近些年，我国经济领域出现了一个奇怪的现象：一边是央行货币超发严重。截至2025年11月末，广义货币（M2）余额为336.99万亿元，同比增长8%。M2的 规模是GDP的2倍。另一边却是国家统计局发布数据显示，2025年全年，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）与上年持平。这意味着，在货币超发的情况之下， 不仅没有出现通胀，而且物价还保持平稳状态。也就是说，目前国内经济处于通缩的周期之内。 而导致国内经济处于通缩周期的原因主要三个：首先，大量超发的货币在金融体系内空转，并没有流向商品市场。所以，商品市场的价格根本涨不起来。再 者，现在各行各业都不景气，多数人收入增长放缓或下降，这就导致了消费市场需求下降；最后，由于传统行业产能过剩，同业竞争激烈，为了能把滞销的 商品买出去，不少厂商只能选择降价促销。如此一来，各类商品价格就始终处于相对稳定的周期内。 在通缩的周期内，社会将处于相对缺钱的状态，应该现金为王。届时一些资产泡沫会破灭，而那些高收益投资品的风险也会上升。所以，建议普通人不要盲 目去炒股、投资房产、购买基金和银行理财产品。更不要因贪图高收益而购买资产管理公司的各类理财产品，否则蚀掉本金就是大概率的事情。 第二， ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 化工组 PVC 昨日PVC期货价格大幅上涨，其中PVC主力期货V2605收盘涨幅达3.02%。上涨主要受宏观预期驱动。 宏观层面，李强主持召开国务院"十五五"规划《纲要草案》编制工作领导小组会议强调，要谋划一批能 够带动全局的重大工程、重大项目、重大载体，市场解读为利好基建，提振PVC需求预期。全国住房城 乡建设工作会议12月22-23日在北京召开，部署明年重点工作时会议提到要着力稳定房地产市场。进一 步强化市场情绪。此外，近期金融监管总局与国务院国资委关于化解债务风险、抵制"内卷式"竞争的表 态，共同构筑了偏强的宏观氛围。 基本面层面，PVC近期小幅改善，低估值，易受宏观情绪影响反弹。当前PVC供应端边际电石法企业继 续降负，整体供应小幅下降，但2025年投产使得PVC供应端呈现充裕格局。需求端下游开工受季节性影 响小幅下降，下游逢低采购，盘面反弹成交清淡。出口订单在双节前仍保持韧性。PVC氯碱综合利润受 烧碱及PVC价格小幅反弹有一定修复，但同比仍低位。海外供应出现收缩信息，美国西湖化学批准2025 年12月关闭45 ...

漩涡的源头，系11月28日起，浙金中心平台上，由俞发祥与 祥源控股提供连带责任担保的多款金融资产收益权产品，陆续 出现到期无法兑付的情况。据不完全统计，兑付资金规模达百 亿元。 作者：蔡越坤 封图：图虫创意 在"百亿兑付危机"爆发一个月后，身家145亿元的浙江富豪俞发祥被采取刑事强制措施。 2025年12月22日晚间，祥源控股集团有限责任公司（下称"祥源控股"）旗下两家A股上市公司祥 源文旅（600576.SH）与交建股份（603815.SH）公告称，公司实际控制人俞发祥因涉嫌犯罪被 绍兴市公安局采取刑事强制措施，案件正在调查过程中。 俞发祥曾表示，文旅事业是其毕生的志业，希望带领祥源为中国文旅行业贡献力量。《2021中国 房地产TOP500测评成果》发布，祥源控股获颁"2021中国房地产开发企业综合实力TOP100"荣 誉。 2023年3月16日，《2023中国房地产百强企业研究成果》发布，祥源控股获颁"2023中国文旅地 产十强企业"奖项，这是祥源第三次上榜，排名提升至第四。 在兑付危机爆发前夜，祥源控股还在资本市场大举扩张。2025年6月2日，港交所发布公告称，祥 源控股以22.95亿港元战略投资海昌海 ...

12月22日晚间，祥源文旅（600576.SH）、交建股份（603815.SH）、海昌海洋公园（02255.HK）三家 上市公司同步发布重磅公告，披露公司实际控制人俞发祥因涉嫌犯罪，已被绍兴市公安局采取刑事强制 措施，相关案件正在调查过程中。 公告显示，截至披露日，三家上市公司均未收到有关机关要求协助调查的通知，公司控制权未发生变 化，生产经营一切正常，上述事项暂未对公司正常生产经营产生重大影响。 债务风险爆发后，监管部门迅速介入。为稳妥处置风险、维护投资者合法权益，绍兴市组建了帮扶祥源 控股集团工作组，并于12月12日正式进驻企业。工作组进驻后，一方面着手排查企业资产及负债情况， 摸清企业经营困难与诉求；另一方面督促企业履行债务责任，确保生产经营正常开展。 绍兴市相关部门当时曾明确表示，将对排查中发现的涉嫌违法犯罪线索移交公安机关依法查处。 12月7日，祥源文旅集团旗下两家上市公司祥源文旅和交建股份迅速发布公告，回应网络传闻，强调相 关产品与上市公司无关、不承担担保责任。同时提到实控人俞发祥承担连带保证责任的金融产品出现部 分逾期兑付，并表示，祥源控股及公司实控人正在与相关方就逾期兑付的具体情况进行沟通处理 ...

