中信证券研报称， 化工板块目前主要围绕三大主线进行交易：1）储能需求带动产业链景气度提升，上 游锂电等材料供需格局有望重塑，重点推荐新能源相关的材料标的、六氟磷酸锂、磷酸铁及磷酸铁锂产 业链；2）化工反内卷持续加码，多行业发起行业自律，化工品价格有望底部回暖；3）化工品行业自身 高景气，主营业务有望保持高增长。 ...

人民财讯11月19日电，中信证券研报称，化工板块目前主要围绕三大主线进行交易：1)储能需求带动产 业链景气度提升，上游锂电等材料供需格局有望重塑，重点推荐新能源相关的材料标的、六氟磷酸锂、 磷酸铁及磷酸铁锂产业链；2)化工"反内卷"持续加码，多行业发起行业自律，化工品价格有望底部回 暖；3)化工品行业自身高景气，主营业务有望保持高增长。 ...

Group 1 - The chemical sector is experiencing a counter-cyclical rise, with the chemical ETF (159870) increasing by 1.54% [1] - The peak of capital expenditure in the chemical industry has passed, and both domestic and international demand are bottoming out, indicating a transition to a right-side turning point [1] - The driving factors for the counter-cyclical trend include controlling new projects, reducing existing capacity, and managing processes [1] Group 2 - The current chemical market cycle differs from previous cycles in 2016 and 2020, with higher industry operating rates but lower profitability [2] - The shift from anti-monopoly to anti-involution reflects the industry's struggles, particularly among state-owned enterprises facing significant losses [2] - The rapid increase in industry concentration is primarily due to the expansion of leading companies, enhancing their influence and market power [2] Group 3 - As of October 31, 2025, the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) has seen significant gains, with top stocks like Salt Lake Shares (000792) and Hengli Petrochemical (600346) rising by 6.90% and 5.50% respectively [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index account for 44.83% of the index [3]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector is experiencing a "anti-involution" self-discipline movement, leading to improved supply-demand dynamics and potential investment opportunities as the industry recovers from prolonged losses [1][2] Group 1: Industry Actions - Various segments within the chemical sector are actively pursuing self-discipline actions, such as polysilicon leading companies forming a consortium to store capacity, caprolactam reducing production to support prices, and the organic silicon industry promoting self-regulation [1][2] - The polysilicon sector plans to establish a fund of approximately 70 billion yuan to eliminate excess capacity and address accumulated industry debts, which is expected to drive up silicon material prices [2] Group 2: Market Conditions - The chemical industry has been in a bottoming phase for over two years, with profitability at historical lows, but new capacity investments are nearing completion, indicating a potential turning point by 2026 [1] - The organic silicon industry has seen continuous improvement in supply-demand conditions this year, with expectations for further enhancement next year, as previous negative factors have been largely mitigated [2] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The chemical sector presents left-side layout opportunities, particularly in leading companies with cost advantages and reasonable valuations in segments like soda ash, coal chemical, and titanium dioxide, which are characterized by high energy consumption and a significant proportion of outdated capacity [2]

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical ETF (159731) has seen a 0.48% increase, with significant gains in stocks such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petroleum, and Rongsheng Petrochemical, indicating a positive trend in the sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The latest scale of the petrochemical ETF (159731) reached 167 million yuan, with a total of 198 million shares, both hitting record highs [1] - The chemical sector is experiencing a "de-involution" trend, particularly in the silicon chemical sector, where leading polysilicon companies plan to form a consortium to store production capacity, potentially leading to a 700 billion yuan fund aimed at increasing silicon material prices [1] Group 2: Regulatory Impact - The Conference of the Parties to the Minamata Convention on Mercury concluded on November 7 in Geneva, Switzerland, which will phase out mercury chloride catalysts in acetylene-based PVC over the next five years, benefiting the chlor-alkali industry [1] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The ongoing "de-involution" may accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity and orderly expansion of high-end capacity, positively impacting multiple sub-sectors within the chemical industry [1] - Guohai Securities