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猛派净利润跳空选股公式(几乎免费源码)
猛兽派选股· 2025-09-22 13:30
尽管马克在《股票魔法师》用单独章节详尽讨论了业绩跳空缺口,但实战中依然需要非常谨慎,这个指标在特殊的市场环境和个股的特殊运作节点是有效 的,但也经常被短期资金利用做反向操作。 这就定位到公告日之前的最后一个交易日,那么节假日之后的第一个交易日就很简单了,就是: BARSLAST(DATE1000; 本期能选出的股票大约是57只。 本文参与了公益捐助,有心的朋友一起来帮助一下远方的小朋友。 ...
宏观事件兑现窗口,配置均衡应对波动
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-14 12:03
Market Overview - The market continues to operate in an upward trend, with the core observation variable being whether the market's profit-making effect can be sustained. As long as the profit-making effect remains positive, mid-term incremental capital is expected to continue entering the market [1][4][7] - The current WIND All A trend line is around 6106 points, with a profit-making effect of approximately 1.9%, still positive. It is advised to hold patiently until the profit-making effect turns negative [2][4][7] - The market is entering a significant event window, and volatility is expected to increase significantly. A more balanced allocation is recommended in response to this volatility [2][4][7] Industry Allocation - From a mid-term perspective, the industry allocation continues to recommend sectors that are experiencing a turnaround, particularly innovative pharmaceuticals in Hong Kong, which are still in an upward trend. Additionally, sectors benefiting from policy-driven growth, such as chemicals and innovative new energy, are expected to maintain upward momentum [2][4][7] - The TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on computing power and batteries. In the short term, if the military sector shows significant volume reduction, it may present a good short-term buying opportunity [2][4][7] Performance Metrics - The Davis Double strategy achieved an absolute return of 1.68% this month and a cumulative absolute return of 48.70% for the year. The net profit gap strategy outperformed the benchmark by 1.34% this week, with a cumulative absolute return of 53.50% for the year [1][8][11]
风控指标位于临界位置,如何应对?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-07 10:34
Market Overview - The market continues to operate in an upward trend, with the core observation variable being whether the market's profit-making effect can be sustained. As long as the profit-making effect remains positive, incremental funds are likely to continue entering the market [1][3][9] - The current WIND All A trend line is around 6030 points, with a profit-making effect of 1%, which is at a critical position but still positive. It is advised to hold patiently until the profit-making effect turns negative [1][3][9] - Short-term expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have increased, which may enhance global risk appetite [1][3][9] Investment Strategy - The Davis Double Strategy achieved an excess return of 3.24% this week, with a cumulative absolute return of 48.29% for the year [10] - The net profit gap strategy also reported an excess return of 0.00% this week, with a cumulative absolute return of 46.58% for the year [10][14] - The recommended position is 80%, indicating a moderate level of investment in the market [4] Sector Allocation - Mid-term sector allocation continues to recommend turnaround sectors, particularly Hong Kong innovative pharmaceuticals and securities insurance, which are expected to maintain an upward trend [2][3] - Policy-driven sectors such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and innovative energy are also anticipated to sustain upward momentum [2][3] - The TWO BETA model continues to recommend technology sectors, focusing on consumer electronics and computing power [2][3] Market Volatility - Current market volatility has increased significantly, with some sectors experiencing substantial fluctuations. It is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation and to increase exposure to previously lagging sectors to diversify risk [1][3][9]
深挖财报之2025年中报分析
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-09-02 13:14
Group 1 - The overall performance of A-shares is at a low point, with a focus on transformation and recovery in various sectors [2] - The sectors showing positive economic sentiment include electronics, home appliances, non-bank financials, machinery, non-ferrous metals, computers, food and beverages, defense, telecommunications, media, and agriculture [3][13] - The revenue growth rate for Q2 2025 shows a cumulative year-on-year decline, but the quarterly growth rate is on the rise, with leading sectors including defense, electronics, agriculture, automotive, computers, and non-bank financials [4][53] Group 2 - The overall ROE for Q2 2025 has slightly declined, with the best performance in essential consumer goods at 10.2% [5] - The gross profit margin for non-financial A-shares has slightly decreased, with essential consumer goods showing the highest margin at 30.4% [5][22] - Inventory turnover rates have increased, while accounts payable and receivable turnover rates have decreased [5][18] Group 3 - Most industries are actively replenishing inventory, while agriculture, home appliances, pharmaceuticals, public utilities, construction decoration, telecommunications, and environmental protection are in a passive destocking phase [6][24] - Capital expenditure intentions have rebounded in Q2 2025, although they remain negative overall [6][28] Group 4 - From June 30 to August 30, 2025, the industries with the highest upward revisions in net profit forecasts include steel, non-ferrous metals, beauty care, non-bank financials, and banking [7][30] - The phenomenon of net profit discontinuity is more likely to occur in sectors such as food and beverages, beauty care, non-bank financials, banking, and transportation [7][31]
牛市思维,下周关注哪些行业?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-17 14:06
