| | | 变化值 | | 尿素早评20251013:向上驱动未现,供给压力驱动向下 | | | 変化值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 单位 10月10日 10月9日 | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 山东 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1597.00 1540.00 1450.00 | 1609.00 1550.00 1460.00 | -12.00 -10.00 -10.00 | -0.75% -0.65% -0.68% | | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1666.00 | 1677.00 | -11.00 | -0.66% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1702.00 | 1701.00 | 1.00 | 0.06% | | 期现价格 | | | | | | | | | | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1530.00 | 1540.00 | -10.00 | -0.65% | | | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | | ...

>>>>> ETF早知道 >>>>> ETF早知道 ETF 早知道 品 wabao WP Fund <<<< >>>>> TFOFF 2025 Oct ETF星知道 EFEF规演 <<<< 市场温度计 >>>> BTF로 9 中长期信号 · 投资看温度 -- 75% = 759b -- 75% -- 2596 -+ 25% --- 2596 ETF 早知道 <<<< 0.52% ↑ 0.35% 0.00% T T 上证指数 深证成指 创业板指 注:温度计水膜条由对应指数的近十年市盈率分值散表示,总值为100%。数据来源:iFind,截至 2025.9.30,上证指数、测证成指、创业板指的近十年市盈丰分位数分别为96.3%。67.17%。52.45% ETFER 0 e e 市场 利用 ETFER® <<<< 短期轮动走向 · 观九宫热力值 +2.12% +3.22% +2.59% 房地产 有色金属 国防军工 +1.71% -0.78% +1.40% 电力设备 医药生物 环保 -1.06% -1.14% -1.83% 综合 非银金融 適信 (4) 数据来源:iFind,截至2015.9.30,以申万一级行业区分 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The proposition of demand overdraft due to pre - export has gradually materialized, and the off - peak season for polyester in the peak season is basically a foregone conclusion. The polyester segment currently faces little short - term pressure, with a marginal improvement in terminal demand. There is an expected seasonal uptick in October, but the sustainability and height of the demand are pessimistic. Starting from November, the production is expected to decline seasonally. With weak demand, polyester raw materials are entering an inventory accumulation phase, lacking upward drivers in the supply - demand balance [1]. - For MEG, the main theme in the fourth quarter is the contradiction between strong current reality and weak future expectations. Near - term supply - demand shows marginal improvement, with port inventories at historical lows and a short - term tight liquidity situation. However, the actual tightness is less severe than indicated by low visible inventories, and the impact on absolute prices is limited. The long - term inventory accumulation expectation has a greater impact on valuation. With the new device coming into operation, the supply load pressure increases, leading to inventory accumulation starting from November. Excess supply is difficult to digest, and MEG will remain in a short - position until its valuation is further compressed [1][17]. - For PX - PTA, prices have rebounded recently due to the resurgence of the "chemical anti - involution" sentiment and marginal improvement in demand. However, the peak season for polyester is not expected to be strong, mainly showing seasonal and phased strength. The polyester load's peak depends on the performance of bottle - chip production. In the fourth quarter, many PTA maintenance plans have been announced. If they are implemented, the structural contradiction of PX - TA will be alleviated before December, and PTA processing fees may be repaired. But the overall excess situation of PTA restricts the repair of processing fees [2][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 MEG Market Review - In the first quarter of 2025, MEG prices dropped significantly due to cost collapse and a weakening supply - demand pattern. In January, prices fluctuated at a high level due to low inventories. In February, prices rebounded slightly and then fell. In March, prices were in a low - level consolidation [3]. - In the second quarter, macro and geopolitical factors dominated. In early April, prices plummeted due to trade disputes, then rebounded and fluctuated. In May, prices rose due to the expectation of pre - export, then weakened. In June, prices rose due to the Israel - Palestine conflict and then fell after the cease - fire [4]. - In the third quarter, the "anti - involution" sentiment influenced prices. In July, prices reached a high and then fell. In August, prices rose and then fell again. In September, prices were under pressure due to the expectation of inventory accumulation [5]. 3.1.2 PTA Market Review - In the first quarter of 2025, PTA prices mainly followed the cost trend, fluctuating in the range of 4700 - 5350. In January, prices reached a high and then fell. In February, prices fluctuated downward. In March, prices were in a low - level consolidation [9]. - In the second quarter, macro and geopolitical factors dominated. In early April, prices dropped to a low due to trade disputes, then rebounded. In May, prices rose due to the expectation of pre - export, then weakened. In June, prices rose due to the Israel - Palestine conflict and then fell after the cease - fire [10]. - In the third quarter, PTA prices fluctuated widely in the range of 4500 - 5000. In July, prices were affected by cost and macro factors. In August, prices first fell and then rose. In September, prices were under pressure and then recovered slightly [10][11]. 