Core Viewpoint - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices have been raised for the seventh time this year, with an increase of 125 yuan per ton for gasoline and 120 yuan per ton for diesel, effective from November 10, 2025 [2] Price Impact - The price increase translates to an additional 0.10 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel, meaning filling a 50L tank will cost an extra 5 yuan [5] - For a vehicle running 2,000 kilometers per month with an average fuel consumption of 8L per 100 kilometers, the fuel cost will increase by approximately 7 yuan before the next price adjustment [5] - In the logistics sector, a heavy truck running 10,000 kilometers per month with a fuel consumption of 38L per 100 kilometers will see an increase in fuel costs of about 177 yuan before the next price adjustment [5] Price Trends - Since the beginning of the year, domestic refined oil prices have undergone 22 adjustments, resulting in a net decrease of 620 yuan per ton for gasoline and 595 yuan per ton for diesel compared to the beginning of the year [6] - The last price increase occurred on July 1, indicating a four-month gap before the current adjustment [6] Market Dynamics - International oil prices have been in a downward trend, influenced by concerns over oversupply due to OPEC+ potentially increasing production and rising U.S. oil inventories [6][8] - Despite the recent price increase, the overall market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations of continued fluctuations in international oil prices [8] - OPEC+ has confirmed a slight increase in production for December but has paused plans for further increases in the first quarter of next year due to supply concerns [8]

Core Insights - OPEC+ is expected to discuss a plan for a slight increase in oil production by 137,000 barrels per day during a key member meeting this weekend [1] - The organization is gradually restoring previously suspended production of 1.66 million barrels per day to regain its market share in the global oil market [1] - Global oil prices remain volatile due to signs of oversupply, weak demand, and new sanctions imposed by the U.S. on major OPEC+ member Russia [1] Production Plans - The upcoming video meeting on November 2 will focus on the third monthly increase in production [1] - A media survey indicated that 9 out of 10 oil traders, refiners, and analysts expect OPEC+ to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day, with one predicting a larger increase [1] Market Dynamics - The decision to restart production increases is driven by Saudi Arabia's desire to reclaim market share lost to U.S. shale oil competitors [2] - Political considerations are also influencing OPEC+'s decisions, particularly with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman scheduled to visit the White House on November 18 [2] - The U.S. government's sanctions on Russia's largest oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, are anticipated to impact oil prices, as these companies account for nearly half of Russia's oil exports [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "volatile" [1][2][3][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - Oil prices are facing complex event-driven factors during the holiday. OPEC+ may increase production, and the US government shutdown issue and non - farm data may impact demand expectations. Saudi Arabia may raise crude oil prices for Asian buyers in November. It is recommended that investors participate with light positions [1]. - For fuel oil, recent drone attacks in Ukraine and seasonal refinery maintenance in Russia may affect supply. Domestic imports and refinery feed demand may support prices. Prices may fluctuate with oil prices, and light - position operation is advised [2]. - In the case of asphalt, the planned production in October is expected to be the highest for the year, which may limit price increases. Light - position operation is recommended [2]. - Regarding polyester, pay attention to new capacity scales and release rhythms, as well as the performance of the "Golden September and Silver October" season and overseas orders. Anti - dumping investigations may change the logistics of some suppliers [2][3]. - For rubber, adverse weather may affect production, and trade barriers may limit trade flows. Attention should be paid to tariff policies and cost - end price fluctuations [3]. - In the methanol market, the focus is on the start - up of Iranian plants. The recovery of port demand may compress MTO profits. Light - position operation is recommended to control risks [6]. - For polyolefins, although supply pressure is high, external demand can supplement domestic demand, and prices may fluctuate with oil prices. Light - position operation is recommended [6][8]. - PVC is restricted by high inventory, and the 10 - month important meeting may cause market fluctuations. Light - position operation is recommended [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices dropped significantly. OPEC+ may increase production by at least 137,000 barrels per day on October 5. Excessive production increase will be bearish for prices. The US government shutdown and non - farm data may impact demand. Saudi Arabia may raise November prices for Asian buyers. Oil prices are volatile, and light - position participation is advised [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rose