Market Overview - The market continues to operate in an upward trend, with the core observation variable being whether the market's profit-making effect can be sustained. As long as the profit-making effect remains positive, mid-term incremental capital is expected to continue entering the market [1][2][7] - The current WIND All A trend line is around 5625 points, with a profit-making effect value of 3.73%, which is significantly positive. It is recommended to hold positions patiently and maintain a high allocation until the profit-making effect turns negative [1][2][7] Industry Allocation - From a mid-term perspective, the industry allocation continues to recommend sectors that are experiencing a turnaround, specifically Hong Kong stocks in innovative pharmaceuticals and securities. The upward trend is still ongoing. Additionally, sectors benefiting from policy support, such as photovoltaics, coal, and non-ferrous metals, are expected to maintain an upward trajectory [3][7] - The TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, with a focus on military and computing power [2][3][7] Performance Metrics - The Davis Double Strategy has achieved a cumulative absolute return of 41.19% this year, exceeding the benchmark by 26.47%. This week, the strategy outperformed the benchmark by 1.62% [8][22] - The net profit gap strategy has achieved a cumulative absolute return of 42.83% this year, with a benchmark excess return of 28.11% [12][16] - The enhanced CSI 300 strategy has achieved an excess return of 19.88% relative to the CSI 300 index this year, with a weekly excess return of 0.01% [17][20]
业绩增长未必与股价上涨画等号
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-08-12 06:20
Core Viewpoint - The market's attitude towards companies with significant profit growth has shifted, with recent high-growth companies experiencing stock price declines despite strong earnings forecasts [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Forecasts and Market Reactions - Since late June, companies have been releasing semi-annual earnings forecasts, which have become crucial for short-term stock price movements [1]. - Initially, companies with profit growth exceeding 100% saw positive market reactions, but this trend has reversed, with some companies facing sharp declines despite high growth forecasts [1][2]. - A specific lithium mining company projected a net profit increase of over 40 times, yet its stock plummeted after the announcement, illustrating the disconnect between earnings growth and stock performance [1][2]. Group 2: Importance of Quarterly Performance - Analysts suggest that the second quarter's performance, rather than just the half-year results, is critical in determining stock price movements [2]. - Historical data indicates that companies with stable second-quarter earnings growth relative to the first quarter tend to perform poorly in the stock market during the earnings season [2]. Group 3: Identifying "Exceeding Expectations" - The concept of "exceeding expectations" is central to earnings season, but identifying such opportunities can be challenging for investors [3]. - A quantitative model known as "net profit gap" focuses on stocks that show upward price jumps following earnings announcements, indicating market approval [3]. - The "net profit gap" strategy has yielded an annualized return of 34.10% since 2010, outperforming major indices [3]. Group 4: Sector Performance Disparities - There is a consensus among institutions that significant performance disparities exist between sectors this earnings season, with high growth concentrated in lithium, chemicals, and oil sectors [6]. - The current earnings season is expected to show the most pronounced performance differentiation in five years, leading to rapid fund reallocations between sectors [6]. - The crowded trading in high-performing sectors may increase stock price volatility post-earnings announcements [6].
上行趋势不改,行业如何轮动?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-10 22:51
Market Overview - The market continues to operate in an upward trend, with the core observation variable being whether the market's profit-making effect can be sustained. As long as the profit-making effect remains positive, incremental capital is likely to continue entering the market. The current WIND All A trend line is around 5540 points, with a profit-making effect value of 2.30%, which is significantly positive. It is recommended to hold positions patiently and maintain a high allocation until the profit-making effect turns negative [1][4][8]. Industry Rotation - In terms of industry allocation, the model continues to recommend sectors that are in a turnaround phase, specifically Hong Kong innovative pharmaceuticals and securities, as the upward trend persists. The TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, with a focus on military and computing power. Short-term signals indicate that the liquor and agriculture sectors are entering a low point in the emotional cycle, which may lead to a rebound [2][4][8]. Performance Metrics - The Davis Double strategy achieved an excess benchmark of 1.32% this week, with a cumulative absolute return of 33.83% for the year. The CSI 300 Enhanced strategy also outperformed the benchmark by 1.77% this week, with a cumulative excess return of 19.41% for the year. The net profit gap strategy had an excess benchmark of -0.26% this week, with a cumulative absolute return of 37.50% for the year [1][9][15]. Valuation Indicators - The overall PE of the WIND All A index is at the 70th percentile, indicating a medium level, while the PB is at the 30th percentile, indicating a relatively low level. Based on short-term trend assessments, the absolute return products with WIND All A as the stock allocation subject are recommended to maintain an 80% allocation [4][6][8].