3.2 Core Focus Points 3.2.1 MEG - The significance of MEG's historical low visible inventories is diminishing. Port inventories are expected to remain below 600,000 tons before the end of October, with tight short - term liquidity. Domestic production has reached a high level, and supply elasticity is limited. With the resurgence of the "anti - involution" sentiment and coal production inspections, there is limited downward momentum [18]. - The expectation of inventory accumulation continues to suppress MEG's valuation. The early commissioning of Yulong and the planned commissioning of Ningxia Changyi will lead to inventory accumulation, with an expected monthly inventory increase of over 150,000 tons starting from November. If the inventory accumulation expectation is realized, the current production profit may not be maintained, and the EG01 contract may end below 4100 [19]. 3.2.2 PTA - The near - term trading logic of PTA is that the peak season for polyester is not strong. The start - up of filament and staple fiber has reached a high level, and the polyester load depends on bottle - chip production. With the improvement of weaving orders and the reduction of polyester yarn inventory, demand will remain high in October and weaken seasonally in November. The "anti - involution" sentiment has stabilized the commodity mood, and there is limited downward momentum [29]. - The long - term trading expectation of PTA is that PX is in excess relative to polyester in the fourth quarter, and its valuation is expected to fluctuate with cost and macro sentiment. Many PTA maintenance plans have been announced. If implemented, the structural contradiction of PX - TA can be alleviated, and PTA processing fees may be repaired, but the long - term excess situation restricts the repair height. The 01 contract's processing fees are expected to fluctuate between 250 - 400 in the fourth quarter. The "anti - involution" sentiment will repeatedly affect the market, and attention should be paid to the Fourth Plenary Session of the 14th Central Committee and the 15th Five - Year Plan [31]. 3.3 MEG Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 3.3.1 MEG Industry Pattern Analysis - MEG's domestic production capacity has grown rapidly in recent years, changing from supply shortage to over - capacity. Since 2024, the large - scale commissioning period has ended, and the industry is gradually moving towards valuation repair. Currently, ethylene - based production accounts for 62% of the total capacity, and coal - based production accounts for 38%. In 2025, the supply logic has changed, with increased production and reduced supply elasticity [37][38]. 3.3.2 MEG Supply Analysis - Domestic supply: From January to August 2025, the actual domestic production of MEG was 13.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. The average load from January to August was 69.2%, an increase of 4.8% compared to the same period in 2024. Coal - based production has achieved profitability, but with the expectation of inventory accumulation, the valuation is under pressure, and there is still room for price compression [41]. - Import supply: In 2025, the monthly import volume of MEG has increased significantly year - on - year. From January to August, the cumulative import volume was 5.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16%. The import source is becoming more concentrated, mainly from the Middle East and North America. If India's anti - dumping tax policy is implemented, it may change the global logistics pattern [51][53]. 3.3.3 MEG Balance Sheet Analysis - In the fourth quarter, MEG is entering an inventory accumulation phase. Production is expected to remain high, while demand is not expected to be strong. There will be a small inventory accumulation in October and a significant surplus starting from November, which will suppress the valuation. The 01 contract may end below 4100 [60]. 3.4 PTA Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 3.4.1 PX - PTA Industry Pattern Analysis - Domestic PX production capacity has expanded rapidly in recent years, and the commissioning has paused since 2024. PTA production capacity has continued to grow at a high speed. In 2025, new PTA capacity is expected to be put into operation, but there is a possibility of delay. The industrial pattern has changed, with PX supply being relatively tight and PTA supply being in excess [64][68]. 3.4.2 PTA Supply Analysis and Valuation Feedback - In 2025, PTA processing fees have been under pressure. In the first quarter, the average processing fee was 218 yuan/ton, lower than the same period in 2024. In the second quarter, processing fees were repaired due to maintenance and increased demand. In the third quarter, processing fees were under pressure again due to increased supply. In the fourth quarter, if maintenance plans are implemented, the structural contradiction can be alleviated, but the repair of processing fees is limited [70][71]. 