notes that the Chinese chemical industry has abundant net cash flow from operating activities, and a slowdown in global chemical capacity expansion could significantly enhance potential dividend yields, transforming the industry from a "money-consuming beast" to a "money-making tree" [1] - The petrochemical ETF (159731) and its linked funds closely track the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, with the basic chemical industry accounting for 60.85% and the oil and petrochemical industry for 32.16%, highlighting the long-term value of the industry under the support of "de-involution" policies [1]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on lithium hexafluorophosphate and phosphorus chemical sectors due to their positive outlook [1][5]. Core Insights - The chemical sector saw a 3.54% increase in the first week of November, underperforming the Shanghai A-share index by 2.45 percentage points [2][11]. - Key stocks that performed well include Qing Shui Yuan (+47.78%), Fo Si Technology (+33.38%), and Chengxing Co. (+24.63%) [2][11]. - The report highlights the benefits of rising prices in lithium hexafluorophosphate for companies like Duofu and Shenzhen New Star, and the high demand in the phosphorus chemical sector for Yuntianhua [5]. Industry Performance - The chemical industry had 25 sub-sectors increase in value, with the top five being phosphate fertilizers (+18.15%), phosphorus chemicals and phosphates (+13.61%), and inorganic salts (+12.12%) [3][15]. - The dynamic PE for the chemical sector is reported at 22.57 times, significantly higher than the average PE of 11.23 times since 2015 [2][11]. Price and Margin Trends - The top five products with the highest weekly price increases include folic acid (+20%), nitric acid (+10.43%), and sulfur (+9.95%) [4][18]. - The report also notes significant price drops for liquid chlorine (-34%) and butadiene (-7.69%) [4][18]. - The price margin for sodium tripolyphosphate increased by 27.63%, while the margin for propylene (methanol-based) saw a drastic decrease of 826% [4][38]. Inventory Changes - Significant inventory changes were noted, with polyester filament showing a decrease of 26.81% and epoxy propane increasing by 8.53% [5][60]. Recommendations - The report maintains a recommendation for companies benefiting from the price increase of lithium hexafluorophosphate and those in the phosphorus chemical sector [5].

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector is experiencing a significant upward trend, with the sub-index showing a 32% increase from July 1 to November 7, indicating a recovery in industry sentiment and pricing power [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The CSI sub-index for the chemical industry rose by 2.48% as of the midday close on November 10, with several stocks, including Luxi Chemical, hitting the daily limit [1]. - The Tianhong CSI Sub-Index Chemical Industry ETF has begun fundraising, with a period from November 10 to November 21, covering 50 major stocks in the chemical sector [1]. Group 2: Price Trends - Prices for various chemical products, such as electrolyte and lithium hexafluorophosphate, have rebounded since August, with significant increases of 19.08% and 141.38% respectively [2]. - The price of electrolyte (ternary cylindrical) reached 20,600 CNY/ton on November 7, while lithium hexafluorophosphate was priced at 119,000 CNY/ton [2]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The chemical sector is focusing on three main trading lines: 1) Increased demand for energy storage materials, 2) Industry self-discipline leading to price recovery, and 3) Sustained high growth in core business areas [2]. - The overall recovery in the midstream chemical industry is gradual, with profitability at a low point but expected to improve due to supply-side adjustments and policy guidance [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights three main trading themes in the chemical sector [1] Group 2 - The first theme is the boost in industry sentiment driven by energy storage demand, with a reshaping of the supply-demand landscape for upstream lithium battery materials, recommending materials related to new energy [1] - The second theme focuses on the ongoing "anti-involution" in the chemical industry, where multiple sectors are initiating self-discipline, leading to a potential recovery in chemical product prices from their bottom [1] - The third theme indicates that the chemical industry itself is