Core Viewpoint - The market is anticipating the last interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve this year, with a consensus leaning towards a rate cut. The potential new chair has indicated that the negative impact of a government shutdown on the economy is greater than expected, but a stronger economic rebound is anticipated in Q1 next year, suggesting that a "cautious rate cut" is appropriate, with a prediction of a 25 basis point cut in December [1][6]. Group 1: Market Overview - The overall Hong Kong stock market has experienced a pullback, but there is a noticeable trend of capital inflow, particularly into the Hang Seng Tech ETF (513130), which has seen a net inflow of 2.478 billion yuan over the past month, bringing its total size to 42.862 billion yuan and shares to 5.8522 billion, with a year-to-date increase of 25.5 billion shares [1][6]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the Hang Seng Tech Index is 23.29 times, which is at the lower end of the past five years' range, making it more attractive compared to the Nasdaq's 42.21 times and the STAR Market's 152.29 times [1][6]. Group 2: Future Outlook for Hong Kong Tech Sector - The external environment suggests that maintaining monetary easing is crucial, especially with a weak job market, and a high probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut could alleviate global liquidity pressures, benefiting interest-sensitive Hong Kong tech assets [2][7]. - Internally, continuous inflow of southbound funds, improving profitability of leading companies, and low valuation levels are expected to provide resilience for the Hong Kong tech sector [2][7]. - Huatai Securities recommends focusing on liquidity turning points and sectors that have undergone significant adjustments, such as technology and pharmaceuticals, while also considering alpha opportunities in consumer goods [2][7]. Group 3: Hang Seng Tech ETF Characteristics - The Hang Seng Tech ETF (513130) closely tracks the Hang Seng Tech Index, which includes 30 strong R&D internet platforms and tech manufacturing companies, covering various sectors such as internet, media, software, automotive, and semiconductors, making it a comprehensive and representative index [3][7]. - The ETF offers advantages such as large scale, superior liquidity, and support for T+0 trading, with a management fee of only 0.2% per year, positioning it as a key tool for investors looking to invest in core Hong Kong tech assets [3][7].

当全球格局出现"东稳西荡"的变化时，这种结构性优势就会转化为实际的资金流向。王庆预判，随着全 球投资者重新评估风险收益，资金可能会从过度配置的美国市场逐步流向配置不足的中国市场。 对于中国资本市场而言，这种全球资金再平衡意味着历史性的发展机遇。随着国际投资者重新认识中国 市场的价值和潜力，中国资产有望获得更加合理的定价，资本市场功能将得到进一步完善。这种资金的 重新配置不仅会直接推动中国资产的价值重估进程，还将为中国经济的高质量发展提供重要的金融支 持。 责任编辑：江钰涵 11月28日，重阳投资董事长兼首席经济学家王庆在2025分析师大会上接受独家访谈时指出，全球资金配 置目前呈现出极不平衡的状态——对美国市场的配置严重过高，而对中国市场的配置则显著偏低。这种 配置格局与两国实际的经济实力对比形成了鲜明反差。 王庆认为，从经济实力和科技创新的角度来看，中美两国都处于全球领先地位，尤其是在科技创新领 域，两国共同站在了世界前沿。然而金融市场的资产配置却远未反映出这种真实的经济实力对比。当前 这种配置偏差为全球资金流动创造了一个重要的结构性机会。 王庆指出，这种配置不平衡背后蕴藏着重要的投资逻辑。由于全球资金严重 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that there is a significant imbalance in global capital allocation, with excessive investment in the US market and insufficient investment in the Chinese market, which does not reflect the actual economic strength of both countries [1][2] - Wang Qing, Chairman and Chief Economist of Chongyang Investment, emphasizes that both China and the US are leaders in economic strength and technological innovation, yet the financial market asset allocation does not mirror this reality [1] - The current allocation discrepancy creates a structural opportunity for global capital flow, as a potential shift in the US economy or capital market could lead to a reallocation of funds towards the undervalued Chinese market [1][2] Group 2 - The anticipated shift in global capital from the over-allocated US market to the under-allocated Chinese market represents a historic development opportunity for China's capital market [2] - This rebalancing of global funds is expected to lead to a more reasonable pricing of Chinese assets and further enhance the functionality of the capital market [2] - The reallocation of funds will not only drive the value reassessment of Chinese assets but also provide crucial financial support for the high-quality development of the Chinese economy [2]