3.4.3 PTA Export Demand Analysis - From January to August 2025, PTA exports totaled 2.53 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17%. The decline is mainly due to the new overseas PTA plant in Turkey. The export volume to Turkey has decreased significantly, and part of the export volume has shifted to other countries [74]. 3.4.4 PTA Balance Sheet Analysis - The peak season for polyester is not expected to be strong. In October, there may be a small supply - demand gap if maintenance plans are implemented. Starting from November, demand is expected to decline seasonally, and PTA prices are expected to be weak. Processing fees are expected to remain under pressure, and attention should be paid to macro - policies [84]. 3.5 Polyester Demand Analysis 3.5.1 Start - up Performance - The peak season for polyester is not strong. Although there is a marginal improvement in downstream demand, high坯布 inventories suppress terminal purchasing. Filament and staple fiber start - up rates are already high, with limited room for further increase. Bottle - chip production load has been low, and attention should be paid to potential load - increasing plans. In the fourth quarter, demand is expected to improve in October but weaken seasonally starting from November, with average loads of 91.5%, 90%, and 89% from October to December [87]. 3.5.2 Macro - demand - In terms of domestic consumption, from January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.6%. Textile and clothing consumption grew at a low speed, with clothing retail sales increasing by 2.2% and textile and clothing products increasing by 2.9% year - on - year [103]. - In terms of exports, in the first three quarters of 2025, textile and clothing exports showed low - speed growth. Affected by trade disputes and macro - policies, export growth has been under pressure. In the first quarter, exports increased significantly, but after April, exports weakened due to the uncertainty of macro - expectations [106].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The PTA industry is expected to see a cyclical bottoming out, with leading companies discussing coordinated production cuts to improve supply-demand dynamics [27][28] - The domestic PTA capacity has rapidly expanded from 46.69 million tons in 2019 to 84.28 million tons in 2024, with a CAGR of 12.5% [27] - The report highlights the potential for a new cyclical upturn in the PTA market, driven by the exit of older, high-cost production capacities and a stabilization in domestic and international textile demand [28][29] Market Performance - The basic chemical sector underperformed the market, with the industry index declining by 1% during the week of September 19-26, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.2% [15][20] - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has increased by 22.3%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 8 percentage points [15][21] Key News and Company Announcements - Recent discussions among leading PTA companies regarding coordinated production cuts are expected to enhance industry self-discipline and avoid disorderly competition [26][27] - Xinxiang Chemical Fiber announced a planned shutdown of 31,200 tons of viscose filament capacity for maintenance starting October 1, 2025, which is anticipated to tighten supply in the viscose filament market [26][29] Price and Margin Analysis - The report notes that the price difference for PTA has narrowed to within 200 RMB/ton, indicating significant pressure on profitability for many companies [27] - The viscose filament industry is expected to see price increases driven by seasonal demand and coordinated actions among leading companies [29] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., and Xinfonming, which are well-positioned to benefit from the expected improvements in the PTA market [28][29] - For viscose filament, attention is drawn to Xinxiang Chemical Fiber and Jilin Chemical Fiber, which may experience profit elasticity due to potential price increases [29]

南华期货PX-TA产业周报 ——"反内卷"情绪复苏，估值低位反弹 戴一帆（投资咨询资格证号：Z0015428 ） 周嘉伟（期货从业资格证号：F03133676） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年9月28日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 PX-TA近期在"化工反内卷"情绪复苏与需求边际好转带动下价格低位反弹，但后续来看，聚酯旺季高度难 言期待，预计主要以季节性阶段性走强为主，聚酯开工上长丝短纤已提至高位，继续提负空间有限，聚酯负 荷高点仍依赖瓶片开工表现。供应端来看，近期PTA检修计划公布较多，若后续兑现，PX-TA结构性矛盾近端 12月之前将得到缓解，因此PTA加工费近期走扩。但格局上PTA偏过剩格局预期压制PTA加工费修复力度，结 构性矛盾仍需PTA工厂的额外检修量来缓解，加工费扩张幅度有限。