.8430%. DR007 fluctuated around the 1.40% policy rate, and the overnight Shibor was stable in the 1.2% - 1.3% range. Short - end liquidity remained loose, and it was recommended to appropriately allocate 1 - 3 - year treasury bonds and local bonds on dips [7] 5. Social Financing and Monetary Data in December 2025 - New social financing in December 2025 was 221 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 64.62 billion yuan. The stock growth rate dropped 0.2 percentage points to 8.3%. The net financing of government bonds decreased significantly year - on - year, dragging down the overall social financing growth rate [9] - In terms of credit structure, corporate loans increased by 107 billion yuan year - on - year, with short - term loans and bill financing accounting for a relatively high proportion. Resident loans decreased, and the "scissors gap" between M1 and M2 widened [9] - The central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points and added 400 billion yuan in re - loan quotas for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation. The minimum down - payment ratio for commercial real estate loans was reduced from 50% to 30% [9] - In December 2025, the weighted average interest rate of newly issued corporate loans and personal housing loans both dropped to a historical low of 3.1%. The targeted easing policy will improve capital activation and reduce the financing cost of key areas [9] 6. Charts and Data - The report includes multiple charts on treasury bond futures prices, basis, implied interest rates, yield curves, various bond yields, inter - bank repurchase rates, lending rates, money market liquidity, bond market liquidity, foreign bond markets, etc., providing data support for the analysis of the bond market situation [10][13][15]

Core Viewpoint - In December, new RMB loans and new social financing slightly exceeded market expectations but showed a year-on-year decrease, indicating a continued divergence in financing demand between enterprises and households, primarily reflecting accelerated financing related to infrastructure while household loan demand remains under pressure due to real estate market challenges [1] Summary by Relevant Sections New RMB Loans and Social Financing - December new RMB loans amounted to 910 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 800 billion yuan, but showing a year-on-year decrease of 800 billion yuan, keeping the loan balance year-on-year growth rate stable at 6.4% [3] - New social financing in December was 2.21 trillion yuan, surpassing the consensus estimate of 1.9 trillion yuan, but down 6.457 billion yuan year-on-year, with a year-on-year growth rate slowing from 8.5% in November to 8.3% [5] Corporate and Household Loan Dynamics - Corporate loan financing accelerated in December, likely due to the implementation of new policy financial tools and local government debt limits, with corporate loans increasing by 580 billion yuan year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate rising from 8.8% in November to 9.1% [1][4] - In contrast, household loan demand remained weak, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.511 billion yuan in December, and the year-on-year growth rate of household loans slowing from 1.1% in November to 0.5% [1][4] Government Debt and Fiscal Deposits - The net issuance of government bonds in December decreased significantly by 1.07 trillion yuan year-on-year due to a high base effect, while fiscal deposit growth accelerated, indicating that the government may be reserving funds for economic stimulus in the first quarter of 2026 [2] Monetary Indicators - The year-on-year growth rate of M1 decreased from 4.9% in November to 3.8% in December, while M2 growth increased from 8.0% to 8.5%, indicating a mixed picture of liquidity in the economy [6] Future Outlook - The focus will be on the strength of credit growth in early 2026, the impact of the central bank's expansion of relending quotas, and the pace of fiscal fund disbursement, as well as the potential recovery of household purchasing intentions in the real estate market [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report maintains the view in the December 7, 2025, report "Interbank Certificates of Deposit in a Dilemma" that interbank certificate of deposit (CD) rates may remain "caught between a rock and a hard place." The rates face difficulties in rising due to the cost comparison between central bank's medium - term liquidity tools like outright reverse repurchase and MLF and the current issuance rate of interbank CDs, as well as the increasing demand for CD allocation driven by the growth of current - period wealth management products. They also face difficulties in falling because, under the policy of narrowing the short - term interest rate corridor, DR001 and R001 are unlikely to deviate significantly from the central bank's 7 - day OMO rate [1][9]. - The report focuses on answering two key questions: how the RMB exchange - rate appreciation affects the inter - bank liquidity and the scale of the "good start" in credit in January 2026. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Interbank CD Rates May Remain "Caught Between a Rock and a Hard Place" - The view that interbank CD rates are in a difficult situation of neither rising nor falling is maintained. The reasons for the difficulty of rising and falling are the same as those in the previous report [1][9]. - Investors are concerned about the impact of RMB exchange - rate appreciation on inter - bank liquidity and the scale of the "good start" in credit in January 2026 [2][9]. 