Group 1 - The scale of private equity funds in mainland China reached a historical high of 22.05 trillion yuan in October, with the existing private securities investment funds surpassing 7 trillion yuan for the first time [1] - The Chinese stock market is expected to have upward potential in 2026, with A-shares showing a relatively high dividend and risk premium compared to ten-year government bonds, indicating a better value proposition for stocks over bonds [1][3] - In 2025, global equity assets are anticipated to rise significantly, with Chinese stocks still having a valuation advantage compared to major overseas markets, suggesting potential for catch-up growth in A-shares in 2026 due to domestic and global market dynamics [3] Group 2 - Citic Securities released a strategy report indicating that breaking the current market deadlock will require significant positive changes in the fundamentals, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand in the future [3] - The report suggests maintaining investment in resource sectors and traditional manufacturing, as well as focusing on companies expanding overseas, as key strategies until substantial changes in the market occur [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Index has experienced a significant valuation recovery this year, driven by a global rebalancing of funds towards non-US markets and asset revaluation led by industry narratives [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The Hang Seng Index's decline was influenced by multiple factors, including a strong US dollar cycle that suppressed emerging market asset valuations [1] - With the weakening of the US dollar and emerging uncertainties, there has been a trend of global fund reallocation towards non-US assets, boosting emerging markets [1] - As of October 2023, the proportion of overseas active funds allocated to the Chinese market has risen to 7.2% [1] Group 2: Valuation Insights - The current valuation of the Hong Kong stock market is above historical averages, positioned at 1.5 to 1.7 standard deviations above the mean, indicating potential short-term pullback pressure [2] - The Hang Seng Index's price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be around 10.6 times by the end of 2024, with a risk premium above the 90th percentile historically, suggesting a high safety margin [1] Group 3: Capital Flows - There has been a strong inflow of southbound funds, with a cumulative net inflow exceeding 1.2 trillion yuan as of November 12, 2023 [2] - The daily trading volume of southbound funds in the Hong Kong main board has significantly increased, reaching nearly 40% at its peak, and currently stabilizing around 30% [2] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Key investment opportunities in the Hong Kong market include the AI industry chain, the optimization of competition in the internet sector, and the recovery of demand in certain consumer segments [3] - The manufacturing sector is expected to maintain its advantages, with breakthroughs in key technologies and long-term value in high-end manufacturing and hard technology sectors [3] - The healthcare industry is seeing improved policy environments, enhancing competitiveness and growth potential in the biopharmaceutical sector [3] - The chemical and raw materials industries are experiencing a recovery in profit expectations, making related companies' performance worth monitoring [3] - There may be a rotation of capital from high-dividend sectors like telecommunications and utilities towards cyclical and growth assets [3]

Group 1 - The recent market news strengthens expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with Chairman Powell signaling a potential halt to balance sheet reduction and highlighting worsening labor market conditions [1] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates a stable overall labor market in the U.S., but with weak demand, further boosting rate cut expectations [1] - The offshore Hong Kong stock market, particularly the technology sector, is expected to benefit significantly from continued global liquidity [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Tech ETF (513130) has seen substantial inflows, with over 15.6 billion yuan invested in October 2025, indicating strong market interest [2] - The ETF's total shares have surpassed 50.36 billion, reaching a record high since its inception, reflecting robust demand [2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index, closely tracked by the ETF, represents a significant portion of the Hong Kong tech sector, including 30 leading companies across various industries [2] Group 3 - Long-term forecasts suggest that improvements in supply-demand dynamics may lead to a turning point in the Chinese economic cycle, with capital expenditure and R&D in the tech sector becoming new growth engines [2] - The combination of U.S. rate cuts and supportive policies in China is expected to attract continued inflows from southbound and foreign investors into Hong Kong stocks [2] - The Hang Seng Tech ETF offers advantages such as large scale, good liquidity, and low fees, making it a key tool for investors looking to capitalize on the recovery of the Hong Kong tech sector [2]

Group 1: Core Insights - Global risk appetite has been declining, with significant capital inflows into US fixed income funds and outflows from US small-cap and large-cap growth stocks [1] - The overall trend indicates a global capital rebalancing, with increased investment interest in emerging markets while US equities face outflow pressure [1] Group 2: Market Performance Review - In September 2025, the Hong Kong stock market outperformed globally, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 13.95% and the Hang Seng Index increasing by 7.49%, while markets in Vietnam and Germany saw slight declines [2] - Overall, most global stock markets rose in September, with technology growth stocks leading the performance [2] Group 3: Cross-Border Capital Flows - In September, the southbound trading of the Hong Kong Stock Connect maintained a net buying trend, reaching a year-to-date high in net inflow, primarily into non-essential consumer sectors [3] - Global funds saw significant inflows into fixed income funds and outflows from equity funds, reflecting a decrease in investor risk appetite [3] - QDII-ETF funds experienced substantial net inflows into the Hang Seng Tech sector, while other indices like the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index saw minor outflows [3]