2025.12. 23 本文字数：1796，阅读时长大约3分钟 12月22日晚，A股上市的祥源文旅（600576.SH）、交建股份（603815.SH）发布公告称，于当日收 到公司实际控制人俞发祥家属通知，俞发祥因涉嫌犯罪被绍兴市公安局采取刑事强制措施，案件正在 调查过程中。港股上市的海昌海洋公园（02255.HK）也公告称，公司董事会主席、执行董事兼行政 总裁俞发祥因涉嫌犯罪被采取强制措施。 三家上市公司亦表示，截至公告披露日，公司未收到有关机关要求公司协助调查的通知，公司控制权 未发生变化；公司董事和高级管理人员均正常履职，公司生产经营一切正常，上述事项不会对公司正 常生产经营产生重大影响。 与此同时，与俞发祥有关联的俞红华亦辞去了上市公司职务。据交建股份，俞红华因个人原因辞去担 任的公司董事职务及董事会下属审计委员会委员，辞职后将不再担任公司任何职务。 同日，海昌海洋公园董事会也收到了俞红华的书面辞职通知，因个人原因辞去担任上市公司非执行董 事及薪酬委员会成员职务，辞职后不再担任任何职务。 另据交建股份2018年6月披露的招股书，俞红华与俞发祥是堂兄妹关系。1998年起，俞红华就在"祥 源系"任职，先后 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing financial crisis involving Zhejiang Jin Asset Operation Co., Ltd. has led to the judicial freezing of shares held by Yu Faxiang, the actual controller of Xiangyuan Holdings, affecting two listed companies under his control, Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism and Jiaojian Co., Ltd. [1][2] Group 1: Share Freezing Details - Yu Faxiang's direct and indirect holdings in listed companies have entered judicial freezing status, with Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism's controlling shareholder, Xiangyuan Tourism Development Co., Ltd., having approximately 390 million shares frozen, accounting for 99.06% of its holdings and 37.03% of the total share capital [2][3] - The total number of shares frozen for Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism and its associated parties amounts to 612 million shares, representing 58.08% of the company's total share capital [3] - Jiaojian Co., Ltd. reported that Xiangyuan Holdings holds 274 million shares, with 452 million shares frozen, which is 7.31% of the total share capital [3] Group 2: Causes of Judicial Freezing - The freezing of shares is primarily due to pre-litigation preservation procedures related to financial loan guarantee contract disputes and debts associated with a platform linked to Xiangyuan Holdings [4] - The freezing actions involve multiple legal entities, including the Shanghai Financial Court and the Shaoxing Public Security Bureau, indicating a complex web of financial obligations and disputes [4] Group 3: Government Intervention - A workgroup has been established to assist Xiangyuan Holdings in addressing its asset and liability situation, ensuring the company fulfills its debt responsibilities and maintains normal operations [6][7] - The local government is actively investigating the debt risks associated with Xiangyuan Holdings, responding to public concerns and complaints [6][7] - The online service platform of Zhejiang Jin Asset is currently suspended for fund transactions while basic services remain operational, pending the outcome of the investigation [7] Group 4: Market Reaction - Following the announcements, shares of Jiaojian Co., Ltd. fell over 8%, while Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism's stock dropped nearly 2%, reflecting investor concerns regarding the stability of the companies involved [7]

Core Viewpoint - The financial turmoil surrounding the Zhejiang businessman Yu Faxiang and his Xiangyuan Group has led to significant stock price declines for its listed companies, Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism and Jiaojian Co., with stock prices dropping over 20% and 30% respectively in December 2023 [1][5]. Group 1: Company Financial Issues - Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism announced that its production and operations remain normal despite the financial issues faced by its indirect controlling shareholder, Xiangyuan Holdings [5]. - The total assets of Xiangyuan Holdings are approximately 60 billion yuan, with liabilities of around 40 billion yuan, indicating a liquidity crisis exacerbated by the downturn in the real estate market [12]. - The company has been involved in over 200 financial products that have failed to pay out, with a total scale exceeding 10 billion yuan [12][13]. Group 2: Shareholder and Stock Information - As of the announcement date, the actual controller and major shareholder, Xiangyuan Travel, holds 612,433,915 shares, accounting for 58.08% of the total share capital, with all shares being judicially frozen [6][7]. - The judicial freeze includes 461,967,812 shares under pending freeze and 207,360,000 shares under judicial pledge, indicating severe restrictions on shareholder activities [6][10]. - In Jiaojian Co., the controlling shareholder's 274,293,290 shares, representing 44.32% of the total share capital, have also been frozen, with 45,243,290 shares under judicial freeze [9][10]. Group 3: Government Response and Support - Following the financial crisis, the local government has established a working group to assist Xiangyuan Holdings in managing its debts and ensuring normal operations [14][16]. - The working group began its investigation on December 12, 2023, focusing on asset and liability assessments to facilitate targeted support for the company [16]. - The Zhejiang provincial government has set up multiple channels for investors to voice their concerns and complaints regarding the financial products and the ongoing situation [17].