3.2 Narrow - Sense Liquidity 3.2.1 Central Bank Operations - Short - term liquidity: At the beginning of the month, there was a net withdrawal. In the past week (January 4 - 9), the central bank's open - market repurchase agreements matured intensively, with a net withdrawal of 1.655 trillion yuan through pledged reverse repurchases. As of January 9, the central bank's reverse - repurchase balance was 138.7 billion yuan, remaining at a low level [15]. - Medium - term liquidity: The 3 - month outright reverse repurchase was renewed at the same amount. In January, the total maturity amount of outright reverse repurchases was 1.7 trillion yuan (1.1 trillion yuan for the 3 - month and 600 billion yuan for the 6 - month), and the MLF maturity was 200 billion yuan. On January 8, the central bank renewed 1.1 trillion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchases, achieving the third consecutive monthly equivalent renewal [16]. - Long - term liquidity: In December 2025, the central bank's net purchase of treasury bonds was 50 billion yuan, falling short of market expectations [18]. 3.2.2 Institutions' Borrowing and Lending Situations - Fund supply (lending side): On January 9, large - scale banks' net lending (flow concept, excluding same - day maturities) was about 5 trillion yuan, an increase of about 2.8492 trillion yuan compared to December 31, at a relatively high level in the same period of previous years. Their net lending balance was 5.9 trillion yuan, an increase of about 1.2712 trillion yuan compared to December 31. The net lending balance of money - market funds was 0.8 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 412.2 billion yuan compared to December 31, at an extremely low level in the same period of previous years. Small - and medium - sized banks' net lending was - 637.3 billion yuan, a decrease of about 256.6 billion yuan compared to December 31, at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years [19]. - Fund demand (borrowing side): On January 9, the balance of bonds to be repurchased in the inter - bank pledged repurchase market was about 13.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.2491 trillion yuan compared to December 31. By institution, public funds (excluding money - market funds), securities companies, bank wealth - management products, and insurance companies increased by 5.4 billion yuan, 30 billion yuan, 34.6 billion yuan, and decreased by 207.5 billion yuan respectively. The market - wide leverage ratio was 107.6%, an increase of 0.72 percentage points compared to December 31, at the 42% percentile since 2020. The leverage ratio of non - legal - person products was 114.2%, an increase of 0.19 percentage points compared to December 31, at about the 53% percentile since 2020 [25]. 3.2.3 Repurchase Market Transaction Situations - Fund quantity and price: In the past week, the inter - bank pledged repurchase market had a large volume and stable prices. The median daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchases was about 8.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.3934 trillion yuan compared to December 29 - 31. The median R001 was 1.33%, a decrease of about 4 basis points compared to the previous week, remaining at a low level. In terms of liquidity stratification, the median spread between R001 and DR001 was 6.8 basis points, a decrease of 5.6 basis points compared to the previous week; the median spread between GC001 and R001 was 10.6 basis points, a decrease of 42.9 basis points compared to the previous week [31]. - Fund sentiment index: The overall inter - bank liquidity was loose, and the financing difficulty was low. The sentiment index was mostly below 50 [33]. 3.2.4 Interest - Rate Swaps - The 1 - year FR007 IRS rate was basically flat compared to the previous week. This week, the median 1 - year FR007 IRS rate was 1.51%, at the 4% percentile since 2020 [35]. 3.3 Government Bonds - In the past week, the net payment for government bonds was 432.7 billion yuan, with a large net - payment pressure, including 315 billion yuan for treasury bonds and 117.7 billion yuan for local bonds. In the coming week, government bonds are expected to have a net repayment of 93.1 billion yuan, including a net repayment of 159.2 billion yuan for treasury bonds and a net payment of 66.1 billion yuan for local bonds [37]. 3.4 Interbank CDs 3.4.1 Absolute Yield - On January 9, the SHIBOR overnight, 7 - day, 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year quotes were 1.27%, 1.46%, 1.56%, 1.6%, 1.62%, 1.64%, and 1.65% respectively. The yields to maturity of ChinaBond's commercial - bank AAA - rated 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year interbank CDs were 1.53%, 1.6%, 1.63%, 1.63%, and 1.63% respectively. Except for the 9 - month term with no change in the quote, the other terms increased by 4 basis points, 5 basis points, 2 basis points, and 1 basis point respectively compared to December 31 [38]. 3.4.2 Issuance and Outstanding Situations - In the past week (January 4 - 9), the total primary issuance of interbank CDs was 176.36 billion yuan (excluding those with undisclosed actual raised amounts as of January 9), an increase of 35.69 billion yuan compared to December 29 - 31. In terms of issuance terms, the proportions of 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year were 26%, 6%, 15%, 15%, and 44% respectively. Among them, the proportions of 1 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year increased by 6.4 percentage points, 11.9 percentage points, 6.0 percentage points, and 43.6 percentage points respectively, while the 3 - month proportion decreased by 42.6 percentage points [41]. 3.4.3 Relative Valuation - On January 9, the spread between the 1 - year AAA - rated interbank CD yield to maturity and R007 was 12 basis points, at the 29% percentile since 2020; the spread between the 10 - year treasury - bond yield to maturity and the 1 - year AAA - rated interbank CD was 25 basis points, at the 66% percentile since 2020 [44].