Group 1 - International capital is reassessing and positioning in the Hong Kong stock market, indicated by Alibaba's stock surge and the presence of prestigious cornerstone investors in IPOs [1][4] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have led to a weaker dollar and declining U.S. Treasury yields, making Hong Kong an attractive destination for global capital inflows [1][2] - The total market capitalization of the Hong Kong securities market reached HKD 46.6 trillion by the end of August 2025, a 47% increase from HKD 31.8 trillion in the same period last year [2] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing significant liquidity improvements, attracting international capital due to its appealing valuation "discount" [2] - Foreign long-term funds are actively subscribing to cornerstone investments in Hong Kong IPOs, with notable companies like CATL and Hengrui Medicine receiving strong interest [4] - As of September 17, foreign net inflows into offshore Chinese stocks reached USD 1.86 billion, marking the highest weekly inflow since November of the previous year [4] Group 3 - The Hang Seng Tech Index has risen over 41.5% year-to-date as of September 24, with Alibaba's market capitalization returning to HKD 3 trillion [3] - Major foreign investment banks have recently issued bullish reports on well-known Hong Kong-listed companies, indicating a positive outlook for Chinese assets [5] - Analysts expect continued foreign inflows into Hong Kong stocks as companies in sectors like AI, internet, and innovative pharmaceuticals show strong growth momentum [5]

Group 1 - In July, the US economy showed resilience, with inflation pressures greater than stagnation, leading to a reversal of the global "rebalancing" trend, with capital flowing back to the US [4][9][8] - The US unemployment rate in July was 4.2%, aligning with market expectations, while the second-quarter GDP rebounded, indicating overall economic strength despite structural weaknesses [4][9][17] - The S&P 500 companies reported earnings and revenues that exceeded market expectations, which boosted market sentiment and attracted foreign capital back to US assets, with foreign investments in US stocks increasing by $11.36 billion [4][17][9] Group 2 - In July, domestic "anti-involution" policies were beneficial, with multiple measures implemented to combat low-price competition, leading to a significant recovery in upstream prices [5][36][41] - The "anti-involution" policies positively impacted the supply side, alleviating cost pressures and improving profit margins, with industrial profits showing a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [5][36][53] - However, demand remained weak, with external demand performing better than internal demand, as evidenced by a 9% year-on-year decline in retail sales in the passenger car market [5][53][54] Group 3 - In August, the focus will be on the labor market trends in the US and the continuation of "anti-involution" policies in China [6][63] - The US labor market showed signs of weakness, with a rising unemployment rate and a contraction in the number of people finding jobs, indicating potential challenges for economic growth [6][63][64] - In China, attention will be on the marginal changes in domestic demand and the effectiveness of "anti-involution" measures on mid- and downstream enterprises [6][7][63]

Group 1 - The article discusses the resilience of the US economy in July, highlighting better-than-expected economic performance and the impact of strong Q2 earnings reports, which led to a reversal in global capital "rebalancing" towards the US [2][8] - In July, the US inflation unexpectedly increased, with online retail prices rising due to higher tariffs, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, indicating economic strength despite structural weaknesses [3][9] - The S&P 500 companies reported earnings and revenues that exceeded market expectations, attracting foreign capital back to the US, with foreign investments in US stocks increasing by $11.36 billion [3][18] Group 2 - In July, China's "anti-involution" policies gained traction, with multiple measures implemented to alleviate cost pressures and improve profit margins, particularly in upstream sectors [4][40] - The "anti-involution" policies positively impacted supply-side prices, with the PMI for major raw material purchasing prices rising by 3.1 percentage points to 51.5%, indicating reduced cost pressures [51] - However, demand-side performance remained weak, with external demand showing temporary improvement compared to internal demand, as evidenced by a 9% year-on-year decline in retail sales of passenger vehicles [61] Group 3 - In August, the focus will shift to the labor market trends in the US and the continuation of "anti-involution" policies in China, with concerns about the potential for rising unemployment rates [5][73] - The US unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in July, with a contraction in the number of people finding jobs, indicating a potential weakening of domestic demand [5][73] - China's policies are expected to continue influencing the market, particularly in terms of structural monetary policy tools and the impact on consumer demand [5][40]