总体而言，近期在商品情绪不振压制下 PX-TA产业链绝对价格承压严重，继续压缩空间较为有限，后续进入十月终端需求与情绪预计延续边际好 转，同时宏观预期影响力度或大于基本面悲观预期的压制力度；在操作上，可考虑谨慎试多，或通过做扩TA- SC价差表达；加工费方面，TA01盘面加工 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the ongoing efforts in the chemical industry to combat irrational competition and regulate industry order, particularly focusing on glyphosate market issues such as low prices and poor quality [1] - The China Pesticide Industry Association will hold a meeting on October 12 in Shanghai to discuss the latest progress on international standards for glyphosate and outline future work [1] - As of September 26, 2025, the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) increased by 0.68%, with notable stock performances including Xin Feng Ming (603225) up 10.02% and Tongkun Co., Ltd. (601233) up 7.30% [1] Group 2 - The chemical ETF (159870) closely tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, which consists of seven sub-indices reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in related sub-industries [2] - The chemical industry is currently experiencing a weak overall performance, influenced by a new capacity cycle and weak demand, although some sub-industries, like lubricants, have exceeded expectations [1] - Investment opportunities are suggested in areas such as glyphosate, fertilizers, import substitution, domestic demand, and high-dividend assets [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the basic chemical sector has shown a decline of 1.33% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.89 percentage points [6][19] - Key companies to focus on include Wanhua Chemical, Yangnong Chemical, Hengli Petrochemical, and Hualu Hengsheng, with a specific interest in agricultural chemicals and technology sectors such as liquid cooling and PCB supply chains [5] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the basic chemical sector is at 4048.88, with a weekly high of 4123.45 and a low of 2721.92 [2] Price Movements - Major price increases were observed in products such as liquid chlorine (up 22.93%), dichloromethane (up 19.44%), and bismuth ingots (up 12.39%) [9][25] - Conversely, prices for vitamin E decreased by 10.00%, and other products like β-methyl naphthalene and trichloro-sucrose also saw significant declines [10][27] Stock Performance - Notable stock performances included significant gains for companies like Kaimete Gas (up 28.62%) and Guangdong Hongda (up 22.93%), while companies like Runyang Technology and Wankai New Materials experienced declines of 11.48% and 10.42%, respectively [7][22] Key Company Ratings - Wanhua Chemical is rated "Buy" with a closing price of 65.3 and a market cap of 204.45 billion [12] - Yangnong Chemical is also rated "Buy" with a closing price of 71.2 and a market cap of 28.86 billion [12] - Other companies such as Meihua Biological and Bailong Chuangyuan remain unrated [12]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the chemical industry, particularly addressing the issue of "anti-involution" and the need for policy changes to enhance product quality and phase out outdated production capacity [1][3][16]. Core Insights and Arguments - The Central Financial Committee's meeting emphasizes the need to govern low-price disorderly competition, indicating potential policy changes aimed at improving product quality and promoting the exit of outdated capacity [1][3]. - Historical cases show that industry self-discipline (e.g., in the potassium fertilizer and dye industries) and capacity clearance (e.g., in TMA and soda ash industries) are effective ways to combat market involution, significantly boosting product prices and related company stock prices [1][4][5]. - Environmental and energy consumption policies have a significant impact on chemical production, with examples such as the refrigerant quota system leading to substantial price increases for R32 and R134A, benefiting related listed companies [1][6]. - The chromium salt industry has seen a reduction in the number of companies due to environmental restrictions, leading to increased industry concentration and rising profit margins for leading companies like Zhenhua [1][7]. - The DMF market has experienced a supply contraction due to major producers halting production, resulting in significant price increases and improved performance for related companies [1][8]. - Glyphosate prices are highly sensitive to supply-side disruptions, with environmental inspections and adverse weather conditions causing significant price fluctuations, impacting the performance of related companies [1][10]. Additional Important Content - The chemical industry is expected to experience a supply-demand resonance by 2026, with anticipated benefits from Federal Reserve interest rate cuts favoring exports, while foreign capital exit and domestic capital expenditure slowdown will lead to supply reductions [2][16]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring sub-industries that have been in prolonged downturns and may see supply reductions and quality improvements, such as PVC in the real estate chain and spandex in the textile chain [15][16]. - Recommendations include focusing on industries identified for elimination and restriction by the National Development and Reform Commission, as these are likely to be influenced by policy changes [16]. - The chemical industry is seen as a key area for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, with