slightly on Monday. Drone attacks and refinery maintenance may affect supply. Domestic imports and refinery demand may support prices. Prices may follow oil price fluctuations, and light - position operation is recommended [2]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract rose on Monday. The planned production in October is expected to be the highest for the year, which may limit price increases. Light - position operation is recommended [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601, EG2601, and PX futures rose slightly. Pay attention to new capacity and demand. Anti - dumping investigations may change supplier logistics [2][3]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices fell on Monday. Adverse weather may affect production, and trade barriers may limit trade flows. Pay attention to tariff policies and cost - end prices [3]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices are affected by the start - up of Iranian plants and port demand. The recovery of port demand may compress MTO profits. Light - position operation is recommended [6]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin prices are affected by profit and demand. Although supply pressure is high, external demand can supplement domestic demand. Prices may fluctuate with oil prices, and light - position operation is recommended [6][8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: PVC prices are restricted by high inventory. The 10 - month important meeting may cause market fluctuations. Light - position operation is recommended [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on September 30, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes compared with previous days, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9]. 3.3 Market News - OPEC+ may approve a new round of crude oil production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day on October 5 to regain market share [13]. - A preliminary survey shows that US crude oil and gasoline inventories are expected to increase last week, while distillate inventories may decline. API and EIA will release inventory reports [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, etc. [15][16][17][19][20][22][23][24][26][27][28][29] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc., including historical data from 2021 - 2025 [30][32][36][39][42][43] 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of different contracts for various products, like fuel oil, asphalt, etc., including historical data [45][47][50][53][57][59] 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - It presents the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc., including historical data [61][66][67][68] 3.4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the production profit charts of some products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [71] 4. Research Team Members - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over ten years of experience in futures derivatives research [78]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry [79]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, with achievements in research and media contributions [80]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading [81]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher on September 29, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.15%, the S&P 500 up 0.26%, and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.48% [1] - Major tech stocks showed mixed results, with Nvidia rising over 2%, Amazon up over 1%, and Broadcom down nearly 2% [1] - Storage concept stocks collectively rose, with Seagate Technology up 5.35%, Micron Technology up 4.22%, and Western Digital up 9.23% [1] Chinese Stocks - Popular Chinese stocks generally increased, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising 2.03% [2] - Notable gains included Bilibili, Alibaba, and New Oriental, each up over 4%, while Li Auto and JD.com rose over 3% [2] Middle East Developments - The Israeli shekel rose nearly 2% following President Trump's announcement of a "20-point plan" to end the Gaza conflict, which was agreed upon by Israel [3] - The plan includes an immediate ceasefire, the return of hostages within 72 hours, and the release of nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners by Israel [5] - Analysts express skepticism about the feasibility of achieving peace in Gaza, particularly regarding Hamas's role in future governance [5] Oil Market Dynamics - WTI crude oil futures experienced a significant drop of 4% intraday, marking the largest decline since June, closing at $63.45 per barrel [6] - The decline is attributed to easing Middle East tensions and indications that OPEC+ may decide to increase production in November [6] - RBC Capital Markets analysts predict that OPEC+ is likely to decide on an increase of 137,000 barrels per day at the upcoming meeting, although actual increases may be limited due to production capacity constraints among member countries [6][7] Future Oil Supply Outlook - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a record oversupply of crude oil by 2026 as OPEC+ continues to restore production alongside non-OPEC competitors [7] - Goldman Sachs predicts that Brent crude oil prices may fall to the mid-$50 range next year [7]