戴维斯双击本周超额基准3.76%
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-03 04:43
Group 1: Davis Double Strategy - The Davis Double strategy involves buying stocks with growth potential at a lower price-to-earnings (PE) ratio, waiting for growth to manifest, and then selling for a multiplier effect, achieving returns from both earnings per share (EPS) and PE increases [7][10] - The strategy has achieved an annualized return of 26.45% during the backtest period from 2010 to 2017, exceeding the benchmark by 21.08% [10] - Year-to-date, the strategy has a cumulative absolute return of 29.82%, outperforming the CSI 500 index by 21.30%, with a weekly excess return of 3.76% [10][14] Group 2: Net Profit Gap Strategy - The Net Profit Gap strategy focuses on selecting stocks based on fundamental and technical resonance, where "net profit" refers to earnings surprises, and "gap" indicates a significant upward price jump on the first trading day after earnings announcements [12][14] - Since 2010, this strategy has achieved an annualized return of 29.83%, with an annualized excess return of 27.67% over the benchmark [14] - The current year's cumulative absolute return for the strategy is 35.44%, exceeding the benchmark index by 26.93%, with a weekly excess return of 0.43% [14] Group 3: Enhanced CSI 300 Portfolio - The Enhanced CSI 300 portfolio is constructed based on investor preferences, including GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price), growth, and value investing styles, utilizing PB-ROE and PE-growth factors to identify undervalued stocks with strong earnings potential [16] - The strategy has shown stable excess returns historically, with a year-to-date excess return of 17.08% relative to the CSI 300 index, and a weekly excess return of 0.45% [16] - The portfolio's performance for the current year reflects a 20.13% absolute return, with a 17.08% excess return over the benchmark [16]
上行趋势中看好什么板块?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-27 10:33
Market Overview - The market continues to operate in an upward trend, with the core observation variable being whether the market's profit-making effect can be sustained. As long as the profit-making effect is positive, incremental capital is expected to continue entering the market. Currently, the WIND All A trend line is around 5400 points, with a profit-making effect value of 4.09%, which is significantly positive. Even in the face of short-term fluctuations, it is recommended to hold patiently or increase positions on dips [1][3][8]. Performance Metrics - The Davis Double strategy has an excess benchmark of -0.44% this week, with a cumulative absolute return of 26.78% for the year. The CSI 300 Enhanced strategy has an excess benchmark of 0.31% this week, with a cumulative excess return of 16.82% for the year. The net profit gap strategy has an excess benchmark of -1.68% this week, with a cumulative absolute return of 35.72% for the year [1][9][13]. Sector Recommendations - In terms of industry allocation, the mid-term perspective continues to recommend sectors that are experiencing a turnaround, including Hong Kong innovative drugs, Hong Kong securities, and Hang Seng consumption. The upward trend remains intact. The TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on military industry, AI applications, and solid-state batteries. Overall, in the upward trend, attention should be paid to high-elasticity sectors such as brokerages and technology [2][3][8]. Valuation Indicators - The overall PE of the WIND All A index is around the 70th percentile, indicating a medium level, while the PB is around the 30th percentile, indicating a relatively low level. Based on short-term trend assessments, the absolute return products with WIND All A as the stock allocation subject are recommended to have an 80% position [4][6]. Market Dynamics - The timing system signals show that the distance between the 20-day and 120-day moving averages continues to expand, with the latest data showing the 20-day line at 5437 and the 120-day line at 5168 points. The difference between the two lines has increased from 4.04% last week to 5.21%, with an absolute value significantly greater than 3%. The market continues to operate in an upward trend [3][8].
603605,两连板!A股这个策略火了
新华网财经· 2025-04-28 09:31
本周,A股2024年年报及2025年一季报披露进入密集期,叠加临近"五一"假期,市场观望情绪较浓,成 交额减少。 在缩量状态下,市场机会更加聚焦。一边是紧盯高股息资产,银行板块上涨, 工商银行、建设银行再 创历史新高 ,"三桶油"、三大运营商等个股都上涨;另一边,市场积极挖掘新热点、新机会, 今天, 影石Insta360全景相机概念火了 ,弘景光电迎来"20CM"涨停,瀛通通讯涨停,联创电子、华金资本、 商络电子、艾为电子等个股都有不同程度上涨。 PEEK材料板块持续上涨 ,板块最近出现新的催化因 素。 值得注意的是,最近"净利润断层"+股价处于低位这个策略组合,频频催化个股行情,比如今天的珀莱 雅(603605)、阳光电源、格力电器等个股均上涨。 截至今天收盘,上证指数下跌0.2%,深证成指下跌0.62%,创业板指下跌0.65%。沪深北三市成交额为 10564亿元,较上周五减少572亿元。 上周五,珀莱雅跳空高开,股价涨停,今天再度涨停,迎来两连板。 珀莱雅2025年一季报显示,报告 期内,公司实现营业总收入23.59亿元,同比增长8.13%;实现归母净利润3.9亿元,同比增长28.87%。 格力电器、阳光 ...