various policies aimed at promoting green transformation [11][12]. - The report suggests that 2025 will be a foundational year for policy implementation, with 2026 expected to be a year of policy execution, leading to potential capacity exits or reductions that could improve supply-demand relationships [16]. Investment Recommendations - Suggested sub-industries for investment include organic silicon, glyphosate, and industrial silicon, as well as companies like Xingfa Group and Xinfengming [16][17]. - The refrigerant industry is highlighted as a successful case of self-discipline under political constraints, with significant price increases and profit improvements for companies like Juhua and Sanmei [17]. - The report advises early positioning in the market to capitalize on upcoming investment opportunities before prices rise significantly [16].

Group 1: Report Summary - Report title: Polyester Industry Risk Management Daily - New Capacity Rumor of Early Launch, Sharp Decline under Concentrated Short Allocation [1] - Date: September 2, 2025 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Volatility - Price range forecast for ethylene glycol (monthly): 4200 - 4600, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 11.30%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 7.9% [2] - Price range forecast for PX (monthly): 6500 - 7400, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 12.41%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 24.8% [2] - Price range forecast for PTA (monthly): 4400 - 5300, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 12.21%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 17.0% [2] - Price range forecast for bottle chips (monthly): 5800 - 6500, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 9.55%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 7.4% [2] Group 3: Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and concern about ethylene glycol price decline, with long spot exposure, short EG2601 futures (25% hedging ratio, entry range: 4450 - 4550), buy EG2510P4300 put options and sell EG2510C4400 call options (50% hedging ratio for put options, entry range: 10 - 20; 25 - 40 for call options) [2] Procurement Management - For low procurement standing inventory and intention to purchase based on orders, with short spot exposure, buy EG2601 futures (50% hedging ratio, entry range: 4250 - 4350), sell EG2510P4300 put options (75% hedging ratio, entry range: 30 - 50) [2] Group 4: Core Contradictions - Recently, ethylene glycol has limited fundamental drivers. Affected by the rumor of new device early launch, it became a concentrated short allocation and weakened. Although the pattern remains in a stocking trend, it is expected to have large upward elasticity when bullish drivers appear. Currently, it oscillates in the range of 4250 - 4500, and it is recommended to go long on dips or sell the 10 - contract 4250 put [3] Group 5: Bullish Factors - This week's planned arrival is 11.01 tons, relatively small. Next Monday, port inventory is expected to decrease by about 1.5 tons, and spot liquidity is expected to tighten further [5] - Due to the Houthi armed attack on a cruise ship in the northern Red Sea, oil prices rose in the afternoon, but the cost - end support was limited, and EG rebounded slightly and then fell again [5] Group 6: Bearish Factors - There is a market rumor that the new 800,000 - ton ethylene glycol capacity of Yulong will be launched in September. If true, it will run at a low load in September and add an additional 50,000 - 60,000 tons in October [6] - The terminal demand of weaving has declined recently, with limited new orders. Coupled with the continuous high temperature in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the loom operation rate has decreased slightly [6] - Due to poor production efficiency and order - receiving situation, bottle chip factories have cancelled their production increase plans, and the polyester operation rate in September is highly restricted [6] Group 7: Price and Spread Data - Various prices and spreads of polyester - related products such as Brent crude oil, naphtha, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., including daily and weekly changes, are presented in the polyester daily report tables [9][10] Group 8: Processing Fee and Profit Data - Processing fees and profits of products such as gasoline reforming spread, aromatics reforming spread, POY, DTY, etc., including daily and weekly changes, are presented in the polyester daily report tables [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation, but look for long opportunities on dips as the peak season approaches [1] - PP: Bearish continuation, but look for long opportunities on short - term pullbacks at low absolute prices [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation, short - term weak and volatile, be cautious about shorting [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [2] - MEG: Cautiously