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美对印关税生效,大量订单取消!印度官员:鼓励开拓中国、拉美、中东市场
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-27 09:52
【文/观察者网 王恺雯】美国以印度持续购买俄罗斯石油为由,把对印度商品的关税税率提高至50%。新关税已于8月27日生效,印度成为被美 国加征关税最高的经济体之一。 作为印度最大的出口市场,美国的新关税措施威胁着印度的出口和就业。"印度出口商准备应对美国订单的大幅减少。"路透社写道。印度《经 济时报》则称,印度面临一场多年来最严峻的贸易冲击。经济学家预计,美国的关税将导致印度经济增速下滑。 在美国新关税生效前夕,印度总理莫迪作出强硬表态,称无论面对多大的压力,他领导的印度政府都将保护农民和小企业家的利益。 此前,印度与美国经历了五轮贸易谈判,印方一度对结果表示乐观,认为关税可能在15%左右。然而,随着关税生效日期的临近,美国并没有 给印度"惊喜"。 印度商业和工业部一名不愿透露姓名的官员26日对路透社表示,印度政府对美国立即降低或推迟关税已不抱任何希望。 上述官员补充说,受关税冲击的出口商将获得印度政府的财政支持,政府还鼓励他们开拓中国、拉丁美洲和中东地区市场。 根据美国贸易代表办公室的数据,2024年印度和美国的双边贸易额约为1290亿美元,美国对印度的商品出口总额为418亿美元,进口额为874亿 美元,贸易 ...
当下如何投资?这场会议这么说
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2025-08-23 01:58
8月22日,排排网全球在香港举办首届对冲基金颁奖典礼暨家族办公室颁奖典礼。 前沿资产(香港)创始人/CIO陈家馨表示,早在AI尚未进入大众视野时,它已在量化领域有了一 定的用武之地。如今,AI早已超越单纯的投研工具,不仅能深度赋能研究,还可系统优化研究与投资 流程。对于希望发挥AI价值的管理人而言,完全可以将其无缝融入现有体系。 Attention Research(倍漾香港)董事长冯霁认为,中国管理人出海包含两条路径:一是赴海外募资 并投向全球市场,二是吸引全球资金回流中国。未来十年,第二条路径或将更具吸引力。A股流动性位 居全球第二,中国量化管理人有责任携手让世界重新认识、认可并拥抱中国市场。 "资本市场最大的规律是周期性。站在当前时间节点,牛市已是客观事实,未来对港股、A股依然 保持乐观。"中欧瑞博(香港)董事长吴伟志表示,现阶段,仓位比追求完美的股票更重要。 方圆基金(香港)首席执行官谭姝玥指出,在境内外利差仍大的背景下,2024年亚洲美元债市场的 焦点是发行人对存量海外债务的管理与置换;随着"南向通"扩容,投资者结构将在2025年重塑,从而催 生新的投资机遇。 全球价值链投资执行董事万成水表示,私募 ...
对话邢予青:为什么日本这么重视旅游业
经济观察报· 2025-08-09 07:21
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of developing high-end service industries in China to address income inequality and stimulate domestic demand, highlighting the need for skilled talent to create new consumption opportunities [2][4][9]. Group 1: Demand Expansion - The Chinese economy faces insufficient domestic demand and weak consumption, primarily due to a supply focus on basic needs like food, rather than higher-level consumer demands [5][9]. - According to Maslow's hierarchy of needs, consumers are now seeking more sophisticated services, which require high-skilled talent to meet these new demands [5][6]. - The development of high-end service industries is crucial for creating new employment opportunities and stimulating consumption, which is essential for reversing the current demand shortfall [5][9]. Group 2: Anti-Competition Measures - The article discusses the need to address unreasonable local government industrial policies that contribute to "involution" or excessive competition, suggesting that solutions should be sought within industrial policy frameworks [2][12]. - It highlights the importance of adjusting regulatory policies in various sectors, such as entertainment and tourism, to foster a more conducive environment for high-end service development [6][7]. Group 3: Global Value Chain and Industrial Policy - The article notes that multinational companies are re-evaluating their global value chain distribution to balance risks, which aligns with the trend of Chinese companies expanding overseas [3][18]. - It argues that the focus should shift from merely increasing production capacity to enhancing the value created by industries, emphasizing the need for companies to move up the value chain [22][23]. - The experience of Japan in transitioning from industrial growth to prioritizing service industries is presented as a model for China, illustrating the importance of adapting to changing consumer needs [10][11]. Group 4: Tourism and Service Industry Development - The article points out that Japan's tourism industry has significantly grown due to government policies aimed at increasing foreign visitors, which has also created numerous job opportunities [8][11]. - It contrasts the immediate economic benefits of industrial projects with the long-term, inclusive growth potential of the service sector, advocating for a shift in focus towards developing high-end services [9][10]. Group 5: Regulatory Environment - The article stresses the need for a suitable social atmosphere and regulatory environment to support the growth of high-end service industries, citing issues like high transaction costs in tourism as barriers to attracting foreign visitors [6][7]. - It suggests that regulatory adjustments in certain sectors could enhance service quality and consumer experience, ultimately benefiting the economy [7][12].