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ is likely to approve a new round of oil production increases of at least 137,000 barrels per day in the upcoming meeting, aiming to regain market share as oil prices continue to rise [1] Group 1: Production Adjustments - Since April, OPEC+ has abandoned its production cut strategy, increasing production quotas by over 2.5 million barrels per day, which accounts for approximately 2.4% of global demand [1] - The eight member countries of OPEC+ plan to fully cancel a voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day by the end of September and have initiated the process to cancel another cut of 1.65 million barrels per day starting in October [3] - OPEC+ has approved the UAE to increase its production by 300,000 barrels per day from April to September [3] Group 2: Market Impact - Oil prices have fluctuated between $60 and $70 per barrel since OPEC began increasing production in April, with a recent spike to over $70 per barrel due to disruptions in Russian energy infrastructure caused by drone attacks [2] - OPEC+ members collectively implemented a peak production cut of 5.85 million barrels per day, which included voluntary cuts and reductions from member countries [2] Group 3: Upcoming Meetings - An online meeting is scheduled for October 5, where OPEC+ will determine the production plan for November, with discussions indicating an increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day [1][3] - The final decision regarding the production increase has not yet been finalized, as many OPEC+ members are already operating at full capacity [3]

Group 1: Core Insights - The article highlights a significant decline in U.S. gasoline consumption following the summer travel season, leading to a drop in international crude oil prices, with NYMEX WTI futures falling below $65 per barrel from a high of $74.25 per barrel on June 23 [1] - The current supply-demand situation indicates a potential for substantial crude oil accumulation, exacerbating market oversupply pressures due to increased production from OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries, while demand shows signs of slowing down [1][8] - Geopolitical crises and the cost structures of oil-producing countries will influence future crude oil output, suggesting that the surplus may be lower than expected, with investment demand providing some support for oil prices in a stagflation environment [1] Group 2: Production Trends - Major oil-producing countries are actively increasing production, with OPEC+ accelerating the restoration of previously halted production capacities, potentially reversing 1.66 million barrels per day of cuts within a year if they maintain a monthly increase of approximately 137,000 barrels per day [2] - In July, OPEC's crude oil production rose by 262,000 barrels per day compared to June, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE contributing significantly to this increase [2] - Non-OPEC countries are also expected to add substantial new production capacity, with projects in Brazil, Guyana, and Norway contributing a combined increase of over 100,000 barrels per day [3] Group 3: Uncertainties in Output - Despite OPEC+'s intentions to capture market share through increased production, actual output remains uncertain due to factors such as remaining idle capacity, geopolitical issues, and production costs [4] - OPEC+ currently has about 5 million barrels per day of spare capacity, with Saudi Arabia holding approximately 2.4 million barrels per day, but the execution of production increases has varied among member countries [4] - From April to August, OPEC+ members collectively increased production by about 1.16 million barrels per day, with an execution rate of approximately 61%, indicating discrepancies in adherence to production plans [4] Group 4: Demand Weakness - Global crude oil demand is expected to weaken significantly by 2025, with a slowdown in growth rates observed in the second quarter, leading to a continuous increase in global oil inventories [7] - As of June, global oil inventories rose for the fifth consecutive month, reaching a record high of 7.836 billion barrels, with U.S. liquid hydrocarbons inventory showing a notable increase [7] - The risk of weakened U.S. oil demand is heightened, particularly as economic indicators suggest a potential stagflation scenario, with a notable decline in U.S. gasoline consumption following the summer travel season [7][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that COSCO Shipping Energy's stock price increased by nearly 10% following OPEC+'s announcement to raise oil production by 137,000 barrels per day in October, indicating a potential easing of the second layer of production cuts earlier than planned [1] - The increase in oil production is expected to boost demand for oil transportation, as noted by Guotai Junan Securities, which reaffirms that the demand for oil shipping will continue to grow [1] - The article mentions that while OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, the benefits may not be immediately realized due to factors such as Middle Eastern production being redirected for domestic consumption and reduced shipping distances due to shifts in U.S. Gulf exports to Europe [1] Group 2 - The expectation is that the benefits of increased production will gradually manifest in the second half of the year, particularly aiding the performance in Q4, as the industry remains optimistic about the