bullish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish, but look for long opportunities on dips for the 01 contract [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [3] - Glass: Cautiously bearish [3] - Soda ash: Cautiously bearish [3] Core Views - Crude oil: The consumption peak season is ending, supply surplus pressure is rising, and the oil price trend is downward. Short - term geopolitical risks are uncertain, causing price fluctuations. Focus on the break - even point of new U.S. shale oil wells around $60 [1][7]. - LPG: The cost side weakens, and LPG is under short - term pressure. It mainly follows the oil price, and the valuation is neutral [1][13]. - L: As the peak season in September approaches, supply and demand will turn strong. Plan to restart some devices, and the demand for agricultural films is increasing. Look for long opportunities on dips [1][19]. - PP: The supply is under pressure due to device restart and new capacity release. The peak - season demand starts, and the inventory declines. The supply - demand is loose in the medium - term, but the low absolute price provides support. Look for long opportunities on short - term pullbacks [1][24]. - PVC: The social inventory is accumulating rapidly, the market is volatile, and the supply is expected to increase. The export may slow down, and there is inventory pressure in the industrial chain. Short - term weak and volatile, be cautious about shorting [1][28]. - PX: The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, but the macro - environment is expected to be loose. Short - term PX is expected to be strong. Hold long positions and look for buying opportunities on dips [1][31]. - PTA: The supply is under pressure due to device maintenance and new capacity release, but the demand shows signs of recovery. The supply - demand is in tight balance in August - September and is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter. Look for long opportunities on dips [2][35]. - MEG: The domestic devices increase the load slightly, and overseas devices change little. The demand is improving, and the inventory is low. Cautiously bullish, hold long positions and look for buying opportunities on dips [2][38]. - Methanol: The supply pressure increases as the devices restart, and the demand is weak. The social inventory is accumulating. The cost support weakens. Hold short positions at high levels and look for long opportunities on dips for the 01 contract [2][41]. - Urea: The supply is expected to be loose as new devices are put into production. The domestic demand is weak, but the export is good. The inventory is high. Cautiously bearish, hold long positions in the 01 contract cautiously and look for shorting opportunities on rallies [2][46]. - Asphalt: The oil price has room to decline, the raw material supply is sufficient, and the spot price in Shandong is falling. The supply increases, and the demand decreases. Look for short opportunities with light positions [3]. - Glass: The supply - demand is loose, the enterprise inventory is decreasing from a high level, but the inventory of traders in Shahe is increasing. The supply is under pressure, and the demand support is insufficient. Wait and see [3]. - Soda ash: The spot trading in Shahe is average, the price is falling, and the basis is strengthening. The enterprise inventory is decreasing from a high level. The supply is expected to remain high, and the demand is mostly for rigid needs. Short on rallies [3]. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: On August 29, WTI decreased by 0.91%, Brent decreased by 0.74%, and SC increased by 0.37% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: In June, U.S. crude oil production reached a record high. As of August 29, the number of active U.S. oil rigs increased. As of August 20, India's crude oil imports decreased. As of August 22, U.S. commercial crude inventory decreased, and strategic reserves increased [8]. - **Strategy**: Lightly short. Focus on the $60 break - even point of new shale oil wells. For SC, focus on the range of [480 - 490] [9]. LPG - **Market Review**: On August 29, the PG main contract closed at 4366 yuan/ton, down 1.27%. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4540, 4481, and 4610 yuan/ton respectively [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The price follows the oil price. As of August 29, the number of warehouse receipts decreased. The supply increased slightly, and the demand of some downstream industries decreased. The refinery inventory increased, and the port inventory decreased [13]. - **Strategy**: Lightly short. For PG, focus on the range of [4300 - 4400] [14]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7287 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/day. The spot price of Ningxia Coal in North China was 7190 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/day, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 398 [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The