"我很相信一件事：若经营的生意缺乏持续性，早晚会倒闭！" 一句话让人醍醐灌顶。 李泽楷有次谈及了日本大财团的问题，他批评当年日本在泡沫期间大肆放贷，高利贷公司得意忘形，"当年在日本借贷，你可以晚上十一 时离开酒吧，按一个键拍下影片（影像），输入身份证号码便能借钱，但日息高达10%以上。" 在他看来，这种模式是不可持续的，是不健康的商业模式。 其实就是常识吧，涸泽而渔，无以为继，最终就是得到一个很坏的结果。 如果你也相信这个常识，那对很多事就会有不一样的看法。 比如美国的问题，有人就指出美国的头号敌人是自己，是自己不断膨胀的联邦债务。桥水基金创始人达利欧也曾指出这个问题："货币/ 经济秩序正在崩溃，原因在于（美国）现有债务规模过大，新增债务速度过快，而资本市场与经济体系又严重依赖这一不可持续的债务 结构。" 想一想马斯克过去那个"效率部"，核心目标就是降本增效，以求缩减债务。美联储降息也是为了降低美债成本，延缓债务灾难的爆发。 在达利欧看来，历史上的强国一般分6个阶段：1、建立新秩序；2、官僚制度完善；3、繁荣期、盛世；4、运转成本和债务增加；5、财 政状况恶化、内耗严重；6、革新。 按照这个划分，美国现在正处 ...

来源：华创证券研究 7.出口价格增速转正，推动PPI超预期复苏 8.租金加速下降二手房下行预期或带来新一轮地产政策 2026年宏观脑洞开在哪儿 2018年以来，我们已经连续多次发布年度宏观脑洞报告，目的是在市场一致预期之外，提供更多发散的可能。一致性预期往往已映射到资产价格中，而对 一致性预期的偏离才是市场波动和博弈的空间所在。对于投资而言，应对的重要性远大于精准的预测。因此我们还是希望给出一些在一致性预期之外概率 较高的情景，主要内容如下： 1.美国通胀压力超预期, 美联储重启加息 2.欧元区债务风险放大 欧洲央行重新扩表 3.黄金价格转入持续调整 4.美国原油产量触顶回落，油金比触底回升 5.居民消费可能超预期 6.出口继续超预期 风险提示：地缘政治冲击；政策超预期变动。 ...

Core Insights - The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report indicates that the global economy is in a state of "fragile resilience" for 2024-2025, characterized by superficial stability but underlying weaknesses and accumulating risks [1] - Global economic growth is projected to slow to 2.6% in 2025, down from 2.9% in 2024 [1] Demand-Side Weakness - Global demand is weak, with sluggish domestic spending and consumer purchasing power under pressure, particularly due to high interest rates that suppress economic activity and domestic demand [1] - The inability of demand to spontaneously recover is identified as a primary reason for the lack of internal momentum in growth [1] Investment Weakness - There is a notable lack of investment momentum, particularly in private investment and fixed capital formation, leading to delayed capital expenditures by businesses due to high financing costs and uncertain profit outlooks [1] - The absence of investment sources to drive the next growth cycle is eroding long-term growth potential [1] Economic Outlook and Uncertainties - The global economic outlook is skewed towards a downward trend, with multiple uncertainties affecting recovery, including sustained high interest rates that increase financing costs for businesses and governments [2] - Trade policy uncertainties remain at historically high levels, impacting corporate investment and contributing to a slowdown in global trade [2] Systemic Risks and Climate Impact - Geopolitical tensions, trade wars, and regional supply chain restructuring are expected to exacerbate systemic risks by 2025 [3] - Climate-related extreme events are increasing in developing countries, leading to disruptions in food prices and supply chains, which in turn strain public investment [3] Debt Risks - Developing countries face significant debt risks, with 35 out of 68 low-income countries either in or at high risk of debt distress, which could lead to long-term output declines and increased borrowing costs [3] Policy Recommendations - The report suggests major policy shifts to stabilize macroeconomic and financial conditions, including avoiding overly tight monetary policies and expanding fiscal space [4] - It emphasizes the need for a restructured global financial architecture to lower financing costs and enhance funding access for developing countries [4] - A trade system centered on development is recommended to reduce uncertainties and strengthen multilateral cooperation [4] - Addressing climate and debt risks through expanded climate financing and debt architecture reforms is crucial [4] - Coordination among trade and financial policies is essential to effectively respond to systemic downward risks [4]