outlook [1] - The article also points out that the end of the Middle Eastern domestic demand season and increased exports from South America could further support the anticipated growth in oil shipping demand [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the domestic energy sector is experiencing a downward trend in crude oil prices, with the main contract fluctuating between 480.7 and 487.7 yuan per barrel, reflecting a decline of 1.85% [1] - Analysts from Huishang Futures believe that short-term oil prices have strong support due to a stable macro environment and the ongoing destocking process, but mid-term risks are rising due to the upcoming demand off-season and OPEC+'s planned production increase of 1.66 million barrels per day [1] - Zhonghui Futures notes that the end of the peak consumption season and OPEC+'s expansion cycle are likely to keep crude oil prices under pressure, with a focus on the outcomes of the upcoming OPEC+ meetings [1] Group 2 - Nanhua Futures highlights the uncertainty surrounding OPEC+'s decision to continue increasing production, which could significantly impact oil price volatility next week; a continuation of production increases may further suppress prices, while a pause could lead to limited rebounds [2] - The geopolitical risks, particularly the tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, are identified as short-term disturbances that could influence oil prices, with potential fluctuations of $5 to $10 if conflicts escalate [2] - The overall market sentiment is currently negative, with both macroeconomic and fundamental factors indicating bearish trends, necessitating close monitoring of future developments [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not mention an industry investment rating [1] 2. Core View - Crude oil production increase drives a price callback, with a short - term recommendation to wait and see [1] - The trend strength of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral stance [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Global Benchmark Crude Oil Price Dynamics - Brent (ICE) at $69.14/bbl, up $0.99, with a $3.55 premium to WTI; pre - OPEC+ meeting short - covering and peak North Sea oilfield maintenance [2] - WTI (NYMEX) at $65.59/bbl, up $1.58, with Midland at a $1.10 discount; US strategic reserve repurchase starts and Cushing inventory drops 2.8 million barrels weekly [2] - Dubai (Platts) at $71.72/bbl, up $0.84, with a $0.28 premium to Oman; strong Middle - East refinery feed demand and a record high spot premium for November shipments [2] - Murban (ADNOC) at $70.1/bbl, down $1.02, with an official selling price cut of $1.02 to respond to Asian buyers switching to US West Coast crude [2] - Urals (CIF) at $57.91/bbl, up $0.54, at a $11.23 discount to Brent; Indian refineries buy at low prices and Baltic shipments increase 15% month - on - month [2] 3.2 Product Oil Market Price and Dynamics - 92 - octane gasoline (Singapore) has a crack spread of $22/bbl, FOB price of $83.27, and VLCC freight from Persian Gulf to Japan at w64.5 (+15%) [3] - 0.5% low - sulfur marine fuel has a crack spread of $6.93/bbl, FOB price of $492.08, and LR2 freight from Singapore to East China at $2.35m (+12%) [3] - 10ppm diesel has a crack spread of $19/bbl, FOB price of $88.12, and Suezmax freight from Middle - East to West Africa at w107.5 [3] - 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil has a crack spread of - $2.25/bbl, FOB price of $426, and Aframax freight from Singapore to Australia at $1.9m [3] 3.3 Cross - Regional Comparison - Brent - WTI spread is $3.55/bbl due to Cushing inventory decline, compared to an August average of $2.8; US Gulf export facility congestion and closed European arbitrage window [4] - Dubai - Oman spread is $0.28/bbl due to Middle - East OSP cuts, compared to an August average of $0.35; Saudi cuts Asian long - term contracts and intense spot market competition [4] - ESPO - Dubai spread is - $1.41/bbl due to increased Russian exports, compared to an August average of - $0.9; Russian oil companies' new strategy to avoid price limits [4] - Midland - Cushing spread is $1.1/bbl due to pipeline capacity constraints, compared to an August average of $0.85; EPIC pipeline failure leads to over 5 million barrels of backlog in the Permian Basin [4] 3.4 Key Spreads - The closure of Sudan's Heglig oilfield affects Nile Blend crude, with a $2.1/bbl price fluctuation expected to last 2 weeks and a daily production cut of 150,000 barrels [4] - Houthi attacks on tankers affect Middle - East medium - grade crude, with a $1.35/bbl immediate price impact and a 300% increase in Red Sea shipping insurance premiums [4] - INE Shanghai warehouse sanctions affect SC crude oil futures, with a - $3.2/bbl price impact, a 40% drop in open interest, and challenges to the delivery mechanism [4] - US EPIC pipeline expansion is expected to affect WTI Midland, with a - $0.75/bbl impact and a 300,000 - barrel - per - day increase in Permian - to - Gulf of Mexico capacity [4] 3.5突发事件或潜在影响因素 - Cosmo Oil's 100,000 - b/d maintenance from August 27 to early October affects Sakai crude, leading to Japan's gasoline inventory dropping to a 5 - year low and emergency reserve release [5] - Sinopec Zhenhai's 200,000 - b/d maintenance postponed to end - September affects ESPO crude, with Zhoushan commercial crude inventory hitting a record high [5] - BP Rotterdam's 