futures and spot prices both fell, and the basis strengthened. As September approaches, the supply and demand will turn strong. Some devices plan to restart, and the demand for agricultural films is increasing. Pay attention to the inventory reduction rhythm [19]. - **Strategy**: Look for long opportunities on dips. For L, focus on the range of [7200 - 7350] [19]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6974 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/day. The spot price of East China drawstring was 6938 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/day, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1130 [23]. - **Fundamentals**: The warehouse receipts were cancelled at a high level, the futures and spot prices both fell, and the basis strengthened. The supply is under pressure due to device restart and new capacity release. The peak - season demand starts, and the inventory declines. The supply - demand is loose in the medium - term, but the low absolute price provides support [24]. - **Strategy**: Look for long opportunities on short - term pullbacks at low absolute prices. For PP, focus on the range of [6900 - 7000] [24]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4907 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/day. The spot price in Changzhou was 4700 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 571 [27]. - **Fundamentals**: The social inventory is accumulating rapidly, the market is volatile, and the supply is expected to increase. The export may slow down, and there is inventory pressure in the industrial chain [28]. - **Strategy**: Short - term weak and volatile, be cautious about shorting. For V, focus on the range of [4750 - 4900] [28]. PX - **Market Review**: On August 29, the PX spot price was 7014 yuan/ton (+125), and the PX11 contract closed at 6966 yuan/ton (+8). The trading volume of the main contract decreased, and the open interest decreased [31]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic and overseas devices change little. The demand of PTA is weak but expected to improve. The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and the inventory is high. The macro - environment is expected to be loose [31]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions, look for buying opportunities on dips, and sell put options. For PX511, focus on the range of [6840 - 6940] [32]. PTA - **Market Review**: On August 29, the PTA spot price in East China was 4740 yuan/ton (-35), and the TA01 contract closed at 4784 yuan/ton (-8). The spot and basis weakened. The trading volume and open interest of the main contract decreased [34]. - **Fundamentals**: The PTA processing fee is low, and many devices are under maintenance. The demand is improving, and the inventory is slightly reduced but still high. The supply - demand is in tight balance in August - September and is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [35]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions cautiously and look for buying opportunities on dips. For TA01, focus on the range of [4770 - 4830] [36]. MEG - **Market Review**: On August 29, the MEG spot price in East China was 4512 yuan/ton (-6), and the EG01 contract closed at 4474 yuan/ton (+1). The trading volume of the main contract decreased, and the open interest increased [38]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic devices increase the load slightly, and overseas devices change little. The demand is improving, and the inventory is low. The cost support exists [38]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions and look for buying opportunities on dips. For EG01, focus on the range of [4440 - 4485] [39]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 29, the methanol spot price in East China was 2266 yuan/ton (-12), and the main 01 contract closed at 2361 yuan/ton (-12). The trading volume of the main contract decreased, and the open interest increased [40]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply pressure increases as the devices restart, and the demand is weak. The social inventory is accumulating, and the cost support weakens [41]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions at high levels, sell call options for the 01 contract, and look for long opportunities on dips for the 01 contract. For MA01, focus on the range of [2335 - 2375] [43]. Urea - **Market Review**: On August 29, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1720 yuan/ton (+10), and the main contract closed at 1746 yuan/ton (-7). The trading volume of the main contract decreased, and the open interest decreased [45]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is expected to be loose as new devices are put into production. The domestic demand is weak, but the export is good. The inventory is high, and the cost support weakens [46]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions in the 01 contract cautiously and look for shorting opportunities on rallies [2].