对话邢予青:为什么日本这么重视旅游业
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2025-08-08 03:29
Group 1: Policy Direction - The core policy themes for China in 2025 are "expanding domestic demand" and "countering involution," focusing on effective investment and consumption stimulation while addressing excessive competition in certain industries [1][9] - Professor Xing Yuqing emphasizes the need to analyze the deep-rooted causes of insufficient domestic demand and increasing involution to make necessary adjustments [1][2] Group 2: Consumer Demand - According to Maslow's hierarchy of needs, Chinese consumers are moving towards higher-level demands, indicating a need for high-skilled talent to create supply for these new consumption needs [1][2] - The development of high-end service industries is crucial for increasing income for skilled individuals, which in turn can stimulate demand [1][3] Group 3: Involution and Industrial Policy - Involution is exacerbated by unreasonable local government industrial policies, suggesting a need to revisit industrial policies to find solutions [1][10] - The phenomenon of excessive competition, such as price wars in the food delivery market, highlights the need for regulation to prevent unhealthy business practices [10][18] Group 4: Service Industry Development - The service industry, particularly high-end services, is essential for creating new employment opportunities and stimulating demand, which is currently lacking in China [3][4] - Japan's tourism industry serves as a successful model, demonstrating the importance of service sectors in driving economic growth and providing a more equitable growth model compared to capital-intensive industries [6][7] Group 5: Global Value Chain and Corporate Strategy - Companies are increasingly adjusting their global value chain distribution to balance risks, which aligns with the trend of Chinese enterprises going global [2][12] - The focus should shift from merely increasing production capacity to enhancing the value created by enterprises, positioning them as leaders in the global value chain [2][16] Group 6: Regulatory Environment - A conducive regulatory environment is necessary for the growth of high-end service industries, with calls for adjustments in regulations to improve service quality [4][5] - The need for stricter regulations in certain sectors, such as the medical beauty industry, is highlighted to ensure consumer safety and industry integrity [5][18]
全球价值链演进与中国产业发展实践
Xin Hua Ri Bao· 2025-08-04 23:32
Group 1 - The article discusses the intensifying competition and cooperation among major global powers, highlighting the politicization and weaponization of economic issues, leading to a restructuring of the global value chain and international division of labor [1] - Since the reform and opening up, China has experienced two typical stages in the global value chain: initial entry into the global value chain and dual embedding within it [1][2] - The initial stage involved China leveraging its labor advantages to engage in low-value-added manufacturing, primarily through outsourcing from multinational corporations, which allowed for the development of export-oriented economic models [2][3] Group 2 - As China's demographic dividend diminishes and Western countries adopt a "de-globalization" stance, Chinese manufacturing faces pressures from both high-end production returning to developed countries and low-end production shifting to developing countries [4] - The key to overcoming low-end lock-in is to invest in advanced production factors, transforming the value chain into a learning and innovation chain, while also restructuring the global value chain to be more China-centric [4][5] - The dual embedding model allows Chinese enterprises to cluster in industrial parks, enhancing their ability to upgrade products and processes through shared resources and services [5] Group 3 - The restructuring of the global value chain post-US-China trade tensions is characterized by shorter, more regionalized supply chains and a steeper "smile curve," reflecting a shift in value chain division based on geopolitical considerations [6] - Developed countries are employing various measures to hinder China's industrial upgrades, including technology decoupling and investment restrictions, which aim to reshape the global value chain under their control [6][7] - In response, China needs to shift its strategy from merely integrating into the global value chain to constructing a national value chain, focusing on building an internal demand-driven global value chain [7] Group 4 - The internal demand-driven global value chain emphasizes self-sufficiency, dynamic competition, and the extension of industrial chains, as exemplified by China's high-speed rail sector leveraging domestic demand for innovation [7] - To achieve this, China must enhance its technological innovation capabilities, improve the business environment, and strategically guide the relocation of its manufacturing sectors [7]
世界首次五百强断崖差距:日本149家,美国151家,中国3家,现在呢