experiencing high prosperity, with core business expected to maintain high growth [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the chemical industry [11] Core Insights - The chemical industry achieved a revenue of 1,947.86 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.1%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 115.78 billion yuan, up 4.4% year-on-year [2][18] - In Q1-Q3 2025, 50.0% of the 30 chemical sub-industries reported year-on-year growth, increasing to 56.7% in Q3 2025 [2][28] - The report highlights a gradual recovery in the industry, with capital expenditures declining by 16.9% and 2.7% in 2024 and 2025 respectively, indicating a slowdown in expansion cycles [2][18] Summary by Sections Overall Operations - The chemical industry experienced a slight revenue increase with a profit growth rate surpassing revenue growth [18] - The gross profit margin for the industry was 16.8%, a year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points [18] - The report notes a continued downturn in the domestic real estate market and a slow recovery in consumption [2][18] Key Sub-Industries - **Fluorochemical**: Revenue reached 32.53 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 19.7% and net profit up 155.6% [9][41] - **Phosphate Chemical**: Revenue was 82.38 billion yuan, down 4.0% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 8.0% to 7.55 billion yuan [49][50] - **Potash Fertilizer**: Revenue grew by 13.1% to 20.77 billion yuan, with net profit rising 57.6% to 9.44 billion yuan [9] - **Pesticides**: Revenue reached 124.65 billion yuan, up 5.6%, with net profit increasing by 131.2% to 6.38 billion yuan [9] - **Soda Ash**: Revenue fell by 15.7% to 30.16 billion yuan, with net profit down 71.5% to 0.99 billion yuan [9] - **Polyurethane**: Revenue decreased by 1.9% to 163.35 billion yuan, with net profit down 16.5% to 9.51 billion yuan [9] - **Titanium Dioxide**: Revenue was 32.92 billion yuan, down 4.2%, with net profit down 46.3% to 1.74 billion yuan [9] - **Polyester Filament**: Revenue decreased by 5.0% to 118.94 billion yuan, but net profit increased by 38.0% to 2.42 billion yuan [9] - **Additives**: Revenue grew by 3.8% to 89.06 billion yuan, with net profit up 30.0% to 12.35 billion yuan [9] - **Civil Explosives**: Revenue increased by 16.6% to 48.83 billion yuan, with net profit up 8.2% to 3.60 billion yuan [9] - **Tires**: Revenue grew by 10.7% to 119.98 billion yuan, but net profit decreased by 17.3% to 9.89 billion yuan [9] - **Electronic Chemicals**: Revenue reached 52.97 billion yuan, up 13.1%, with net profit increasing by 22.4% to 6.05 billion yuan [9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests actively positioning in the chemical sector, highlighting cyclical recovery and potential growth in various sub-industries [10][39]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the basic chemical industry is "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The basic chemical industry is currently under pressure due to global trade sentiment, with a focus on cyclical bottoming and potential recovery in leading companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Yangnong Chemical, Hengli Petrochemical, and Hualu Hengsheng [4][5] - The basic chemical sector has experienced a decline of 5.83% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.61 percentage points [5][18] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the basic chemical sector is 3951.07, with a 52-week high of 4195.72 and a low of 3081.91 [1] Market Performance - The basic chemical sector has underperformed the CSI 300 index year-to-date, with a decline of 18.96 percentage points compared to the index's increase of 33.31% [18] - This week, the sector's performance was marked by significant fluctuations, with notable gainers including Sanfu Co. (up 33.17%) and Chengxing Co. (up 25.12%) [6][18] Price Movements - Key products in the lithium battery materials sector have seen price increases, with liquid chlorine rising by 184.91% and lithium cobalt oxide by 19.74% [8][23] - Conversely, R22 prices have dropped significantly by 51.52% [9][25] Key Companies and Investment Ratings - Wanhua Chemical: Buy rating, closing price at 61.5, market cap of 192.56 billion, 2025E EPS of 135.5 [11] - Yangnong Chemical: Buy rating, closing price at 68.8, market cap of 27.89 billion, 2025E EPS of 13.9 [11] - Hengli Petrochemical: Buy rating, closing price at 24.6, market cap of 52.29 billion, 2025E EPS of 37.3 [11]