Group 1: Central Bank Operations - The People's Bank of China conducted a 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation to offset the same amount maturing this month, ensuring liquidity in the market [1] Group 2: Digital Currency Innovations - The digital yuan app launched a "carbon inclusive" service in Shanghai, allowing users to earn carbon credits for eco-friendly behaviors, which can be exchanged for digital yuan [2] Group 3: HSBC and Hang Seng Bank Privatization - HSBC announced the results of Hang Seng Bank's privatization, emphasizing the goal of enhancing complementary advantages rather than erasing differences between the two entities [3] Group 4: Banking Security Measures - Several regional small banks, including Anping Huimin Village Bank, suspended overseas transactions to mitigate cross-border fraud risks, following similar actions by larger banks [4] Group 5: Credit Market Developments - A competitive lending environment has emerged, with personal loan rates dropping to the "2s" as banks simplify approval processes and enhance loan disbursement efficiency [5] Group 6: Leadership Changes in Financial Leasing - The Shanghai Financial Regulatory Bureau approved the appointment of a new chairman for China Everbright Financial Leasing, amidst a wave of leadership changes in the financial leasing sector [6] Group 7: Agricultural Bank Personnel Adjustments - Agricultural Development Bank is undergoing personnel adjustments, with new appointments in its northeastern branches aimed at optimizing regional business management [7] Group 8: Capital Increase at Chang'an Bank - Shaanxi Guotou plans to increase its stake in Chang'an Bank through a capital increase of up to 800 million yuan, raising its shareholding to 6.23% post-transaction [8][9] Group 9: Political Aspirations of Banking Executives - The chairman of Liaoning Rural Commercial Bank, Yang Jishi, is nominated as a candidate for a city mayor position, indicating a significant career transition [10] Group 10: Anti-Corruption Efforts in Banking - The deputy secretary of Hunan Rural Credit Cooperative, Jiang Junwen, is under investigation for serious violations, highlighting ongoing anti-corruption efforts within the financial system [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant fluctuations in the bill discount rates at the beginning of 2026, with a notable increase in rates following a sharp decline at the end of 2025 [2][3] - As of January 6, 2026, the 6-month and 3-month national bank bill discount rates rose to 1.29% and 1.47%, respectively, marking an increase of 69 basis points (BP) and 117 BP from the low points at the end of December 2025 [3] - The volatility in bill rates is attributed to the imbalance in supply and demand, particularly influenced by the pressure of bank credit expansion at year-end [2][3] Group 2 - Historical data indicates that the beginning of the year often sees a pattern of rising bill rates, with the first half of January typically experiencing a consistent upward trend [3] - The demand for bills is expected to remain cautious due to the anticipated credit "opening red" effect, which may lead to a decrease in the supply of lower-yielding bill assets as institutions focus on higher-yield loans [4] - Market participants are closely monitoring the upcoming financial data for December 2025, with conservative expectations for credit demand recovery and bill financing increments [5][6] Group 3 - The forecast for December indicates a bill financing increment of 0.35 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1 trillion yuan, while the increment for real entity loans is expected to be 0.44 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.05 trillion yuan [6] - The relationship between credit indicators and bill rates may shift, as the significance of credit metrics compared to overall social financing data diminishes, potentially altering the dynamics of bill demand and pricing [6] - Analysts suggest that if social financing data meets expectations, the necessity for banks to increase bill allocations may decrease, limiting the downward pressure on bill rates [6]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of annual coupon layout, indicating that January may serve as a key window for economic activity due to the late timing of the Spring Festival in February [2][6] - The central bank's stance is described as cautious, with a focus on quantity operations and a relatively stable liquidity environment, suggesting limited conditions for significant liquidity withdrawal [3][6] - The supply-demand structure in the bond market is expected to be relatively balanced, with government bond net financing projected at approximately 3.6 trillion yuan in the first quarter, peaking in January and March [3][6] Group 2 - The report highlights the impact of new fund rate regulations, which are expected to ease market sentiment and favor coupon strategies, with a potential slight decline in yields anticipated [6][7] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to return to the central bank's focus range of 1.75%-1.85%, while the 30-10 year yield spread is expected to maintain around 40 basis points [7][8] - The report suggests that institutional behavior may create structural opportunities, particularly in the context of the "opening red" effect from banks and insurance companies [4][6]