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-22 14:29
Group 1 - The "Fortune Global 500" ranking reflects significant changes in the number of companies from the US, Japan, and China over the past 30 years, with China experiencing remarkable growth from 3 to 133 companies, while the US decreased from 151 to 139 and Japan from 149 to 40 [5][12][23] - The decline of Japanese companies is attributed to factors such as the long-term stagnation of GDP growth, aging population, and lack of innovation, leading to a significant drop in the number of firms on the list [10][19] - US companies, despite a decrease in numbers, maintain dominance in technology and finance, with major firms like Apple and Microsoft generating profits that surpass the total profits of many Chinese companies [7][21] Group 2 - China's rise in the ranking is linked to reforms, internationalization post-WTO accession, and the Belt and Road Initiative, which have facilitated the expansion of state-owned enterprises and the growth of private companies like Huawei and BYD [12][17] - In the energy and infrastructure sectors, Chinese companies like State Grid and Sinopec have thrived due to high domestic demand and global energy transition opportunities [17] - The technology sector in China is still catching up, with companies like Huawei and ByteDance emerging, but challenges remain in high-end chip production and industrial software [18][19] Group 3 - Japan's traditional strengths in electronics and automotive industries are eroding, with only a few companies remaining competitive, and a significant drop in R&D investment compared to China and the US [10][19] - The US strategy has shifted towards consolidating core competencies, with tech giants focusing on mergers and acquisitions to strengthen their market positions, while traditional manufacturing firms face decline [21] - The future competitiveness of companies from these three countries will depend on their ability to adapt to technological revolutions and industry transformations [23]
专访刘尚希:企业要避免“增产不增收”“增收不增利”,当前产业转型升级重在提升全球价值链中地位
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-07-15 15:47
Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the significant growth in high-tech manufacturing and emerging industries in China, driven by both market demand and supportive policies, indicating a positive trend in industrial transformation and alignment with national development strategies [1][3][5]. Group 1: Industry Growth Highlights - In the first half of the year, the value added of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 9.5%, with notable production growth in 3D printing equipment (43.1%), new energy vehicles (36.2%), and industrial robots (35.6%) [3][5]. - The rapid growth in related industries is attributed to strong market demand and supportive government policies, such as tax incentives and equipment upgrades [3][5]. Group 2: Global Value Chain Positioning - Despite rapid industrial development, China's industries need to enhance their position in the global value chain, as they currently face challenges in international competitiveness, particularly in terms of value-added products [7][8]. - The manufacturing sector, while large and accounting for about 30% of the global market, still needs to transition from low-end to mid-high-end production to improve competitiveness [7][8]. Group 3: Innovation and Business Models - Technological innovation is crucial for industrial transformation, but it must be complemented by innovative business models to effectively convert technology into value [9][10]. - Historical trends show that every technological revolution is accompanied by business model innovation, which is essential for sustainable development and competitive advantage [10]. Group 4: Employment Market Changes - The transformation of industries has led to structural changes in the labor market, with new job roles emerging that require skilled labor, while traditional roles are declining due to technological advancements [11][12]. - Addressing the mismatch between labor supply and demand necessitates reforms in the education system to better align workforce skills with industry needs [12]. Group 5: Financial Support for Transformation - The current financing structure in China, which relies heavily on indirect financing, does not adequately meet the needs of innovative enterprises that require long-term capital [13]. - To support industrial transformation, there is a need to increase the proportion of direct financing and develop capital markets to provide the necessary funding for innovation and equipment upgrades [13]. Group 6: Policy Recommendations - Fiscal and tax policies should be tailored to support high-tech and innovative industries without disrupting market competition, ensuring that companies remain motivated to innovate and compete in the market [14]. - Government support should focus on market-oriented financial mechanisms rather than solely relying on project-based funding, ensuring that policies effectively promote industrial transformation [14].