180,000 - b/d maintenance from September 15 to November 10 affects North Sea Forties, widening the European diesel crack spread by $1.2/bbl [5] - Reliance's 660,000 - b/d planned October maintenance affects Middle - East heavy crude, with India's early stockpiling narrowing the Middle - East fuel oil discount [6] 3.6 Other Market News - Citi slightly lowers its 2026 Brent crude average price forecast to $62/bbl (previously $65/bbl) [6] - US API crude inventory data for the week ending August 29: actual 622,000 barrels (expected - 3.4 million, previous - 974,000); Cushing crude inventory actual 2.063 million barrels (previous - 497,000) [8] - White House officials clarify Trump's phone - call reference [8] - Russia will supply oil to Brunei via the Northeast Arctic Passage for the first time [8] - Russia's September western port oil exports are expected to drop 6% to about 1.9 million barrels per day [8] - Trump administration hopes Europe stops buying Russian oil and joins sanctions [8] - OPEC+ will consider further production increases at a Sunday meeting to regain market share, or may pause production increases [8]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint OPEC+ plans to increase daily crude oil production by 548,000 barrels in September, and there is a possibility of further production increases in the fourth quarter. With the ongoing geopolitical issues such as the US warning to Russia and the continuous attacks between Russia and Ukraine, the crude oil market is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [2][29]. 3. Summary of Relevant Sections 3.1 Market Review The crude oil market showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The SC2510 contract opened at 494, reached a high of 500, a low of 478, and closed at 485, with a weekly decline of 8.4 or 1.70% [3]. 3.2 Price Influence Factor Analysis - **OPEC**: In July 2025, OPEC+ total crude oil production averaged 41.94 million barrels per day, an increase of 335,000 barrels per day compared to June. OPEC+ has been increasing production for four consecutive months since April, with a cumulative increase of over 1.2 million barrels per day. On August 3, OPEC+ decided to further increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, completing the 2.2 million barrels per day supply recovery plan one year ahead of schedule. If the planned September production increase is implemented, the cumulative increase since April will reach 2.47 million barrels per day, close to 2.5% of global demand [5][6]. - **Russia**: In 2024, Russia's crude oil production was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). In July 2025, Russia's oil production increased by 98,000 barrels per day to 9.12 million barrels per day, 67,000 barrels per day higher than the OPEC+ plan. Traders expect India to increase its Russian oil imports by 10% - 20% in September compared to August. From January - May 2025, Russia's crude oil exports to China were 40.763 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12%. Russia plans to increase its annual crude oil supply to China to over 100 million tons, a growth of about 15% [7]. - **US**: As of the week ending August 22, 2025, US crude oil production was 13.439 million barrels per day, an increase of 57,000 barrels per day from the previous week. The EIA estimates that US crude oil production will reach a record high of 13.41 million barrels per day in 2025 and is expected to be 13.28 million barrels per day in 2026. The expected growth in US crude oil demand in 2025 is 130,000 barrels per day, and in 2026 it is 30,000 barrels per day [11]. - **Supply from the Americas**: OPEC has lowered its supply growth forecast for non - OPEC+ oil - producing countries, expecting an increase of about 630,000 barrels per day in 2026. The IEA has raised its 2025 global oil supply growth forecast to 2.5 million barrels per day, mainly due to OPEC+'s production increase decision. The EIA expects global oil production to be 105.4 million barrels per day in 2025 and 106.4 million barrels per day in 2026 [17]. - **Inventory**: As of April 2025, OECD's crude oil and liquid commercial inventories were 2.729 billion barrels, a decrease of 94.42 million barrels compared to the same period last year. As of the week ending August 22, 2025, US total crude oil inventory was 822 million barrels, a decrease of 1.616 million barrels from the previous week [18]. - **Consumption**: OPEC maintains its 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast at 1.29 million barrels per day and adjusts the 2026 forecast from 1.28 million barrels per day to 1.38 million barrels per day. The IEA has lowered its 2025 demand growth forecast to 680,000 barrels per day. As of the week ending August 22, 2025, US refinery crude oil processing volume was 16.88 million barrels per day, a decrease of 328,000 barrels per day from the previous week, and the refinery utilization rate was 94.60%, a decrease of 2.0 percentage points from the previous week [21]. 3.3 Market Outlook and Investment Strategy OPEC+ plans to increase daily crude oil production by 548,000 barrels in September, and there is a possibility of further production increases in the fourth quarter. With the ongoing geopolitical issues such as the US warning to Russia and the continuous attacks between Russia and Ukraine, the crude oil market is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [2][29].