“拉中关系拥有光明前景”
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-07-04 21:56
Group 1 - The establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Colombia marks its 45th anniversary, with Colombia officially joining the high-quality co-construction of the "Belt and Road" initiative in May [2] - Bilateral trade between China and Colombia is projected to exceed $19.3 billion in 2024, representing a growth of over 1900 times compared to the initial years of diplomatic relations [2] - Colombia aims to enhance agricultural exports to China and seeks to attract more Chinese investments in agriculture, technology, and ecological protection [2] Group 2 - Chinese companies are involved in constructing the Bogotá Metro Line 1, which is the largest infrastructure project in Colombia's history [3] - A new shipping route connecting Shanghai, Peru's Chancay Port, and Colombia's Buenaventura Port was launched in February, further promoting economic cooperation and job creation in Colombia [3] - There is significant potential for agricultural technology cooperation between China and Colombia, particularly in the processing of specialty agricultural products like coffee and cocoa [3] Group 3 - The China-Latin America Forum, which has been operational for 10 years, serves as a crucial platform for regional integration and cooperation between Latin American countries and China [4] - Strengthening collaboration between Latin America and China can enhance the representation and voice of the Global South in global governance [4] - The relationship between Latin America and China is expected to deepen, with ongoing efforts to promote development agendas and enhance global dialogue [4]
特朗普和马斯克的最大失败: 高估了技术,低估了人性
Hu Xiu· 2025-07-03 13:39
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the social processes surrounding technology, particularly focusing on the historical context of the mechanical reaper and pneumatic forming machines, highlighting how technological advancements can lead to economic changes while also exacerbating labor exploitation and wealth inequality [2][3][24]. Group 1: Historical Context and Technological Impact - The invention of the mechanical reaper by Cyrus McCormick significantly improved agricultural productivity and contributed to the industrial revolution in the United States [1]. - After McCormick's death, his successor, Cyrus McCormick Jr., reduced worker wages and replaced skilled labor with pneumatic forming machines, leading to lower quality production but higher profits [1][2]. - The use of pneumatic forming machines allowed for mass production of mechanical reapers, intensifying labor exploitation and capital accumulation [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Theories and Technology - The article critiques technological determinism, which posits that technology autonomously drives social and economic changes, arguing instead that technology is influenced by political, economic, and cultural factors [4][5]. - Public funding plays a crucial role in technological advancement, as seen in the U.S. where government support has historically driven innovation in various sectors [6][7]. - The relationship between technology and economic development is complex, with public finance often not translating technological gains into broader social benefits [8][9]. Group 3: International Trade and Development - Daron Acemoglu's analysis indicates that the same technology can have different impacts on developed and developing countries, with the latter often unable to benefit from imported technologies due to mismatched labor skills [10][11]. - Global value chains allow developing countries to access technology, but the technologies introduced are often not suited for their labor markets, leading to limited economic benefits [12][13]. - The article highlights that the introduction of labor-saving technologies in developing countries can exacerbate existing inequalities and fail to create sufficient employment opportunities [14][15][16]. Group 4: Conclusion and Implications - While technological advancements can lower costs and improve efficiency, they do not guarantee economic development, as the distribution of economic benefits remains a critical issue [22][23]. - The discussion on the social processes of technology emphasizes the need for policies that ensure technological advancements contribute to broader economic and social welfare [25].
越南全面开放市场,换取美国20%关税,美越关税协定暗藏杀机
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-03 10:09
Core Viewpoint - The recent trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam is perceived as an unequal treaty, where Vietnam opens its domestic market in exchange for a 20% base tariff reduction on its exports to the U.S., potentially leading to severe consequences for its local industries [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Implications - The agreement includes a 40% punitive tariff on "third-country transshipment goods," specifically targeting the Chinese supply chain, which could severely impact Vietnam's electronics and textile sectors [3]. - Vietnam's early disclosure of negotiation positions, particularly in agricultural market access, lacks transitional protection, risking the collapse of its agricultural system under U.S. subsidized products [3][4]. - The influx of U.S. goods at zero tariffs may provide short-term consumer benefits but will likely lead to long-term damage to Vietnam's manufacturing sector, particularly in the automotive industry where local brands hold less than 5% market share [3][5]. Group 2: Cultural and Economic Sovereignty - The U.S. demands for Vietnam to fully open its entertainment market could lead to a monopoly by American platforms like Netflix and Disney, undermining local cultural industries and altering the value perceptions of the younger generation [4]. - The agreement's "90-day grace period" serves as a political leverage tool, indicating the U.S. view of Vietnam as a battleground in the trade war with China, which may undermine Vietnam's geopolitical standing [4]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Risks - Historical precedents show that developing countries often suffer severe consequences from unequal trade agreements, as seen in Mexico's corn industry post-NAFTA and China's WTO accession without sufficient protection [5]. - The agreement's stringent intellectual property protections and prohibition on technology transfer could permanently confine Vietnam to a low-end position in the global value chain, risking its long-term economic development [5]. - The current global shift from globalization to regionalization highlights the need for economic sovereignty, which Vietnam appears to be compromising, potentially leading to a loss of market share and development opportunities [5].